LSB Community Prospect Project: #8
by thedirkatron on Nov 25, 2008 5:19 AM CST
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Print7 down, a lot more to go.
After 261 votes, Maximiliano Ramirez has won the right to be called the LSB Community #7 prospect!
He won by a healthy margin, but M-Per made a nice run at him there for a while.
The list so far:
1. LHP, Derek Holland.
2. RHP, Neftali Feliz
3. 1b, Justin Smoak
4. RHP, Michael Main
5. SS, Elvis Andrus
6. C, Taylor Teagarden
7. C, Maximiliano Ramirez
Time to move on to the next vote.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
NOTE: There has been some speculation as to what the criteria are for this vote. Should guys who have spent time in the bigs be involved in "prospect" discussions? For the sake of this exercise we're taking what the guys have done in the big leagues and using the BA prospect formula of 130 AB's or 50 ip. If a guy is under those limits, he's still a prospect and he goes on the poll. It's that simple.
Resources:
- MJH's prospect previews for the DMN Blog:
- 11 Weeks of FFG (Prelude to Prospects Lists below)
- RH Starters 1-5
- RH Starters 6-10
- RH Starters 11-15
- LH Starters 1-5
- LH Starters 6-10
- Relievers 1-5
- Catchers
Jason Parks and Joey Matschulat's Top 25 listt from their excellent Rangers' site, BBTiA.com.
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Comments
Wow, you even beat me.
How’d you do that!!!???
You’re a beast.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 25, 2008 5:24 AM CST up reply actions
100% random luck.
Seriously. I’m up late (picking up a friend at the airport) and I was about to go to bed, clicked on LSB because I’m anal about keeping up with updated feeds (the bold bothers me) and it had an update, and just happened to see this was posted with no comments yet. Decided to pull out a first.
Totally a coincidence.
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity.
Bring up Matt West '09
by inactive lsb user on Nov 25, 2008 8:29 AM CST up reply actions
Julio Borbon.
It’s nice to be able to vote for someone else after voting for Max ever since the 4th one.
Now I figure I’ll be voting for Borbon for a while.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
Where do you think he'll end up?
I assume Perez wins here, and I don’t really have too much of a problem with that, but you think Beltre or even Hurley beat him out?
I'm guessing
Perez goes here followed by Borbon. I went Beltre here, but should have gone Borbon. Beltre’s K/BB rate is real real bad. Borbon should provide good CF defense and assuming nothing goes horribly wrong he should at worst be a great #9 type hitter. If he could take a few more walks the Rangers could have themselves a very valuable leadoff hitter/CF. Perez has tons of potential and is unlike the other three pitchers in that he isn’t really a fastball guy like Feliz/Holland/Main. That can be a good thing, especially considering he is so young and can still add to his fastball that already touches 94.
by groundingout on Nov 25, 2008 6:31 AM CST up reply actions
Probably too simple
But with Perez being a lefty with what might be the best breaking ball in the system and having a fastball that already touches 94 at age 17 (not quite the 98 reached at 17 by none other than Wilmer Font) then perhaps a good upside comp would be fellow left handed fastball/curveball guy Clayton Kershaw.
by groundingout on Nov 25, 2008 6:40 AM CST up reply actions
Should we take your word for that?
Bring up Matt West '09
by inactive lsb user on Nov 25, 2008 8:50 AM CST up reply actions
well
Perez is listed at 165 (and seriously does anyone believe that?) while Kershaw is listed at 220 so I’d say it isn’t that far off.
*shakes head *
Bring up Matt West '09
by inactive lsb user on Nov 25, 2008 8:14 PM CST up reply actions
Whats that matter?
Is Lincecum’s FB less impressive than Kershaw’s because he’s half his size? I was just speaking of his potential to be a real good FB/CB guy.
by groundingout on Nov 25, 2008 9:09 PM CST up reply actions
I'm voting Perez
here, but I’m undecided for the next vote.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Me too
but it looks like Hurley/Borbon will have a nice run off
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 25, 2008 12:17 PM CST up reply actions
I had a tough time choosing between Perez and Beltre
Those Ken Griffey Jr. comparisons look very nice considering the outfield depth of the minors.
Perez
Now there’s one hype machine I can fall into pretty easily.
I figure I’m going with some combination of Borbon, Beltre and Hurley over the next three spots, I’m just not quite certain what order to put them in. After that, I’ll be debating among Kiker, Ross, Boscan, Font… damn I love this farm system.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
So are those your next 7, Jon?
Where does Blake Beavan fit in for you?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 25, 2008 7:02 AM CST up reply actions
Ah, I forgot about Cap'n Wunnerful
There’s just so many guys to choose from.
Some combination of those 8 is my future voting plan right now, just not necessarily in the above order (in my head, it’s not really in any order right now). I’m completely open to any hype, statistical evaluations and opinions on those guys that might sway my future votes as of now.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Borbon for me, too
I like Perez and Boscan a lot, but my vote here goes to Borbon because he is emerging as one of the top center field prospects in all of baseball. Check out how Borbon’s 2008 minor league numbers compare to the most highly touted CF prospects in baseball:
Borbon – 22 yo in AA – 60 games, 337 AVG, 380 OBP, 459 SLG, 839 OPS
Maybin – 21 yo in AA – 108 games, 277 AVG, 375 OBP, 456 SLG, 831 OPS
McCutchen – 21 yo in AAA – 135 games, 283 AVG, 372 OBP, 398 SLG, 770 OPS
Fowler – 22 yo in AA – 108 games, 335 AVG, 431 OBP, 515 SLG, 946 OPS
Jackson – 21 yo in AA – 131 games, 285 AVG, 354 OBP, 419 SLG, 773 OPS
Only Dexter Fowler had superior offensive numbers to Borbon in 2008. Worth noting is that each of the other centerfield prospects have played professionally for several years while 2008 was essentially Borbon’s first professional season.
Now compare Borbon’s 22 yo season to the 22 yo minor league seasons for a few major league centerfielders:
Borbon – 60 games in AA – 337 AVG, 380 OBP, 459 SLG, 839 OPS
Ellsbury – 50 games in AA – 308 AVG, 387 OBP, 434 SLG, 821 OPS
Granderson – 127 games in A+ – 286 AVG, 352 OBP, 458 SLG, 810 OPS
Crisp – 89 games in AA – 301 AVG, 366 OBP, 428 SLG, 794 OPS
Hunter – 82 games in AA – 282 AVG, 324 OBP, 438 SLG, 762 OPS
Cameron – 107 games in AA – 249 AVG, 349 OBP, 429 SLG, 778 OPS
Count me among those who believe that Borbon’s altered approach at the plate in the AFL is going to carry over to his 2009 season. Plus defense with a 300/390/450/840 batting line in AA or AAA should punch Borbon’s ticket to the major leagues by the end of next season.
by spurdynasty on Nov 25, 2008 9:17 AM CST up reply actions 6 recs
Great stuff
Apart from the arm the player’s one weakness is walks – far more glaring. If he closes that flaw up and stays healthy, he will fill a need for the ML club in 2009. The comps really drive it home.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 25, 2008 9:41 AM CST up reply actions
Playing devil's advocate
It’s always great to look at numbers side to side by this for perspective, and I’m rec’ing your post, but I’d like to nitpick just a bit. Yes, Borbon’s OPS looks great among that collection, but the one reservation most of us have about him is his plate discipline. The spread between his AVG and his OBP is just 43 points, the smallest of all of those above save Hunter’s. I do not expect Borbon to hit .337 consistently in the majors and I don’t think you do, either.
Unless he is able to make his brief AFL stint the norm, he pretty much has to hit .300 in the majors to sit among the company you place him in there. His defense will make him valuable, though, so I’m happy if he can increase that spread just a bit to give him some more leeway with the batting average. I think he’ll be a pretty good defensive CF for several years, maybe as much of a difference maker with the glove as Cameron was for Seattle. But to rank above Perez for me, I’d have to be confident that he would also be league average with the bat for a CF, and I’m not quite confident of that yet.
Have you made a similar comparison for other left-handed pitchers at 17 years old? :)
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Borbon's walks and Perez' comp
I understand the concern regarding Borbon’s walk-rate, but he appears to have the physical and mental tools that are required to successfully alter his approach. Borbon’s stats and scouting report indicate that he can hit a baseball which speaks to pitch recognition and bat control. The fact that he went to the AFL and tripled his walk rate (and placed 4th in the league in walks) suggests that he is perfectly capable of changing his approach at plate.
While Zywica’s suggestion that Borbon was likely having coaches tell him throughout the year that he needed to increase his walk rate makes sense, it would not surprise me at all if that were not the case. Many coaches (and supervisors) take the John Wooden approach to interacting with players (and employees). You provide a guy with a series of stated goals for a season and then you praise them when they do a good job. You emhasize the positive and push players to develop the skill(s) that you identified before the season as being critical to their success. At the end of the year, you review the players progress and then discuss new areas for emphasis. I have no first-hand information to suggest that this happened, but I like to believe that Borbon’s 2008 goals were to learn to recognize pitches and make solid contact, steal bases against professionals, and play solid defense. At his end-of-the-season review, Borbon was probably praised for an outstanding season and then told that if he wants to take the next step, he needed to learn to walk more. Going into 2009, Borbon knows that he can hit good pitching and that he will have to increase his walk-rate if he wants to continue to move up the ladder.
Regarding Perez, the only 17 yo, A- comp that I’ve looked at is Felix Hernandez and, frankly, the two are not even remotely comparable. IIRC, Hernandez had an 11+ K/9 and ~2.00 ERA in the Northwest League as a 17 yo. I am hopeful that Perez is going to develop into a TORG, but I am not yet convinced.
by spurdynasty on Nov 25, 2008 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
With all this great dicsussion on Julio
I’m starting to think that maybe I should have voted for Borbon here instead of Perez. Oh well… I’ll just vote for him next time, Perez is killing the opposition in this poll anyway.
by JimBonnick84 on Nov 25, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions
I agree
with a lot of that, and really I just wanted to push the discussion. Borbon is probably my next vote, though I’m considering both Hurley and Beltre as well. If Borbon is for real we’ll all be doing backflips.
I cannot think of a left-handed 17-yr. old comp for Perez off the top of my head. And that left handedness perhaps makes him more important in Arlington than elsewhere, FWIW. The talk from guys like Adair and the prospect writers makes him seems like a future #2 guy. I’m not sure in my head if that’s more valuable than what we hope Borbon will be, but I’m inclined to think so given the history of pitching in Arlington. OTOH, we have only a very short sample to go on.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Yes.
This bad info is based on a predraft assessment. People who have seen him play in the pros all state his arm is good enough.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I see it as more important than all of the batting stats
Just my view of what a CF should be. The CF is most likely to be in a situation where he will have to throw the ball from 370+ feet to home and to prevent people from tagging. Why is arm strength so low on that list?
How often in a game will the CF field?
How often in a game will the CF bat?
How often in a game will the CF throw to beat a baserunner?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 25, 2008 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
With the offense as it is now
We really shouldn’t be relying on a CF like Borbon to contribute that heavily on offense.
All of those questions depend on the pitching
He’d probably get to bat about 4 times a game in this line-up as a leadoff hitter and get on base 1/3 of the time. With our pitching the way it is right now, I’d guess that he’d get 6 or more opportunities a game to field and maybe 2 times throwing to beat a baserunner. (I have no idea how close these numbers are)
throwing
Sometimes an outfielder doesn’t get two chances to throw to beat a baserunner in a month much less per game.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Well, if his arm is below average
Then I would expect them to run on him more. This depends on how many base runners are allowed to 2nd/3rd base and how much of a FB problem the pitcher has. I say our starting pitching staff has both of those problems.
really?
How many times does it happen? The league leader in assists usually has what..15? Over a full season that means he probably has 30 or so chances to actually throw out a runner. One every 5 games or once a week more or less. So my number was a little off but not too far. Alot closer than twice per game
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
To back up bigsteve...
Here’s a link to THT’s major league assist leaders in all three outfield positions.
Seventeen led the majors. While I love the outfield assist, plus range will make up the difference on an average or slightly below average arm.
assists
Well in most cases the base coaches wouldn’t send a runner unless he feels there is at least a 75% success rate, so the 17 assists probably account for about a quarter of an OFers throws, so you’re up to about 50 or so throws there, then from watching games, I’d estimate that about half of all throws from the OF are cut off, so now the number is at about 100 per year, which sounds about right.
Just go pick a ML game at random and watch closely, odds are that the CF has to make at least 1-2 throws to keep a runner from taking an extra base. It happens nearly every game.
Now I agree that range is much more important than a CF arm, but this talk of OF arm being irrelevant, or only being used sporadicly throughout the season just seems like hogwash to me.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
Cutoff throws count as assists too
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Only Josh Hamilton throwing bengie molina out at home can throw a guy out from 370+ feet
CFers very rarely get a legit shot to throw a guy out at home. Arm strength is the least valuable tool for a CFer
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
can we call him a plus CF?
with below average arm strength?
I understand that a rangey flycatcher is a good thing, but I keep seeing him referred to as a plus CF, or plussy-plus-plus in some cases, and I’m not sure I’m comfortable applying those labels to a guy that is going to give up tons of extra bases due to a weak arm.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
Are you sure about the arm strength?
I’ve heard many reports on his arm strength that ranges from below average to average. If he’s average, his defense will be amazing. If its below average, its still plus fielding. CF arm strength just doesn’t knock him down enough IMO when you consider his other defensive tools.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Guys aren't going to take extra bases on him
Not any more often then they would anyway. Only it may look like it because instead of allowing a ball to go to the wall for a double he may be able to cu it off before it gets to the wall. The runner is still gonna get a double it will just look closer.
You make it sound like on simple rollers up the middle hes gonna need a cut off man to throw to 2nd and guy are just gonna take 2 bases everytime.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Baseball Prospectus
did a study in last year’s book that showed that the difference in an above average OF arm and a below average OF arm is worth somewhere around 11 runs over the course of a season. That’s a lot.
And your suggestion that teams won’t take extra bases on an OF with a weak arm doesn’t make sense to me.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
That study
How many of those guys had the speed and range that Borbon had?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Extra bases
Well think about it. A ball is hit to the gap. Its gonna be a double 98% of the time. Most CFs don’t have the speed to cut it off before it gets to the wall. Borbon may be able to cut it off but that doesn’t mean hes gonna be able to throw the guy out even with a good arm.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
what about the guy on first
who hasn’t yet reached third, but goes ahead and takes a big turn and heads home, knowing that the CF isn’t going to be able to get the ball back in with a strong throw?
Probably no way that I’m going to convince you that an OFers arm strength makes a big difference, but I think it does.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
an OF arm makes a difference
but once again I ask, how many of those runs that a poor CF arm is supposed to cost a team came from a CF who has shown great speed and range?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
How many poor armed CFs
also have bad range? I’m guessing just about zero.
Neftali Feliz is not a swimmer.
by NoNameOnCard on Nov 25, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
not necessarily bad range
but Borbon’s range is supposed to be amazing.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
What are the other OFers doing
at that time, pulling their puds?
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Huh?
Are you suggesting that a corner OF runs to CF and takes the ball from Borbon to throw it back in? or what? I don’t follow what the other OFers are supposed to do to help a weak armed CF get the ball back in?
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
I think he's talking about
the many, many times where the ball gets hit to the left or right sides of the outfield.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I'm lost
I thought it was pretty obvious that the arm strength of the CF is not a factor on balls hit the the corner OFers.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
The gaps
If the ball is hit in the gap and a stronger throw may be required the CF may allow the COF to get it if they are close enough to throw. I think thats what is meant.
Balls hit directly at the CF generally won’t go for doubles. A dribbler up the middle won’t turn into a double just because the CF has a less than average arm.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Shoulda been
the SS/2B.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Yes.
You can be a plus centerfielder without the arm strength, as long as you make enough other plays to compensate.
We’ll find out with Borbon.
Arm
It’s true that Borbon does not have a very strong arm, but It takes more than just a strong arm to throw out runners/deter advancement from the OF. I’m just not sold that his throwing is a liability.
Borbon has a knack for putting himself in good positions to throw. He also has a very smooth glove-to-hand transfer, a quick release, and he puts the ball on target. His throws might not be lasers, but they aren’t exactly Ecksteinian shot-puts either.
by jparks77 on Nov 26, 2008 9:52 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs
I'm reccing this
Because of the Ecksteinian shot-puts line.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
I'm reccing this
So everyone will STFU about his arm strength, and listen to people who know what they are talking about.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
You should make
The shot-puts line your sig. Or maybe I will.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Tricer definitely knows what he's talking about
We just happen to have different views on Borbon’s arm.
I'm not singling out anyone
least of all Todd. Just pointing out the fact that several say his arm is good enough.
I think most of the “arm” ideas stem from his predraft report, and that is old news at this point.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I voted Borbon as well
sure the guy has a few flaws – his arm isn’t stellar, and he doesn’t walk all that much. But he’s knocking at the door of the big leagues within 2 years of being drafted and is showing just about everything you could hope for frmo him (other than walks)
I think he still leaves a bad taste in people’s mouths from when he was rumored to be our 1st pick in 2007. But as you point out here, he’s already one of the better CF prospects in the game, and we’re only voting for #8 in the organization here.
why does everyone ignore Borbon's stats
from Bakersfield last year? Every mention of Borbon talks up the 60 games of 838 OPS in Frisco, while failing to mention the 66 games of 741 OPS in the Cal League.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
I left out the High A numbers to simply the comparison to other players
Splitting time between A+ and AA, Borbon posted a line of 321/362/425/787 with 53 steals. That is comparable to his AA numbers and competitive with the other top CF prospects. I restricted the post to AA numbers so that you can directly compare numbers from the same level for other prospects (except for McCutchen and Granderson). It is probably a bigger problem that I did not try to normalize for league and park differences, but I was just trying to provide a way to quickly compare all of the CF prospects at similar ages and levels.
by spurdynasty on Nov 25, 2008 11:39 AM CST up reply actions
Well, one important thing to remember when including the A+ level stats
is that he made improvements going from A+ to AA, the hardest jump in the minors, in his first full pro season. Improving your OPS by nearly 100 points while jumping to AA ball after just 66 games at high A is pretty darn impressive.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Bakersfield
I may be remembering wrong but doesn’t Bakersfields field hurt guys like Borbon? Something about a weird layout that could hurt extra base hits for a guy like Borbon. Not necessarily a home run hitter but a doubles, slap type hitter.
I could easily be misremembering though.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Afraid not
Bakersfield has pretty short dimensions, which would make you think it depresses doubles, but that’s not the case. It tends to play favorably for homers, neutral for doubles, and slightly unfavorable for BABIP. Borbon hit 11 doubles at home, 9 on the road while in the Cal League.
Obama thinks he is a good talker, but he is often undisciplined when he speaks. He needs to understand that as President, his words will be scrutinized and will have impact whether he intends it or not. In this regard, President Bush is an excellent model; Obama should take a lesson from his example. -- John Hinderacker
Hugely surprised
Borbon is third in voting for this, and by such a huge margin…
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
Vote
Julio Borbon.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
My vote
I’m curious how long I get to vote for Hurley since I got to vote Smoak 3x then Max 4x, now Hurley 5x?
Hopefully a long time
a #4 starter with fly ball tendencies has no place near the Top 10 in a system this deep.
I see you went with Perez
Just as a fun exercise what do you put the odds on him making just the 4 starts in the bigs that Hurley made this year at? For a LA teenager, even a great one, it is pretty low usually.
A good #4 starter, since you apparently think Hurley is peaked at 22, is still worth quite a bit. If he is even an average starter that gets you 180 innings a year that is at least a $5.5 million value a year times 6 years.
I don’t get it.
I think he can very easily be a good number 3.
He did strikeout 8+ batters per 9 in AAA last year and is still only 24.
People get so down on pitchers when they struggle with the AAA/MLB jumps (like Boston fans right now with Buccholz), but the good ones figure it out.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 25, 2008 7:25 PM CST up reply actions
Jump Struggles
He struggled with the AA/AAA jump. That’s a big difference. Until he starts turning some of those home runs allowed into fly ball outs, I agree with the statement that he’s not a Top 10 guy in this system.
D'oh! I really should look things like that up instead of just trusting my brain muscle.
But, hey. That’s even better, right?
Hurley’s still got a chance to be legit.
I think people are WAY too down on the kid right now.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 26, 2008 12:44 AM CST up reply actions
Neil Ramirez
You left him out this time.
"Yeah, like I had a chance there" - Lancaster batter, after striking out against Derek Holland
Dang, my bad.
I double checked but still missed him.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 25, 2008 7:25 PM CST up reply actions
MarPer
I really had trouble with this one but I think in the end all the love here for Perez won me over.
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
I wanted to vote for Hurley so bad
but my finger just kept going towards Perez.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Our results
show our desperation for stud pitching. When you step back and think about it, DHolland, NFeliz, and MPerez still have a lot to prove.
That can be said for pretty much everyone
minus a small handful of pitchers taken in the early first round of each year’s draft, most of these guys always have to develop their secondary pitches more and prove themselves until they make it.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Beltre
If Borbon gets on before him, I’m gonna have to choke a bitch.
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. Back to Suckville with a loss to FLA ATL but whatever, SUCK IT WESTERN KENTUCKY! 1-9 baby!
Seriously though
if people are going on upside, and by voting for Perez they are…. There is no way Borbon can be ahead of Beltre.
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. 45 given up in the 1st quarter. Wow. But still we're better than Washington! Oh and, SUCK IT WESTERN KENTUCKY! 1-10 baby!
Well, obviously,
people are considering factors other than just upside. If upside were the only consideration Beltre and Perez might both be in the top 3 or 4.
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You're right of course
I’m not a Borbon hater. And Borbon did have a successful first full season (sans the walks), and as spurdynasty pointed out, he fared better than a lot of other top CF prospects out there. I just have a hard time putting him ahead of Beltre. Beltre is so toolsy! I love tools.
Don’t mark that Grubes.
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. 45 given up in the 1st quarter. Wow. But still we're better than Washington! Oh and, SUCK IT WESTERN KENTUCKY! 1-10 baby!
Beltre
I have Perez, Borbon, and Beltre 8-10 and all could be interchangable. Went Perez first because he had such a good year for a 17 year old against much older competition. Prior to the AFL I would have had beltre above Borbon but borbon showed me that he could adapt and learn something if he needs to. Like someone said either here or another thread I think Borbon went into the year wanting to show he could hit pro pitching and use his speed on offense and defense. He did that. But in doing so he probably sacrificed in other areas mainly his walk totals. He went into the AFL focused on improving that and he did. Now if the first half of next year he doesn’t keep that up then at the idway poll next season Beltre will probably jump him. but right now I gotta go Borbon first the Beltre.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I love playing devil's advocate
I’d argue we’ve seen much more this season (and in the fall as well) to be sure of Borbon reaching his ceiling than Beltre reaching his. If Borbon has a problem drawing enough walks, Beltre has a problem recognizing what a walk is. I will vote for Beltre and Borbon both in the next couple of votes, but Beltre has a long way to go.
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VERY
long way. Lotsa guys on here really seem sold this kid is Griffey, but I have a really hard time voting for uber-young prospects b/c there’s like <5% chance those guys even become big league starters, even with Martin’s and Engel’s talent. It’s not like Borbon doesn’t have HUGE upside… he looks to me like a Kenny Lofton clone
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
Yessir.
Of course, there is always two camps in these rankings: developed/talented/close to helping the big club – vs – ultimate ceiling/raw toolsy-ness.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Heh, yah if it were up to me we'd never be allowed to mention Griffey's name about a toolsy young OF'er until he does something incredible on the field.
Griffey hit .338/.431/.575/.1006 as an 18 year old in A+.
The next season he hit .264/.329/.420/.749 as a big leaguer. Didn’t hit 20 ’till the season ended. Griffey was an off the charts special prospect. Comping Beltre to Griffey insults them both.
The only guy who even sort deserved a Griffey comp over the last decade or so that I can think of was Justin Upton.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 25, 2008 7:33 PM CST up reply actions
It'd be like telling that fat white chick with the dreadlocks at the pool she reminds you of Jessica Alba in that bikini.
It’s not true.
It’s just mean.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 26, 2008 12:42 AM CST up reply actions
But
calling him a fat white chick with dreadlocks isn’t insulting?
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A better analogy
given his problem drawing walks might be a fat white chick that doesn’t swallow.
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What the hell are we talking about at this point?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 26, 2008 12:26 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know
but there’s no way in hell I’m voting for the chick in dreadlocks, she doesn’t make my top 30.
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That violates LSB CPP Rule #1: If she puts out, you put her on the damn list.
And trust me, that chick slings it around.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 26, 2008 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
one night of good times though
is not worth the sting you feel afterwards though.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
That's not what your mother said.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 26, 2008 2:17 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
If she puts out
it doesn’t mean she ranks ahead of the 30 others that also do.
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+1
" He throws it where he wants it, his breaking ball kept getting better and better and of course God gave him that special arm. He's great." ~ Neftali Feliz on Derek Holland.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 25, 2008 10:37 AM CST up reply actions
Boscan is #10 on my list
I was really impressed with his pitches and his approach in the two games against Boise.
by spurdynasty on Nov 25, 2008 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
I see Boscan
missing the top 10 in this list for sure. Perez here. Borbon, Beltre and (sigh) Hurley will all get love for 9 and 10.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 25, 2008 12:20 PM CST up reply actions
question for prospect-o-philes
Is it a common phenomena for a pitcher to have reports of good or plus secondary pitches while in the low minors, only to see those same secondary pitches grade out much lower when the pitcher reaches more advanced levels?
I seem to recall some instances of hearing about certain guys having a plus change or breaking ball in the short season leagues or A-ball, then a couple years later in AA those pitches aren’t considered to be of the same quality.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
Yes
Usually pitches are graded for their potential when they’re in the lower minors (for the most part). It’s harder to judge just how good a pitch will be at that point. So you can say a guy has a plus slider at Clinton (or Hickory) only to see the slider stagnate and be rated as average at Frisco. It’s about how much they improve a “plus” pitch. At least that’s how it’s written about for the most part. Only the real experts can tell if a pitch is truly “plus” and will continue to be.
by Andy Seiler on Nov 25, 2008 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
I will cite the case of Rob Bell.
He had a Major League plus-plus curveball… and it just flat out disappeared. There are lots of factors that can contribute to this, one of which is actual physical changes that take place: continued growth, strength, conditioning, changes in mechanics, as well as the abnormal growth and damage caused by high-intensity throwing.
Usually it’s a combination of these things. Typically, a minor leaguer’s mechanics are under fairly constant tweaking (if not bigger changes) as part of his development. The slightest change in release point and finger pressure can dramatically alter the effectiveness of a breaking pitch.
The pitchers with a good feel for the art and a good amount of athletic ability are better able to make the adjustments necessary to keep those pitches working.
In the same way, a lot of pitchers actually discover that previously horrible pitches have become much, much better after mechanical adjustments. Case in point, Thomas Diamond’s new curve ball.
Neftali Feliz is not a swimmer.
by NoNameOnCard on Nov 25, 2008 12:12 PM CST up reply actions
Nice Comp
Rob Bell is the definition of good stuff disappearing.
by Andy Seiler on Nov 25, 2008 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
I remember the Bell curve
It was generally a 58 foot pitch when he threw it for Texas.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
But his FIP was incredible ;)
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 26, 2008 1:16 AM CST up reply actions
Has it occured to anyone
that the number of votes that a player gets on the community project is heavily dependent on who finished 2nd or 3rd on the last ballot?
"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer
Technically, it's a correlation, and not a dependent relationship.
I’m feeling picky today. Sue me.
Neftali Feliz is not a swimmer.
by NoNameOnCard on Nov 25, 2008 12:14 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, but it could be...
If the results weren’t public I think things could end up a little bit different – with votes more widespread. Here you see the guys finishing 2nd and 3rd and I’m sure there are some people who start getting a little bit of “that’s who I should be voting for next” mentality.
But yes, mainly it’s correlation.
www.mavsmoneyball.com
I dunno...
I voted Perez at 6 when he received less than 10% in the number 5 poll. Alot of folks voted MRam at 6 and he had 7% in the #5 poll. Someone run the numbers.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 25, 2008 12:26 PM CST up reply actions
btw - I voted Perez here because...
A vote for Perez is a vote for a promising17 yr old lefty with three plus pitches.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 25, 2008 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
Boscan
I’ve voted for Boscan twice now.
by Andy Seiler on Nov 25, 2008 12:28 PM CST up reply actions
Why should that be a surprise?
There is at least some agreement about the general area that a lot of these guys fit in. Everyone here, for example, probably has Borbon somewhere in the 7-12 range, say, so of course he will start getting more votes even as Max is getting voted on finally (after his support rose from vote to vote. What about any of that is surprising?
And as No Name says, it’s not dependent.
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Perez
Went with him again. After this one is where it gets interesting for me. I think I will have to go Borbon next then probably Beltre, Boscan, Kiker, Beavan, NeRa, Hurley
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Gimme a double shot of Borbon!
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Nov 25, 2008 1:59 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
This made me laugh
Extremely hard. Nice one.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Didn't miles say
something about Hurley not being very good?
Probably insures that Hurley will be a star.
He said the same thing about Dutch not too long ago as well
Oh, and Andrus too. So we’re sitting pretty as far as Miles predictions go.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Quick, Miles
say how awesome it is that HH has so many usernames.
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by t ball on Nov 26, 2008 12:03 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Arias
does anyone know why he has only appeared in that one winter ball game? All that talk about how he was deemed healthy enough to play SS, then he gets into one game at 2B and disappears. At least Cruz, MaxRam and Salty are having solid winters. Those are bats this team really needs to emerge.
Hm.
In comparison with my personal top 8, the only match is Smoak at #3.
Don't hold us in suspense like that, broseph.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 26, 2008 12:48 AM CST up reply actions
Hey dirk
New poll time yet? Perez took this without much contest.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Yup, working on it now.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 26, 2008 1:01 AM CST up reply actions
:(
I probably could’ve worded that to sound less self-important but you know what I mean.
No I'm genuinely interested.
I like seeing where others rank guys.
Holland-Feliz-Smoak-Max-Andrus-Main-Borbon-Perez-Teagarden-Beavan top ten for me… at this very moment.
I reserve the right to change it seven second after I hit post ;)
Main/Borbon and Teagarden/MPer give me trouble, as does C-Wun over Hurley/Beltre/Boscan/Kiker for 10.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 26, 2008 1:12 AM CST up reply actions
Oh
Feliz
Holland
Smoak
Andrus
Main
Perez
Beltre
Teagarden
Max Ramirez
Neil Ramirez
Mine currently looks like:
1. Dutch
2. Neftali
3. Smoak
4. Main
5. Elvis
6. Max
7. Perez
8. Borbon
9. Tea
10. Undecided, but right now it’s between Beltre, Hurley and Boscan.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Wow. No Borbon in the top ten. Interesting.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 26, 2008 2:29 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not buying into the increased patience yet.
If he does it in Oklahoma, that’s a different story. At the moment, it seems to me like his floor is Juan Pierre circa 2006 (with better defense) and his ceiling is (optimistically) Carl Crawford circa 2007. I’m not all that enthused about a guy like that. I’d probably have him after Boscan and Hurley, around the 13-15 range.
It might be interesting to see a fan poll asking this question:
Which player do you feel is at least 5 spots too high in the ranking?
"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer
Good idea
but we might want to wait until we’ve ranked 15-20, because I think a lot of us don’t see much issue with the guys so far, at least in terms of being in the general area that they are.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 27, 2008 1:13 AM CST up reply actions
Rankings
I think once we got to around #12 last year we started seeing guys being ranked oddly. Once you get past the top 10 theres enough drop off that it makes guys harder to rank.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
The only guy so far that I feel was way to high is Teagarden
But I still have him about #9, so that’s not really a 5-spot dropoff. Overall I think the community has been pretty dead-on with their rankings.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
I think we've done this enough times now
and been talking about these guys so much over the last couple of years, that there is less of that now. I think we’ve discussed strengths and weaknesses and how prospects develop that we have a bit more of a consensus than in past polls. But your idea is still a good one for the wrap up discussion.
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