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Rangers vs A's community rankings

Well since I woke up early and can't sleep, I figured I would compare the two best farm systems top 10 prospects based on community rankings. (I had to project 9 and 10 for the A's based on current voting)

1. Derek Holland vs. Trevor Cahill

Cahill takes this one rather easily IMO. Holland has the better velocity on his fastball but Cahill's has the great sink and his best secondary pitch is rated higher than Holland's is.

Edge: A's

2. Neftali Feliz vs. Brett Anderson

Polish vs. upside here? Not that Anderson's upside isn't real good himself but Feliz has the better upside here, but I think Anderson is one of the safest bests in minor league baseball to be an average to above average MLB starter. Feliz needs to improve his secondary offerings (he's still very young, plenty of time) but Anderson gets the edge here as well. It also has been mentioned many times but it shouldn't be overlooked, Anderson's thumb injury likely caused his A+ numbers to look worse than they were.

Edge: A's

3. Justin Smoak vs. Chris Carter

Is Carter a 3T player? Probably not fair to give him that label yet but he does strike out a lot. He also draws a good amount of walks though, which leads me to believe that he is often working deep into counts, thus drawind lots of walks and striking out a lot. At 21 Chris Davis put up a line of .298/.340/.573/.913 in A+ while Chris Carter put up a line of .259/.361/.569/.930 at 21 in A+. It was after he left A+ that Davis' stock really begin to rise but Carter is on the right path. Have to go mostly off of scouting reports to compare Smoak as his playing time was limited. Projected as a guy who can work the count, put up a solid average, hit 35+ homers while playing average to above average defense at first. His stats in A ball were pretty good and though not much stock should be put into AFL numbers, it was good to see him do well there as he doesn't have many other pro ab's to go on.

Edge: Rangers

4. Michael Main vs. Aaron Cunningham

This one is difficult. All Cunningham has ever done is hit but what does he project to be as a big leaguer? 18 is his highest HR total in a season and his steal amounts have never been great. A guy like Andre Ethier comes to mind as an upside comp (who is a pretty good player). Michael Main has good command of a low to mid 90's fastball (I always find that mot scouting reports overstate a guy's velocity but this is accurate for Main) and unlike the two Ranger pitcher above him on this list he has two other pitchers that have been deemed major league ready.

Edge: Rangers

5. Elvis Andrus vs. Gio Gonzalez

Andrus is a defensive whiz with good speed. The bat? Well we'll see where that is headed but right now he doesn't project to have much power. He has always been young for his league but sometimes that has been the best thing going for him. If he doesn't add any power but can maintain a near league average batting average and continue to draw walks, with his defense and speed that is a pretty valuable player. It seems to me that Gio gets a bit of a shaft when it comes to rankings. I personally would have him ahead of Cunningham. He has always had a real good K-rate but has also had a some control problems, which always seem to get magnified in a young pitcher when first entering MLB. I expect him to have better control and better results next season.

Edge: Rangers

6. Taylor Teagarden vs. Adrian Cardenas

I think Teagarden gets overvaled some due to his hot hitting in his short MLB debut. He is what he is though, a good defensive catcher who will probably strike out too much, hit for a below average batting average, draw some walks and have above average pop for a catcher. Cardenas is similiar to Cunningham for me in that he doesn't hit for much power or show good speed, but he does hit, and is young enough to still add some power, though he doesn't appear to be the hitter that Teagarden is. Due to defensive abilities and importance of posistion the edge goes to Teagarden.

Edge: Rangers

7. Max Ramirez vs. Sean Doolittle

IMO, this is the second one that is not close. Max has always hit well and has a chance to play catcher, though likely below average defensively, and even if he is relegated to DH, his bat projects to play there. Doolittle has yet to put up an OPS above .800 anywhere other than the Cal League. Doolttle was pretty good in the AFL this year but again, not much stock can be put into those numbers.

Edge: Rangers

8. Martin Perez vs. James Simmons

This is a hard matchup to rate. Perez is the young lefty with a fastball that might already have as good or better velocity than Simmons (reports are that Simmons sits at 88-90, help me out A's fans, is that true?), and has what some call the best curve in the system. Simmons has shown good control in the minors but has been hittable and hasn't struck out a ton of guys. Unless Simmons can bring up his K rate or drop his hit rate, I don't see how I can rate him ahead of the upside that Perez has.

Edge: Rangers

9. Julio Borbon vs. Vincent Mazzaro

Mazzaro has been hittable and below league average except for 137 in which he cut down his hit rate and had an ERA below 2, though he still did not strike many guys out. I honestly don't know what to make of him. These 137 innings can't be overlooked but niether can the rest of his innings. Borbon plays a good CF, has great speed, and has shown enough pop to not be Juan Pierre. He rarely strikes out but also rarely takes a walk. He showed the ability to take walks in the AFL this year, but I'm skeptical to believe that will continue, though it was good to see that he can change his approach.

Edge: Rangers

10. Eric Hurley vs. Michael Inoa

I've been low on Hurley for awhile since reports were out that his velocity was down in 2007. His K-rate was never great and his AAA showing this year didn't help sway me the other way. Inoa is pretty much all upside and projectibility. He obviously has big time potential but thats all it really is right now. I will be an interested observer.

Edge: A's

Best of the rest (not based on voting, but based on my opinion)

Engel Beltre and Neil Ramirez vs. Henry Rodriguez and Fautino De Los Santos

If you can't tell be now, I prefer upside to safety and am a believer in pitchers that have good fastballs have a much better chance to succeed. Beltre has tons of upside but he has shown a horrible K/BB rate thus far in his career. Plenty young enough to have time to change that. Ramriez has a good fastball and a good curveball and having two pitches at a young allows me to overlook his early control problems and rank him ahead of guys like Beavan and Boscan. Rodriguez seems destined for the pen but he could develop into a knockout closer. His control problems are obvious but his stuff is electric and he still has very good potential. De Los Santos is another guy with electric stuff who is comming off of an injury. If he can rebound fully from his injury he should shoot up this list.

Edge: A's


I'd love to hear feedback, especially from A's fans. I don't know a ton about Simmons and Mazzaro's stuff and that may of made it harder for me to think highly of them. Among other changes in both lists, I would have put H-Rod  and De Los Santos in the A's top 10 as opposed to Simmons and Mazzaro.

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Inoa is you right?

I mean the kid hasn’t thrown a pro pitch yet, right? How could he be 10th? And if so, we got a way better system than the A’s (top to bottom).

Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador

by Parman on Nov 29, 2008 9:20 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Question

On the day Justin Smoak signed, where would you have ranked him amongst the Rangers prospects?

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 29, 2008 10:23 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Apples and oranges

A 16 year old kid and a 21 year old guy who has played major college baseball are not even close to the same thing

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 29, 2008 10:28 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Okay

Let’s say we’d have drafted Eric Hosmer this year. On the day he signed, where would have have ranked amongst the Rangers prospects?

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 29, 2008 11:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Me personally

Probably 8-12

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 29, 2008 1:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

Even though he’s generally viewed as a better prospect than Smoak, who was immediately one of the 3 best prospects in the Ranger system once he signed?

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 29, 2008 1:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just personal preference

I would have ranked him behind (in no particular order) Holland, Feliz, Max, Elvis, Main, and probably Beavan at the midpoint of last year. Persoannly I had Smoak at 4 after he signed behind Holland, Feliz, and Elvis.

Basically any player who is going to take 3+ years to reach the majors, which most all hs players take, will get ranked below guys who could be in the majors in 1-2 years like the highly rated college guys.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 29, 2008 2:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hosmer is 16?

And, I think he played against a little bit better talent…

On Inoa..what where his numbers?

45-35
Jindal '12

by Longhorn on Nov 29, 2008 5:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No where did I say that?

Hosmer is 18, Inoa is 16.

Inoa doesn’t have any numbers because he hasn’t pitched a pro pitch yet

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 29, 2008 6:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

wow bigsteve

wow…despite the fact that he was the 2nd best bat in the draft behind alvarez?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 29, 2008 6:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

His age keeps him from being ahead of guys who have done it against pro players.

But thats just me personally

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 29, 2008 11:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Eric Hosmer...

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 7:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He's underrated, imo.

I’d have him top 5-7 in our system.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 11:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

It doesn’t matter when you are talking about tools, but 16 is a long way away w/out pro exp. to project him a top 10 of an excellent farm system. Aren’t the A’s considered to have an excellent farm system – top 5? If so, I think there is a long way between the A’s and Rangers as Kiker, Boscan, NeRa, Ross, etc. are outside our 10. IMO, looks of ace projection without a scintilla of proof in pro ball leads me to be skeptical.

Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador

by Parman on Nov 30, 2008 11:00 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I do

A 16 year old has a long way to go before becoming a top prospect in a good system. If we were talking about the Tigers, I can see him being right there with Porcello. But we aren’t. In a strong system, a 16 year old has to pitch well before being in the top 5 or so of the rankings.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 30, 2008 12:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You have to prove something

before getting ranked that high in a good system. Even the top college and high school players prove at least something against good competition through different summer leagues and competitions. What do we know about Inoa against real competition?

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 30, 2008 1:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why?

Not to jump in on Adam’s discussion, but all of these guys are ranked on their potential to play in the majors. Guys like Felix Hernandez, Ken Griffey, BJ Upton and Alex Rodriguez had more potential than most prospects before any pro performance in the US. Saying that they have to be artificially and significantly downgraded means that you’re going to misrank top prospects well more often than if you give them some credit for their talent.

Inoa might be overrated. But to think that there is no particular reason that organizations like Oakland and Texas were willing to give him more money than an amateur international FA has ever gotten makes very little sense. You’re not suggesting that he be ranked below other elite talents with more experience, but also mediocre talents with mediocre upsides as well, just because they have played at a higher minor league level. I don’t see a lot of sense in that part.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 2:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

heh

seems like I’ve had this same conversation a few times recently, only with different names each time.

Look at the names you just listed. Outisde of Felix, how many of those guys were put into a system at the age of 16? I don’t feel quite as strong with those top draft picks. Those are the guys that have played against the top high school competition throughout the country in various leagues and games. Its not like you are talking about trying to accurately scout a guy in a game against only whatever high school sophomores are around. With Felix, he obviously proved that he deserved a top ranking pretty quickly into his pro career. I think Inoa could do the same. But as of the moment, there is so much that can go wrong between the time Inoa is put into the system and his ETA that I can’t honestly say that he is a better bet than a Main or Andrus (using our system’s top 5 since I don’t know much about the A’s).

I didn’t say that I think Inoa should be ranked below mediocre talents. I’m saying that when you are looking at a strong system like the ones the A’s and Rangers have, there should be enough elite talent where Inoa wouldn’t crack the top 5. Personally, I think he’s pretty overrated which is why I would probably drop him lower than just a number 6 spot and can understand why he would only be ranked number 10 but I don’t consider my personal rankings to be perfect and would concede that he should be a bit higher than 10.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 30, 2008 2:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So if

Inoa were exactly the same but 18 would you like him better?

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 2:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Personally, I'd say no

but that’s because 16-18 isn’t the big injury nexus, 18-21 is.

It’s possible for guys to be better because they’re older, but this isn’t the right situation for it. However, if you show me 2 guys with identical stats in High-A ball and one is 19 and the other 21, I’ll vote for the 21-year-old as the better prospect because of decreased injury risk.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 30, 2008 2:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i would have to say

nearly everyone would disagree with you there

by dustinvandeman on Nov 30, 2008 3:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

vote for the older guy

just because the injury odds are lower? That’s nuts.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 30, 2008 4:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why is it "nuts"?

ARL is not extraordinarily important for pitchers to begin with, and when you couple that with a specific propensity to suffer serious injuries at a particular age, it makes a lot of sense to give someone credit for surviving that age.

Is it “nuts” that in many premodern societies, a 5-year-old had a longer future life expectancy than a newborn? It’s the same statistical principle.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 30, 2008 5:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sigh

If only you were the actual GM of the A’s.

Damn, would we be set for years …

Bring up Matt West '09

by Chase Irwin on Nov 30, 2008 9:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Your reply to my argument is to insult me?

I guess the point is conceded then?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 30, 2008 10:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha

Why would I ever compete with Paul Thomas?

This is Paul fucking Thomas we are talking about.

No, but even if I did take you seriously, I’m pretty sure that I wouldn’t waste time arguing with somebody who thinks this:

I’ll vote for the 21-year-old as the better prospect because of decreased injury risk.

Bring up Matt West '09

by Chase Irwin on Nov 30, 2008 10:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, so, you're just a fucking jackass

Enjoy life.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 30, 2008 11:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Please Paul, don't indict me!!

Everyone’s gonna read this … everyone!!

Bring up Matt West '09

by Chase Irwin on Nov 30, 2008 11:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i think your ruining the validity of this internet ommunity ranking conversation

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Dec 1, 2008 8:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, whoa

But you’re voting for the 5-yr. old over the infant even if the infant is already achieving what the 5-yr. old is, just because the 5-yr. old has a more developed immune system?

I just don’t like such big, blanket statements. It sounds like you’re tossing ceiling overboard in favor of safe picks, and I know that’s not the total picture with you. I’d guess you’re making that statement for pitchers much more than position players, but still, in the Rangers system I’m ranking Perez much higher than Tommy Hunter, even though Hunter has already made the majors and seems strong as an ox.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 30, 2008 11:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not a big, blanket statement

It’s a specific, qualified, limited exception to the general rule that a player who produces the same statline at the same level at a younger age is a better prospect.

Think about it. How often are you going to end up with a situation where you have

Very similar statlines
Very similar career histories
Very similar stuff
Very similar projection

but one guy happens to be 21 and the other 19 at the same level? It’s basically going to have to be at A or A+, since 19 y/o at AA are invariably elite or at least extremely projectable. The 21-year-old is going to have to be a juco or recent college draftee, while the 19-year-old is probably going to be a high schooler.

It’s a situation I could see coming up once every few years, at most. And as we’ve already established, it doesn’t really apply to Inoa.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Dec 1, 2008 2:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're obviously making a different argument

than Gdawg1.

I realize that arguing this issue with an A’s fan is like arguing Communism or Capitalism/Democracy with Lenin or Reagan, but while it’s nice to be past the injury nexus, there is obviously a lot to be said for doing a lot with your development time.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 4:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

wow

21 YO > 19 YO

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Dec 1, 2008 8:04 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

not really

The point also isn’t so much that he is 16, its that he has less experience and the experience he has is against worse competition.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Dec 1, 2008 10:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

They’re wrong.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 12:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He has more upside than anyone in the system ...

possibly anyone, period …

But he’s got four years of development/adjustments/injury risks to get through, meaning he also has an incredible risk for attrition … balancing the two is one of the most challenging aspects of rating prospects. Every single other player in the top 10, I would say has a better than 50% chance of being an average or better player within the next two years (though Cardenas may not get to show it that quickly) and most of them have All-Star potential upside …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Nov 30, 2008 2:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know about the others having all star potential

I mean sure any number of kids in the minors could be all stars, literally hundreds of them, but several of those guys in that top ten don’t have apparent all star ability at this point (just like most of the Rangers top ten doesn’t).

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 2:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

didn’t realize we had such an edge. But really good stuff. Rec

In reference to how good the Steelers have been in their history: "No one is even close to them."- Steal Home

by hinduplaya on Nov 29, 2008 9:20 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

It's very close

Most of those are coin flips, and the A’s order is weird. They’re very, very numbers oriented.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 11:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

Even in the order you have, you could make good arguments for Cunningham over Main and Simmons over Perez. I’d probably take Vince Mazzaro over Borbon too.

by LiamP on Nov 30, 2008 12:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and i think cunnigham was the last guy in the deal w/ the dbacks – like the “worst” prospect?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Dec 1, 2008 8:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Greg Smith was generally considered the last guy thrown into the deal

a piece that since the A’s have helped parlay into Matt Holliday.

Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom

by designatedforassignment on Dec 2, 2008 2:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

greg smith – talk about a player who was sold high

damnnnnnnnnnnnn

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Dec 2, 2008 5:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That is a sick username.

If mine wasn’t equally good, I’d envy you ;)

Bring up Matt West '09

by Chase Irwin on Dec 2, 2008 9:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Heh.

"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL

by lonestarJon on Dec 2, 2008 9:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks

im mostly a lurker on AN and Minorleagueball but i am quite proud of the sn

Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom

by designatedforassignment on Dec 3, 2008 2:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the farm's looking good, but does everybody on here like Cahill/Anderson > Holland/Feliz?

and to me, the farm looks a lot better considering we have a GREAT young nucleus in the big leagues already

by slash on Nov 29, 2008 11:00 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Not everybody

BA had Feliz and Holland as the better duo and a few guys have mentioned they like Feliz over Cahill.

by groundingout on Nov 29, 2008 2:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd take Feliz over Cahill.

It’s all about the #1 starting ceiling.

Though I mean no disrespect. I still think Cahill is a really, really good pitching prospect.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2008 7:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

certainly much more likely to reach his ceiling

than feliz, but also w/ a lower ceiling

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 29, 2008 9:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

#1 starting ceiling is insanely overrated.

James Shields didn’t have “#1 ceiling.” Dan Haren didn’t have “#1 ceiling.” Roy Halladay didn’t have “#1 ceiling.” Brandon Webb didn’t have “#1 ceiling.” Derek Lowe didn’t have “#1 ceiling.”

Shit, there are probably more aces who didn’t have “ace ceiling” than the other way around.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 30, 2008 2:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're right

(other than the Halladay part). And Cahill has apparent #1 starter ceiling anyway.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 2:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He doesn't have the velocity of a "true #1"

but he has such incredible movement on his fastball, it’s going to be a ++ pitch, even though he’ll likely only sit at about 90 …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Nov 30, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The point is, when you actually understand "ceiling"

to be “95th percentile performance,” instead of what people usually think of it as (“95th percentile fastball”), virtually every starting pitching prospect in the top 50 overall has #1 ceiling, and a large number of guys outside of it have #1 ceiling as well. It’s the nature of the beast— pitchers have wildly variable outcomes, much more so than hitters.

Just in the A’s system, I can think of 8 players with what I consider #1 starter ceiling (Anderson, Cahill, Gio, Inoa, Leon, Hunter, Ross, Rodriguez) and I might be sleeping on a few others like Gallagher who are a few tweaks away from being there. Even if you assume the average system has half as many, you’re still talking about over 100 players who have #1 ceiling. Of those, maybe, what, 10 will actually realize it? It’s just not much of a factor in evaluating players.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 30, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I certainly wouldn't disagree with you

What Feliz has going for him is one excellent swing and miss pitch, but you don’t see many number one starters without more than that. It’s all about how guys polish out their game. Front rotation starters come in all shapes and sizes.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 2:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yay, Paul Thomas is hanging out here now!

Awesome…

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 3:28 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

If this is serious, give credit to groundingout for linking this at AN

If this is sarcastic, blame him…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 30, 2008 5:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hehehehe

Don’t complain now, tronny tron.

You know you want some PT. We all do.

Otherwise groundingout wouldn’t have cast that net ;)

Bring up Matt West '09

by Chase Irwin on Nov 30, 2008 9:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't Feliz still have substandard off-speed stuff?

meet me at the mawwl... it's goin dowwn...

by oc on Nov 30, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There is a distinction to be made

He’s only been throwing breaking balls for about a year. Scouts look at two aspects as far as pitches, what they look like now and what kind of improvement they project. Yes, Feliz’s change and breaking ball are substandard major league pitches now. But many think that the fact that they aren’t terrible, along with the fact that he’s been throwing the breaking ball for such a short time, and frankly the changeup so little in games, bodes fairly well for the projection of these pitches. He needs time; he’s not a finished product by any means. But the story for Feliz doesn’t end with a yes answer to your question. I would contrast this with Thomas Diamond who is 25 years old, and still has a substandard breaking ball. And I’d also point to Edinson Volquez as a guy who was almost all FB/change until a fairly advanced age and hwo made it even to the majors at one point without any kind of breaking ball, but who did develop his in 2007 at the age of 23, after a fairly short amount of time perfecting it in the minors.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 4:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

according to Hindman he does

no comment here.

In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.

by tricer on Nov 30, 2008 6:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

heh

hindman probably thinks he has * THREE * pplus curves ;)

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Dec 1, 2008 8:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I sure don't

but maybe that’s just my opinion. It did look improved this year (i.e. he didn’t bounce it in half the time), but when I saw it it wasn’t consistent or all that effective.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 6:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You know, that brings to mind

a salient point about these “plus” evals, and not just from Hindman. I’ve been to Frisco and seen quite a few arms that supposedly had plus pitches and very, very rarely does it actually look that way in practice. Discounting the fact that they’re works in progress, I’m astonished by how rarely I actually see one of these plus pitches hit instead of miss.

Maybe I’m expecting too much, and I have noticed more “life” on some of these pitches in pre-game warmups than in the games themselves. The more games I attend at the AA level, the more impressed I am when a pitcher shows up with movement and/or control on more than one pitch.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 30, 2008 11:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe

but you could say the same about almost any prospect his age and experience level.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 30, 2008 4:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the rangers system

is much deeper imo. i see quite a few more low level high upside guys in the rangers farm system. i think the a’s have more safer bets. just a matter of preference imo. in 10 years when we look back i think the rangers will have had the better players

by dustinvandeman on Nov 29, 2008 8:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

+1

as have lower end talent but more liekly to reach ceiling
rangers have more upper level talent but more of a risk

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 29, 2008 9:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

exactly my thoughts just more easily put

in other words. the a’s are more likely to be a competing ball club in the next decade whereas the rangers are more likely to be average or below average but also more likely imo to be a championship contender

by dustinvandeman on Nov 29, 2008 9:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

lol

what?

"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract

by tyd3311 on Nov 29, 2008 10:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

for the people that lack reading comprehesion

rangers = more likely to fall flat on their face or strike gold
a’s= safer bet to be above average

by dustinvandeman on Nov 29, 2008 11:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Safer bet for lower ceiling

means safer bet for the huge suck. I hate the A’s.

Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador

by Parman on Nov 30, 2008 11:04 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly.

"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract

by tyd3311 on Nov 30, 2008 5:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

some input on A's

they had a large amount of 22-25 yr olds at the mlb level this past season….who may have been rushed at times like sweeney, gio, gallagher, buck, cunningham, suzuki, barton, devine, etc who are being counted on for future seasons..whether any are impact types or just decent players we’ll see

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 30, 2008 12:28 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

so did the Rangers

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 30, 2008 12:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

This is another thing that the two organizations have in common. The Rangers saw Chris Davis, Eric Hurley, Brandon Boggs, German Duran, Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden, Warner Madrigal, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Tommy Hunter all get pretty significant time last year, and Davis, Boggs, Duran, Harrison and Saltalamacchia are now “graduates” but all but Davis are pretty unproven.

The only particularly big contrast between the organizations is that the A’s have pitching depth at the MLB/AAA levels, while the Rangers have positional depth.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 1:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

due to that depth at the upper levels for both teams

i wonder if they would match up on any inter division deals

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 30, 2008 1:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're counting on Barton for future seasons?

I feel for you, I really do.

There’s not a thing impressive about him. I never understood how he got so hyped in the first place, but that’s a big ball of suck with which to waste your 1B AB’s.

Bring up Matt West '09

by Chase Irwin on Nov 30, 2008 9:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

who sees kurt suzuki as an impact player? or even potentially being an impact player at catcher?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Dec 1, 2008 8:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i see avg-above avg type catcher

he has lots of intagibles value…a leader type, plays very good defense, decent hitting, etc

honestly i wouldnt be surprised is josh donaldson or an ever healthy landon powell shares ab’s eventually though

by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 1, 2008 10:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

right but thast most def not an impact player

were not talking 90s pudge or today joe mauer impact guy

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Dec 1, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

but thats not what catchers are

think about the impact catchers since the 90s… Pudge, Mauer, Mccaan, Piazza, ill give you but other than that? There rarely are true impact players at the position which is why Wieters’ prospect status is so through the roof. Suzuki will be an above average catcher with both the glove and the bat which is damn valuable.

Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom

by designatedforassignment on Dec 3, 2008 2:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it would make much more sense to pair guys off based on position

Here’s my take:

Anderson/Holland: I’ve discussed this at length here some months ago. A’s.

Feliz/Cahill: Can’t make a call on this one, it’s a virtual coin flip.

Smoak/Carter: Smoak, clearly. Rangers

Ramirez/Doolittle: Doolittle has much better ARL and much better defense if Ramirez doesn’t stick at catcher. A’s.

Teagarden/Donaldson: I don’t like Teagarden’s bat at ALL. Then again, I’m not sold on Donaldson’s bat either. I’ll give this one to Teagarden. Rangers.

Perez/Simmons: Perez dreams of being James Simmons in four years. A’s.

Andrus/Cardenas: Cardenas has a slight offensive advantage, Andrus a significant defensive advantage. Rangers.

Inoa/Main: Inoa. A’s.

Hurley/Gio: Much more K ability from Gio, but he has walked a few more and I hate walks. I’ll call this one a tossup.

Borbon/Brown: Brown has a much higher ceiling but he’s not likely to reach it. Rangers.

Mazzaro/Hunter: Another close one; I’m giving it to Mazzaro because his 2007 wasn’t as bad as it looked. A’s.

Bottom line: this is a pick’em. I can see arguments for either system, especially if there are guys you love outside of the top 10. It’d probably take me 5 hours with a calculator and the BA handbook to figure out which system I’d rather have. Since this is finals week, this’ll have to do.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 30, 2008 2:00 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

That looks fair to me

What is your overall assessment of Mazzaro? I got to see him once this year in Frisco, and he was totally in control with his sinker. but it’s always hard to project those guys based largely on the one pitch. I did like his demeanor.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 2:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I've heard good things about his offspeed stuff's development

In particular he seems to be using a knuckle-curve which, for all I know, he may have picked up from Cahill (they’re very similar pitchers— Mazzaro is kind of the poor man’s Cahill). That may account for his better stats this season. I understand he also throws a slider and change with the chance to be average pitches.

I think he’s got a good shot at being the next Joe Blanton, which is pretty solid value, though not sexy.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 30, 2008 2:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He threw

what looked like a changeup a handful of times and I think a curve once or twice the night I saw him. I thought the changeup in particular wasn’t a bad pitch. But it was pretty obvious that that night he didn’t need anything else, really.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 2:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you didn't really say otherwise

but I feel that Andrus has a huge advantage compared to Cardenas. At 19, both players were getting on base at about a 35% clip, but Andrus was doing it in AA, while Cardenas was doing it in the Sally League. And then you have the defensive advantage, which is huge, in favor of Andrus, plus the fact that Andrus looks like he could steal an extra 30-40 bags a year.

In memory of Ulysses Simpson Grant Stoner. RIP Lil Stoner.

by tricer on Nov 30, 2008 8:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nah

His BA in VWL is .261, OBP is still .354.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 10:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Top 10 for A's looks like it will end up being

1. Trevor Cahill, RHP
2. Brett Anderson, LHP
3. Chris Carter, 3B/1B
4. Aaron Cunningham, CF
5. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
6. Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B
7. Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF
8. James Simmons, RHP
9. Vin Mazzaro, RHP
10. Josh Donaldson, C

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Nov 30, 2008 7:02 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

If we want to compare Top 10 Prospects for both teams, perhaps LSB or AN are not quite the best places to do it.

I think if we seriously wanted to do it, we’d have to go to MinorLeagueBall and do it there, where people are a bit more impartial and won’t tilt one way or the other based on their own team loyalties-because regardless of what we want to do, we will always push slightly towards our own teams’ prospects.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Nov 30, 2008 8:09 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Good point

Albeit a lot of the commentary here is fairly reasoned, and includes looking at downside of team prospects. It seems to me that many fans of both teams are pretty objective.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Nov 30, 2008 8:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Err...

I don’t think MinorLeagueBall as a community would be so…receptive…of another A’s/Rangers prospect discussion.

by LiamP on Nov 30, 2008 8:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

Jeff could put quotation marks around all the dubious wannabe star position notations. Heh …

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Nov 30, 2008 8:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

well I think they'd be much more objective than HH

and this IS the off season, its not like there is much else to talk about.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Nov 30, 2008 9:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Heh, I figure the LL commentary would be a lot like the Asian groundskeepers from the movie Major League.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.

by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 9:26 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I understand, but it's kind of pointless.

Let’s just wait for the BA, BP, Sickels and Law verdicts before we start waving our cocks around.

Plus, don’t you guys have like 50 fanposts worth of “Furcal: Will He or Won’t He And If He Will Will He Be Worth It?” material to discuss this offseason? :)

by LiamP on Nov 30, 2008 9:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That was my exact thinking

I was hoping someone had done it just so I could see all the posts complaining about it.

by groundingout on Nov 30, 2008 10:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The above

got moved pretty far down but it was in response to Liam

by groundingout on Nov 30, 2008 10:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

this turned out to be

a great diary.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Dec 1, 2008 12:01 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Incase there was any doubt

About Holland vs. Cahill, milb.com has Holland as the 46th best prospect, far behind where Cahill is likely to rank.

by groundingout on Dec 1, 2008 9:58 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Hmm

milb.com is obviously not going to rank Holland above Feliz either, so it’s somewhat moot, no? Most publications aren’t going to have these players ordered like the vote here. If we’re going by publications such as milb.com and BA and BP, the comparisons will be Feliz and Cahill and then Holland and Anderson.

And two more things: First, milb.com’s rankings suck. Second, if you’re using this as support for your ranking of Holland/Cahill, how are you going to support Anderson vs Feliz? Feliz will obviously be higher in rankings from BA and Goldstein, and I would presume here, although who knows with the milb.com goofballs.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 1, 2008 10:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

milb.com's rankings

Aren’t very good, or atleast weren’t last year. I wasn’t suggested to use any rankings as a basis here, just noting that there is likely gonna be a large difference in where Holland and Cahill will rank.

by groundingout on Dec 1, 2008 10:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

I suppose around 20 spots?

by Brett Perryman on Dec 1, 2008 10:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Also

as I said, I think that Feliz and Cahill is a much better comparison, and Feliz may well be ahead of Cahill on average on these lists. And Holland could be pretty close to Anderson.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 1, 2008 10:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking

closer to 35, though hard to say with milb.com, BA had him at 13 in their midseason update, interestingly enough 1 spot behind Feliz.

by groundingout on Dec 1, 2008 10:47 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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