LSB Community Prospect Project: #6
5 down, a lot more to go.
After 211 votes, Elvis Andrus has won the right to be called the LSB Community #5 prospect!
Over 50% of the votes for the winner yet again. We seem due for a close one any time now...
The list so far:
1. LHP, Derek Holland.
2. RHP, Neftali Feliz
3. 1b, Justin Smoak
4. RHP, Michael Main
5. SS, Elvis Andrus
Time to move on to the next vote.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
NOTE: There has been some speculation as to what the criteria are for this vote. Should guys who have spent time in the bigs be involved in "prospect" discussions? For the sake of this exercise we're taking what the guys have done in the big leagues and using the BA prospect formula of 130 AB's or 50 ip. If a guy is under those limits, he's still a prospect and he goes on the poll. It's that simple.
Resources:
- MJH's prospect previews for the DMN Blog:
10/16 - 11 Weeks of FFG (Prelude to Prospects Lists below)
10/28 - RH Starters 1-5
10/21 - RH Starters 6-10
10/17 - RH Starters 11-15
11/16 - LH Starters 1-5
11/08 - LH Starters 6-10
11/18 - Catchers
Jason Parks and Joey Matschulat's Top 25 list from their excellent Rangers' site, BBTiA.com.
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Comments
I'm a little drunk as I post this, so lemme know if there are errors.
Something that’s not an error at all is the fact that I’m gonna be voting for Max again and again till the rest of y’all rubes get on the trolley.
Posada.
V-Mart.
Maximiliano.
So-so defense.
Middle-O’-the-Order bat.
Believe.
In.
Max.
Yes.
We.
Can.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
MaxRam vs Teagarden
If you are trying to decide whether Taylor Teagarden’s game-calling ability is makes him a better prospect than the premier-hitting Max Ramirez, you should note that the only effort that has suggested that there is a measurable "catcher-effect" on ERA has been de-bunked by Baseball Prospect and Bill James:
Catcher’s ERA or CERA in baseball statistics is the earned run average of the pitchers pitching when the catcher in question is catching. Its primary purpose is to measure a catcher’s game-calling, rather than his effect on the opposing team’s running game. Craig Wright first described the concept of CERA in his 1989 book The Diamond Appraised. With it, Wright developed a method of determining a catcher’s effect on a team’s pitching staff by comparing pitchers’ performance when playing with different catchers.
However, Baseball Prospectus writer Keith Woolner found through statistical analysis of catcher performance that “catcher game-calling isn’t a statistically significant skill”.2 Sabermetrician Bill James, too, performed research into CERA, finding that while it is possible that catchers may have a significant effect on a pitching staff, there is too much yearly variation in CERA for it to be a reliable indicator of ability.1 James used simulations of catchers with assigned defensive values to directly compare CERAs, which influenced Woolner to perform similar simulations but instead using weighted events to calculate pitchers’ runs per plate appearance.1 Through this, Woolner concluded that even if catchers do have an effect on pitchers’ abilities to prevent runs, it is undetectable and thus has no practical usage.1 He also stated that “the hypothesis most consistent with the available facts appears to be that catchers do not have a significant effect on pitcher performance”. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catcher’s_ERA
You can read the BP article at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=432
Still skeptical? A review of runs scored by opponents in 30 minor league games caught by Taylor Teagarden compared to 30 minor league games caught by Ramirez netted the following:
Average Runs Against Teagarden – 4.6
Average Runs Against Ramirez – 4.5
Notes – all of Ramirez’s games were in AA; 20 of Teagarden’s games were in AAA.
by spurdynasty on Nov 23, 2008 7:18 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
the impact of catcher defense / pitch calling
I think it is worth noting that just because something is not easily quantified, that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist. Perhaps we just don’t know how to measure it.
I don’t claim to know how much impact a premier receiver has on run prevention, but I believe that it does have some impact.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
+1
CERA comparisons don’t exactly capture that, imo.
Bring up Matt West '09
by inactive lsb user on Nov 23, 2008 8:23 AM CST up reply actions
I suspect
that this is as difficult, if not even more difficult, to measure as the defense of other positions. In the long run, the pitchers themselves have a lot more to do with their success than the catcher, whose contributions matter less than the pitching coach’s IMHO.
Relevant questions:
1. Will Max’s defensive shortcomings be more evident and more of a liability at the major league level than they are at AA?
2. Is it better to have an outstanding offense carry a defensively strong catcher such as Teagarden, or maximize the offense with Max and risk worsening an already porous defense?
3. Can the club improve its overall defense in the next couple of years to make #2 irrelevant?
4. Is Salty a good enough mix of the two strengths that it makes the Max/TT question moot?
5. Are we wasting our time because they’ll trade whoever gets the best return anyway?
No one seems very interested in Laird, and veterans are not bringing back much this offseason. It’s probably better to trade any of the younger 3 if they want a decent return.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
My 2 cents on factors that have a greater impact on a starting pitcher's ERA than a catcher's game-calling ability
(1) Team defense, especially range
(2) Bullpen – bad bullpens allow inherited runners to score and inflate a starting pitcher’s ERA
(3) Pitching coach – see http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/03/the_mazzone_eff_1.php
(4) Manager – knowing when to pull a pitcher and what reliever to call upon can substantially alter a starting pitcher’s ERA. Tony LaRussa and Bobby Cox are prime examples of managers who help their starting pitchers.
The Manager's role
I have this feeling that managers like catchers with a good reputation for game calling well over and above any evidence to support it, much like they tend to think things like small ball batter more than they really do.
I also think the pendulum has almost fully swung from valuing veterans too much to valuing prospects way more than veterans. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or if they’re going too far.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
The value of veterans vs prospects
I agree that most teams have significantly altered their views of how to value veterans vs prospects. In my opinion, the two factors driving that change are steroids and economics.
The significant reduction in steroid use is limiting the productive life-spans of players and making it difficult for teams to get decent returns from most players beyond their early thirties.
The economic benefit with prospects is that they typically give you veteran-ish production beginning with their 2nd or 3rd season at a fraction of the cost of a free-agent stage player. Even after you incorporate the drop-out rate for prospects, the cost/benefit of using young players is far superior to using veterans.
by spurdynasty on Nov 23, 2008 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
And beyond that
to add to your two points I’d add that there is a lot more willingness to examine the statistical evidence these days for the economic benefit. Most team now completely understand that you’re often just as well off (or better off) going with the young player instead of the barely above replacement level veteran, or the overpriced but still productive veteran.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
So, if I side with you,
then it seems TT’s reputation is a facade. If that is in fact true, then his value surely plummets, and Max’s offensive potential should have him winning in a landslide. However, TT is leading the voting by a large margin.
SSS hoodwinking, or do savvy fans truly believe TT is a better prospect than Maximus? If so, why do you feel thusly, all who are voting for TT here?
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I think Tea's huge lead here
Has more to do with public opinion than savvy myself (AKA the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately affect.) Tea of course finished out the season on an extremely high note, while Salty had just gotten injured after a wasted developmental season and Laird was suffering a second-half return to earth. I think people got overexcited about Tea this Sept. simply because his performance was a breath of fresh air after how badly the rest of the catching situation had been handled this year, and that optimisim has obviously carried over into the offseason.
Now there’s nothing wrong with that really – the current opinion of the masses is what these polls are all about, after all – I just think people might be setting themselves up for dissapointment if they really expect Teagarden to fullfil the potential of this organizations 6th-best prospect. Just my 2 cents.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
What have you done for me lately
Big time. That is usually the single biggest factor in these polls at LSB, and why Main and TT are getting so much love. I’m not saying it’s undeserved, and I think in general the community discussions do a fair job of sorting out the ranking. But with some of these guys we don’t have a whole lot to go on so it’s natural to let the latest glowing report or small sample sway our opinion to a large degree.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
then why does hurley still get this much love?
lol i keed i keed
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 24, 2008 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
lol
yeayeayea
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 24, 2008 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
i wanted to be cool
so i voted max, though i was really close to going perez here and if max wins im certainly voting perez next
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
I voted for Tea
And twelve others have since 2:30 am. What exactly are we doing at this hour.
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
Gets a bit tougher now
Max here, though you could easily justify Perez, TT, Beltre.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I voted for Perez
but it bugs the crap outta me because of this picture. Jason Cole has my back, though.
same here
voted for perez, may be further away, but his ceiling outweights teagarden lack of a “top end” ceiling for me (will he ever make consistant contact?) and the questions about max’s glove
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 23, 2008 8:24 AM CST up reply actions
yeah
In 5 years Martin Perez will be pitching to either Tea or Max every 5th day.
Who will be the player with the higher ceiling – Perez or one of the catchers?
Lotsa people are saying glowing things about his future these days.
Let’s hope he doesn’t go to Hickory next season and Fabio Castillo it all away.
Ceilings
I don’t see a lot of difference between the ceilings of MaxRam (950 OPS catcher) and Perez (#1 starter). Given that MaxRam has a much higher floor (850 OPS DH), I think you have to rank him above Perez.
by spurdynasty on Nov 23, 2008 11:00 AM CST up reply actions
I think
You have to consider the likelihood of the ceilings occuring when ranking them. I think Max even if he is a 950 OPS catcher will be a below average defensive player, and I think there is a much higher likelihood he’ll become an above average DH. I think Perez has a greater chance of becoming an ace than Max does an everyday starting major league catcher. I buy the Perez is too far away argument, but not the Max has an equal ceiling to him, because Perez could be the best pitcher in all of baseball someday, I don’t think Max could ever be the best position player in all of baseball. Just my personal opinion, I def agree Max should be ranked above TT though.
Is that Eric "Shroom" Carter
receiving Perez’ autograph?
Bring up Matt West '09
by inactive lsb user on Nov 23, 2008 8:25 AM CST up reply actions
Is he scap loading that pen or something?
by Brett Perryman on Nov 23, 2008 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
Dude, look at his arm
If anything, the pen is scap loading him
Yeah
I assume that shroomer’s issue is with now small he looks, and that is pretty striking.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 23, 2008 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
TT
I am getting more and more comfortable with trading Salty and Laird and going with TT as starter with MaxRam as backup/DH/1B. As fragile as Blalock is maybe its better that he plays DH and Max can be 1B with CD playing third. That way if TT is hurt in a game Max can shift over to catcher.
The one thing I am against is Max being the backup catcher and only playing once a week. I would feel better if someone on the roster could be an emergency catcher
The one thing I am against is Max being the backup catcher and only playing once a week. I would feel better if someone on the roster could be an emergency catcher
this is what will happen if hes in the major leagues, because ron washington understands roster mgmt about as well as my desk.
he is completely clueless when it comes to things like this, see saltamacchia, jarrod
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 23, 2008 8:26 AM CST up reply actions
Going with Max, as promised
But it appears Teagarden is going to win this by a good margin, if the early results are any indication.
I gotta wonder where we’d all be ranking Tea had he not had such a torrid September – not only is #6 probably a bit high for him (IMHO he probably should be around #8 or 9) but he’s had an increasing chunk of followers voting for him in each round since #3. That’s an awful lot of stock to be putting into 53 PA’s. Just sayin.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
+1
say it with me, SMALL SAMPLE SIZE
teagarden is a known commodity for the most part and lets be real here, hes not gonna hit .280 at the major league level.
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 23, 2008 8:27 AM CST up reply actions
Ok I'll try...
“Small saaaaaa…..809 slugging percentage”"
Shit. Couldn’t help myself.
by slimshadty12 on Nov 23, 2008 1:05 PM CST up reply actions
You know who's pretty awesome?
Joaquin Arias. .314/.366/.430 career MLB line in twice as many ABs as Teagarden. That’s an All-Star SS right there.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 23, 2008 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
Actually, he's even better than that as a SS
though the sample size is tiny… .429/.429/.429. That’s a future Hall of Famer right there.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Dirk
Appreciate the plug. Very cool of you. Here is the link to our most recent top 25: http://www.bbtia.com/home/2008/10/27/the-bbtia-top-25-prospect-rankings-fall-08-edition.html
The one currently linked is from our old mid-summer list.
Thanks again for doing these community lists. Good stuff.
+1
Nice job with the LSBCPP’s Huntressatron.
Bring up Matt West '09
by inactive lsb user on Nov 23, 2008 8:26 AM CST up reply actions
Ah, shit. My bad. Just googled Jason Parks and top 25 and that's what came up. I'll fix it next time.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 23, 2008 5:23 PM CST up reply actions
For what's it worth...
(which is zero)…the 1 through 5 mirrors the top of my Top 72 list for the book, exactly.
Hey Jamey...
Jamey,
Is there a chance you’ll reveal your Top 72 list anytime soon?
Here's to players whenever they hit into double plays. It's the only time in professional sports where I can definitively say, "yes, I could have done better."
by YourNameHere on Nov 23, 2008 4:33 PM CST up reply actions
Sure he will
buy the book…..
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 23, 2008 4:37 PM CST up reply actions
Tea
I’m not worried enough about the offensive ups and downs, nor the injuries.
Max suggests the question asked of trees in unheard forests…if a player won’t get played, is he still a prospect?
I’d think more of the player if he was in another org. Top 10, no doubt, but yeah.
Go Strangers.
Went Perez
Most here know my skepticism for TT. He was going to go probably 9 or 10 on my list. My decision was whether Max’s bat by itself was enough to overcome a very very solid season by a 17 year old in Spokane. It was close but that kid was just too good. I think had Max showed something in either AAA or here in Arlington I would have given him the nod here.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
GG
I like TD better than GG, but voted MR.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Call me crazy but
I went with Beltre.
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. Back to Suckville with a loss to FLA ATL but whatever, SUCK IT WESTERN KENTUCKY! 1-9 baby!
Those that voted for TT
should be ashamed of themselves. Ramirus Maximus for me.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Well, I don't know about ashamed
But I would advise they temper their obviously grand expectations of Tea, lest they find out what being dissapointed by your favorite catcher is like…
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Even if the bat comes down a bit, a .750 OPS gold glove catcher is pretty darn awesome.
But the real problem with Tea, imo, is the injury history.
His inability to stay healthy is a bigger concern to me as Max’s defense.
I’ve heard people try to rationalize Tea’s scary-bad minor league season by saying he was dealing with nagging injuries all year, but that’s zero comfort to me. I’d actually rather hear that he just plain old fashioned struggled.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 23, 2008 5:28 PM CST up reply actions
I agree
But just to stir the pot, I’ll also point out that all our catchers kind of got banged up this past season. Salty and Tea both dealt with some nagging injuries, while Laird spent what, about a month on the DL with his hamstring… aside from Max, who didn’t catch as many games as the others, it was a pretty rough season for those guys.
by JimBonnick84 on Nov 23, 2008 9:59 PM CST up reply actions
True, but T-Tea has had some injuries that go beyond "Catcher's getting banged up".
He’s had serious back problems, which scare the shit out of me for a catcher.
And of course he had TJ surgery in his past.
I’m just saying I downgrade the guy because I have little faith in his ability to stay healthy long term. Other people don’t, and that’s fine. It’s not a black and white issue.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 23, 2008 10:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Max was also injured
Injured his hip when he went back down to OKC and missed almost a month I believe.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Ah
I’d forgotten about that. Now that you mention it, I think that was around the same time Nelson Cruz went down.
by JimBonnick84 on Nov 24, 2008 9:12 AM CST up reply actions
Perez
Still very young, can fill out, and the chance to have three plus pitches and a front of the rotation starter just excites me more right now than anyone else in the system
In Smoak We Trust
When a scouting type can take one look at you
…and the two conclusions are:
1. You clearly have more upside than Derek Holland
2. You remind him of Johan Santana
you might have a little talent.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 23, 2008 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
Was the quote
really that he “clearly” had more upside than Holland? IMO, that is a big qualifier.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 23, 2008 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
FWIW
I voted for Perez too, I’m just asking the question
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 23, 2008 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
Two things
I’ve seen the question asked to more than one guy, and while “clearly” isn’t the word used, the response has been definitive, not hedging, each time. Still, it’s specifically on upside, not anyone saying he’s clearly the better prospect at this point.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 23, 2008 3:39 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 23, 2008 3:48 PM CST up reply actions
Well, its still early
To put him in like top prospect range (1-5), but his potential is just scary
In Smoak We Trust
It's too early?
I ask myself that, but I’m not sure.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 23, 2008 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
I mean its still too early to make him our top prospect
5-8 would be a prefect position for him in this ranking
In Smoak We Trust
Julio Borbon
Lets just say I have faith in the new AFL walk rates to go along with his other skills.
Wow...
I just voted (Perez). But I expected it to be a close one between Max and TT. I’m surprised TT is running away with it.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
First eight spots seem pretty set (Teagarden, then MaxRam, then Perez). I actually think that the next two are likely to be the next highest votes in this poll, Hurley and Borbon, but it will at least be interesting to see how it goes at that point.
Borbon will rally to challenge Perez at #8.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
he shouldnt
perez should be ranked higher than borbon without question
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
But what I like about this is that Borbon — a very bright young man and a smart ballplayer — demonstrated that he can do whatever he’s asked to do. Guys like that are rare…and valuable.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
guys like perez are rare and valuable too.
not trying to knock borbon here at all, but perez just has amazing upside.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
I have Borbon above Perez.
Despite Perez’s recognized tremendous upside potential.
I just love speedy plus-defensive CF’ers, and I think Borbon will hit enough to make him a real plus overall at a very tough position. Plus he’s just so much closer than M-Per. You have to give the guy some credit for being essentially major league ready versus a guy who’s yet to throw an inning of full season baseball.
Perez is in my top ten though. The guy’s a beast. What he did last year relative to his age is just bonkers.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 23, 2008 5:58 PM CST up reply actions
We know you do
You have sort of a miles-y love for speedy outfielders.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 23, 2008 7:18 PM CST up reply actions
I just love CF defense so much.
I want a good defensive CF’er so much and I think CF is the one position where speed is a huge asset.
Maybe it’s the fact that first good Ranger teams I saw growing up were anchored by guys like Daryl Hamilton and Tom Goodwin.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 23, 2008 7:34 PM CST up reply actions
Oops, obviously those guys didn't "anchor" those teams. Certainly they weren't the best players or the most important. They just played a speedy CF for them.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 23, 2008 7:35 PM CST up reply actions
According to Cliff Claven...
“that’s when you say one thing and mean a mother”.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 23, 2008 10:08 PM CST up reply actions
Frankly
that’s a bit of an irresponsible overstatement. That he’s taking more walks in the AFL is awesome, but it doesn’t demonstrate that he can do whatever he’s asked to do. If he could, he would have been walking all year. It’s not like they just woke up and said, you know what, maybe let’s see if Borbon will walk a little. They’ve been trying to get him to work on his approach since last fall, but just placed enough of an emphasis on it in enough of a practice-like environment that he has been able to focus on it. The issue won’t be addressed really even initially until he can sustain it over a regular season. Remember, this is a guy who has walked some in other forums (offseason tourneys and leagues), but hasn’t done it in regular action for any sustained period. We’re all crossing our fingers though.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 23, 2008 4:59 PM CST up reply actions
He was a high draft pick, with a large bonus, and expected to move fast.
And he’s only been in the sytem for one year. It’s not like the Mayberryed him, and said F.U., you need a total rebuild of your swing/approach. He had a great season, and the powers that be presumably didn’t want to mess with what was working. I think you also have to factor in the adjustment to wood bats, as there was some question as to how he would adjust. As he experienced decent success from the outset of his pro career, I think the brass just wanted to let him be his 1st year.
Now, going to teh AFL, perhaps they said “damn the results”, we want you to try this, instead of what you usually do. There is a noticable shift in some of his stats, which would seem to suggest just more than “trying to work a walk”.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
the powers that be presumably didn’t want to mess with what was working
I really doubt that they did that. You don’t take a guy to FIL and let him play an entire year without doing a single thing to work on the prime weakness in his game. That just seems silly to me.
I think you also have to factor in the adjustment to wood bats, as there was some question as to how he would adjust.
For what it’s worth, he’s played with wooden bats before. I think that his adjustment to the level of play was greater than the wood bat thing, and of course that has nothing to do with offensive approach. If there’s one thing you can do while you adjust to wood (if you need to) is work on your approach.
I don’t doubt at all that they placed a major emphasis on it prior to AFL, but to suggest that they didn’t place any kind of focus on it during this yera makes zero sense to me. I mean if he were a shortstop who was air mailing every throw, would they just say, let’s get through this year and then we’ll worry about that. Or if he were popping everything up, let’s get through five months of games, then we’ll start working on it.
This is a guy with prototypical leadoff ability, who, if he can overcome one weakness could be exactly what they need, and who they and everyone else knew before they even drafted him what his big area of work needed to be. To just waste a year of development without addressing it at all would be pretty unforgivable and just isn’t how coaches and instructors work. They worked on it, but his approach is so ingrained that it’s taking more drastic measures. But again, that course of events doesn’t suggest that “he can do whatever he’s asked to do”. It suggests that (and this may be what he was trying to say), with enough work, he might be able to make this adjustment, but the fact that it took a full year to even start to make improvement doesn’t make for a guy who just hears something once and puts it directly into play, at least in this one area.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 23, 2008 5:25 PM CST up reply actions
I know he's played in wood leagues,
and I really doubt the coaches didn’t say a word to him this season about anything.
There is a noticable shift in some of his stats, which would seem to suggest just more than "trying to work a walk".
This is really the focus for me. I am wondering if they are attempting to change parts of his swing, or his positioning in the box, not just “work more walks”.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
This is why i'm hoping
there is a Julio Borbon interview coming in the “Prospect Interview Series”
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Awesome.
Thanks JP!
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I think you're misreading that line...
When somebody says that another person does “whatever he’s asked to do,” I don’t think that means the person being asked is like Superman (I’m not saying that’s what you’ve said, I’m just making a point here). It’s possible that the Rangers asked Julio Borbon to take certain steps during the regular season to improve his offensive production, and after complying then, he is now being asked by coaches to do something else to further his development.
The higher walk rate that we have just seen from Borbon in the Arizona Fall League might have been caused by some adjustment(s) he made during the regular season followed by a further adjustment(s) that coaches instilled within him after the season. (It should also be noted that Borbon struck out at a higher rate in the AFL than he did during the regular season. It might be that the higher walk rate more than makes up for the additional strikeouts, or that further changes in Borbon’s approach may need to be made).
It’s possible that while multiple adjustments were needed for Borbon, and that while the the sum of those adjustments is greater than the sum of those adjustments taken individually, working on all of them simultaneously would have been counterproductive, and that there was an optimal order for making them.
Here's to players whenever they hit into double plays. It's the only time in professional sports where I can definitively say, "yes, I could have done better."
by YourNameHere on Nov 23, 2008 5:41 PM CST up reply actions
I’m not misreading it. You’re missing a very key word there in your first paragraph, “can”. He didn’t say that he does whatever he’s asked to do. He said he can do whatever he’s asked to do. That implies a very special skill to incorporate teaching very easily, which is something that very few guys can do. It’s what he’s saying there, and if Borbon can do that, he didn’t pick very compelling evidence at all.
I obviously am not in meetings or sessions where they coach Borbon. But come on. The guy can hit. To say that the first step in teaching him how to fix his big problem, which is his approach to his at-bats, is to completely avoid it…you’re just having to come up with a far fetched scenario to support the initial statement, rather than accept the obvious, which is that he just wasn’t able to incorporate it into his game through the normal course of the season, and they had to send him to summer school to force feed it.
I know that debate over something like this that isn’t concrete will go on forever with no progress, though, so I’ll stop here for my part. I think that it’s pretty obvious that you’d defend pretty much whatever he says to build up a player regardless of how silly it is, just like you’d defend pretty much anybody in the world they’d keep on their 40 man roster.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 23, 2008 7:28 PM CST up reply actions
Not very accurate...
I don’t necessarily agree with all of their 40-Man Roster moves. I advocated releasing Frank Catalanotto. And although it might have appeared that I thought that it was okay to release Wes Littleton, all that I said was that the fact that Littleton has had success at the Major League wasn’t a sufficient reason to keep him on board. In all honesty, I don’t know if the Rangers were right in their decision to keep him over Willie Eyre. I even said that if Littleton has more upside, then that is a different point (Since Littleton pitched very little with the Big League club last year, and Eyre was just pitching in the Arizona Fall League after missing all of the 2008 season, I really don’t have that great an idea of what to expect from either going forward).
And with regards to tmy defending of any player, I brought up the fact that Borbon’s increased walk rate has coincided with a significantly higher strikeout rate. And while I don’t necessarily dwell on the negative, and like to talk about all of the options the Rangers have, I have a very realistic understanding of what to expect from the minor league system.
Here's to players whenever they hit into double plays. It's the only time in professional sports where I can definitively say, "yes, I could have done better."
by YourNameHere on Nov 23, 2008 10:55 PM CST up reply actions
Max for me again
Gotta say I’m really surprised how much Teagarden is running away with this though. LSB sure does love some Tea.
Catchers Skills Showdown
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2008/8/2/the-skills-showdown-battle-of-the-texas-backstops.html
Check out the comments to get Bill James protege Chuck Rosciam’s take on our catchers situation.
I know that article was done in august
but that’s interesting to me that on offense alone he would’ve ranked Laird #1 then and for the next 2-3 years.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 23, 2008 10:39 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I don't buy that
given Laird’s inconsistency. I guess he’s banking on the younger guys taking a while to get going at the major league level and he may be right.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I don't know
It seems fairly obvious to me that if you’re just looking at offense that if you gave Max the same playing time as Laird, Max would have better production — now and for the next 2-3 years.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 24, 2008 8:18 AM CST up reply actions
That would be my guess
that within 18 months (maximum) both Max and Salty could be outhitting Laird, and Teagarden would be close enough that you would be just as well off with him in the lineup and probably better off on defense.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
how is it that most of us
voted for Max, yet he’s getting clobbered in this poll?
Teagarden won’t sustain his unbelievable OPS nor has he proven any ability to stay healthy. Just can’t see him realizing this kind of potential in comparison to Salty or Max, let alone Perez, Borbon and some of the other names here.
This is crazy talk, folks.
Pitching
Perez gets my vote. It is absolutely skewed towards pitching because of the absence of this ability in Arlington. Any glimpse of hope on this front takes precedence over offense and catching (especially by a tsip) :).

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