LSB Community Prospect Project: #13
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 12:32 PM CST
Email
PrintSorry for the late start on this one. I started to put it up when I got up this morning but we were still under the 200 vote threshold. Then when I went to do it this afternoon the poll wouldn't take. It kept telling me I had to give the poll a title even though I clearly had a freaking title. I finally just had to close the whole thing out and start anew. Stupid goddamn series of tubes. I hate Al Gore so much sometimes...
Anyways...
After 206 votes, Blake "Captain Wonderful" Beavan has won the right to be called the LSB Community #12 prospect!
C1 won the vote with the best 53% of the total votes that he's ever seen.
The list so far:
1. LHP, Derek Holland.
2. RHP, Neftali Feliz
3. 1b, Justin Smoak
4. RHP, Michael Main
5. SS, Elvis Andrus
6. C, Taylor Teagarden
7. C, Maximiliano Ramirez
8. LHP, Martin Perez
9. OF, Julio Borbon
10. RHP, Eric Hurley
11. OF, Engel Beltre
12. RHP, Blake Beavan
Time to move on to the vote for #13.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
NOTE: There has been some speculation as to what the criteria are for this vote. Should guys who have spent time in the bigs be involved in "prospect" discussions? For the sake of this exercise we're taking what the guys have done in the big leagues and using the BA prospect formula of 130 AB's or 50 ip. If a guy is under those limits, he's still a prospect and he goes on the poll. It's that simple.
Resources:
- MJH's prospect previews for the DMN Blog:
- 11 Weeks of FFG (Prelude to Prospects Lists below)
- RH Starters 1-5
- RH Starters 6-10
- RH Starters 11-15
- LH Starters 1-5
- LH Starters 6-10
- Relievers 1-5
- Catchers
Jason Parks and Joey Matschulat's Top 25 list from their excellent Rangers' site, BBTiA.com.
124 comments
|
6 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Kiker here for me.
It’s a tight one over Boscan and NeRa, but I love what Kiker brings to the table and I think we’re really gonna see him breakout next in Frisco.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 12:34 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Also went with Kiker
He still shows a lot of promise. I can also see a breakout type year in Frisco.
by meatbonelefty on Nov 30, 2008 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
Kiker went as Bobby Light for Halloween
He gets my vote.
This is the Texas Rangers, professional destroyers of hope, we're talking about. - BAC
I don't know what that means.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 1:02 PM CST up reply actions
Rob and Big
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-Rv4gztdRw
Did you just get out pop cultured?
This is the Texas Rangers, professional destroyers of hope, we're talking about. - BAC
Oh, it's an MTV thing.
Sorry. I abhor reality shows and never watch MTV just as a general rule.
Anything MTV-related is my pop culture Achilles heel.
The other night I sort of half-listened to two girls in our group talk about for like 30 minutes about how much they loved the Hills thinking they were talking about a local high school called Hillcrest. Finally I was like, “Wait, you two went to Hillcrest?” They looked at me like I was one of those guys who presses his dong up against bis windows and then grins at you.
Then I got to hear all about the Hills, which was actually worse than the look.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 3:06 PM CST up reply actions
you know what you should have done?
A jump throw!
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
Dammit.
Why didn’t I think of that at the time?
Much like the average Derek Jeter jump throw saves 1.75 runs, I’m guessing if I had done an impromptu jump throw there it would’ve helped me get all up in the guts of like 1.75 girls.
You know Whitter, after playing fantasy baseball with you this year I kind of assumed you were one of those guys who was just kind of terribly sucky at everything, but judging by that comment I’m guessing you’d actually make a pretty solid wingman.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
heres a question…who does a better jump throw:
tim tebow or derek jeter?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
That's not so much a question as it is a statement that you are a big time dumb-dumb Johnston who knows nothing at all about jump throws.
Seriously, “Tebow or Jeter”?
Are you kidding me?
First of all Tebow does jump passes, which are gay, while Jeter does jump throws, which ridiculously manly and straight and masculine as hell.
Has Tebow ever won a World Series ring or nailed that hot slut from Friday Night Lights? Has Tebow ever gone 13-to-17 inches deep into Jessica Beil or had sleepovers with Alex Rodriguez? I’ll give you a hint: The answer to all those questions is hell to the no.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 1, 2008 8:13 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You obviously missed something about my fantasy team
It was an artistic commentary on the Texas Rangers. We had some bad scouting information which lead to overvaluing some of our own players. That followed with a few bad free agent signings and a plague of injuries.
Our promising young pitcher who we counted on to anchor the rotation was lost for the season early in the year when he fell down and bent his wookie.
The injuries led to some panic roster moves which caused us to lose some good players on waivers.
At mid season we traded one of our top hitters in order to get some value before he left in free agency. That trade brought back some young talent to build on and we expect to be in the playoffs in 2010.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
ha ha, nice.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
Somehow
that doesn’t seem like much of a stretch.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 1:05 PM CST up reply actions
please tell me there are pics
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 30, 2008 11:04 PM CST up reply actions
ill have to add him
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Fredo
Although I’m not sure I can explain picking him over NeRa.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 30, 2008 12:39 PM CST reply actions
How about this reason: 4
As in Neil Ramirez walked 4 batters more per nine innings more than Wilfredo Boscan last year.
I love NeRa’s big old honking stuff, but wildness in pitching prospects scares the shit out of me.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
maybe
but I haven’t heard anyone describe Boscan’s stuff as “electric” or suggest that he has a ceiling of a 1/2…NeRa gets it for me because his suggested ceiling is higher…
that means ramirez should have been ahead of hurley
;)
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 30, 2008 11:05 PM CST up reply actions
Eh.
Kiker put up a fat 6.24 BB/9 in his first season at Spokane. Now, he went down to 3.83 in Clinton and then to 2.74 in Bakersfield but he’s still relatively wild.
I’ll take Ramirez’s stuff and the possibility of control in the future over what Kiker offers right now.
Kiker v Ramirez
When Kiker pitched at Spokane, he was just beginning his pro career. Ramirez had been in the organization for 10 months. Kiker was already at Clinton with the corresponding NeRa age.
Boscan v NeRa
Sort of the crazy chick versus the sane chick, if both are pretty hot.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 30, 2008 2:28 PM CST up reply actions
NeRa.
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. 45 given up in the 1st quarter. Wow. But still we're better than Washington! Oh and, SUCK IT WESTERN KENTUCKY! 1-10 baby!
Ramirez
he and Boscan are an interesting contrast of stuff and polish, but you have to like a nasty FB/curve combo.
I went with Boscan
Best case, it seems like he could be a Wang or Webb type. I like that.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 30, 2008 1:22 PM CST up reply actions
i like boscan...
But Ramirez really, really intrigues me. His numbers were better and overall his stuff definitely seems electric. He’s always gonna be a guy who Ks alot of batters, An arm like, even when it falters, has value in the pen at least.
I cant wait to see what he does at clinton
Same with me
there is something about NeRa that just peaks my interest. I think he and Main will eventually be the jewels of that draft (no offense to CWun, Borbon, and Hunter)
Peaks your interest?
Sorry. Bothers me.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 2:27 PM CST up reply actions
Wow, it ate the word "Piques". As in "piques my interest".
Damn you internet goblins!!!
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 2:28 PM CST up reply actions
I think that as time goes on and we approach next season
the 2008 picks, Ross, Murphy and Wieland, will have people more and more excited. Murphy walked a few people in A-, but if you combine the reports on his stuff with how well he did in the NWL and MWL, what’s not to like? And Wieland is one of the value picks in the early-mid rounds so far.
The problem is that none of the top 2007 picks have really dropped off
I think all of them are at or above expectations a year into it. Its hard for the 2008 guys to jump any of them, due to both name recognition and performance to date. I think Ross and Murphy would have us all giddy if the Rangers didn’t have all those kids from the year before.
Except that
if you compare the stuff that Murphy was putting out there with, say, Beavan’s, you might have more of a debate than we might expect.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
I agree
I think that unless a guy is an obvious stud like Smoak, then there is a bias towards ranking guys that you know better over guys who are relatively new. Ramirez was drafted only slightly ahead of Ross in their respective drafts, and Ross probably fell a bit for signability reasons. Yet Neil has 4x the votes as Ross right now.
Anyway, I’m not saying that all those guys should be ahead, only that there is a tendency to favor guys who we’re more familiar with, and I don’t know the best way to weight that familiarity
honestly
i sometimes feel like its completely the other way around, the more we see a guy, sometimes the less we like them just because we know their flaws and it seems the less trendy pick
It can be like that, and it’s an incorrect tendency of course. It depends on the player and the evaluator. Both are common biases.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 10:49 PM CST up reply actions
Also
the 2007 first rounders aren’t all that we will rank ahead of guys like Murphy.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 1:52 PM CST up reply actions
Wieland is a really interesting prospect
He has already added velocity to his FB and the scuttlebut during FI was that they regarded him as a “power” pitcher who is likely to add more velo. Couple that increasing velo with his control and presence and he could be more than just a HS guy with now stuff who moves quickly through the ranks to become a back rotation guy. Great Pick.
The projection
that Wieland has shown is what I think Boscan might lack. Boscan is super skinny and it may be that he just can’t get much bigger and stronger, at 6-2 160. I think what you see now with Boscan is likely what you end up with if he makes it to the bigs, AA to Plus secondary stuff and an average to above average fastball.
I have a feeling
that Wieland is a top 7 prospect by this time next year in our system.
by Michael Cave on Nov 30, 2008 5:09 PM CST up reply actions
+1
" He throws it where he wants it, his breaking ball kept getting better and better and of course God gave him that special arm. He's great." ~ Neftali Feliz on Derek Holland.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 30, 2008 9:25 PM CST up reply actions
Kiker for me
He just slightly edges Boscan out. If Kiker wins this, I’m going Boscan then Vallejo after him and then probably Neil Ramirez. Ramirez has some great stuff, but there is something extremely wrong about having a 1.79 K/BB ratio when you are striking out 10.64 guys per nine innings. He’s got to get some control next year.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I take it you think he's a future closer?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 2:37 PM CST up reply actions
wow
A guy with one plus pitch and a below average slider…? Sounds like a 7th inning guy to me
Thankfully
I don’t even know who maddog is supposed to be.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 2:40 PM CST up reply actions
a guy 2 look to add a little down the line
clark murphy. put up good numbers this past year.
Boscan's numbers and stuff
The Rangers have a lot of great prospects but I find it hard to believe that Boscan is not in the Top 10. His fastball is low 90’s with outstanding movement and he commands it extremely well. To my untrained eye, Boscan’s curveball is a notch below NeRa’s but on par with Murphy’s and a notch above Perez’. And he used his change-up to make guys who were 2-4 years older than him look silly in the NWL. In my opinion, Boscan’s combination of stuff and command put him on par with almost anyone else in the organization.
Then you look at his 2008 numbers and you realize that he has no statistical weaknesses. He struck out more than 9 batters per inning, walked fewer than 1.5 per 9 (that’s a K:BB of greater than 6), and had a GO:AO of 1.5. His ERA (3.12) and WHIP (1.11) were predictably outstanding.
In 2008, Boscan was the only young-for-his-league pitcher in professional baseball who posted greater than a K per inning, fewer than 1.5 BB/9IP, and fewer than 0.5 HR/9IP while also having an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP of less than 1.20, and a GO:FO of at least 1.5. Hard to believe? Check the 2008 numbers for the other highly-regarded, young-for-their-league pitchers:
Pitcher (age/league) – K/9 – BB/9 – HR/9 – ERA – WHIP – GO:AO
Boscan (18/A-) – 9.1 K/9 – 1.4 BB/9 – 0.4 HR/9 – 3.12 ERA – 1.11 WHIP – 1.5 GO:AO
Bumgarner (18/A) – 10.4 K/9 – 1.3 BB/9 – 0.2 HR/9 – 1.46 ERA – 0.93 WHIP – 0.9 GO:AO
Cahill (20/A+) – 10.6 K/9 – 3.2 BB/9 - 0.3 HR/9 – 2.78 ERA – 0.95 WHIP – 2.2 GO:AO
Anderson (20/A+) – 9.7 K/9 – 2.2 BB/9 - 0.6 HR/9 – 4.14 ERA - 1.16 WHIP – 2.4 GO:AO
Bowden (21/AA) – 8.7 K/9 – 2.1 BB/9 – 0.4 HR/9 – 2.33 ERA – 0.92 WHIP – 0.8 GO:AO
Poreda (21/AA) – 7.4 K/9 – 2.3 BB/9 – 0.5 HR/9 – 2.98 ERA – 1.17 WHIP – 1.3 GO:AO
Kershaw (20/AA) – 8.7 K/9 – 2.8 BB/9 – 0 HR/9 – 1.91 ERA – 0.95 WHIP – 1.0 GO:AO
Chacin (20/A+) – 8.4 K/9 – 1.6 BB/9 – 0.4 HR/9 – 2.31 ERA – 1.10 WHIP – 2.8 GO:AO
Hanson (21/AA) – 10.5 K/9 – 3.8 BB/9 - 0.8 HR/9 – 3.03 ERA – 1.13 WHIP – 0.9 GO:AO
Niese (21/AA) 8.1 K/9 – 3.2 BB/9 0.4 HR/9 – 3.04 ERA – 1.30 WHIP – 1.5 GO:AO
Parker (19/A) – 9.0 K/9 – 2.5 BB/9 - 0.6 HR/9 – 3.44 ERA – 1.24 WHIP – 1.0 GO:AO
Pineda (19/A) – 8.3 K/9 - 2.3 BB/9 - 0.5 HR/9 – 1.95 ERA – 1.04 WHIP – 1.3 GO:AO
When reviewing Boscan’s numbers and comparing him to other prospects, I am reminded of a statement that was made often during the 90’s – “There are better scorers, better rebounders, and better passers in the NBA, but nobody fills a stat-sheet like Scotty Pippen.” The same can be said for Boscan. He’s not the strongest in any single category, but he is virtually alone in his ability to excell in every statitic that is kept for pitchers.
by spurdynasty on Nov 30, 2008 3:08 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Agree
I’ve been saying this since I first voted for him six places ago. He has no apparent weaknesses.
you
just made me a believer my friend
by dustinvandeman on Nov 30, 2008 3:18 PM CST up reply actions
But then there are guys like this.
You have to be careful when a kid with polish beyond his year but questionable top end stuff dominates in the low levels. Scouting reports can be just as/more important in projecting kids this young.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
hmmm
that actually doesnt look like that bad of a pitcher to me given his age. i mean his is still just 23 and posts a mid 4 era in the last 2 seasons. looks like a guy who still has the potential to be a pretty decent player
by dustinvandeman on Nov 30, 2008 3:29 PM CST up reply actions
No, Petit's not all that bad.
I just brought him up because a while back there was significant debate on the interwebs about whether or not Petit was one of the top pitching prospect in the majors. He was the focus of a big old discussion of scouting reports and projection versus stats and results at the low levels.
He still has a chance to be pretty okay.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 3:38 PM CST up reply actions
he was also a mets prospect
and was hyped a lot because of that
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 30, 2008 11:14 PM CST up reply actions
I disagree as it applies to Boscan
but agree 100% that scouting reports are more important than stats when it comes to projecting the young kids. Stat based analysis is a part of the puzzle, but the minor leagues are a classroom and stats, especially with pitchers, can be very misleading.
everything that I have read (save for MJH's breathless profile)
suggests he has one plus pitch, his change-up. Nothing that I have read has compared his curve to the top curves in the system, which grades out as average to above average with the potential to be plus. Finally his fastball is average to above average, 88-92. It seems to me, as I stated above, that he is a pitchability guy that has now stuff in a not too projectable frame, so what you have now is what you will likely have later if he makes it to the bigs. So rating a guy with a ceiling say of a mid-rotation guy as a top 10 pick is too high in my estimation. Having said that he is 19 on my list, and anyone in the top 25 in this system is a pretty exciting prospect IMO.
Check out Boscan for yourself
http://www2.fiberpipe.net/hawks/2007/vod.asp?spokane082907.wsx
You can then watch Perez and Ramirez on the following two games.
sorry i should have said
everything that I have read _and_watched. And i should add, an anecdote does not a rule make.
Correct link to Boscan's game against Boise
http://www2.fiberpipe.net/hawks/2007/vod2.asp?spokane082908.wsx
Sorry, I had the wrong link in the post above.
Goyogringo – What do you mean by “an anecdote does not a rule make”?
There is no necessary
correspondence between the results of 3 discrete starts and the ceilings that they each possess.
So to me the basic issue is ceiling:
Do you believe that Boscan is a high-ceiling guy who is capable of being a top rotation starter in the bigs? I think he seems like a mid rotation guy as I don’t think he has much projection left.
Boscan has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation guy
Surprisingly few major league aces throw mid-90’s fastballs. Most great pitchers succeed with great movement and command. Boscan has that in spades. He misses bats, he induces ground balls, he doesn’t give up walk or homeruns – what’s not to like?
velo
You’re right about surprisingly few aces throwing mid-90’s stuff. I think people place far too much emphasis on pure velocity as opposed to adequate velo combined with good movement. I’m anxious to see how Boscan does at higher levels, but so far there is just nothing not to like by stat or sight.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
He misses bats?
For a kid his age, he certainly does fine, but a .251 BA against isn’t a guy who is top shelf at missing bats. I like Boscan, I just think that you guys might be putting too much stock into short season stats for an advanced pitcher, especially for his age. There is a lot to be said for a guy who has enough together that he seems very likely to make the majors. But Boscan has a fair amount to add, I think, before he is viewed as someone who has a good shot at being an impact major league starter, like some think that Main and Perez appear to be. I’m not here to say that he won’t add those elements, but the sense I get is that you guys think it’s all there now, the tools are all present, and I don’t think that’s right.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 4:20 PM CST up reply actions
He's a groundball pitcher
So the BA against is going to be higher than normal, isn’t it? A .250 BA isn’t really that bad either since he only gives up 1.5 walks/9 IP.
No it's not
But if you’re going to factor in the fact that he’s a GB pitcher, I don’t think a big factor in ranking him so high is that he misses some bats.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 4:45 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think I'm tracking you, Z
What do you mean by
you guys might be putting too much stock into short season stats for an advanced pitcher, especially for his age.?
My posts should not be taken to mean that I think that Boscan is ready for the major leagues. He clearly has a lot of filling out and pitch development left before he should even sniff a MLB mound. With that said, the guy’s 2008 performance was extremely impressive even without factoring in the fact that he was one of the youngest players in his league. Assuming he continues to develop, Boscan will hit AA at the age of 20 or 21 where he will be among the 5-10 youngest pitchers in the Texas League.
Regarding the BAA stat, obviously you understand that goes both ways. Boscan’s BAA was .251 because his BABIP was over .330. Had Boscan’s BABIP been closer to .300, then his WHIP would have likely been below 1.00 and his ERA would have likely been below 3.00. And then his numbers would be even more impressive.
There are obviously more than two voices in the thread
I shouldn’t generalize, since there are nuances in the different support for Boscan.
As far as this, you’re speaking in statistical terms here. The comment you’re referencing comes from more of the scouting side, since, from reports, I think that Boscan’s stuff needs quite a bit of improvement to reach the level you’re projecting. As I said, I’m not looking to convince anyone that he can’t do it.
I think the comment that I made that involves the statistical side was on his missing bats. And good BABIP or bad BABIP, I’d maintain that a guy who gives up around a hit an inning at a really low level needs to improve his game just like any other prospect to maintain that level of quality as he moves up. Now, he’s really young, as you said, and for goodness sakes he didn’t even have the advantage of going through the AZL, but jumped straight from DSL to NWL, which shouldn’t be underestimated.
But to combine the two aspects again, where I’m coming from is that that same thing can be said of Martin Perez, who had hitters in the league hit .274 against him. But for me to be as optimistic about Boscan as I am about Perez, I need to think that the stuff will play up to maintain on or improve that. With Perez, every indication is that it will. With Boscan, most accounts are that it’s not there yet, at least to be a high end guy.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 4:55 PM CST up reply actions
Help me understand how Boscan's stuff is lacking
I’ve only seen video of his two games against Boise, but almost everything that Boscan threw had pace, movement, and placement. In my opinion, his pitching was more impressive than any of the other Spokane pitchers (including Perez, Ramirez, and Murphy). For me, Boscan’s stuff matches his stats which means that he is an exciting prospect.
I am not privy to scouts nor do I hava scout’s eye, so I would appreciate understanding what it is that Boscan could/should have done to be more highly regarded.
Fun analysis
but isn’t it possible that your method is biased towards Boscon? Every other player on that list is in a full season league, playing against guys who’ve all passed one or two filters in professional baseball. Boscan did well, but he did well against a bunch of players that will likely never see a major league stadium unless they buy a ticket like you and me.
In addition, you’re emphasizing other guys’ flaws while failing to highlight the areas where they are far better than Boscan. This is a selective appraoch that helps prove a point (that he is the Scotty Pippen of Low-A), but is somewhat manipulative of the numbers. For example, he doesn’t walk anyone, so his WHIP tells you about one guy an inning is getting a hit. If one Low-A hitter an inning can get a hit, what happens when he faces tougher competition? Cahill is walking 3 guys a game yet has a 0.95 WHIP in an offensive league – that means he’s freakin’ hard to hit.
I’m not going far out onto a limb by saying that I’d far rather have most any of those guys on that list than Boscan. Those other guys, while they aren’t perfect, have aspects of their games that excel and have the potential to be great. Some of those aspects show up in numbers, others only in scouting reports. But only great minor leaguers get to be major leaguers. Boscan has shown that he doesn’t have many major flaws, but he has to show that he can be great before he should be considered among the best prospects in baseball.
Comparing pitchers to Boscan
My original post was not intended to suggest that Boscan is a better prospect than the other pitchers on the list. Instead, highly ranked prospects are the only ones with the same combination of young-for-their-league and statistics that Boscan has.
My original premise was not to show that Boscan is a great prospect nor was it to suggest that Boscan is the Scotty Pippen of the NWL. Instead, the comment resulted from my attempt a couple of months ago to find a pitcher with statiistics that are comparable to Boscan. I could find pitchers with similar WHIPs and k-rates but their walks would invariably be higher. Almost all pitchers with similar k- and walk-rates had lower groundball rates and higher home-run rates. Pitchers with good groundball rates almost always had lower k-rates. The conclusion that I drew from this exercise was that Boscan’s statistical profile was unique in its balance.
The method that I used to select pitchers for the original comment involved reviewing all pitchers iin the minors who pitched the majority of their innings in a league that was two steps above what their age would suggest. That meant A- pitchers who were 18 or less, A pitchers who were 19 or less, A+ pitchers who were 20 or less, AA pitchers who were 21 or less, and AAA pitchers who were 23 or less. I then picked pitchers who were as good or better than Boscan in multiple categories. It was not my intent to select highly rated pitchers, it simply worked out that way. In addition, it was not my intent to focus on pitchers in full season leagues. There were simply no 17 or 18 year-olds in A- whose numbers compared to Boscan’s. I considered using Stolmy Pimental (18 yo A- prospect for Boston) but his K/9IP was less than 9, his BB/9IP was over 2, and his HR/9 was 1.0.
I continue to be confused by the prevailing notion that Boscan’s stuff relegates hiim to being a mid- or back-of-the-rotation guy. The scouting reports that I’ve seen suggest that he has outstanding control of 3 pitches with plus potential. Isn’t that the definition of a compelling pitching prospect?
Boscan....
You know who he reminds me of? I know you said that you were having trouble comparing him to any prospect but he really proflies like a Kevin Tapani type to me. Probably will give up a hit an inning, but will always have a solid K-walk rate while not necessarily striking out a lot or people. Just a thought.
by Michael Cave on Nov 30, 2008 9:05 PM CST up reply actions
Well, you sold me now on Boscan
He could be our Pippen to our Holland/Feliz/Main/Perez’s Jordan….oh, i like that
In Smoak We Trust
Boscan
then Ramirez I think. Kiker and Poveda are coming up for me real soon but I’m having to think a lot harder now.
Out of all those guys up there Whittleman might be the last one I vote for. A year ago I was skeptical but hopeful for him. He removed the wrong descriptor over the last 12 months.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Whittleman.
Yah, I just needed some more position players to throw on there cause it was getting a little pathetic. It was like 4 position players and then 17 pitchers. Telis and Whittleman came on just for the hell of it. Clark Murphy probably next unless someone wants to make a case for another position player who needs to be on first. .
Although I will say this about Whittleman: The guy has got great big thick veiny juicy plate discipline skills. The contact and the power aren’t there, and neither is the defense… but I’m a sucker for plate discipline. A 15+% BB rate means you get at least one more year of watching by Mr. Thedir K. Atron. I have very little hope but I haven’t completely given up yet. He’s prolly in the 40’s for me.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 4:37 PM CST up reply actions
Along with Clark Murphy...
…Cristian Santana probably should be included.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 30, 2008 5:46 PM CST up reply actions
That is pretty high for him IMO
I still have bianucci ranked higher.
Manny Pina?
Santana really took a tumble this year. I might vote for Pina before I voted for Santana, myself.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Frisco?
Okay who else is going to be going out there (if in the metroplex) a lot this next season? I think it would be really interesting to compare scouting reports with the sabermetric numbers. For some reason, I also find that very enjoyable.
There are probably 10-15 of us here (including Jamey, et al) who go to Frisco games fairly regularly. If you didn’t read the fan posts much during the 08 season, you’ll see next year that there are a lot of personal observations posted.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 30, 2008 5:25 PM CST up reply actions
Yes there is always great
info coming from the LSB’ers at the games, some of which gets picked up by the local writers who are forum regulars….
Dirk will be the latest contributor with his Hickory reports. I bet he is salivating at the chance to take a first hand look at that ridiculous rotation!
I just checked and, yes, he is.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Nov 30, 2008 9:22 PM CST up reply actions
i am hoping to see some of the rangers teams here around DC
but should probably ck if they even play in any of the leagues as the teams around here lol
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 30, 2008 11:16 PM CST up reply actions
Its usually on game days
That Adam will post a Game Day Thread for the Rangers, and then someone else will post a minor league thread which someone will give updates or analysis from the games in the minors. Lots of Frisco updates usually come in these
In Smoak We Trust
Finally looks like Boscan is going to win
Which leaves me to choose between Kiker and NeRam for #14.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
DANG!
I love our top 15! Kasey Kiker at #15? That’s insane. What a system!!!
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
man
i love the fact that we took all these pitchers early on in the draft, we got 7 first round or compensatory pick pitchers in our system… at least i think thats the right number…
I have 8.
Diamond, Hurley, Kiker, Beavan, Main, Hunter, NeRa, and last and certainly the very least, Beau Jones.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
your right
i thought jones was a 2nd round pick…
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
