Bill James LUVS him some CD
by Rodney on Nov 4, 2008 5:23 PM CST
74 comments
Fantasy leaguers, be advised: Bill James is projecting a breakout season for Texas Rangers first baseman Chris Davis, who hit 17 home runs in 80 big-league games in 2008 as a rookie. How big a breakout? James predicts 40 home runs, 118 RBIs and a .302 average from Davis.
Also:
Davis’s slugging percentage of .549 was second highest on the Rangers to Bradley’s .563 and ahead of Josh Hamilton’s .530. He gave a vivid display of his power when he joined Hamilton as Texas sluggers who have hit a ball into the second deck in Seattle’s Safeco Field.
Still think Davis should be on the block?
Not me!
And as for the All Bag-O-Suck Defensive Team:
Defense is difficult to quantify, but the plus-minus system devised by James colleague John Dewan, owner of Baseball Info Solutions, is a respected metric. According to Dewan, baseball’s worst-fielding players at each position over the last three seasons are as follows:
1B – Mike Jacobs; 2B – Jeff Kent; 3B – Edwin Encarnacion; SS – Derek Jeter; LF – Pat Burrell; CF – Nate McLouth; RF – Jermaine Dye; P – Daniel Cabrera.
Finally, Jeter gets his due merits...
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Davis
I like the guy, but I think that may be a little bit optimistic. I’d look for something more along the lines of .275/335./.550 which is plenty good.
by Black Francis on Nov 4, 2008 5:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
hmm
i wonder how many runs that a pitcher costs his team defensively
basically, i wonder if theres really much of a difference between having daniel cabrera on the mound or having kenny rogers on the mound….
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"That wasn’t rain, that was a band of angels pissing on your awful city. Shut the hell up and play." - robert_d_wilfong
by knockoutking on Nov 4, 2008 5:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Bill James is a little late to the party
We all have known about the beast known as Chris Davis for awhile now.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 4, 2008 5:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
heh
how awesome would it have been if bill james called him a beasticon lol
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"That wasn’t rain, that was a band of angels pissing on your awful city. Shut the hell up and play." - robert_d_wilfong
by knockoutking on Nov 4, 2008 5:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
priceless
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Nov 4, 2008 6:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe in his book?
heh
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"That wasn’t rain, that was a band of angels pissing on your awful city. Shut the hell up and play." - robert_d_wilfong
by knockoutking on Nov 4, 2008 6:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My motherfucker Bill James is so cool,
when he goes to bed, sheep count him…
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Nov 4, 2008 7:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He was pretty dead-on
in his breakout projection for Hamilton this past season if I remember. This is exciting, but not surprising, news.
"We live, we die, and the wheels on the bus go round and round." - Tony Romo
by kentbenfer on Nov 4, 2008 9:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Burrell better than Carlos Lee?
I dunno.. maybe Carlos Lee is in his own category. And how do you rate Manny? The guy can actually play some LF, but only when he wants to..
by mattrpav on Nov 4, 2008 5:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
You rate him on how he does.
If he costs a lot of runs because he doesn’t feel like playing, that makes no difference.
by philkid3 on Nov 4, 2008 6:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Davis is an absolute uber beast.
40 hrs next year is what I’ve predicted as well.
He’s Juan Gonzalez part two.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 4, 2008 5:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I hope you're right
I expect him to be very productive as I said before, but you have to think as more and more pitchers see him they’ll learn how to get him out. If I recall he did swing and miss at a lot of breaking stuff down and away. I guess that’s like Gonzo, too.
by Black Francis on Nov 4, 2008 5:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the batting average might suffer a bit from what James predicts.
Not many young guys can hit .300+ in their first full season. Your .275 prediction isn’t bad, imo.
But the power is just crazy.
We’ve got an absolute stud in Davis.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 4, 2008 5:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Chris Davis stepping into the batter’s box = BT stepping into the bedroom…
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Nov 4, 2008 7:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You mean cause he's about to take some unsuspecting young man to school, right?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 4, 2008 7:42 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs
Well played
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Nov 4, 2008 7:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Dirkatron
with the wicked burn!
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Nov 4, 2008 8:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dustin
you have to consider that he’ll also likely be moving up from the cavernous cellars of 9th place in the lineup.
Davis needs to hit 4th or 5th next year. He should see more pitches to hit from that spot, even if they aren’t all fastballs.
It’s going to suck to have to pitch to this team next year.
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 4, 2008 8:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
But he’s a young guy who came up fast. I like to be conservative in that situation. And if you look at the numbers I came up with for him up top, they’re some pretty damn good numbers. I just think 40 homers is tough to call. Can he? Absolutely. I’m just not sure about next season.
by Black Francis on Nov 4, 2008 8:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
I’d honestly be surprised if he didn’t hit 40 home runs next year.
I’m glad we’re having this talk.
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 4, 2008 8:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well we'll see
I hope he does. I think he’ll be in the mid thirties so it’s not like we’re miles apart. He’s gonna be a hell of a hitter, though. Next year and going forward.
by Black Francis on Nov 4, 2008 8:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
-being a whiny little bitch
-the ’roids
-being hurt all the time
(knock on wood)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"That wasn’t rain, that was a band of angels pissing on your awful city. Shut the hell up and play." - robert_d_wilfong
by knockoutking on Nov 4, 2008 5:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
Yah, I mean at the plate.
Obviously he has a lot of knocking up of Puerto Rican beauty queens to do if he wants to truly emulate JuanGone.
Although I can’t say I’d be upset if CD statted rocking the mini-mullet/thick mustache combo like Juan used to. That shit was tight.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 4, 2008 5:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
heh
+1 on the stache + mullet
and doesnt griffey jr look young as hell lol
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"That wasn’t rain, that was a band of angels pissing on your awful city. Shut the hell up and play." - robert_d_wilfong
by knockoutking on Nov 4, 2008 6:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be willing to bet CD could be better outfielder than Juan Gone.
by philkid3 on Nov 4, 2008 6:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If he tried, he'd be better.
Juan Gone was pretty awful.
by philkid3 on Nov 4, 2008 7:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Juando Part 2
Is ok by me although a little bit less of a soap opera life would be nice
by BEW on Nov 4, 2008 5:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Bill James
was also real high on Hamilton before this season, and though Hamilton didn’t quite OPS as high as he predicted he wasn’t that far off. I highly highly doubt Davis reaches any of those numbers but if he gets reasonably close to them I’d gladly take it. Take bf’s line from above to go with say 30+ hrs and 90+ rbis…sign me up.
by groundingout on Nov 4, 2008 5:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I can't think of a single good reason not to have him on the trade block.
That’s different than moving him just to move him.
by philkid3 on Nov 4, 2008 6:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Meh. CD, that's an easy projection.
What can Bill James tell us about Nelson Cruz or Brandon McCarthy?
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Nov 4, 2008 6:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Nelson Cruz
I can’t think of a harder player to project for next year. He could anything on the spectrum.
I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.
by tricer on Nov 4, 2008 6:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Same goes for McCarthy.
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 4, 2008 8:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
if someone said he would be subpar, I wouldn’t argue too much.
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
by Agreen07 on Nov 5, 2008 1:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
well you also probably gave up on him prematurely.
This guy was elite — you can’t deny his talent.
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 5, 2008 8:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I also can't deny
what I have seen from him the last 2 years. My expectations from him is no significant positive contribution.
I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.
by tricer on Nov 5, 2008 10:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
what a shock
coming from the guy who just wants to flat out release McCarthy.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Nov 5, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tricer : B-Mac :: JBImaknee : Salty
And of course Tricer : Everything.
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 5, 2008 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I sent in a question for the Rangers Pod asking
if they could think of anyone who could give a projection on Cruz. I don’t think that question was answered, although Jamey and AJM did say Cruz might be penciled in as the RF starter.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Nov 4, 2008 8:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll post his PECOTAs when the come out.
Just for you.
by philkid3 on Nov 4, 2008 9:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
.280/.340/.500
450 at bats, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 15 SB, above average defense…in other words, extremely valuable as part of a rotation between himself, Hamilton, Murphy, Byrd and (hopefully) Bradley
"Calmer than you are... "
by Walter Sobchak on Nov 5, 2008 2:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
.265/.315/.500
I think Cruz’s average and OBP are going to continue to suck balls. I sort of hate Cruz, if you guys couldn’t tell by me taking every opportunity to say how I could care less if he were DFA’d or waived or R5 picked or whatever. Bleah.
by FuturePants on Nov 5, 2008 9:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
History and logic say he will not be very good over 162 games and then he turns around and has the AAA year he had plus he was dominant for the last 5 weeks of 2008.
I have no idea what to expect.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Nov 4, 2008 11:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
James' predictions...
are about right, except I would say close to a .280 average.
The 40 HR’s I believe CD will hit as well.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 4, 2008 6:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
OT: Hambone chat
couple of interesting things in here for the diehards. Very proud of the fact he played 156 of 162, and the toughest pitcher for him was Greg Maddux.
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=23468
I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.
by tricer on Nov 4, 2008 6:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you Rodney
Let him hit his 40 dingers first and then trade him.. by then Smoak on the water will be a baby step from the Bigs, Big Daddy will have signed Ben Sheets and hopefully Rich Harden the next year, Feliz and Holland will be in the wings and …well … the dynasty begins!
Steal Home R.I.P. 9/10/08
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 4, 2008 7:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ben Sheets and Rich Harden.
Are you a gamblin’ man?
by LiamP on Nov 4, 2008 8:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no a pipe dreaming man...
Big Daddy won’t spend that kinda money.
with performance based incentives of course!
Steal Home R.I.P. 9/10/08
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 4, 2008 8:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i would fucking LOVE to sign harden
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"That wasn’t rain, that was a band of angels pissing on your awful city. Shut the hell up and play." - robert_d_wilfong
by knockoutking on Nov 4, 2008 8:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Fucking / love
are they mutually exclusive?
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 4, 2008 8:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm?
Is there someone I should meet?
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 5, 2008 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
+ 1
by then Millwon’t will on his way out the door …. so that’ll free up 11 million wasted dollars…
It doesn’t have to be Harden…just someone like him. But hell yeh if he stays healthy next year Big Daddy should open up the vault. With a Hamilton long term extension on the horizon that’s doubtful at best.
Steal Home R.I.P. 9/10/08
by LAMuscleFag on Nov 4, 2008 8:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But how much corn's he going to eat?
James ain’t projecting that.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 4, 2008 9:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I thought he ate chicken fried steak.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Nov 4, 2008 10:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
country fried steak
I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.
by tricer on Nov 5, 2008 5:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
According to Peavy's Agent he has alreadyt urned down
a trade to a small ballpark AL club…
Anybody want to take a guess?? I am guessing JD tried to throw his hat in the ring, just in case they would bite.
by laxtonto on Nov 4, 2008 10:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
why boston?
they have no real need for him….
Would be a sweet pitching staff though… Unless they are just trying to keep him out of NYY
by laxtonto on Nov 4, 2008 10:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They've been rumored to be in on him and they have attractive pieces that San Diego would want.
In addition, Towers indicated he wouldn’t approve a deal to Boston, so I’d guess Boston.
Why? So they put together an ungodly pitching staff I guess. I’m assuming they’d give up a package involving Buchholz, Lars Anderson and someone else that’s good.
by LiamP on Nov 4, 2008 10:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i saw something saying that the padres would ask for buchholtz and lowrie and i was like wtf? thats all it would take?
by knockoutking on Nov 5, 2008 8:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No way
CD should be on the block. He should only be traded if we can get a stud SP in return…
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
by Agreen07 on Nov 5, 2008 1:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
First you say no way he should be on the block.
Then you detail a trade you would accept.
by philkid3 on Nov 5, 2008 2:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
True
I guess I worded it wrong. Every Ranger should be on the block because everyone is tradeable for the right price. My point is that I wouldn’t want to trade CD unless we got a hefty return.
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
by Agreen07 on Nov 9, 2008 3:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
From Newberg's Email:
Bill James projects Chris Davis (age 22, making $400,000) to hit .302 with 40 home runs and 118 RBI in 2009.
James projects Manny Ramirez (age 36, seeking close to $20 million) to hit .301 with 34 home runs and 113 RBI in 2009.
James projects Teixeira (age 28, seeking $20 million) to hit .299 with 36 home runs and 126 RBI in 2009.
Thought that put things in perspective nicely.
by slimshadty12 on Nov 5, 2008 12:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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