Marcels Projections for 2009
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 15, 2008 1:33 PM CST
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Of particular note:
Millwood, 4.68 ERA, 161.6 IP
Padilla, 4.68 ERA, 157.5 IP
McCarthy, 4.29 ERA, 60.8 IP
Harrison, 4.42 ERA, 101.8 IP
Hurley 4.23 ERA, 72.3 IP
Feldman 4.61 ERA, 113.2 IP
Hamilton .297/.377/.518 (.895 OPS)
Davis .288/.352/.509 (.861 OPS)
Kinsler .288/.363 /.467 (.830 OPS)
Cruz .262/.333/.443 (.776 OPS)
Teagarden .282/.358/.505 (.863 OPS)
Saltalamacchia .273/.351/.421 (.772 OPS)
Ramirez .265/.352/.430 (.782 OPS)
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From here on out
I’m considering any projection system that gives all of our starters sub 5 ERAs worthless. It means they are over normalizing their stats.
only 8 out of 217 pitchers listed there had ERA’s 5.00 or above. That’s 3.6%. Umm… not realistic
To follow up
Johan Santana has a 3.48 on that system… unless I’m completely reading the spreadsheet wrong, there is somethign amiss with that analysis.
It predicts a league ERA of 4.40, and everyone in baseball to be +/- 1 from that. Its a decent way of projecting a population, but a bad way of projecting individuals.
Teagarden
Seriously? What on earth could make someone think he would have a higher OPS than Davis?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Yeah
if your system can’t factor his minor league numbers more effectively, you need to rework things.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 15, 2008 4:05 PM CST up reply actions
why is hurley only
pitching 72 innings with that heroic ERA!
i dont like these projections
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Nov 15, 2008 4:14 PM CST reply actions
Remember, Marcel is only a monkey.
http://www.tangotiger.net/marcel/
Obama thinks he is a good talker, but he is often undisciplined when he speaks. He needs to understand that as President, his words will be scrutinized and will have impact whether he intends it or not. In this regard, President Bush is an excellent model; Obama should take a lesson from his example. -- John Hinderacker
My goodness
Just think if we still had Johnny Danks to add to the rotation.
A Texas Designer's Map of the World
Brittle Brandon McCarthy
will just be the same brittle injury prone flop ass pitcher we can’t count on to fill a rotation spot.
It’s really a depressing situation every time I think of the fact we traded the southpaw great Johnny Dank’s.
You have to admit as a Rangers fan that by getting rid of the lefty John Dank’s was clearly a fucked up mistake by JD. I will never ever forgive this fuck up by JD
A Texas Designer's Map of the World
by hurlerhurley on Nov 15, 2008 6:44 PM CST up reply actions
you dumb motherfucker
you realize that at the time the trade was made that overall, more people liked mccarthy than danks
you also probably thought that galarraga was a good pitcher who would have success away from TBiA also, right?
getthefuckoverit
or just go to another fucking board if you want to bitch about that trade any more. i for one am past tired of it
it happened how many years ago, also danks only got good AFTER they showed him how to throw a cutter, he was fucking shitty his first year with the white sox, again if you thought he would be this good your the only one.
also, hurly is not that good. hate to break it to you, but he isnt.
if you and sharky mated the result would, without a doubt, be steal home.
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 16, 2008 1:02 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
so because the fans liked it, it doesn't matter that it was one of the worst trades in Ranger history?
are the fans the GM?
How about
the poll of GMs and scouts that said McCarthy would be the biggest breakout pitcher in baseball? Or are those just fans who don’t know anything?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
at the time it was trading danks for about as much value as you could get…mccarthy vs danks, check out his minorleague stats vs danks minor league stats
mccarthy had major league success, danks had not had AAA success
mccarthy was a very good buy when we got him…we maximized danks value
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 16, 2008 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
so what, a GM should know how to trade
i might be a little more lenient if he had not have made so many other horrible trades in his 3 years here.
1-McCarthy and Danks
2-Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez, so bad that its x2.
3-Soriano
4-Galarraga
5-JD allowing himself to be hired and/or jennings, broussard signings
galarraga was roster fodder, was it an ill advised trade – yes but if you thought he would be even average at the major league level you should be out playing the lottery instead of posting on LSB
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 17, 2008 5:45 PM CST up reply actions
was it a bad trade?
and so was getting madrigal a lottery pick too? or the sidney ponson sigining?
Please do tell
I can only think of one truly horrible trade and two others that you could call bad.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
heh which part?
the you dumb motherfucker or about mccarthy?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 16, 2008 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
the motherfucker part
That’s the response that should be made to all these people constantly bringing up these past moves.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
lol
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 16, 2008 5:25 PM CST up reply actions
Marcel and James
must be big believers in Mike Maddux.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
Lets see
Millwood, McCarthy, Harrison and Nippert with the ulcers.
Padilla and Gabbard with the breakdowns. :)
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
Again
This guy don’t have any starters throwing any innings. It doesn’t matter if the ERA projections are if that’s all the innings the Rangers will get from the top guys. You absolutely have to have a couple of guys right at or exceed the 200 inning mark.
~664 innings
from 6 starters…..yeah, about that bully…
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
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