LSB Community Prospect Project: #12
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 3:16 AM CST
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Print11 down, a lot more to go.
After 227 votes, Engel Beltre has won the right to be called the LSB Community #11 prospect!
Engel failed to reach 50% of the votes, but he did manage to open up a pretty good lead of C1 by the end of things.
The list so far:
1. LHP, Derek Holland.
2. RHP, Neftali Feliz
3. 1b, Justin Smoak
4. RHP, Michael Main
5. SS, Elvis Andrus
6. C, Taylor Teagarden
7. C, Maximiliano Ramirez
8. LHP, Martin Perez
9. OF, Julio Borbon
10. RHP, Eric Hurley
11. OF, Engel Beltre
Time to move on to the vote for #12.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
NOTE: There has been some speculation as to what the criteria are for this vote. Should guys who have spent time in the bigs be involved in "prospect" discussions? For the sake of this exercise we're taking what the guys have done in the big leagues and using the BA prospect formula of 130 AB's or 50 ip. If a guy is under those limits, he's still a prospect and he goes on the poll. It's that simple.
Resources:
- MJH's prospect previews for the DMN Blog:
- 11 Weeks of FFG (Prelude to Prospects Lists below)
- RH Starters 1-5
- RH Starters 6-10
- RH Starters 11-15
- LH Starters 1-5
- LH Starters 6-10
- Relievers 1-5
- Catchers
Jason Parks and Joey Matschulat's Top 25 list from their excellent Rangers' site, BBTiA.com.
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BITW.
Believe.
In.
The.
Wonderful.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
Would y'all be in favor of me adding the stats of everyone currently on each poll to the post?
There’s around 20 guys on the poll at any given time so it’d make it a ton longer so you’d have to scroll down super far to get to the poll and to the comments section.
Is that something y’all would like, or would it would just make things super annoying having to scroll for 13 straight seconds just to get to the poll?
Interested in as much input as possible here.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
Nah
Maybe providing a link to Fangraphs or something wouldn’t be a bad thing, but I don’t see the need to directly link to each guys stats. Make the masses do their own legwork.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
I'd cut the list to 10 guys on the poll at any given time
when and if you decide to do stat commentary. I just think it would be more digestible that way.
We don’t need recent stats on the first 10 so much as the next 20, imo.
Bring up Matt West '09
by inactive lsb user on Nov 29, 2008 4:42 AM CST up reply actions
I wouldn't cut the list
Maybe when we were in the top 10 you could have done it but right now there are so many legitimate choices I don’t think you can trim the list
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Also I added Wieland this time.
Is there anyone else y’all are wanting to vote for anytime soon that you aren’t seeing?
Feel free to voice your opinion.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
If you reply to yourself anymore...
I’ll slap you with the dreaded HH “drinking and posting” award.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
When are you planning
on stopping this Dirk? If we’re going 30 deep, then I’d like Phillips added after a while.
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. 45 given up in the 1st quarter. Wow. But still we're better than Washington! Oh and, SUCK IT WESTERN KENTUCKY! 1-10 baby!
Welp, this is it
The big showdown: Boscan vs. Beavan
I would personally rank the B’s Boscan/Beav/Beltre.
My concern about Beav, copied/pasted from the last thread:
FIP was a full run and a half higher than his pretty little ERA (3.87 vs. 2.37) while and his BABIP was pretty low (.256). That not-so-wonderful blemish makes me wonder a bit if he’ll maintain that GB ratio next year, especially if his velocity doesn’t return.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Why would a low BABIP mean he would have trouble keeping his GB ratio?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 4:04 AM CST up reply actions
Well from my limited understanding of the stat
Isn’t a .256 BABIP pretty hard for anybody to maintain? I don’t know how good the Clinton defense was, but that would seem to indicate a biy of luck, especially looking at his FIP.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Yah, sure. That's tough to maintain.
Though it’s worth noting that in addition to his 46.6% gb, his 14.9 LD% is really, really low, too. So it’s not like it’s a total fluke or anything. Going by GDawg and Trizzle’s rule of how the BABIP should always be exactly .12 above LD%, his BABIP should’ve been about .270. So a little lucky, I suppose.
I just don’t see how him having a low BABIP this year in anyway leads you to believe his GB% is unsustainable.
I’d like to understand your reasoning.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 5:14 AM CST up reply actions
What I was thinking
Is that the big FIP and low BABIP might’ve indicated that defense/luck had a lot to do with his numbers and that perhaps there where a good amount of GBs that might start turning into hits the next time around. Perhaps I’ve misinterperted/overinterpeted that though (I admit, I’m really still only beginning to understand the wide world of stats and sabermetrics) – really I’m just trying to rationalize how he can have that big honkin’ FIP when all his other stats are so damned pretty.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
The GB ratio stays the same
the number of those that turn into hits could go up with a higher BABIP, but he would still get the same amount.
The FIP is probably due to the low K rates. Its not a bad FIP, but its not as great as his low ERA. Remember that FIP is based just on his peripherals (HRs, BBs, Ks and maybe HBPs too). So since Beavan was mainly having success off of low HR and BB rates, the low K rate affects how good his FIP could be.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
To further clarfiy what GDawg said...
GB rate doesn’t refer to the amount of groundball outs, just the amount of groundballs. Some of those are hits, some are outs. Same with flyball rate or line drive rate.
And, yes, the high FIP/tRA relative to his ERA is due mostly to the low K. His K needs to come up if he wants to be more than a 3/4.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
I changed my vote
from Beavan last time to Boscan. Spent about 10 minutes comparing their stats on minorleaguesplits and Boscan looks sexy. This is really close, and Kiker and Ramirez are right behind. That’s 15 deep and a ton of pitching.
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
Hey, did you know 11 is still open?
I just gave Beltre another vote.
Clearly it will make no difference, I’m just up late and didn’t get to vote in that one.
Yah I have it set to close automatically sometime.
I’ve never really bothered to figure out how to close it manually. Looking at the editing options I’m not 100% sure whether closing the poll would delete it or just close the poll to future voting.
Either way it’ll be closed soon.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 5:08 AM CST up reply actions
I didnt vote for him
but I wouldnt be surprised if Diamond helped this club this year. Not saying he is number 12, but these are the type of comments you make when you wake up at 5:30 am on a saturday
Geez
So much for that showdown I’d hoped for. Beav is pulling away rather quickly.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Don't get me wrong because I LOVE the Rangers' system right now,
but anyone else think we are a little heavy in pitching? I have no idea what I would do about it or if I would because it’s pitching. Just thinking aloud.
Go Wonder Boy.
Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador
you can never have enough pitching
In reference to how good the Steelers have been in their history: "No one is even close to them."- Steal Home
you can never have enough pitching
/stealhome
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 29, 2008 6:04 PM CST up reply actions
pitching
Not that we’ll never need the position player depth…but right now we’re pretty flush with major league talent on the field in Arlington. What we’re missing is pitching depth on the mound in Arlington. It’s much easier and cheaper to pick up that missing piece in a position player on the FA market or trade market, but its MUCH tougher to pick up that pitcher you really need….
though….that trade Tampa made last winter getting Garza and Bartlett for Young and change was a steal…
"a little heavy in pitching?"
Drunk on a Saturday morning…for shame!
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Boscan's numbers are just ridiculous
This is the guy Ranger fans are going to be talking about next year.
Beavan’s got to show me the velocity again. Boscan just needs to keep doing what he’s been doing.
12) Boscan
13) Beavan
14) Hunter
15) Vallejo
16) Gomez
17) Ramirez
18) Madrigal
19) Font
20) Ross
Your 12-15...
is exactly how mine is.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Bunch of freaking Kiker haters in here...
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 6:36 PM CST up reply actions
This is only the second time
the guy I voted for didn’t win (the other one being when Teagarden won over Max). Voted for Beavan again and hopefully he doesn’t lose this lead.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
C-Wun
for the Win.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
This is a tough one here
Beavan had a really good year despite his velocity drop, and Boscan put up some insane numbers himself, albeit in short-season ball. I like them both a lot, but every ranking I’ve seen this offseason (meaning Hindman and the BBTiA guys) have Boscan ahead of Beavan, so I’m going to defer to the experts here and say Boscan.
Kiker
I’m surprised how few votes he’s gotten.
He goes on next for me.
There’s a big case to be made for him here.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
theres a big case to be made
for boscon, he’s young and he’s latin whats not to like?
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
For me
I lean more towards the proven commodity. So when you are talking about guys that have the potential for the top of the rotation, if you’re not too old, I look at what level they are at. Kiker is going to be pitching in Frisco this season. Boscan just isn’t likely to go past A ball this year barring some Feliz-like breakout season.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
understandable
but when the argument comes between boscan and beavan i think the proven commodity thing goes out the window since they both have relatively the same amount of experience.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
Beavan pitched almost twice the number of innings and did in a much tougher league.
Experience wise I’d give a pretty clear advantage to Beavan.
That being said, I totally agree there’s a case to be made for Boscan. Great ratios and glowing scouting reports from a young guy. Lots and lots of ceiling there. My current next three are Beavan, Kiker, Boscan and then hell I don’t know. This shit is getting tough. Poveda, NeRa, Ross, Font, Madrigal, Hunter and Vallejo could all make pretty convincing cases for the next vote after those three hop off. Heck, so could a lot of other guys. I repeat: This shit is getting tough.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 2:18 PM CST up reply actions
Boscan pitched in the DSL the previous year
And kept up his peripherials going to the NWL so I think the experience angle is a wash
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Okay. I disagree with your conclusion, but I see where you're coming from.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions
Personally
I want to see how these guys hold up playing a full season which is why I give Beavan the edge. He played a full season in the league and faced the same hitters multiple times throughout the season. He didn’t really get tired, players didn’t exactly figure him out, and I think those two things are huge for young pitchers.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I agree
But then again Boscan has played two seasons of short season ball and is still 9 months younger than Beavan is and Beavan has one full year under his belt. Either one is a good pick here really.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
i agree
just seems people discount boscan saying he doesnt have as much experience as beavan which he does, just not 1 full season in a league
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
There's a big difference with that
1 full season in one league vs. playing in some short season ball for 2 straight years is not nearly the same outside of total playing time.
bigsteve, the age thing is irrelevant IMO. 3/4 of a year doesn’t make a difference.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
But
Boscan is going to be pitching at the same level as Beavan was at the same age. Doesn’t that make a difference? Boscan has proven himself against pro hitters, and this past year in a much older league than his age.
Age
Well Beavan played in the MWL all season at 19 years old. If Boscan plays at Hickory next year he will play all year as a 19 year old.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
9 months is 9 months
As I said, I don’t see that being worthy of a mention. I’m not saying vote for Beavan because he played in the MWL at the age of 19.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
9 months is 9 months...
and the rabbit died…you in big trouble now, mofo!
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Boscan
I’m big on Boscan, because there’s really nothing not to like about him at this point. He’s been durable so far, throws a ton of strikes, strikes people out, gets a ton of ground balls, and he’s not hit hard. Add that to the fact that most scouting reports all almost completely positive, too. There’s really nothing to like.
In opposition, we’ve seen a big hole in Beavan’s game with the scouting side of his game concerning his pure stuff and velocity. He didn’t strike out many as a result (in a pitcher’s league), and his BABIP is not sustainable. That being said, you have to continue to be high on Beavan due to his success despite those factors in a full-season league at age 19.
But those are the reasons why I think Boscan is the better prospect despite not pitching in a full-season league.
I'll be my own bandwagon here
Something that many of the pitchers on this list lack is a true off speed pitch, which I think Ramirez has/will have in his curveball. His command was shaky but it was in limited action in his first pro innings. I think he is highly underated around here.
by groundingout on Nov 29, 2008 10:38 PM CST up reply actions
being ranked in the 10-15 range
in this system is far far from being overrated. Everyone likes NeRa round these parts….
You're not the only one.
I voted for Ramirez too.
i went with beavan
after beavan imo there are about 6 to 8 guys that a case could very easily be made for
Osuna is a 23 year old
who has only had success in Clinton and saw a huge drop off in his numbers when promoted to Bakersfield. He doesn’t hit HRs, doesn’t have much speed, and is old for his level. I don’t see him being in the top 30 of this system. Maybe he’ll crack the top 40, but there are a lot of pitchers who I think will make more of an impact on this team than Osuna.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Is he in your top 20?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 3:26 PM CST up reply actions
Yes I think so
I haven’t actually compiled a top 20 in a while, but I believe he would be. Frankly I’m not sure that he wouldn’t be above Hunter, I think he would be ahead of Poveda, and I’d obviously have him ahead of Diamond. I may be overdoing it, since he is reminiscent of Hunter in some ways, but it does seem like observers really liked what they saw from him. I’m still not sure that I buy Hunter as more than a very back end starter, and athletic lefties with FBs into the 90s and a good curve are pretty darn enticing.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 5:13 PM CST up reply actions
Hunter
I hate to shuffle guys to the pen before you have to, but I really think Hunter is a guy that can be a huge asset out of the pen, possibly as soon as next year if they utilize him that way.
In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.
I think he could be too
but I don’t mind the practice much. There are guys who shouldn’t be handled that way, but I think it is a good way for some others to learn and contribute at the same time.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 8:50 PM CST up reply actions
Hunter
I actually kind of like the thought of him as a swing man, 6th starter sometime in 2009 and definitely 2010. I think he’s tough enough to handle that kind of odd usage pattern and be pretty good doing it. I see no signs the team won’t need that kind of depth again this coming season, and in 2010 it may be that he’d make the rotation on some teams but be pushed out depth wise here (we hope, anyway).
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
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