Sickels on AZL Rangers

by rooster on Nov 6, 2008 4:39 PM CST

FYI

Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers: He looked great too. Very mobile for his size, good swing with a slight but not extreme uppercut, excellent plate discipline. Teixeira-like outcome is quite possible.

Julio Borbon, OF, Texas Rangers: Showing much improved plate discipline and surprising power so far in Arizona. His athleticism and speed are obvious, and he has enough pop in his bat to avoid Gathrightdom. I'm not sure I totally buy into the improved plate discipline yet. I want to see how that holds up against more consistent pitching than he is seeing here.

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Kind of unsure about Julio Borbon...

I’m wondering about what John Sickels means when he writes about Julio Borbon’s “improved plate discipline.” While it’s been noted that Borbon’s walk rate while playing with Rangers’ Minor League Affiliates (5.05% of plate appearances) is way too low, especially for a potential lead-off hitter, his Arizona Fall League numbers haven’t necessarily assuaged concerns about him at the plate.

While Borbon’s current line in the AFL (.299/.413/.433) shows an impressive on-base percentage, and the difference, or “Spread,” between his OBP and his batting average looks excellent, it might be coming at a cost. You see, while Borbon has 13 walks in 80 AFL plate appearances, he has also struck out 16 times. So while in the AFL his walk rate has skyrocketed to 16.25% of plate appearances, he’s also striking out in 23.88% of his at bats and 20% of his plate appearances. That represents a pretty big increase in his strikeout rate. While playing for Rangers’ Minor League Affiliates, Borbon has struck out 66 times in 583 at bats/634 plate appearances. That’s a strike out in 11.32% of his at bats and 10.41% of his plate appearances.

I bring this up after The Hardball Times put out the article “Introducing Plate Discipline Stats,” which Joey ManIsMyNameLong borrowed in his “Plate Discipline and the 2008 Texas Rangers.” If what we’re seeing from Borbon in the AFL is a trend that’s going to continue, I have to wonder if his seemingly improved plate discipline is actually him just taking more pitches and being unable to discriminate between those that are in and out of the stike zone.

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by YourNameHere on Nov 6, 2008 9:48 PM CST reply actions

Your last sentence

If Borbon is on a mission to improve the walking part of his game, it seems natural to me that both walks and strikeouts would both increase as he takes more pitches and tries to become more selective. You’d hope that over time he’d keep most of the walks and not the K’s as he gets better at judging which pitches to lay off of.

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by t ball on Nov 6, 2008 10:23 PM CST up reply actions

That's what I'm hoping for...

I’m hoping that Julio Borbon is able to get his walk rate above what he had during the regular season, while not having his strikeout rate increase significantly. The thing is that Borbon’s strikeout rate has nearly doubled, and it’s not really being mentioned. What I guess we’ll find out is whether or not this is a trade-off.

To Borbon’s credit, which I think he deserves quite a bit because I actually do think he’s a pretty good prospect, his Arizona Fall League 13:16 BB/K ratio is very good. It might in fact be that there’s more gained by the increased walk ratio that there is lost from the increased strikeout ratio, and therefore what he’s doing in the Arizona Fall League, the small sample size that it is (a Major League regular gets about 80 plate appearances in three weeks), is actually an improvement.

I should also add that striking out on 20% of your plate appearances isn’t all that awful; Matt Kemp’s rate in that regard in 2008 was 23.29; B.J. Upton’s was 20.94.

A lot of determining whether or not the increase in Borbon’s strikeout rate is offset by his increased walk rate is in determining how much worse a strikeout is than any other out. Again, I just hope people evaluating his progess reconcile, or at least account for, this coincidence.

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by YourNameHere on Nov 7, 2008 12:06 AM CST up reply actions

honestly

with or without the increased walk rate, borbon still hit .330 and had a good .380 opb at AA in his first full pro season… He’s a good prospect even w/o the increased walk rate. I know the statheads in us always frown at the players that dont walk alot nor hits for alot of power, but im fine with a guy who hits like a howie kendrick, he’s my second least favorite guy to see at the plate for the Angels. If he continues to hit .300 plus in the bigs, his low walk rate will only hinder him from become a great leadoff hitter instead of just a good one

by blalock84 on Nov 7, 2008 2:55 AM CST up reply actions

Lets keep in mind

players in the AFL are their to work on specific portions of their game. In Borbon’s case, it is walks.

Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.

by RangerMad on Nov 7, 2008 9:03 AM CST up reply actions

And before we get too excited

we need to see how that works translates to full season baseball next spring.

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by t ball on Nov 7, 2008 9:48 AM CST up reply actions

true

But just the sight of him doing it means he is capable.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 7, 2008 10:20 AM CST up reply actions

Or that

he is having luck with pitchers who are also working on things in their game.

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by t ball on Nov 7, 2008 10:27 AM CST up reply actions

Or maybe it means that Brian Thomas puts the Voodoo doll away during the Winter.

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Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.

by thedirkatron on Nov 7, 2008 11:05 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Winner.

"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst

by inactive lsb user on Nov 7, 2008 11:56 AM CST up reply actions