Dave Cameron lays the smack down
In 2005, Young was a pretty terrific player, even with the poor defense. He hit .331/.385/.513 in 732 plate appearances, combining quantity with quality to post a 2.50 WPA/LI. Even knocking 10 to 15 runs off his total for his lack of range, he was still an all-star quality player, because the bat was that good.
That’s the player he’s still remembered as - an offensive force at a premium position. It hasn’t been true for three years, however.
* * *
Michael Young’s current skillset makes him worth about one win above a replacement level shortstop, the kind you could get floating around on waivers. One win. The Rangers are going to pay him $16 million for that one win, and hope like crazy that the decline doesn’t continue at its current rate.
Meanwhile, most of baseball just continues to believe that Young is a premium player, the kind of guy winning teams are built around. It’s just not true - he’s not even league average at this point in his career.
Don’t believe the hype. Michael Young just isn’t very good.
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Harsh
but not untrue
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 6, 2008 7:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Do most teams actually believe this?
Meanwhile, most of baseball just continues to believe that Young is a premium player, the kind of guy winning teams are built around. It’s just not true – he’s not even league average at this point in his career.
Really? If so, can’t we trade him? Please?!
At this point I really would be happy just to be rid of him. He use to be my favorite player and all, but in a real world he’s just sucking us dry.
All that said. . . one win above replacement? What is his criteria on that (I’ll click the link in a moment). Baseball Prospectus has him at 8.1 wins above replacement. Though, Beyond the Boxscore has him at about 2. I have him somewhere in the middle (admittedly closer to the “2” end).
by philkid3 on Nov 6, 2008 7:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Bleh
I hate WPA.
If he’s using WPA, that’s crap.
WPA is an interesting stat to look at results-wise, but it’s horrible for predicting future performance.
R
by Requiem on Nov 6, 2008 7:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I love WPA.
I can’t imagine using it to actually judge a player’s value, though. I can MAYBE see it in an MVP debate, but not for actual team building analysis.
by philkid3 on Nov 6, 2008 8:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
But, the problem is that it seems like, from the blurb, that he’s saying that Young’s value going forth starts at 1 run above replacement.
I’d just rather get rid of it (like Range Factor) because people misuse the stat so much (like it seems like Cameron is doing here).
R
by Requiem on Nov 6, 2008 8:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
WPA/LI is a much different animal.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Nov 6, 2008 9:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's not using WPA. From the Fangraphs webpage:
WPA/LI (context neutral wins / game state linear weights): How many wins a player contributes to his team with the Leverage Index aspect removed, invented by Tom Tango.
J.K.L.
by acblue on Nov 6, 2008 9:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just Keep Livin,
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 6, 2008 9:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
All you Young haters can suck my......
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
by NYTXFAN on Nov 6, 2008 7:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think most of us...
aren’t Young haters… just Young’s contract haters. As has been said before, it’s not his fault. It’s not like he should have passed on the deal saying, “Mr. Hicks, I’m not sure I’ll be worth that in 2011”. It’s just tough to watch a player decline when he’s being paid a lot of money.
But, we better get used to it. He’s going nowhere.
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 6, 2008 7:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thing things you want us to suck...
are they kind of big and a blue, veiny color?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
by benmor78 on Nov 6, 2008 7:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ugh
24 hour news cycle right? no young hating posts tomorrow???
by SteveP on Nov 6, 2008 7:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
These hating posts are sort of fun to read...
like spraying a wasp nest with a water hose!
by Jea103 on Nov 6, 2008 7:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's his own damned fault.
He was just horrible with the bat this season. He’d better get it figured out during the offseason. Frankly, I’d like to see him put about 15-20 pounds back on, move to 3rd and start hitting for more power. Since he trimmed up to improve his mobility, he’s only been a little better in the field and much, much worse at the plate.
He has good hands, no doubt about that, so I think he’d do just fine at the hot corner.
by Athos on Nov 6, 2008 7:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ga
Gree
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 6, 2008 7:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i think he should
give half his paychecks to Hambone
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 6, 2008 7:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he should
purchase a Kauffmanesque Jumbotron for TBiA
by Telegraph on Nov 6, 2008 8:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't think he'll ever pack that much muscle on again.
tougher to do these days.
Nolan Ryan is the Greatest Pitcher ever, because Google says so.
"BTW I’m officially welching ab03. Yeah I planned too all along, but I figured I’d try to get off the hook with double or nothing first."- Sharky
by DJCahill on Nov 6, 2008 10:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Heh
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 6, 2008 10:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I do think his broken inger should get SOME consideration
He had a large dropoff the minute it happened.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on Nov 6, 2008 7:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I think Cameron is overblowing this a little. The average ML shortstop hit .271/.331/.390 in ‘08, and even if that is bumped up a bit in ’09, I have a hard time believing a healthy Young (that is, one without two broken fingers) won’t remain at least a bit above-average with the bat for his position. He’s got definite problems, and I’m not saying those shouldn’t be acknowledged (and, if at all possible, addressed), but let’s not make him out to be a replacement-level player even with his defensive deficiencies. He’s not at that point.
I’m also not a huge fan of WPA/LI.
by Joey Matschulat on Nov 6, 2008 8:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
that the whole analysis is flawed if it is based on WPA/LI.
I haven’t seen anything to show that it has predictive value, especially since we already have measures of players’ value which HAVE shown predictive value which don’t value Young anywhere near as poorly as WPA/LI.
Of course, that isn’t to say that Young won’t experience a decline, but that the argument seems to me to be flawed if based on WPA/LI.
R
by Requiem on Nov 6, 2008 8:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Imagine what he could do when healthy!
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 6, 2008 8:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's going a little far.
To say that Michael Young “just isn’t very good” is a poor characterization. If you want to criticize his defense, there’s a criticism to be made. But he is still a very good offensive shortstop, and that makes up for a lot, IMO. Even if he is overpaid.
I would say that he is a good shortstop who is paid like a great shortstop.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
by ghtd36 on Nov 6, 2008 8:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Are we over
The angst driven recognition envy from Seattle yet? ZZZZZ77777/////…….
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Nov 6, 2008 8:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Need an edit function
I entered and wasn’t done. Cameron’s article is well written, and evidently accurately researched and stated, even though I don’t know the formulation of WPA/LI. I also read Jeff Sullivan when I have time. So use the proverbial grain of salt, it’s just so monotonous to hash and rehash and recalculate Young’s performance (and screw the contract, he received it, he didn’t authorize it). Just for kicks, I’ll venture he produces a .315/.375/.430 line in 2009 (assuming healthy), and grades no worse than maybe 11th in whichever position he plays. I can tell you that playing through a broken finger on each hand, however fast he heals, is not disabling but sure does hamper swinging a bat. And yeah, the old concession about his location in the box stands. He has to get up a shoe’s width, and a couple of inches closer to the plate to be batting from where he set up in 2005. Maybe all the above won’t happen. I think it can, should, and maybe will.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Nov 6, 2008 8:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A request:
Please don’t belabor this story.
Your position is very clear and widely agreed with. We don’t need this to devolve into the next thread subplot, with the election finally over.
/ rant
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 6, 2008 8:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
geez, you really love Michael Young
imagine if he was actually bad or if you were a dodger fan
by Save us on Nov 6, 2008 9:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Dave Cameron
Is one of my new favorite people.
Just say no to Scott Olsen.
by lonestarJon on Nov 6, 2008 9:41 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
And you are still an idiot.
And so is Dave Cameron.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Nov 6, 2008 11:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Remember the good ol days
when we got to pile on Angel fans for their horrific contract to one year wonder Darin Erstad. Angel fans would say he was worth the contract for his intensity.
Good times.
Nolan Ryan is the Greatest Pitcher ever, because Google says so.
"BTW I’m officially welching ab03. Yeah I planned too all along, but I figured I’d try to get off the hook with double or nothing first."- Sharky
by DJCahill on Nov 6, 2008 10:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Stuck with him
I was always a big Mike Young fan. Well in the earlier days when he nobody thought he was all field and no hit at 2B.
And then came the move to SS. And then came a decline in production and a big contract. Because of that contract, the Rangers are pretty much stuck with him. That’s what we should be pissed about, not the fact that he won a Gold Glove. Yeah, it’s stupid, but it’s not something worth getting wound up about in my opinion.
Still think the best option (not all that appealing, but best) is to move him to 3B. There he may or may not be a Gold Glove caliber fielder. For real. But even if winning it at short makes him whine about a move (should they want him to), screw him. It ain’t a democracy…it’s a baseball team. Move him anyway.
by Black Francis on Nov 6, 2008 10:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I still love you
Mike Young. Lead our Rangers to the promised land.
by Slick-ish24 on Nov 6, 2008 11:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
and by lead...
he means: contribute occasionally as Hambone, Kinsler and Crush lead the Rangers to the Promised Land.
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 6, 2008 11:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Nov 7, 2008 12:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not even league average?
LOL. Name 15 SS’s you’d rather have up with a runner on 2nd and down by 1. You can’t even get close.
by BuckyB on Nov 7, 2008 1:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure you were responding to the right person.
But mean and median are not, at all, the same thing.
Also, the best player in the situation you present is not necessarily the best player period.
There were, however, 11 shortstops with a better GPA than MY in 2008, so. . . that’s pretty close to 15.
by philkid3 on Nov 7, 2008 1:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
stop the hate, child!
we get it – you hate Michael Young. Wait until you’ve got your share of anti-Young posts, put them all together in one post and move on to something else please…until he’s traded, benched, injured, actually moved to 3rd or he dies.
"Calmer than you are... "
by Walter Sobchak on Nov 7, 2008 2:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'd be willing to bet handomely that AJM does not hate Michael Young.
by philkid3 on Nov 7, 2008 3:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know, I know...
it was overkill on my behalf. I’ve just been reading all of this negative press, and sure AJM’s the conduit and not the source on a lot of these, but his comments regarding these posts are negative as well. It’d just be nice to be an ignorant fan and celebrate and applaud the leader of this team for the present. Let the future course come to us as it must, but for now, just have a little optimism and excitement about a Ranger being represented.
"Calmer than you are... "
by Walter Sobchak on Nov 7, 2008 12:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I have to say.
If you want to be an ignorant fan, you probably should not be spending any time on this blog.
by philkid3 on Nov 7, 2008 6:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Is that arrogant?
Or is Walter entitled to his opinion, without comment?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Nov 7, 2008 7:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think most of the posters here are extremely intelligent.
And I think AJM is very imformative.
If you want to be ignorant, why would you go somewhere that’s going to curb your ignorance?
by philkid3 on Nov 7, 2008 9:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll keep that in mind.
I don’t consider myself to be ignorant, nor fully informed…somewhere in between. I tend to take stats and rankings and opinions of scouts and guys such as JParks and Shroomer, then combine them with my own personal feel watching Frisco or the Rangers play to come up with my own personal opinions. I was simply saying we should take some time to appreciate the recognition of one of our own. Just like having four All Stars on a team that ended sub-.500. I think we all knew in the back of our minds we weren’t THAT good of a team, but it was nice to sit back, relax and watch the fireworks.
"Calmer than you are... "
by Walter Sobchak on Nov 7, 2008 7:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: hating Michael Young
I don’t think that’s the issue here.
For me at least, the issue is hating the 80 million dollar contract that he’s signed too, and hating his undeserved “star power” that could very well wind up blocking and/or leading to the trade of one of the best shortstop prospects in baseball.
The bottom line is (as Dave Cameron points out) is not only is he being paid waaay to much money for overall performances that are simply mediocre at this point, he’s now getting an award for a performance that was can only be termed average at the very, very best. Just like Derek Jeter, Michael Young is getting money and accolades he simply doesn’t deserve, and as someone who loves the sport of baseball, I don’t see how anyone can just sit and turn a blind eye to it for the sake of homerisim.
Just say no to Scott Olsen.
by lonestarJon on Nov 7, 2008 8:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well at least Jeter and Young both hit
better than the average SS. and at least you know Young’s status isn’t inflated because we’re in such a biased media coverage zone.
"Calmer than you are... "
by Walter Sobchak on Nov 7, 2008 12:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Leave Michael ALONE!
someone needs to edit that leave britney alone video and insert michael young where he says brittney.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on Nov 7, 2008 7:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
+1 billion
Paging DSheppard, paging DSheppard…
Just say no to Scott Olsen.
by lonestarJon on Nov 7, 2008 8:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
In Young's defense
He played most of last season with a broken finger. I imagine that was largely the reason for his decline from the previous two seasons.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
by trza on Nov 7, 2008 9:06 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
What was the excuse for the
2007 decline compared to 2006, and the excuse for the 2006 decline compared to 2005?
Nolan Ryan is the Greatest Pitcher ever, because Google says so.
"BTW I’m officially welching ab03. Yeah I planned too all along, but I figured I’d try to get off the hook with double or nothing first."- Sharky
by DJCahill on Nov 7, 2008 9:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well
There essentially was no decline from 2006 to 2007. 2005 was his career season. In 2004 he had the same level of production in 2006 and 2007.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
by trza on Nov 7, 2008 11:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There is
some 50 points of OPS difference between ’04 and ’07. You may as well say he had the same level of production from ’07 to ’08, as he only had around 40 points of OPS difference then.
Nolan Ryan is the Greatest Pitcher ever, because Google says so.
"BTW I’m officially welching ab03. Yeah I planned too all along, but I figured I’d try to get off the hook with double or nothing first."- Sharky
by DJCahill on Nov 7, 2008 11:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
lolol
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 7, 2008 12:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was looking at OPS+
And there was only a small decline. And his OBP went up from 2006 to 07. I think it’s splitting hairs, basically.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
by trza on Nov 7, 2008 2:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that played a significant role on his overall 2008 line
Pre-July 28th (when he sustained the origional injury) he hit .298/.345/.421, which is a .766 OPS. Post-July 28th he hit .256/.326/.363 (689 OPS).
That is a pretty huge dropoff, but even if he had maintained that .766 OPS through years end, it only would have bumped him up one spot among MLB shortstops with at least 500 PA’s. He’d have been tied for 9th out of 18 with Yunel Escobar – exactly mid-pack, in other words, and still down almost 20 points from his 2007 OPS of .783 (which was down from 814 in 2006).
Bottom line is, Young’s decline was indeed continuing this year, even before he got injured.
Just say no to Scott Olsen.
by lonestarJon on Nov 7, 2008 9:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
His contract sucks, but
I have a feeling if you offered to swap SS’s with 20-25 teams, they’d do it (money not considered).
by BuckyB on Nov 7, 2008 10:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Let's see
M Young – pre Injury – .298/.345/.421
No Trade
NYY – Jeter
CLE – Peralta – 26 – .276/.331/.473
KCR – Aviles – 27 – .325/.354/.480
PHI – Rollins
NYM – Reyes
FLA – Hanley Ramirez (though his defense is probably worse than Young’s)
ATL – Yunel Escobar – 25 – .288/.366/.401
CHC – Theriot – 28 – .307/.387/.359
MIL – Hardy – 25 – .283/.343/.478
ARI – S Drew – 25 – .291/.333/.502
COL – Tulowitzki – 23 – .263/.332/.401
Maybe/Probably
CHW – O Cabrera –
DET – Renteria – .270/.317/.382
WAS – Guzman – 30 – .316/.345/.440
HOU – Tejada
So, 11 No’s, and about 4 maybes.
That’s about middle of the middle of the pack BEFORE the contract.
R
by Requiem on Nov 7, 2008 4:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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