Heyman: Padilla and Millwood drawing interest
http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/25801
Apparently the Braves, who are looking for starting pitching and very weill might get outbid for the services of guys like Burnett and Lowe and/or not be willing to give up the pieces to land Peavy, have interest in both Millwood and Padilla. Other teams are metioned as well.
Personally I would be heavily in favor of dumping Millwood or Padilla if we don't have to eat salay. I would preter to get rid of Millwood, but I find it hard to believe we could get anything decent for him without having to eat part of his salary. Also, I wonder how realistic it would be to dump one of the two and go hard after Sheets with a 3 year, 48 million deal?
Thoughts?
1 recs |
164 comments
Comments
Just saw this on CNN/SI
If you can get decent value, go for it. We can always use prospects. We aren’t going to compete this year anyway. Get pitchers, pitchers and more pitchers. Get so many that it becomes a problem. :)
I'd love for part of the "new look" to be a return to the red uniforms of the 1990s. - Ian Kinsler
by ortonius on Nov 21, 2008 9:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure that 3 years, 48 million is exactly going hard.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 21, 2008 9:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
what would you...
classify as “going hard”? To me, dishing out a 3 year, 48 million dollar contract to a pitcher whose health is in question, is quite competitive of an offer. Considering the depth of starting pitching in this years FA class, I find it very hard to believe that he will get more than three years. 16 million a year for a high risk, high reward pitcher would be a good offer IMO. What do you think it would take to lure Sheets here? I couldn’t imagine a team offering say, a 4 year, 65 million dollar deal
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 9:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He'll ask for and get....
5 years.
by bdavison94 on Nov 21, 2008 9:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
bullshit
he will NOT get 5 guaranteed years. Burnett is coming off of a 220 inning season and he might get 5 years. No way Sheets gets that with a late season shoulder injury including the prior injuries he has had. 4 years max IMO
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 10:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No he won't get five
He might get four, and if he signs for three years, rather than one, I think that it will be for more than 16 mil. That is assuming that he’s not hurt right now, but if he’s hurt right now and that would come out in an exam, he won’t even get a big money contract at all, he’ll likely sign for one year. He’s just too good for a 16 million dollar contract if there isn’t big concern over his immediate health, imo.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 21, 2008 10:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
um
Carlos Silva got a 4 year, $48 million contract last off season. Granted, it was the M’s and they are stupid, but still, you are delusional if you think Sheets can be had for 3/$48.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
by trza on Nov 21, 2008 10:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I could see 3/57 with an easily-obtaining-if-healthy vesting option.
But that’s a lot of money for a mid-major like us to be throwing around.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 10:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if he gets 19 million a year
what will Lowe and Burnett get? 22? What about Sabathia? 25?
I have a hard time believing the market will swing that way this year.
by clark on Nov 21, 2008 11:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no way
3 years 48 million is no comparison to 4 and 48. Padilla is paid the same annual salary as Silva and they were each viewed as mid rotation starters. An injury prone POTENTIAL front line starter for 16 million is a perfectly reasonable contract.
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 10:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
the silva and zito contracts are not benchmarks
if anything, they are the reason those numbers will not be thrown around so freely this offseason for such marginal talent. they were both the product of a barren pitchers market and incredibly stupid FOs.
by clark on Nov 21, 2008 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d deal one, preferably Millwood, but not both.
It’d be surprising seeing something happen before dealing catching for a pitcher.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 21, 2008 9:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Millwood is much better than Padilla and could be brought back for one year if he pitches well this year.
I can’t understand for the life of me why anyone would want to dump Millwood over Padilla, unless we’re presuming the deal for Millwood will be equivalently stronger.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 10:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"Millwood is much better than Padilla"
explain yourself sir. I tend to believe Padilla edges Millwood.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 21, 2008 11:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I have. Many times.
I didn’t think anyone disputed it.
I’m shocked and disappointed at the anti-Millwood vitriol being spouted here.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i haven't spewed a bit...
about Millwood. I happen to think he was a decent signing. He’s been gutsy, to say the least. And mildly effective when healthy. However, if I could rid the Rangers of his contract, bring in a prospect, and increase the club’s chances of a FA P signing, I am all for it.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 21, 2008 11:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If he wasn't injured all the time
Yes I would say he is a good pitcher I have no problem with that but with all the injuries he is no good to the team. Thus making him a non entity.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 21, 2008 11:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's averaged 31+ starts per year.
He’s not perfect health wise, but virtually no pitcher ever is.
And for an 11-12mm per season FA pitcher he’s been every bit as effective as we could have reasonably hoped.
You certainly won’t get a pitcher like him for that price for next season (and with an attractive-to-the-team vesting option as well) in FA right now.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why dont you explain..
once more why you feel Millwood is better, because i feel you are in the minority with that thinking
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 11:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Check their stats.
Not just W/L and ERA, which are more team stats. Look at their ratios. I’ve had this argument before. Many agree with me. This just seems to be a nexus of Millhate tonight.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree to disagree
I feel that most would rather have Padilla over Millwood this year. To me, Padilla is easily the most consistent pitcher btwn the two
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 11:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree..
Milly will show up in great shape in ‘09 he’s already lost 15 lbs and plans on losing a lot more.
He’s going to get that 180 innings if it kills him othewise he loses out on that 11 million on the last year of his contract.
It would be interesting to see what would happen if he didn’t make it to 180.
Do you think the Rangers would have him back? I doubt it. That would speak volumes as to what they do or do not think of him.
Thanks Sarah Palin!!!
Because of your Hillbillie ass I won't be having turkey for Thanksgiving.
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 21, 2008 11:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Easily the most consistent?
He’s averaged fewer starts and fewer IP during all three of their years here and has had worse FIP’s and tRA’s all three years as well.
So, yah. I mean it’s not a crazy blowout for Millwood or anything, but I consider it a pretty clear victory.
I still don’t understand.
Flummoxed, you might say.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Millwood
Dirk, you feel good enough about his performance as a Ranger to have him the extra year? Cause if his peripherals are so good that his overall performance is dragged down by bad luck, maybe he’s going to get lucky and hit 180 IP this year.
It’s just one spot in the rotation, but do you not think better options will arise for 2010?
Vicente, who may be the inferior pitcher, has the team-friendlier contract. 2010’s an option.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 22, 2008 8:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If he hits 180 innings then I'd imagine we'd absolutely want him back on a one year 12mm deal, don't you think?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that depends on the develpoment of
Holland, Feliz, Hurley, Hunter, McCarthy, Feldman, Harrison, Nippert, and anyone else who’s name I’m forgetting. Sticking a guy into the bullpen because Millwood is taking up a space plus 12 million may not be ideal next year.
by Hull Fan on Nov 22, 2008 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
Jamey was talking about Lackey, we are surely hoping for a functional starter back for a catcher(s), and the arms currently developing…these might displace even a functional Millwood, and maybe Padilla too.
It’s a good problem, but he’s not an ace, he’s an aging back-end starter.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 22, 2008 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Millwood is much better than Padilla?
The Rangers apparently don’t think so.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 10:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was wondering when you were gonna chime in with the Millwood hate, Trizzle ;)
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty easy to explain
Millwood is supposed to be the better pitcher. Padilla has fared batter. It doesn’t require hate to recognize that. Besides, Padilla is the only Ranger pitcher on staff that opposing batters fear. Now granted, it’s health fear, but still …………….
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Nov 22, 2008 3:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well fear is fear
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Nov 22, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
the Coff has spoken!
stick a fork in the thread…it’s a done deal..lock it up!
Thanks Sarah Palin!!!
Because of your Hillbillie ass I won't be having turkey for Thanksgiving.
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 22, 2008 3:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If my 401k
can be of any help to the Rangers in helping eat some of the salary let me know. Well, what’s left of it that is…
I’d take the 40% whack if it got Millwood outta here.
Freddie King rules faces.
by Ryin A on Nov 21, 2008 9:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I know this would be unpopular with the fans but...
If you could get prospects back or close to major league ready players I say trade both and go head first into the youth movement and let them learn on the fly.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 21, 2008 9:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
not that i...
disagree, but the thing is that you run a pretty big risk in going with a rotation of, say Harrison, Hurley, MacCarthy, Feldman, Nippert (assuming we make no signings). None of these guys have proven to be able to handle a full seasons load, and 3 of the 5 have had injuries as recent as last year. I think it would make sense to have 1 of these 2 vets in there to hypothetically give you a decent 180-200 innings every 5th day to take some pressure off of the youngsters
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 9:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I see your point
If the Rangers were to keep one I would prefer it be Padillia then.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 21, 2008 9:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
concur
Thanks Sarah Palin!!!
Because of your Hillbillie ass I won't be having turkey for Thanksgiving.
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 21, 2008 9:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah...
agreed. Honestly at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if Millwood doesn’t throw another 200 inning season for the rest of his career. Between the two, there is no question that Padilla would be the one to keep. Unfortunately, I think he is the only one that could actually get some value in return and not force us to eat part of the contract. I can’t expect much of anything from Millwood these days, and I really do believe that his own inability to stay in shape has had a big part of his underperformance and injury problems.
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 9:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, the Millwood hate has officially boggled my mind at this point.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 10:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously?
Millwood sucks, but not only that, he is always out of shape and is anutter failure considering the expectations coming to texas
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 10:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
really?
hmm…
are you really defending Millwood? I’m not disrespectin’ here, guess I’m just wanting to know why…
Freddie King rules faces.
by Ryin A on Nov 21, 2008 11:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes. He's been very unlucky here.
Look at his peripherals and you’ll see that he’s actually been pretty good. His FIP has been very good two of the three years here (‘06 and ’08) and still LA the other (’07).
The injuries have been annoying, but he still pitched nearly 170 innings of 4.02 FIP baseball this year.
And I don’t give a flying fuck if he’s tubby, fwiw. That seems to be a common pejorative hurled about by the Millhaters. Sabathia is fat. I don’t give a crap about his fat%. If you’re saying the fatness is the root cause of the nagging injuries, then I can see it. But just because he’s got a gut doesn’t mean it’s automatically a strike against him.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I am with you man....
but you still trade who ever you the most for…
by laxtonto on Nov 21, 2008 11:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure if someone wanted to trade what I thought Millwood was worth, I'd be fine with dealing him.
But the tone of this thread seems to be “Dump Millwood just to get rid of his contract and hold on to Padzilla!”, which is a sentimony that I disagree with.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not going to argue your points
mainly bc I don’t understand what FIP is. I’ll check it out.
What I see is someone who wilts in the heat every year due to being out of shape. When you wilt in the heat you pop hammys/groins/what have ya. There are many causes for one to pull / pop muscles but being out of shape is #1. To me, showing up to camp not in shape is inexcusable.
If you make the most money on the staff and you want to be the leader, then you act like a leader. The majority of leaders lead by example, leading by example you work out in the offseason and show up to camp in tip-top shape, You lead the younger kids when you run drills and what not, you’re the first to finish. Another form of leading is you lead by excelling on the field…which he ain’t doing.
I get the fact that CC Sabathia is a tub, but he’s what, 28? Millwood is not 28 anymore, he needs to come to camp in shape, he should be able to crack walnuts with his teeth….mainly so he shuts people like me up. And if CC keeps crushing Frito chili pies then he’s gonna start having problems.
But that’s just me. I respect your argument, that’s just my pov.
For the record, I’m fat.
Freddie King rules faces.
by Ryin A on Nov 21, 2008 11:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
FIP is cool.
From THT glossary:
FIP (Link)
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.
Basically it’s a way of taking all the “luck” out of a pitcher’s performance and just grading him on the stuff he can control, meaning: Walks, Strikeouts, and Home Runs. (Often referred to as the Three True Outcomes, or TTO) Everything else is effected by fielders. A gapper that might a three run double for one team with a crappy CF’er would be an inning ending out for another team, etc, etc…
It’s not perfect, of course. There are some pretty glaring flaws in it. (Like, some guys really are better at induicng weak contact, groundballs, and things like infield flyballs which are almost always going to be outs, etc.)
But overall it’s a much more effective tool for predicting future performance than something like ERA, which is more of a team run prevention stat that anything.
There’s some really cool info about it on the web if you do a google search.
And tRA is prolly even better, imo. Google it if you get the time.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks man
I got nothin’ but time, I’ll check it out.
Freddie King rules faces.
by Ryin A on Nov 21, 2008 11:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
np
Here’s a great fanpost from over at Beyond the Boxscore (mandatory reading if you love monkeying with stats and looking at things from non-traditional angles) that explain tRA better than I ever could.
It doesn’t get into the formula itself, but you can find that here at Statcorner.com if you’re interesting in digging into the real meat of the thing.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 12:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Seems
tRA is much more complex, no? atleast it takes a few more factors into it than FIP does…
right or wrong?
Thanks for the lesson, this is why I started posting here, to learn this witchcraftery.
Freddie King rules faces.
by Ryin A on Nov 22, 2008 7:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
It assigns a value to each kind of outcome and attempts to come up with a defense neutral ERA-type number for each pitcher.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A fundamental problem with FIP
To interpret the stat the way that most do, there is an assumption that all the best pitchers in the league are “lucky” and most of the worst pitchers in the league are “unlucky”.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 10:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So you're going to tell me
…that three seasons have all been unlucky for him? I call bullshit on that one, stats be damned. Millwood gets hit hard.
That’s not to say he’s one of the worst pitchers in the league or even as bad as his ERA indicates. I don’t have a particular grudge against him. I’m disappointed, though. That’s going to happen when your favorite team signs a guy coming off an ERA title and suddenly he can’t pitch consistently.
Padilla usually doesn’t seem to get hit as hard. He’s still not all that good, but his stuff is quite a bit better. Neither pitcher is heads and shoulders above the other.
I would hope they keep them both. I’m not delusional…I do not think the Rangers will compete this year. But if things go right and these guys combine for 375 innings, then they may be competitive on a day-to-day basis. If you get really, really lucky they both eclipse the 200 ip mark, another guy steps up, and they’re a surprise team. There’s a slim chance, anyway. If you trade them there’s no chance, and the Rangers will have a horrible year. This is a team that’s not only collecting talent, it’s trying to move toward a goal. I’d be uncomfortable going backwards.
by Black Francis on Nov 22, 2008 10:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Even dirkatron’s favorite stat tra+ shows that Millwood wasn’t that much better than Padilla in 08. Millwood’s stuff has progressively gotten worse for the last 4 seasons while Padilla has seen a relatively slow decline in fastball velocity.
For me, they’re really about the same and I could not care less who gets traded as long as the other team takes back most of the salary and sends us a decent prospect or 2.
by jcir454 on Nov 22, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
re. "Millwood gets hit hard"
Your eyes don’t deceive you, he gets hit real hard. In fact, he had the worst line drive allowed percentage in baseball.
As far as I can tell, the whole “Millwood was just unlucky” argument is based on the fact that he had a high BABIP, but it seems to me that he was just getting rocked. The same defense was able to get outs at a much better rate for Padilla because he wasn’t giving up as many lasers to the gap.
Millwood’s line against was 312/361/462 and I don’t think you can assign that to luck IMO.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
wow a whopping 25.3 %
were line drives and that does lead all of baseball.
It wasn’t my imagination that they were literally tee ing off on him and suceeding a good part of the time.
that’s what fading high heat will get ya folks.
Thanks Sarah Palin!!!
Because of your Hillbillie ass I won't be having turkey for Thanksgiving.
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 22, 2008 12:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Every 3rd year
has now become every 4th year.
Bring up Matt West '09
by Chase Irwin on Nov 22, 2008 2:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL true dat...
so much for that theory.
Thanks Sarah Palin!!!
Because of your Hillbillie ass I won't be having turkey for Thanksgiving.
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 22, 2008 2:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
a guy that is consistently "unlucky"
might also be considered “not good”, just a matter of interpretation I guess.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 10:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay.
I guess all pitchers get the same treatment from their defenses.
We should probably just stick to ERA when trying to find the stat most indicative of true performance and as well as the stat that most closely predicts future outcomes.
No, W-L record.
Even better.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He hasn't been consistently unlucky
In 2005, with the Indians, he had a 3.75 FIP, a 4.10 tRA, and a 2.86 ERA. He was still a strong #2 starter that year, but he got very lucky and got very good defense to win the ERA title.
Overall, he has played for several poor defensive teams in recent years (in Texas and Philadelphia) While his ERA has moved up and down from year to year, his FIP and tRA+ are much more stable. He was a solid #2 starter through 2006. From 2007 until the present, he has been a #3/4 type starter and seems to have regressed a little bit with age.
I think you could make a fair argument that he might regress going forward, but I don’t think you can say that he has been a bad pitcher thus far. (or that we should disregard luck/defense/etc) He has been a pretty decent starter throughout his career and during his time with Texas. And he has had a better tRA, tRA+, and FIP than Padilla throughout the last three years. I’d put my money on Millwood being better again in 2009.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 22, 2008 1:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it seems silly to me
to call him unlucky when he allowed more line drives than anyone in baseball last year. I guess when he is pitching we could move a couple of the infielders out to the OF gaps and see if that might increase Millwood’s “luck” on balls hit in play.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
And he has almost the just about the same LD% as Josh Beckett. Other players near the top of that list include Danks, Mussina, Meche, Bannister, Garland, Eveland, and Baker. I don’t know about you, but I don’t see a strong correlation between LD% allowed and the quality of a pitcher. Seems pretty damn random.
I’d much rather look at stats that have a really clear correlation to a pitchers ability, like tRA, FIP, DIPS, and tTRA+.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 22, 2008 1:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
he has almost the same LD%*
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 22, 2008 1:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
line drive rate
I never said that it correlates to the quality of a pitcher, but I’d be willing to make a substantial bet that it correlates to BABIP. That just seems like common sense to me.
A guy that leads the league in line drives allowed is probably always going to have a high BABIP. My contention is that Millwood had a high BABIP because he allowed a lot of hitters to hit ropes, not because the defense mysteriously played less efficiently behind him, and not because he suffered from “bad luck”.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 2:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
LD% also doesn’t correlate very well with BABIP.
Also, it still seems that the calculations done by advanced statistics like FIP, tRA, tRA+, DIPS, and others are a better way to guesstimate how “lucky” a pitcher has been. (at least better than singling out line-drive percentage by itself). Nevertheless, I can see the value of looking at LD% in some situations.
Either way, I think we will inevitably agree to disagree.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 22, 2008 11:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if he Rangers could just void their contracts
I would be in favor of it. Neither of those guys will be Rangers in 2010, and if we’re not going to compete next year (which we’re not with our $65M payroll and the young pitchers not being ready yet), we might as well get them off the team (even for basically nothing) so that we can see who of McCarthy, Harrison, Hunter, Hurley, Nippert, Mendoza, Murray, and Feldman can contribute in 2010 and beyond.
In my view, both of these guys are like Sammy Sosa was 2 years ago…keeping us from being able to make decisions on players that may very well be worse yet are much cheaper.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
by willamos2 on Nov 21, 2008 9:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
unless the return is overwhelming
I wouldn’t deal both. Not sure you want to overwork all the young pitchers that are likely to be starting games in ’09.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 21, 2008 9:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
its interesting...
…because the only reasons to keep either of them around is we need an established veteran who will be dependable and someone to show the younger members of the staff what being a “front end” of the rotation pitcher is all about… but considering millwood has shown he isn’t a big fan of working out, though he’ll take the ball and pitch no matter whats wrong, and padilla prepares really well, but if he had a bad enchilada at lunch won’t take the mound, neither one of them has shown themselves to be dependable or leaders and i wouldn’t mind dumping them both and going with a 6 man starting rotation… considering one of the 6 is almost always going to be hurt anyway might as well call it that outta camp…
spin them off for anything that doesn’t involve us paying their salary this year…
and while you’re at it… let whoever is buying know we’ll throw michael young and his albatross of a contract in for FREE!
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Nov 21, 2008 9:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
the trainer stated that Millwood is not in shape but will ALWAYS take the ball and that Padilla is ALWAYS in shape but won’t take the ball if he isn’t feeling exactly 100%, not trying to get old school but a leader in the sense of the word is both. Atleast the type of leader we need to show the kids whatsup.
Freddie King rules faces.
by Ryin A on Nov 21, 2008 10:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well if that is the case
Millwood would be better served as a coach since he seems to be always hurt the past two years. Let him lead from the bench because I’m tired of seeing him take the ball hurt and sucking it up and getting hurt worse before he goes on the DL.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 21, 2008 10:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yah his FIP's the last three years have been terrible.
3.87, 4.55, 4.02.
Bill James has projected him to have a 4.05 FIP next season.
He’s terrible.
TERRIBLE!!!!!
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 10:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's fine...
But he needs to stay healthy to help this team something he hasn’t done the past two years.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 21, 2008 11:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I should add
Most of his injuries stem from him not being in shape so if you look at the whole and not seperate out certain numbers he has not been very good. Yes he had a good run down the strech when the Rangers were hanging around but what if he had started the year that way where would the rangers have been?
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 21, 2008 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So in-shape pitchers don't get hamstring strains?
How are you stating as fact that most of his injuries stem from him not being in shape?
What’s Rich Harden’s excuse then? That guy is physical freak.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Look if you are in shape
You tend to have fewer injuries. Harden bad luck I guess. I know for a fact the older you get if you are out of shape you tend to have more things go wrong.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 21, 2008 11:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
this is very true Boomer...
I don’t care how FAT he is.. that’s not the point. Is he properly conditioned is the question. That’s the important part. His name wouldn’t keep popping up in the Ranger pitchers have to be in better shape conversations amongst the team if he wasn’t the one who’s in the worst shape. I recall mentioning on many occasions how much he seemed to be laboring on the mound. He was far from crisp out there. Is he terrible? No. Is he a pitcher worthy of a 11 million dollar contract? HELL NO!!!!!!
Thanks Sarah Palin!!!
Because of your Hillbillie ass I won't be having turkey for Thanksgiving.
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 21, 2008 11:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
David Wells
Look, I’m not saying he shouldn’t have worked harder and lost that weight, but there are penty of guys who’ve carried just as much or more weight and been fine with it. Look back at Milly through his career and he’s always been a big dude. It’s not like he got here and balooned after he got the comfort of a big contract. He just kind of continued being tubby.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But...
as pitchers age the more important it is to stay in top physical condition. You are right he has always been a bit tubby, but as he is in his 30s now he should realize he cant keep pitching on pure skill alone
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 11:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
David Wells battled gout
most of his career just imagine if he ate right and worked out how much better he would have been.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 22, 2008 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course maybe if he had worked out and eaten right he would've tightened up and dealt with shoulder and hip issues his whole career.
Who knows.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
dirk
I agree with you a lot but this is pointless you have made up your mind about Millwood. MLB should just give him the CY right now. I have never said he is a bad pitcher only the last two years.
You can be fit and pudggy but if you are just overweight and not fit you will get injuries it is a fact of life.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 22, 2008 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh? What an odd thing to say...
I don’t think he’s greatness or anything. A LAIE, maybe a LAIE+ at best. And that’s only if he can avoid the nagging injuries.
I’m mainly trying to combat the notions that a) He’s a horrible pitcher, and b) that he’s fat and fat pitchers are intrinsically bad, injury prone bitches!
I don’t believe either of those things to be true and I’m sorry if I’ve rankled you by expressing my views on the subject.
Mine is a different viewpoint than your own, but that’s all it is. Just my viewpoint.
Millwood is a decent/good pitcher, not a great pitcher.
Millwood needs to avoid nagging injuries, yes.
No Denton True Young awards for him.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry that came out wrong
Millwood is a deent/good pitcher, not a great pitcher.
Millwood needs o avoid nagging injuries, yes.
I agree with that.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 22, 2008 1:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously?
You act as if Millwoods injuries are strictly “bad luck”. The guy is indisputably out of shape. No one on this blog is talking shit about CCs weight. And thats because the guy is known to be a hard worker and throws 200+ innings a year. If Millwood stayed healthy all year and threw 200 innings a year then ppl would be more forgiving, but the bottom line is that he is an out of shape, injury prone bitch making 12 million a year
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 11:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL yep well put...
If the Rangers had CC I’d bow to him and call him “your fatness” just keep throwing those 200 + innings every year like a champ.
Thanks Sarah Palin!!!
Because of your Hillbillie ass I won't be having turkey for Thanksgiving.
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 21, 2008 11:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, he's a bitch.
Okay.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 12:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
dont act as if...
you dont see the point i’m making
by erikj07 on Nov 22, 2008 12:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, no. I "get" the point you're trying to make.
I just don’t agree with what you’re intending to prove and think you’ve done a poor job of making anything resembling a convincing argument. You’ve stated no fact or stats and your main point in that last rant was to put some words in my mouth and then rant about how fat Millwood is again. Kudos, I suppose.
And I wanted to point out that calling someone a bitch doesn’t help your argument at all.
It just makes you look like someone with a rather sophomoric grudge.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 12:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess...
to you the fact that I believe Millwood is less likely to pitch effectively this year through the entirety of a season when compared to Padilla due to age and prior injuries and general physical shape coming into each year is no reason to be concerned. It seems to me that Padilla is in much better shape to make it through an entire season giving this team reliable innings as opposed to Millwood. I understand all of the stats you are making your argument with, but I feel that Padilla would be the one to keep this year.
by erikj07 on Nov 22, 2008 12:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
See, now that's an argument.
An extremely subjective one based almost entirely on personal feelings, but a definite step up from:
“the bottom line is that he is an out of shape, injury prone bitch”
and
“Millwood sucks, but not only that, he is always out of shape and is anutter failure considering the expectations coming to texas”
I just don’t know what do with posts like those. I like to argue baseball and when we’re trying to argue the merits of one player versus another I just don’t know how to construct a solid counter to a name-call or a personal attack.
And for the record, no, what you believe doesn’t concern me at all, cause I believe the opposite and think the stats pretty well back me up. No offense. I think Millwood is the better pitcher and will continue to be the better pitcher for at least the next couple of years. Yah, the age difference bothers me, but not too much. Age certainly effects pitchers, but it’s not as drastic of a fall-off post-30 as it is with hitters, imo.
So even though, like I said, it’s not a blowout or anything, I see it as a pretty clear win for Millwood.
I think if you normalized their stats for luck you’d see Millwood in a whole ’nother light when comped to Padzilla.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 12:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well...
no disrespect but we simply disagree. I think Padilla is the better choice for 09 going forward where as you feel Millwood is the better choice. Sorry if you think my argument is dumb, but I think the conditioning of our pitchers in this environment is very important and Padilla is by far better suited to handle the rigors of the Texas heat IMO. I don’t think the focus of my argument was solely based on personal attacks, but obviously you disagree. Regardless, I would be fine with either of them traded for a decent prospect or two assuming we don’t have to eat salary, but I would much prefer Millwood to be shipped off.
by erikj07 on Nov 22, 2008 1:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
For sure
maybe the trainer meant Millwood will always take the ball when his labia isn’t hamburger meat. Milly tries to be tough and all, but when you’re an out of shape turd it makes it hard….either way, I’d rather not have Millwood around the boys on the rise.
Freddie King rules faces.
by Ryin A on Nov 21, 2008 10:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 21, 2008 10:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not to worry I followed the bouncing post :)
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 21, 2008 10:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
best case...
for me would be to get rid of one of them for anything, somehow get rid of the cat, and use the extra payroll to sign sheets for 3/4 years ~16 mil per.
This is, however, probably a pipe dream.
by Schrute Farms on Nov 21, 2008 10:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Still thinking
about Cornell?
Freddie King rules faces.
by Ryin A on Nov 21, 2008 10:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Is that Clay Akin in you pic?
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 21, 2008 10:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hahaha
Didn’t he say he was gonna look at Dartmouth instead?
by Schrute Farms on Nov 21, 2008 10:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think so
that show is gettin’ crazy, hope they don’t jump the shark on us!
Freddie King rules faces.
by Ryin A on Nov 21, 2008 10:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This makes me happy...
I wouldn’t deal both, but rather I would treat it similar to the catching situation. Deal which ever one will bring back the most and hang onto the other. I wouldn’t deal both Millwood and Padilla (unless very overwhelmed). Dump the salary of one of them and go hard after Sheets, Wood, or both.
Beat those Cougs.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 21, 2008 11:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Personally I think 3 rotation spots is enough for the kids
Considering the inevitable injuries and ineffectiveness that will open up plenty of chances.
Ill be displeased if we get rid of them purely as a salary dump getting fringe prospects in return and not using that payroll room.
Now if we get rid of them to be able to afford a realistic sheets offer and actually make it, ok.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on Nov 21, 2008 11:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you there.
There needs to be veterans in the rotation. If they give one Millwood or Padilla up, they need to bring another in. Hopefully a better one.
Otherwise I don’t see the point.
by Black Francis on Nov 22, 2008 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Give up one get another
I think if they did manage to move one you’d see them get more serious about Sheets.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 22, 2008 3:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Padilla for Heilman and a kid?
would you do it. perhaps one of the young guys this guy has listed in the 10-15 range. Heilman is coming off a down year but he has historically been a very solid pitcher and he has two more arbitration years left, so we are talking about a pretty significant cost savings. If we can parlay any cost savings from this deal into extra money for a guy like Sheets, then I am all for it.
by clark on Nov 21, 2008 11:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'd do it for Heilman alone
if his arm checked out health-wise after his injury-plagued ’08.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i thought that at first...
but a starter has to be worth more than a reliever, right? Especially a reliever coming off an injury plagued year. a team like the mets puts a premium on the present, so I would at least ask for one of those high upside kids from their rookie levels to help balance out the deal. That kid Movial, a 2007 second rounder, is 6’11" and reached high A last year. I would ask for him or the Marte kid.
by clark on Nov 21, 2008 11:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There's something to be said for two years of cheap reliever (who could, conceivably start, btw) over one expensive year of a below LA starter.
But apparently I’ve totally underestimated how good Padzilla is. Everyone here likes him. I beg to differ, of course, but that’s neither here nor there.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 21, 2008 11:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
his ERA
was far better than his peripherals last year, but he, like Millwood, is relatively cost certain on a short term deal and has pitched in the NL East before, so he has some value. I am pretty sure we have pitchers on our current roster who could replace his production, so it would be great to flip him for a legit late inning reliever who, as you mentioned, could start, and if we can get a high potential prospect in the trade as well, all the better. Additionally, Heilman is almost certain to be a type a free agent, whereas I doubt Padilla makes it above type b status.
gotta love those relievers.
by clark on Nov 21, 2008 11:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think if the Rangers traded Padilla...
…they’d aim younger than Heilman. I doubt they go for a reliever either (although supposedly Heilman wants to start again).
by LiamP on Nov 21, 2008 11:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
all would...
depend on if the rangers viewed Heilman as a starter. I personally view him as underwhelming for Padilla
by erikj07 on Nov 21, 2008 11:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Deal Padilla
First, I just don’t get this ridiculous dislike for Millwood. I’m totally with dirkatron on this. If you look beyond ERA, he has been a decent pitcher according to tRA, DIPS, FIP, etc. He is a mediocre, #3ish starter and he is getting paid at the going rate for such a player.
On the other hand, Padilla might have a higher perceived value because of his high win total and reasonable ERA last season. But his FIP was a full run higher than Millwood last season. He also had inferior tRA and tRA+ numbers. He is, quite frankly, the inferior pitcher. But, because of luck and defense, it is possible that Padila might be valued equally or even greater than Millwood. If the Rangers can get similar returns for either pitcher, they should definitely try to deal Padilla before they deal Millwood.
And if they plan on adding a pitcher via trading a catcher/outfielder, dealing Padilla might make sense to open up payroll room, allow more flexibility to pursue FAs and leave three rotations spots for young pitchers.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 21, 2008 11:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Millwood has been consistenly better than Padilla, so far.
but one thing you can say is that Millwood is a bigger candidate for regression. I think his fastball velocity has continuously decreased in the past few years or so, and he has not shown major improvements in his breaking pitches and continues to rely on the fastball (if not even more so). His age is also getting into that range where you becomes a little bit hesitant. I honestly don’t know if I can say if Millwood will be better than Padilla two or three years from now on, and I don’t even know how much he will be better than Padilla next year.
If I were to trade one, I’d simply trade the one that gives me the highest return at the present time, maybe taking into consideration of whether either of be a A/B type when they hit FA.
by Telegraph on Nov 22, 2008 12:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly...
just by watching almost all of the Rangers games last year, I feel like Padilla is the best option for the Rangers next year, Yes, his FIP was worse than Millwoods last year, but as far as giving reliable innings next year through the entire season next year, i feel Padilla is easily the top choice. Just thinking about it (which really is a stupid way to make judgement i admit) I always felt Padilla gave us the better chance to win on any given day. And going forward, considering the injuries sustained by Millwood and the general concensous that he is always out of shape, I feel that Padilla is the more valuable pitcher between the two.
by erikj07 on Nov 22, 2008 12:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Feelings aside.
Millwood has averaged more starts per season and more innings per season and has been better at pitching during those starts and innings.
So, yah. I feel the exact opposite.
I feel like Millwood gives this team the best chance at winning. And it’s not even close, imo.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 12:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I watched just about every one of Millys starts this year..
and Padillas too. I always got the impression that he was on the verge of implosion and I’m not talking about his belt buckle. It seems like when he pitched he had tons of baserunners and sure enough he game up 40 more hits in less innings than Padilla did. Batters hit .312 off of him, Padilla they hit .275. I looked much more forward to Padilla pitching and sure enough he had the much better record. I’m glad that Millys FIP is better though. I’m happy for him. Now get back on the treadmill! Oh and I’ll take the 14 and 8 over the 9 and 10 any day.
Thanks Sarah Palin!!!
Because of your Hillbillie ass I won't be having turkey for Thanksgiving.
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 22, 2008 12:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
gave* up 40 more hits
Thanks Sarah Palin!!!
Because of your Hillbillie ass I won't be having turkey for Thanksgiving.
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 22, 2008 12:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Padilla's BABIP was .309. Millwood's was .366.
Padilla was rather lucky*, Millwood was decidedly unlucky.
.*- Lucky for a Ranger pitcher, at least… our team BABIP was a league worst .322 cause our defense SUCKS.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 12:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
whoa, whoa, whoa
Are you suggesting that we should assume Padilla was “lucky” because the same defense that played behind Millwood allowed less hits when Padilla was on the mound?
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 10:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you assuming that the same defense will always make the same plays behind each pitcher?
That’s like saying “Are you saying that Pitcher A didn’t get the same kind of run support as pitcher B even though they were both supported by the same offense all year long!!”
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually yes
I think it is a pretty safe assumption that the same defense will be equally effective for two similar pitchers. Of course different pitchers have different tendencies (GB,FB,LD)that would affect the defensive outcomes. When you are talking about the pitcher that gave up more line drives than anyone in basball, it seems pretty intuitive that the pitcher had more to do with the outcome of those balls put in play than the defense.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 1:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
earkljsrvbl;ijsdfvl/kndfv
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 2:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know what you mean by that
at least I think I do. I interpret it to mean, “damn I hate to agree with that SOB, but he’s right this time”.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
dirkatron...
has a mancrush on Millwood. No big deal. But on a serious note, I agree with the notion that LD% has a correlation with the perceived good or bad “luck” which certain stats attempt to measure.
by erikj07 on Nov 22, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No I don't.
I just think he’s better than his surface stats would indicate and I refute the widely held belief around here that we’d be lucky to just give him away to a team who would be willing to take his contract.
And if you believe that about LD% you’d prolly be real interested in tRA, which attempts to deal with precisely that.
But now you’re prolly just gonna toss your head back and have a good jolly laugh about I have a man crush on tRA and high-five Tricer or whatever.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 3:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No it means the fact that you seem to think a pitcher's outcomes aren't influenced a ton by things beyond his direct control really fucking frustrates me so instead of saying something mean about how I feel about you intelligence level...
…I just figured I’d mash down on the keyboard out of anger.
Like this:
kjearwglkdrnbjkdfvkjbdfvbknldf
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 3:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a mash-down party!!
ljklkjsadfsdvbvcbvciyyualkj;ejlk498v09l
asdlkjfgu7b235oajo234o5ji
opoiuoiuvvlkj3kljkaaaasdflkjejn31m,ng
werrwwqenmnmnm,afdsfda907981
Bring up Matt West '09
by Chase Irwin on Nov 22, 2008 5:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
When players...
…hit the ball harder, they are more likely to be hits.
by Black Francis on Nov 22, 2008 10:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if a batter wanted to hit a line drive last year...
Millwood was the guy he wanted on the mound. He gave up the highest percentage of them in baseball.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 11:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
preach my brutha!!!
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Nov 22, 2008 1:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's disconcerting, and it shows why his tRA is much higher than his FIP.
That’s actually a pretty good point, though it’s not like there aren’t some pretty good pitchers right around him.
Interesting, to say the least.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
First Sonnanstine, and now this.
What’s the deal with us I wonder.
Kindred spirits?
Long lost twins separated at birth?
Or just like minded Ranger loving baseball nerds with internet connections?
Only time will tell…
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 12:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I vote separated at birth
since you share two of my great loves, Sonnanstine and nerdy baseball stats!
Btw, I like the icon. I got to school in Manhattan and one of my professor makes occasional baseball references. At least 4 or 5 times, he has started these little anecdotes with the phrase, “Imagine one of the very best baseball player ever, like Derek Jeter,” …and every time he says that, I die a little inside.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 22, 2008 1:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
New Yorkers are absolutely crazy for Jeter.
It’s not a media fabrication at all. They’re all literally nuts for the guy. He’s a god to them. They worship the jump throw like we worship the Hamilton upper deck bomb, only about a million times as hard.
I went up this summer with my Dad to catch a game at Yankees stadium before it closed down, and I shit you not when I say that when I was in line (or since this is a NY story, I guess I should say “on line”) for a dog, there were two simultaneous arguments going on around me about how much better Derek Jeter is than Arod. I was literally surrounded by ARod is better than Jeter arguments. And neither was really an “argument” in the classic sense. It was just two cases of one guy saying how much better Jeter was than Arod while the other guy nodded and said “Fuggehduboudit” or something. And these guys were completely serious, too. It blew my mind at first.
I had to really hold myself back from saying anything, but I figured “Died shortly after making a big ranty speech about how hard Jeter sucks compared to ARod in the middle of Yankee Stadium” was probably not what I wanted on my tombstone.
I can’t imagine trying to be a stat head baseball fan living there. I’d develop a Jeter-related nervous twitch or something.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, obviously that line in the middle of the line story should read I was surrounded by "Jeter is better than ARod arguments"
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Trade them now
because before the midseason deadline JD will think we might be in it and will hold onto them…
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
by Agreen07 on Nov 22, 2008 12:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
you trade padilla...no question
does anyone here remember the end of the 07 season. we couldn’t have given him away…and most here were saying to just cut him…padilla is never ever consistent. better than millwood this year yes. but very very avg. remember 07…remember 07 remember 07… i take milly over him anyway..but wouldn’t be upset to see both go for ready pitching prospects.
by 1man5stools on Nov 22, 2008 12:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
'07 is not a good representation of Padilla..
he was on the disabled list for 50 games and hurt most of the year. ’06 was with a 15 and 10 record and a 4.50 ERA…thats why he got the good contract.
quite honestly I don’t care either way if they get rid of Milly or Padilla I won’t lose any sleep either way.
Milly has been annoying the last few years showing up not properly conditioned and filling the bases with runners BUT the thing is like I’ve said before he is on a mission this year so I’m predicting he has a pretty good year. I’d love to see one of them go and make a run at Sheets but of course that’s too good to be true for RangerLand.
Thanks Sarah Palin!!!
Because of your Hillbillie ass I won't be having turkey for Thanksgiving.
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 22, 2008 1:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Are there any reliable numbers out there
to show whether the contract year phenomenon actually exists or not? Because with both of these kids basically in walk years, I’d think it’d make sense to hold onto them until July.
by Keynes on Nov 22, 2008 7:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
More on the teams...
that could be interested here:
http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/25801
I would love for these three teams to miss out on the FA pitchers they are targeting and get into a bidding war for the likes of Millwood/Padilla. I doubt it would happen, but if more than one team comes after either of them hard it can only help JD and the Rangers.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 22, 2008 10:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Beat those Cougs.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 22, 2008 10:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Beat those Sooners.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Nov 22, 2008 10:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking about this from a Texas perspective
I don’t think it matters for them. Whoever wins this game will make the Big XII championship. The only shot Texas has is if that team loses to Mizzou. And even then, you know voters would push their tails off for USC.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh and
if OU wins but loses to Okie St, Tech then wins the real tiebreaker with Texas. All Texas really has to hope for is a BCS bid.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 10:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
If the Sooners win out they will be in the Big XII championship game. Either way it will be Tech or the Sooners.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 22, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not if people remember head to head
OU is no more likely to get that spot than TT or UT. I’ll take my chances in a three way tie rather than just be shut out and go the the Fiesta bowl.
by Hull Fan on Nov 22, 2008 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You sure?
I was pretty sure that Texas gets the edge as long as it isn’t a huge blowout for OU.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Nov 22, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Look at it this way
Texas beat OU and jumped them in the polls. TT beat UT and jumped them in the polls. If OU beats TT they should jump them in the polls not to mention if OU does win out they will have played a better non conference schedule than both with Cincy and TCU. Not being a homer that is just how I see it.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 22, 2008 1:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
UT lost to TT
by one great catch at the very end of the game. That game was played in Lubbock. UT on the other hand safely beat OU. OU also gets the chance to play at home vs. Tech. That’s why I think if its a close win for OU, since OU already lost to UT and got to play Tech at home, that UT ends up winning out of those 3.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Nov 22, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Beat those Raiders
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 22, 2008 11:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I gotta go against you here, broseph.
Beat those Sooners.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Nov 22, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I understand Rodney
At the end of the day we are still Rangers fans standing together.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 22, 2008 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Any team who beats
TU is a team of mine!
lol
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Nov 22, 2008 11:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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