Tuesday a.m.
Not a whole lot this morning. Jeff Wilson takes his look at Mike Maddux, including this from Nolan Ryan:
Ryan said Maddux is the right fit for the Rangers because he has a knack for feeling out a pitcher’s personality and finding the right route to help him realize his potential..."I like a pitching coach who relates well to his pitchers and understands that each one of them is different," Ryan said. "Dealing with 12 different individuals, you have to try to get them to rise to the occasion and try to get consistency out of them."
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85 comments
Comments
Its this kind of thing that makes me wonder..
..why people here doubt Nolan’s management of people skills and think he is the wrong guy for the job? Everything I’ve ever seen/read/heard out of Nolan reflects a pragmatic understanding of what it takes to succeed in an endeavor— not just throwing a ball 97 mph.
by mattrpav on Nov 18, 2008 10:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
That quote
may be the single most reassuring thing I’ve read coming from Ryan.
You must understand, though, people don’t doubt Ryan’s skills or think he’s wrong for the job. People react negatively because many Ranger fans simple assumed he had great skills and was the right person for the job just because he’s Nolan Ryan. He is slowly but surely proving to be a good hire and I am now pretty well convinced he will be good for the Rangers for more than public relations.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 10:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I can attest to certain people's negative reactions.
My original claims that Ryan’s presence would change the direction and methodologies of the Rangers were attacked from nearly everyone hereon, including Adam and the Regulars.
Age-bias has a lot to do with it, in my opinion. Wisdom is an acquired trait.
Smile when you call me Beat Weed!
by Clueless on Nov 18, 2008 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Clueless bias
has a ton to do with it too.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Nov 18, 2008 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As does cluelessness.
Thanks for accentuating that fact.
Smile when you call me Beat Weed!
by Clueless on Nov 18, 2008 1:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Age has nothing to do withit. If Nolan had experience to match his age, no way anyone would have criticized it.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 18, 2008 1:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How did Ryan change the direction of the Rangers?
Were we not a team building from within before he got the job? Did we not have a low end payroll before he got the job that is going to stay the same next year?
And until his methodologies like sprints and throwing batting practice start translating into Ws then he hasn’t done anything. Maybe he should focus on the primary job of Team President which is to get butts in the seats and tell Mr Hicks that you don’t raise season ticket prices after so many straight losing seasons. Maybe he should be doing that instead of trying to get everybody in our organization to be freak of nature HOF fireballers.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 18, 2008 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
On the subject...
the other primary reason that there was resentment towards Nolan Ryan was that it would take credit away from Jon Daniels. Very much so.
Smile when you call me Beat Weed!
by Clueless on Nov 18, 2008 1:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And rightfully so
JD, for all his mistakes early in his tenure, has built this organization into one that has the potential to be not just a one year wonder but a perennial championship contender. And we are not far from seeing the very early returns of that. he deserves all the congratualtions we can give him once this thing completes its renovation.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 18, 2008 1:08 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think
most of what you’re referring to are fears from people going in. I certainly had them, but quite a bit of what I worried about hasn’t born out at all, and at this point, I’m a pretty big supporter of Nolan’s in his role. The whole conditioning thing sort of bumps against silly, but for the most part all I’ve seen is good common sense from him, thankfully. And I think that’s becoming more and more what people think of him in general here.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 18, 2008 10:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if AJM
is coming around on Nolan yet. Initially, it seemed Adam had a hard time accepting that Nolan could actually be good for the frachise.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 18, 2008 11:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
See my post above
I think Adam was reacting to the feeling that sports starts are somehow qualified just because they played well, not against Ryan himself. Ryan needs to be judged on his actions and effectiveness, not his Hall of Fame playing status. So far, so good.
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by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 11:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
The move had prototypical Hicks stupidity written all over it, whether Nolan happened just by coincidence to be right for it or not. He was completely unproven; just think if someone hired a guy whose name Hicks didn’t recognize, whose history had been running operations for minor league teams. And the only two things that Hicks has ever done with his hires is either promote the assistant or look for a flashy, iconic name, most of whom have little experience in management.
When Gainey left he hired his assistant. When he fired him, he hired his assistant and Brett Hull.
When he tried to fire Liverpool’s popular manager (even though he didn’t have the ability to), he tried to hire Jurgen Klinsmann, probably one of two or three managers he’s ever heard of, and mostly because the guy is flashy and is very familiar to Americans.
When he fired Melvin, he hired John Hart (and had a goofy setup like the Stars now have) and when he left, he promoted his assistant.
In light of Hull and Klinsmann, I think you had to fear that his call to hire Nolan went no deeper than those two boneheaded moves. I think he just got lucky with Nolan, personally.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 18, 2008 11:33 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Good
breakdown.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Nov 18, 2008 11:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent take
We fear Hicks much more than anyone else in the Ranger organization.
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by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 12:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nolan
That quote is wonderful to hear. However you have to realize all we have been fed so far is the reason Nolan wanted Maddux was because he worked in Round Rock for the team Nolan owned. Even though Nolan had absolutely no say as to who the players were on that team or how they were taught, that all came from the Astros organization. hearing Nolan speak like that of Maddux is very very good to hear.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 18, 2008 10:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well said...
…I rarely agree with you but I have say you put a lot of the things I was thinking into words.
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
by Chad Crudup on Nov 18, 2008 2:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The quote doesn’t impress me either way, but neither did Nolan’s conditioning program.
Nolan’s role is get butts in seats, and design the org’s pitching development system. Outside of that I doubt he does more than suggest pitching personnel moves to JD.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 18, 2008 10:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's largely true
but I do think that he probably has a pretty big hand in the overall strategy of things, including the way they appraoch an offseason. My guess is that the three of them have an ongoing conversation right now, and that Nolan and Hicks are probably equal parts influential (which I guess you could take as fairly insignificant from a strategy standpoint, but at least a part of the planning).
by Brett Perryman on Nov 18, 2008 11:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I still contend
that Nolan is more of a help to JD than a hindrance. Hicks is just loony enough of an owner to make poor decisions and JD probably isn’t powerful enough to change his mind. But Hicks will listen to Nolan. If Nolan says "we’ve done the math, the team should (raise payroll to sign Sheets/re-sign Bradley/make a big risky trade/etc.), Hicks will listen to him. I’m not sure JD has that much influence over the guy with the money.
by JBImaknee on Nov 18, 2008 11:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And if there is indeed a 3-headed monster
at the top, that’s not a bad thing at all. Ryan is a buffer between Hicks and the team. And those who say Ryan is “babysitting” Daniels or some other such nonsense ignore that fact that many teams have a similar setup with some combination of presidents, vps, GMs or other titles share the overall responsibility for running the organization.
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by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 12:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
That is really the best service Nolan seems to serve, as a buffer between baseball operations and Hicks’ ADD zaniness.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 18, 2008 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone have access to an org. chart for the Rangers?
It would be interesting to see who reports to whom and said responsibilities.
Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador
by Parman on Nov 18, 2008 3:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Great site
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 18, 2008 3:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well usually
The GM handles all personnel issues with regards to the organization and the Team President handles the business side of things. They generally only converge when it comes to free agents and the budget. Otherwise the TP focuses on marketing, ticket prices, attendance, renovations to the ballpark, etc. The GM is the one who would handle coaches, players, scouts, etc.
Normally both positions would report to the owner on their respective areas of focus.
How it appears the rangers are working out is JD is working underneath Nolan. Coaching hires and decisions are passed by Nolan and Nolan is directing them in some cases (Washington almost getting fired in April, Maddux) and nolan is the sole party reporting to Hicks. That part may be best because Nolans legacy carries alot of weight with Hicks as opposed to JDs pedigree. JD has an Ivy League education but because Nolan played the game his “insight” seems to bear more weight and he seems to be able to rationalize to Hicks.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 18, 2008 3:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
First time post, go easy on me
But it seems like many are looking at Nolan’s position as a figurehead. I mean, and I hope I’m not the only one to think this, but I don’t go to Ranger games to see Nolan. I go to games to see the players. What Nolan does on the side doesn’t really affect whether I go to the game or not.
Every teams goal is to put butts in seats, so Nolan’s job ain’t that difference. Now, I’m still on the fence about Nolan’s hire, but at least with his conditioning program, its showing to the fans that the Rangers know their concern about pitching and are working on it. Honestly, this excites common fans (like thoses on the DMN blog, who bitch and whine all the time to spend money) but it would be good to get these pitchers use to the conditions of Texas, and get them ready.
And on Maddux, I like that it looks like he is going to take a different approach to pitchers than Conner. Conner, it seems, wanted the pitchers to pitch the way He wanted to, not pitching to the strength of the pitchers. Maddux probably sees this and wants to work on the strengths of the pitchers, basically what made them successful before. But we really can’t see that until Feb. though
In Smoak We Trust
by Smoak Some on Nov 18, 2008 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice first post
But I think you are misunderstanding things. We, or at least I and I believe quite a few others, don’t view Nolan as just a figurehead. He did have legitimate success owning a minor league franchise. He made it a fun experience for fans and families to come to a ballgame. But what he didn’t have any control over whatsoever is personnel. None. Just like whoever owns the Roughriders, or OKC, or Bakersfield, or hickory doesn’t have any control over who plays for their team Nolan had zero control over who put on a Round Rock jersey. That was all handled by the major league parent organization. Nolan also didn’t have any influence on how that ML club developed their players. Each team has their own ways of developing their prospects in their minor league system.
So when Nolan Ryan comes in and seemingly steps into a role where he is trying to implement his way of training and his way of this and his way of that it does irk me as a Ranger fan. There are numerous examples of great players being complete idiots in front office or coaching positions. Isiah Thomas, Micheal Jordan, Larry Bird, Wayne Gretzky, etc. Those were some of the all time greats in their respective sports but when put in a leadership position their teams did not succeed. And I do realize some players do have success as coaches/front office personnel. But when Nolan comes in and starts saying “Back in my day” or “This is how I did it” it makes me cringe because not everybody is capable of being Nolan Ryan. Hell no one is capable of being Nolan Ryan.
The hire of Maddux was weird to me only because how it was reported. It was reported that they didn’t even interview him face to face and it was a Nolan driven decision. Im sorry but the team President shouldn’t be deciding who the pitching coach is and damn sure shouldn’t be doing so without even a face to face meeting.
Personally I think Nolans primary focus should be finding a way to get people to the stadium. Tell Tom Hicks to not raise season ticket prices after another sub 500 season. Start producing some television commercials where Nolan is urging fans to come out to the ballpark. Find a way to get all the OF wall panels to match to make the ballpark look nicer. If after all that he has time to go work with some of the younger pitchers thats fine. Nobody is going to turn down advice from a HOF player.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 18, 2008 6:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good Points
I completely understand, and its why I’m still on the fence on the hire. The good thing is is that he hasn’t done anything stupid yet, and yeah, the Maddux hire was weird how it was conducted, but it helps hearing from former players stating that Maddux is a good coach and knows what he’s doing. Now is Nolan tries to take control of the farm system and try and trade some players for a win now approach, then i’ll take up my pitchfork and go after him myself.
The figurehead comment is more directed at the common ranger fan, like the majority found at DMN or some at Rangers games. I have sat at games near Nolan and have seen and heard from more fans that were more interested with Nolan at the park then the players. It does bring fans down to the first base line to get close to Nolan though….
In Smoak We Trust
by Smoak Some on Nov 18, 2008 6:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Gammons
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3709231&name=gammons_peter
Also, expect Toronto to make good on its promise to Milton Bradley that he is the Blue Jays’ priority.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 18, 2008 10:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
this too
• One of Boston’s priorities is to get young, and don’t be surprised if the Red Sox move Coco Crisp for a reliever to allow Justin Masterson to start.
At this point my brain is a Rube Goldberg contraption turning all Boston news into hypotheses for Buchholz coming to Texas.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 18, 2008 10:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hah
I’ll play devil’s advocate and suggest that they view Buchholz as someone who needs a couple more months in AAA regardless, so getting Masterson in the rotation would help with that, and it would help them decide which role to go with for him in the future. But I’m certainly on board with anything that gets Buchholz to Arlington.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 18, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So you'll help fund my plan to kidnap him
Wipe his memories of Boston, give him plastic surgery to make him look like Doug Mathis and send a surgically altered Mathis to replace him in Boston?
"I would say that our gaping hole isn’t nearly as gaping as the A’s hole [was] or Mariner’s would be." - tyd3311
by lonestarJon on Nov 18, 2008 10:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not just that, I’d help fund the screenplay titled Face Off 2: Building A Rotation
by Brett Perryman on Nov 18, 2008 11:22 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Z
If that is the case would you do a Salty+Feliz for Buchholz? Which has more upside Feliz or Buchholz?
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 18, 2008 10:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think I would
Buchholz has more upside to me, but all of the bad things you guys are saying about him are at least enough to keep me from doing that.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 18, 2008 11:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh
Milton Bradley’s body + artificial turf… there’s an idea that don’t sound too good. Toronto must be planning to DH him if they sign him.
"I would say that our gaping hole isn’t nearly as gaping as the A’s hole [was] or Mariner’s would be." - tyd3311
by lonestarJon on Nov 18, 2008 10:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not believing anything Gammons says
until I see some proof that he has any legitimate news as opposed to planted rumors. I think at this point he’s just a stooge for a few GMs trying to push their agendas (and we know who those GMs are…)
by JBImaknee on Nov 18, 2008 11:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So...
Does that mean we’re not going to teach every pitcher in our system the same exact pitches?
by N41D on Nov 18, 2008 10:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Jerry Stackhouse
really does believe he is good.
“I play a lot of summer basketball,” he said. “When I see [Knicks players] Wilson Chandler, Quentin Richardson and Jamal Crawford scared to guard me in the summertime, but it’s not a matchup, a particular game that I should play in, then …”
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Nov 18, 2008 12:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
i read Jamey's patience-pep-talk yesterday...
but today I’m thinking: SOMEBODY MAKE SOME FREAKIN NEWS!
"Fielding isn't that important" - Save Us 11/11/08
by Haeger Champ on Nov 18, 2008 12:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
More Buchholz tangents
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2008/11/18/free-agent-prediction-fest/
Derek Lowe: The Red Sox chased him out of town in 2004 like he had stolen something. But Lowe pitched well for the Dodgers and cleaned up his act. Now he’s one of the most attractive free agents on the market thanks to his durability and postseason success. Prediction: Red Sox for three years and $45 million.
Dempster is going to speed things along with FA pitching: we now have the market floor.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 18, 2008 1:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
two other interesting notes from this link
Jason Varitek: Scott Boras has been doing some of his best spinning with this guy. At the GM Meetings, somebody asked Scott whether Varitek would want to go to a new team because he would have to learn a new pitching staff. "Jason Varitek doesn’t learn pitching staffs," Boras said without a pause. "He teaches them." Priceless. That said, Varitek needs the Sox and they need him. Prediction: Red Sox for two years and $23 million.
Ben Sheets: Here’s the ultimate risk/reward guy. He could be great, he could clutch his elbow at any time. Prediction: Cardinals for two years and $24 million with an option.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 18, 2008 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sheets
If he signs for anything close to that, I’d sure love it to be here.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 18, 2008 1:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sheets
That is a laughable prediction. Even if somehow (and I really, really doubt it) he signs for two years with an option, it sure as hell won’t be for $12 million per year. Try 2 years and $32-36 million with an option for at least $18 and a strong buyout.
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by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sheets seems curious… I want to agree with you, but what is his worst-case? For example, what if he’s more than a little sideways medically?
Granted, he’s not Mulder or Lieber, but might his medicals prevent any and all 4-year offers if they’re bad enough?
I think the actual worst-case is an incentive-laden 1-year deal.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 18, 2008 1:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Look at his numbers
The only reason to think that he won’t get a really nice deal is if his current condition is structurally worse than his usual state. Otherwise, he’s just too good for someone not to take the risk. Even if he does go down, insurance will help minimize the risk of large chunks of missed time.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 18, 2008 2:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OT: Happy Birthday
To former Lone Star Ball posting-great, blue glove lefty.

It's baseball. You don't always get what you want, and you don't always want what you get. --Ed Coffin
by txranger7 on Nov 18, 2008 1:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Those were the days...
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
by Chad Crudup on Nov 18, 2008 2:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Happy Bday BGL
You know that pic is kind of scary mechanics’ wise, no? It looks as if he’s almost throwing sidearm. I haven’t had the opportunity to see him pitch too much therefore I don’t know if he’s a 3/4 guy or what, but would that angle be an explanation for his arm troubles?
Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador
by Parman on Nov 18, 2008 4:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
but it looks like he has boobs
by Telegraph on Nov 18, 2008 6:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah.
It’s always scary to see a pic of a guy at certain points in his delivery, but that’s not particularly bad or anything.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
MVP votes are the new OBP.
by thedirkatron on Nov 19, 2008 3:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't post pics of him here.
Evan Grant will get so mad!
The 40 Trumps All!!!
MVP votes are the new OBP.
by thedirkatron on Nov 19, 2008 3:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Evan Grant is off
praying at his personal shrine to Michael Young.
Nolan Ryan is the Greatest Pitcher ever, because Google says so.
"BTW I’m officially welching ab03. Yeah I planned too all along, but I figured I’d try to get off the hook with double or nothing first."- Sharky
by DJCahill on Nov 19, 2008 9:01 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on Nov 19, 2008 10:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thou shalt
have no false Pedroias before Face.
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by t ball on Nov 19, 2008 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Someone needs to seriously start a collection
Of these little “t-ballisms” and write a fanpost or something.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on Nov 19, 2008 9:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OT: Marcels
I glanced at the Marcels projections for next year and found it interesting that Masterson is projected to have a much better 2009 than Buchholz, who was way down the list. FWIW.
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by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 1:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Those Marcels predictions
are pretty weak. Hurlerhurley could predict with better accuracy than those, I’d imagine.
by JBImaknee on Nov 18, 2008 1:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No better or worse
than the other systems out there. HH’s predictions look like this:
John Danks 22W, 1L, 0.79 ERA 300K, 22BB
Eric Hurley kicks ass, loves me som…
Then he stops to take a drink and doesn’t finish the projections for the other pitchers.
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by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
heh
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Nov 18, 2008 2:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
After HH sobers up
he will then go on a rant and spew out numbers for Chris Young.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 18, 2008 2:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Marcels
I disagree. From my understanding of the system (which I admit is limited to only a short amount of time reading it), I don’t like it. I think that its quantitatively shallow. My interpretation of what they do is perform regressions on players stats, normalize them to the population, and then basically claim that there is a 50% confidence that the stats will fall one way or another. In a way, its assuming that everything that causes noise within one players performance can cause noise in other players’ performances.
Now, I’ll admit my opinion is biased by my background since I model complex systems. You can understand general trends at a population level – as is being done in the Marcels system – but there is very little to be gained at the individual level. There is no “projecting” going on here – its just making a regression from their past numbers and adding noise. Since Masterson had good numbers last year and Buchholz didn’t, he’ll look better.
by JBImaknee on Nov 18, 2008 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You're right
but he admits as much every year when putting them out. It is simple and he doesn’t claim it’s any more than that. I don’t take them all that seriously, they’re just another set of numbers to enjoy.
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by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And as far as accuracy
the Marcels projections is pretty close in accuracy to the other well known systems out there, not too far off each year. If you have problem with Marcels, you probably have problems with all of them.
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by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well
you probably don’t see me posting other people’s projections very often for a reason… I think a little “I think so and so may hit .320 this year” is fun, but saying my world class algorithm will predict that doesn’t impress me at all.
I think statistical measures of players performances are excellent for assessing what they have done in the past, and I agree that the past does have predictive power for the future. But it has to done at a population level – I think one can use prediction systems to look at a team and estimate if they’ll be closer to 90 wins or 70. At a team level, much of the player-to-player noise cancels out. But at an individual level, you just can’t say much.
I don’t know if it is possible to improve any purely quantitative prediction method beyond this. Unless you can quantify qualitative circumstances as “injury-prone” or “is losing mph on his fastball,” you’ll have to distribute these random fluctuations as noise across the whole population. Which seems kind of like admitting defeat to me – saying “we can’t predict which of these guys will get injured, but at least one will, so we’ll lower the predicted home runs for all of them.” doesn’t do anything for me.
Just my take though.
by JBImaknee on Nov 18, 2008 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you have problems, too
Bring up Matt West '09
by Chase Irwin on Nov 18, 2008 9:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and even Marcels
could have predicted that…
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by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 11:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well yeah
All projection systems will have Masterson looking better in 2009. That doesn’t mean that they can represent reality.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 18, 2008 2:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Beyond their relative positions though
I was struck by how high Masterson ranked in comparison to established pitchers. In general, though, I agree it’s hard to take these things as more than a parlor game. I have to laugh at all the systems that have several Ranger starters with ERAs in the mid-4 range.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 18, 2008 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Athletic's owner on the 1st round of the playoffs.
“I’d make it one-game-and-you’re-out for the first series,” the Oakland Athletics owner said Wednesday. “It would be exciting. It would be great.”
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Nov 19, 2008 12:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
162 game season followed by a one game fucking playoff.
He needs to be lit on fire.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
MVP votes are the new OBP.
by thedirkatron on Nov 19, 2008 3:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And promptly tossed into oncoming traffic.
Bring up Matt West '09
by Chase Irwin on Nov 19, 2008 3:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
I knew your reaction would be harsh.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Nov 19, 2008 7:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Better yet
Seed a 30 team single elimination tourament to completely make the 162 game season meaningless.
Nolan Ryan is the Greatest Pitcher ever, because Google says so.
"BTW I’m officially welching ab03. Yeah I planned too all along, but I figured I’d try to get off the hook with double or nothing first."- Sharky
by DJCahill on Nov 20, 2008 8:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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