LSB Community Prospect Project: #5

by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:36 AM CST Comment 132 comments

4 down, a lot more to go.

After 281 votes, Michael Main has won the right to be called the LSB Community #4 prospect!

Over 50% of the votes, so his parents along with our own Mr. Jason Parks can all be very proud of their boy.

The list so far:
1. LHP, Derek Holland.
2. RHP, Neftali Feliz
3. 1b, Justin Smoak
4. RHP, Michael Main

Time to move on to the next vote.

The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.

And please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.

NOTE: There has been some speculation as to what the criteria are for this vote. Should guys who have spent time in the bigs be involved in "prospect" discussions? For the sake of this exercise we're taking what the guys have done in the big leagues and using the BA prospect formula of 130 AB's or 50 ip. If a guy is under those limits, he's still a prospect and he goes on the poll. It's that simple.

Resources:

MJH's prospect previews for the DMN Blog:

10/16 - 11 Weeks of FFG (Prelude to Prospects Lists below)

10/28 - RH Starters 1-5

10/21 - RH Starters 6-10

10/17 - RH Starters 11-15

11/16 - LH Starters 1-5

11/08 - LH Starters 6-10

11/18 - Catchers

Jason Parks and Joey Matschulat's Top 25 list from their excellent Rangers' site, BBTiA.com.

Poll

Who is currently the #5 prospect in the Rangers' system?

C, Taylor Teagarden

56 votes

C, Max Ramirez

17 votes

1b/OF, Mitch Moreland

0 votes

2b, Jose Vallejo

1 votes

SS, Elvis Andrus

116 votes

OF, Julio Borbon

2 votes

OF, Engel Beltre

0 votes

RHP, Blake Beavan

1 votes

RHP, Eric Hurley

4 votes

RHP, Wilfredo Boscan

0 votes

RHP, Neil Ramirez

1 votes

RHP, Tommy Hunter

0 votes

RHP, Wilmer Font

0 votes

LHP, Martin Perez

23 votes

LHP, Kasey Kiker

1 votes

LHP, Robbie Ross

0 votes

LHP, Tim Murphy

0 votes

222 votes | Poll has closed

7 recs | Comment 132 comments

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Comments

Max again for me.

C’mon people.

Join the Max party!!!

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Sorry dirk

I gotta go with Elvis here – his talent and progression for his age is too extrordinary for me to bounce him out of the top 5. Max has my garunteed vote at #6 though.

"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL

by lonestarJon on Nov 22, 2008 2:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

" He throws it where he wants it, his breaking ball kept getting better and better and of course God gave him that special arm. He's great." ~ Neftali Feliz on Derek Holland.

by Kinslerhomer on Nov 22, 2008 8:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

the maxist party?

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Nov 22, 2008 7:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ugh i voted max on accident

andrus was who i meant to vote for

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2008 11:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh

I kinda feel sorry for Max now. No respect, no respect at all.

"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL

by lonestarJon on Nov 22, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

you...

Think I’ll ever get married? Seriously.

"This report of my death was an exaggeration"--Mark Twain

by rangerdanger on Nov 22, 2008 2:18 AM CST reply actions 1 recs

If you are always in

danger of rangers I suppose not.

A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555

by boomer1 on Nov 22, 2008 11:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope not joining ya Dirk,

Im going with the King!

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Nov 22, 2008 5:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Long live the king

Freddie King rules faces.

by Ryin A on Nov 22, 2008 6:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Andrus

no brainer.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 22, 2008 7:14 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Andrus vs MaxRam vs Teagarden

This is the toughest vote for me so far with Andrus, MaxRam, and Teagarden being the best candidates to fill the #5 slot. So how do you compare a good-fielding, speedy, but light-hitting SS; a good fielding, low avg, high walk, power-hitting catcher; and a poor-fielding, good hitting catcher? Because all three players have reasonably long track records and AA experience, I think it is reasonable to begin to porject their ML performances. Once you get there, then you can use win-shares to estimate each player’s contribution to the ML team.

Andrus
Projected offense (year 3) – 300/350/400/750 + 40 SB

ML Comps
O Cabrera (2006) – 282/335/404/738 + 27 SB – win-shares = 19
O Cabrera (2007) – 301/345/397/742 + 20 SB – win-shares = 25
O Cabrera (2008) – 281/334/371/705 + 19 SB – win-shares = 17
J Reyes (2007) – 280/354/421/775 + 78 SB – win-shares = 24

Teagarden
Projected offense (year 3) – 240/320/400/720

ML Comps
Varietk (2006) – 238/325/400/725 – win-shares = 11 (projected for 130 games)
Varitek (2007) – 255/367/421/787 – win-shares = 15
Snyder (2007) – 253/342/433/775 – win-shares = 17

MaxRam
Projected offense (year 3) – 300/380/470/850

ML Comps
Martinez (2004) – 283359/492/851 – win-shares = 21
Martinez (2005) – 305/378/475/853 – win-shares = 22
Martinez (2006) – 316/391/465/856 – win-shares = 19
Martinez (2007) – 301/374/505/879 – win-shares = 31

Projected win-shares
Andrus – 21
Teagarden – 14
MaxRam – 23

My vote? MaxRam by a hair.

by spurdynasty on Nov 22, 2008 7:22 AM CST reply actions 8 recs

Wow

That’s some good stuff. Rec’s all around.

I know this must have taken some time, but can we expect more of these comparisons in the future?

"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL

by lonestarJon on Nov 22, 2008 7:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

The ML comp/win-share analysis seems uniquely appropriate for comparing Andrus/Teagarden/MaxRam.

Time permitting, I expect to provide reasonably in-depth analyses of Borbon, Boscan, Hurley, and Poveda since they are prospects that I have more highly rated than most.

by spurdynasty on Nov 22, 2008 8:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Great stuff

I’ve always liked Ramirez over Teagarden and always have been a bit lower than Andrus than the average fan. So seeing you lay it all out scientifically makes me feel a lot better about voting for Ramirez here.

Rec

by TRanger on Nov 22, 2008 8:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

How did you go from AA performances to the ML projections?

Thanks for the analysis, spur…

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Nov 22, 2008 8:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Projections

I don’t know that anyone has done a study on this, but I have noticed highly regarded prospects who are called up to the majors when in their early to mid-20’s tend to put up offensive stats by their 3rd MLB season that are similar to what they did in AA and AAA. Teagarden’s projected numbers reflect his AA and AAA productivity. MaxRam’s projected numbers are less than what he did in AA/AAA in 2008 simply because I have a hard time believing that he is going to out-OPS the next best offensive catcher in the majors by 100 points.

Andrus’ projected line is based on a comparisons to two other highly regarded, young-for-their-level shortstops, Edgar Renteria and Jose Reyes. As 19 yo’s in AA, Reyes had an OPS of 751 and Renteria had an OPS of 719. Andrus had an OPS of 717. After brief stops in AAA, Reyes had an OPS of 768 in his rookie season in the MLB and Renteria had an OPS of 757. Assuming Andrus follows a similar path, his OPS should be ~750.

by spurdynasty on Nov 22, 2008 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Good to know.

Texas Rangers Analyst - Michael Schlact Profile,
Mike Grouse Interview,
TRA Newsletter

by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 12:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

How do you quantify their defense there?

Varitek and Tea seems like a weird comparision to me.

by JBImaknee on Nov 22, 2008 10:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda seems like he did

Tek and Tea and MaxRam and Martinez seem pretty comparable (albeit maybe a bit lofty).

I had to go with Tea because, well, cause.

Nothing pithy here. Please move long.

by WyoRanger on Nov 22, 2008 10:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

However

If you’re using win shares, I don’t think you’re capturing the real advantage that Teagarden or a player like him would have over Ramirez or a player like him.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Nov 22, 2008 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Win shares and defensive contributions

Win shares do account for differences in positions (catchers get more defensive win-shares than 1B) and they also account for differences in a player’s defensive capabilities based on things that can be objectively measured (caught stealing, passed balls, errors, etc for catchers). There is not a statistic that measures the value that a catcher has to managing the pitching staff, though win-shares indirectly captures that due to the fact that the metric assigns more win shares to teams that have more wins. That would mean that a catcher who does a great job of managing a pitching staff would receive more win-shares based on the fact that there would be more win shares to distribute for teh team.

by spurdynasty on Nov 22, 2008 1:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

But Win Share's defensive portion is one of the more highly criticized things in the world.

Slightly ahead of the Bush administration.

Doesn’t make it worthless, but. . .

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Nov 22, 2008 1:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Defensive metrics

There is a scene in “The Secret Lives of Dentists” that reminds me of the conversations between individuals touting their favorite statistical approaches.

Scott Campbell (the dentist) – “We need to re-do the filling here and the crown there because the last dentist did a shoddy job”
Denis Leary (the patient) – “Look, Doc, do whatever you need to do, but do it cheap because the next dentist that I see is going to just tell me that he has to re-do the crappy work that you did”

Every baseball stat jock is convinced that the assumptions that someone else makes are wrong and that the data that they use is inadequate. The reality is that when you compare the results of their analyses, they tend to give remarkably similar results. In my opinion, win-shares, VORP, WARP, etc come to remarkably similar conclusions which suggests to me that they are all remarkably accurate in estimating player value.

by spurdynasty on Nov 22, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Win Shares and WARP do come out pretty similar, indeed.

And both have very questionable defensive portions.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Nov 22, 2008 2:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And, of course, there's baseline questions in WARP.

Which I have more trouble with than even the defensive portion.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Nov 22, 2008 2:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I have a problem with this part of it

There is not a statistic that measures the value that a catcher has to managing the pitching staff, though win-shares indirectly captures that due to the fact that the metric assigns more win shares to teams that have more wins. That would mean that a catcher who does a great job of managing a pitching staff would receive more win-shares based on the fact that there would be more win shares to distribute for teh team.

A catcher doesn’t necessarily have to do a great job managing a pitching staff to get this benefit. He just has to have a great staff. If Gerald Laird gets traded to the Yankees or Salty to the Sox, they’ll see more benefit than Teagarden in this regard, even though we all know they aren’t better.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 3:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Catcher vs pitcher effects

are extremely difficult to distinguish. I imagine that developing a stat that eliminates, or even minimizes, the variance in pitching talent between teams is virtually impossible which explains why no one has tried to develop a defensive metric for catchers that extends beyond assessing their ability to avoid errors and control the opposing team’s running game.

Regarding the suggestion that a great “game-calling” catcher would likely have more win-shares than a “poor game-caller”, I think that is true. To use the Salty example above, let’s assume that Salty goes to the RedSox and Varitek comes to the Rangers. If Salty is a much poorer game-caller than Varitek, then presumably the ERAs of the Sox staff will go up and the team’s win-loss record will go down. Instead of distributing the 285 win-shares that they would have gotten for the 95 wins that they would have received with a great game-caller like Varitek, they only distribute the 270 that result from the 90 win season that they had. Salty would necessarily receive fewer win-shares.

In the same example, Varitek goes to the Rangers and raises the performance of the pitching staff and increases the number of wins for the team. The five extra wins that might result from Varitek’s presence increases the win-share allotment by fifteen and Varitek would presumably benefit by receiving an extra win-share or two. The win-share effect to Varitek is indirect because there is not a good way to directly measure his influence on the pitching staff. This points to the beauty of the win-share model – the metric captures the overall performance of the team and then distributes it among the players.

by spurdynasty on Nov 22, 2008 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The beauty of the win-shares metric

I just re-read the last sentence from the previous post and realized how poorly it reflects what I was trying to say.

The beauty of the win-share methodology is that it captures all of the unmeasurable things that go into creating a winning team and then distributes them to the individuals who comprise the team. The methodology is imperfect, but it does strive to and largely manages to assign credit to all of the things that players do to contribute to a winning team.

by spurdynasty on Nov 22, 2008 5:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's not bad.

I’m nearly convinced.

Though I was pretty close already.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Nov 22, 2008 11:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice post spurs

Only question I have is what would Maxs win shares be if he was a DH? I don’t think he will ever be good enough to stick at catcher which tremendously diminishes his value IMO.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 22, 2008 1:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

A full-time DH receives no wins-shares for fielding

If Max was a full-time DH instead of a full-time catcher, then his win-shares would drop by 3-7 per season if his hitting were unchanged. Of course, if Ramirez DH’s full-time instead of catching, then I would expect his OPS to climb by 50-100 points which would probably be enough to off-set the loss in defensive win-shares he would experience by not playing in the field.

by spurdynasty on Nov 22, 2008 5:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

OPS climb

I wouldn’t expect that big a climb in OPS for him full time DHing, but I would expect his peak to be a tad sooner, and his decline to be less steep over time.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 23, 2008 5:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

To use another all-encompasing metric with questional defensive evaluation (and a different baseline). . .

WARP

Cabrera
2005: 3.2
2006: 5.5
2007: 6.1
2008: 6.5

Reyes
2007: 7.9
2008: 8.8

Varitek
2007: 5.9
2008: 3.5

Snyder
2008: 5.0

Martinez
2004: 6.0
2005: 7.9
2006: 5.7
2007: 8.1

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Nov 22, 2008 1:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Using WARP with the same ML comps used for the win shares, you get

Andrus – 5.8
Teagarden – 5.5
MaxRam – 6.9

Notes
I excluded Reyes 2008 because those numbers are far better than anything I expect from Andrus
I excluded Veritek 2008 because those numbers are worse than what I expect from Teagarden

As with many statistical comparisons, the conclusions are very similar.

by spurdynasty on Nov 22, 2008 2:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

TT

Texas Rangers Analyst - Taylor Teagarden Profile,
Mike Grouse Interview,
TRA Newsletter

by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 7:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I voted for Tea just to make Z mad

we “Salty haters” have to stick together.

by JBImaknee on Nov 22, 2008 10:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hah

I don’t have a problem with ranking Teagarden #5. Where I have a problem is in projecting him as more of a difference maker than a Smoak. Andrus is a lot of projection just like Teagarden, and he’s similar in that a lot of his value is wrapped up in his defensive ability at a key position. And the other guys I’d consider here, Perez and Ramirez, have a lot of obstacles to hurdle still.

And if Saltalamacchia were on this list, I’d have a problem with someone ranking Teagarden at like five and Salty at 12 or something like that.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 10:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Salty...

2 home runs and 4 walks last night in the Dominican. Badass.

"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL

by lonestarJon on Nov 22, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Smoak

I agree, I think Smoak is well above Teagarden. I think Smoak is probably a tier above him. As for the Salty stuff, I’d have to say they’d probably grade out about even in my book if Salty was still prospect-eligible. I’d have a lot of trouble deciding who to rank higher.

Texas Rangers Analyst - Michael Schlact Profile,
Mike Grouse Interview,
TRA Newsletter

by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Me too

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Salty @12 would be silly

After these prospect rankings are done, it’ll be interesting to take our non-prospect kids (eg., Harrison, Salty, Davis) and ask “if they were still a prospect, where would they reside?” in a poll.

by JBImaknee on Nov 22, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Question About TT

Does nobody care how he MASHED his first few seasons in the minors, then in the majors he mashed again?

by cwhitman412 on Nov 22, 2008 8:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Funny thing about Tea

Throughout his minor league career, whenever he mashed he always had a ridiculously high BABIP, and whenever he has done poorly it has been pretty low. That would make you think the true TT lies somewhere in-between his good minor league numbers and his bad ones, I think, but (seeing as how he’s pretty much a three true outcomes hitter) it also might indicate he’s going to be very streaky.

That’s really why I refuse to be sold on Tea just yet, despite his storied defense – I just have no idea what to really expect from his bat in 2009, and therefore I’m not setting my expectations very high (I already made that mistake with one young catcher).

"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL

by lonestarJon on Nov 22, 2008 8:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Boscan interview

Great stuff from JParks at http://www.bbtia.com/home/author/jason-parks

You can also find the BBTiA Top25 prospects after the Main article at the link.

by spurdynasty on Nov 22, 2008 8:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I linked to the BBTIA top 25 in the article.

Very bottom, just above the poll.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The King

I’m all shook about him

by BEW on Nov 22, 2008 8:30 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

A video of Andrew Laughter:

http://www.vimeo.com/2306455

" He throws it where he wants it, his breaking ball kept getting better and better and of course God gave him that special arm. He's great." ~ Neftali Feliz on Derek Holland.

by Kinslerhomer on Nov 22, 2008 8:39 AM CST reply actions 1 recs

Elvis again.

IMO, Main shouldn’t have been so high with his very limited pro exposure.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 22, 2008 8:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I really think the community took a 3 inning appearance in the FIL out of context on Main.

In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.

by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 8:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yep

He was pretty good in A this year then spectacular in instructs (apparently). It is perfectly logical to vote Smoak over Main because Smoak has been spectacular over his entire sample size (including college and wood bat summer leagues). Main has been very good but I wouldn’t use spectacular and he’s a pitcher in A ball: the least likely kind of good prospect to make the majors.

by bushe on Nov 22, 2008 10:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I need more numbers on him.

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Nov 22, 2008 9:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Prospect lists are like often like the stock market

driven by speculative ranking

by Telegraph on Nov 22, 2008 9:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My logic is, if we're gonna rank Smoak #3

Based on 56 AB’s worth of low A plus an amazing AFL performance, I don’t see why Main can’t be #4. Both are getting rave reviews these days, but neither has a very big minor league resume (Smoak really has even less of one than Main).

"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL

by lonestarJon on Nov 22, 2008 9:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I think being a hitter

Smoak is probably more of a sure thing to reach his ceiling than Main is, but overall I would agree with this point of view. Both have extremely high ceilings, perhaps the highest in the organization at their respective positions.

by JimBonnick84 on Nov 22, 2008 10:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Plus we have college numbers for Smoak.

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Nov 22, 2008 10:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thing is

We aren’t ranking him based on that. It’s just part of the picture.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 10:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yah, I know

I’m just saying, the argument that Main hasn’t seen enough MiLB action to justify such a high ranking doesn’t really make much sense if you’ve got Smoak ranked third (which Rodney does – I checked).

"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL

by lonestarJon on Nov 22, 2008 10:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hitters typically

don’t have injury issues. Not that Main does, but all young pitchers face those.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 22, 2008 11:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's true

And Main did have injury issues this year. But then again, he bounced right back from them to show some real progress in Clinton, so…

"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL

by lonestarJon on Nov 22, 2008 11:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

i agree with this

thats like saying iona shouldnt be ranked, pedro alvarez, justin upton was like top 15/10 for BA IIRC as well

meh rank on talent, not necessarily results. check uptons stats for the first year he had in the minors

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Main

His ranking was obviously driven by glowing reports from FIL, but I think that his season was also underrated because of less than optimal velocity. If you compare his numbers this year with guys like Jarrod Parker and Phillipe Aumont, guys who went ahead of him and Beavan and are regarded very well as prospects (Parker is a top 40-50), they stack up quite well.

And when you know that a pitcher with good stuff is both supremely athletic and seems to have the intangible mental aspects in spades, it’s easy to get excited.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 10:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand that, and agree.

However much good stuff & supreme intangibles exist, there still is the injury nexus for any young pitcher. I would be much more comfortable ranking him this high if he had, say, pitched 100 innings or so.

I can certainly understand those favoring him, though.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 22, 2008 10:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think of pitching prospects

like walking around in Europe late in the 14th century. A third of them will be wiped out by the great plague of arm injuries, and there doesn’t seem to be much that anyone can do about it.

But I don’t see Main’s problem last spring as anything that affects his future or makes him more likely to get hurt again. It is different from a guy who is hindered by a tender shoulder or elbow his first year.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Z goes medieval

about the Rangers arm Renaissance.

I’m probably not the only one, but I think the Rangers need Maddux to be the Jaramillo of pitching coaches. How killer would it be if he was a guy that attracted pitchers and made them suddenly fulfill potential on the mound the way Jaramillo does for guys at the plate.

Some of Jaramillo’s rep may be undeserved given the kinds of awesome talent he’s had to work with and the ballpark. But I’m fine with Maddux getting a huge rep if the massive talent wave performs as we hope and he at least doesn’t screw it up

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 22, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

As far as the pro exposure thing

I’ve never really understood this. These guys are prospects before they play pro games. They’re harder to judge, obviously, but elite talents are much easier to project, especially college ones. And Smoak is an elite talent. People would have traded prospects with lots of “pro exposure” for Mark Teixeira, Ken Griffey Jr, Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, Justin Upton, etc.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 10:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Where's Golson?

Is he no better than our #23 prospect?

Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.

by RangerMad on Nov 22, 2008 8:44 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'd guess that he'd be quite a few spots below Borbon

And Borbon’s probably somewhere in the 10ish range.

by Keynes on Nov 22, 2008 8:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.

by Brian Thomas on Nov 24, 2008 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I know. Borbon should totally be up in the 6-7 range.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 24, 2008 11:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not as down on Borbon as you think

He had a nice year. I acknowledge that, and my opinion of him now is different than it was in March.

The why was related to Golson. As in, why would he fall significantly behind Borbon?

Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.

by Brian Thomas on Nov 24, 2008 11:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

His K-Rate is ridiculous.

It’s been over 30% each of the last two years.

I’m not sure how well he’ll hold up against top flight pitching when he struggles to make contact like he does.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 24, 2008 11:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You want him added?

Is that what you’re saying?

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The only Elvis I've ever reallly liked

Andrus, Max, Perez

Then I don’t know where to go. I’m not sold on TT’s bat. Maybe Hurley but man…I don’t know yet.

by Hull Fan on Nov 22, 2008 8:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

That's when the real fun starts for me

When you actually have to start figuring out who you’re voting for, instead of just picking out who your vote goes to. That’s when the real discussion starts too, instead of the petty Feliz/Holland and Main/Elvis debates we’ve seen so far.

"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL

by lonestarJon on Nov 22, 2008 8:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Andrus

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by hinduplaya on Nov 22, 2008 8:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wow...

I’m still not convinced that Andrus isn’t just another Joaquin Arias or a Drew Meyer with a little bit better projectability. Can anyone point out why he’s so highly thought of?

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by ortonius on Nov 22, 2008 9:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Elvis played this season at 19 years old in AA

If he had been in Low A and put up a line of .310/.380/.450, with the sort of defensive reputation he has, would you consider him a better prospect? After a slow start adjusting to once more being the youngest player in his league, this time in AA (this biggest jump in the minors), Andrus hit .317/.370/.408 from June on. That’s not just the end of the season, that’s the majority of the season. I’m not positive that Andrus is going to be a good hitter, but I think that some people don’t take age into enough consideration with him. He’s just a kid. He’s going to get stronger. How much, I don’t know, but he has the frame to get stronger, and he’s exhibited that he’s the kind of guy who will put in the work necessary.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 9:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

more context on Andrus age

Tim Beckham would have to play in AA next season to match the age to level developmental track that Andrus is on.

The second half success that Andrus had in AA was absolutely huge for a teenage shortstop in that league.

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by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 11:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

IOW

I think some people may be underestimating what Andrus’ ultimate ceiling could be. There are a couple of MVP level guys in the NL that had a similar statistical record at the same age.

In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.

by tricer on Nov 22, 2008 11:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Who?

I’m not being disrespectful, just asking.

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This is sort of cheating because there is almost nothing in his minor league numbers that suggested that he’d be anything like what he is, but Hanley Ramirez played his 19 year old season in Low A: .275/.327/.403. Rollins was in High A: .244/.306/.354. Reyes was promoted to AA about when he turned 19: .287/.331/.425

Andrus has superior on-base ability to all of those guys at the same age. Ramirez and Reyes showed more power.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

those are interesting comps

any idea how his speed compares to reyes?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I looked at those guys before, and the thing I saw was exactly that: less on-base, more power from them. I think that Andrus is a different kind of player than that. None of those guys was seen as Major League-ready defensively at such a young age like Andrus was.

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, and when you say more power, you’re not talking a ton more. And in Hanley’s case, we’re talking about TWO levels lower. If Andrus had been in Low A this season, he would have hit for more power.

Meanwhile Andrus just blows them out of the water in terms of getting on base (Ramirez and Rollins in particular) and at a higher level.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

On base

and that right there is why any comp to Arias is ridiculous.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 22, 2008 2:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 2:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

if you looked at those guys before, why did you ask the question? Shouldn’t it have been obvious? You don’t think he compared favorably with those guys’ numbers?

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Somewhat

I think the thing that sets those guys apart is that their power was more significant. I’m high on Andrus more as a defender and line-drive hitter. Looking at someone like Reyes, he had more XBH in a little more than half the time that Andrus had at AA. That’s what sets them apart, but there’s room to grow for Andrus, as well.

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The point is

most top, pure short stop propsects don’t do what ARod did at age 19 and hit .332/.386/.626 in AAA. The do what Andrus is doing.

The direction you’re coming from is basically putting the worst face on it that one can. I mean Reyes hit for a little more power, and he’s pretty much the only one who did, including guys who are hitting 25+ HR in the majors. No, Andrus probably isn’t a 20 HR guy, but almost none of these guys are, and I don’t know anyone here who is saying that he will be that.

The discussion on Andrus is whether he offers enough to be a quality top of the order hitter, and when you compare him with these guys, statistically he sure stacks up well in that regard.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Who gives a rip

about power from SS. Sure, it’s nice to have, but not a needed component on this team. Make the plays, make some exceptional ones (which I think Andrus will), and swipe 40 or so bags.

That would make me very, very happy.

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Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 22, 2008 11:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i almost had a heart attack lol

i was like, but power is part of what makes hanley a VERY good player and one of the best players in the game lol

but then i realized you were talking about the rangers

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2008 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And

when I say “the point is” I just mean in tricer’s initial comment that sparked the direction of this discussion.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Andrus

I don’t expect Andrus to do what ARod did. I also don’t think he’s going to be an offensive force like a Rollins, Ramirez, Reyes, etc. I think he compares much more favorably offensively to a guy like Renteria, though with slightly more speed. I’m definitely ok with that. If Andrus turns out to be a solid leadoff or #2 hitter, that’s a huge, huge plus. Defense is much more important to me there, and I think Andrus is probably better than any of those other guys at that age. Andrus will be a quality ML shortstop, and that’s what makes him great.

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

rollins is FAR from an offensive force

the guy is a CAREER 99 ops+
CAREER .277 BA
yes he was good in 2007, but he set career high in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, ops+, HR, 3b, hits, RBI

his top 3 comparable players: 1) michael young 2) ronnie bellard 3) todd walker

he has topped at 103 ops+ once in his career

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rolliji01.shtml

rollins is far, far far from an offensive force

then again reyes is a career 101 ops+, renteris is a 96 career OPS+

but then again all of em are pretty good.

anyone think he comapres to rollins at all?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2008 12:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Rollins

I mean as far as power is concerned. Andrus is a better pure hitter, but Rollins has the advantage as far as power is concerned. Rollins is also a very efficient baserunner, though Andrus will be capable of that, too. I was mainly talking about his power, though. I don’t expect Andrus to hit for Rollins-like power (power being defined as more than just HRs).

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Rollins is maybe not a "force" but he's a good offensive player.

Career .270 EqA and he’s been at least a .269 for five straight years now, including seasons of .291 and .282. He adds quite a bit offensively, partly thanks to his base running.

And considering (in this era) .255 or so is average for a shortstop, that’s pretty damn good.

If he ever becomes Jimmy Rollins I’ll do cartwheels.

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by philkid3 on Nov 22, 2008 12:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 12:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Continuing

Peralta was in A+: .240 .328 .351
Renteria AA: .289 .329 .388

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Renteria

That’s who he’s been compared to a lot before.

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 11:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I like

The OCab comp as well.

I had a paper route when I was a kid. I was supposed to go to 2,000 houses. Or two dumpsters.

by TheBZA on Nov 22, 2008 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He was in short season ball

.282 .323 .407

Andrus is a millionaire’s Cabrera.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Should have said

OCab as a floor.

I had a paper route when I was a kid. I was supposed to go to 2,000 houses. Or two dumpsters.

by TheBZA on Nov 22, 2008 12:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

True

I can see that.

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 12:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Furcal was in rookie ball: .258 .335 .342

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to be interested to see what PECOTA does with Andrus after this season

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

it thought he would be one of the best prospects around now a couple of years ago

2 maybe?

i want tos ee what it thinks of holland myself

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2008 11:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I just mean in terms of comps and the like

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ahh

whats your ranking of the catchers zy?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2008 11:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

1. Saltalamacchia
1. Teagarden
1. Ramirez
4. Laird

by Brett Perryman on Nov 22, 2008 11:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

i would have no problem w/ a teagarden for buchholtz swap (but i dot think it will happen)

im ok w/ trading teagarden/salty and laird but i kind of hope we keep maxram and let him play every day at AAA and let salty/tea (whoever we keep) play the majority of teh games for the rangers + have a veteran backup (NO melhuse lol)

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2008 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh.

I like that.

I’d go:
1. Max
1. Salty
1. T-Tea
4. Laird

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 22, 2008 1:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Elvis

Has to be one of the hardest Rangers’ farm hands to predict this offseason.

I had a paper route when I was a kid. I was supposed to go to 2,000 houses. Or two dumpsters.

by TheBZA on Nov 22, 2008 11:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

His age throws me off. Don’t know what to expect long-term.

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 11:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I think there are plenty of guys harder to predict, with Teagarden, Beavan, Santana off the top of my head as guys with major ups and downs and question marks.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 22, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Santana

Depends what side you’re on with Santana. Most expect him to bust at this point.

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by Andy Seiler on Nov 22, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Elvis

I had a paper route when I was a kid. I was supposed to go to 2,000 houses. Or two dumpsters.

by TheBZA on Nov 22, 2008 10:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'm gonna go with Max over Elvis

I love my offensive catchers just like dirkatron and LSJ, and I really think Max’s bat will make him our catcher of the future sooner or later. I like Elvis too, but as spurdynasty’s comparisons show above, it seems more likely that there’d be more ultimate value in Max’s bat than Elvis’ glove.

by JimBonnick84 on Nov 22, 2008 10:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Perez

Apparently I’m not alone, but it feels like it, 9 votes for Perez?? I wouldn’t be surprised if he has the best major league career out of all of our prospects, the kids a beast. I could see Max going here, but if he doesn’t figure out the whole catching gig he is significantly less valuable as a DH. Elvis is solid, but I take the pitcher over the light hitting king. Are you guys not high on Perez or is he just too far away to get your vote here??

by rangerjake on Nov 22, 2008 12:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs