Defending Evan Grant
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 7, 2008 12:00 PM CST
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PrintEvan Grant has taken some flak the past few days over his defense of Michael Young's gold glove, and the statistics that he's used. In particular, there were some comments about Grant's reliance on Revised Zone Rating and regular Zone Rating in evaluating Young.
And in thinking about it, I think it is worth taking a step back and considering...how many beat writers out there do you think even know what Zone Rating is? Much less Revised Zone Rating? How many of them would reference them in an article in evaluating defense?
Compare Grant's analysis of Young's defense to, say, the TV broadcasters, whose analysis of our shortstop's defense boils down to, "Well, he doesn't make any errors, so he must do something right."
One of the areas where I think we, as Rangers fans, are fortunate is that Grant is probably on the forefront among the print media in looking at the newer, non-traditional stats. Go read some of the articles in other cities, and see how often beat writers use OPS or OBP rather than RBIs to evaluate a player's performance. Compare what tools he uses to evaluate players to the tools the writers in other cities use.
How many members of the print media use anything like ZR or RZR as anything other than a punchline for a joke about people sitting in their basement playing with a computer and never watching games?
I do disagree with Grant on the issue of Young's defense, but I also appreciate and give him credit for being willing to consider and talk about metrics that many of his colleagues either scoff at or ignore.
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I completely agree.
Although most here would agree that the +/- of Young seems to be a more accurate portrayal of his lack of range and shortcomings of a shortstop, I think most journalsts would cite # of errors and fielding percentage as definitive.
I was having a conversation with a friend (who I’ll call AH) of mine this morning who, for some unknown reason, is from Oklahoma but is a Red Sox fan. He was happy about Pedroia winning the GG, and I asked him if he deserved it. Having not looked at the stats at all, I figured he would at least make a good case. It went from bad to worse quickly (exact transcript):
FP: Did Pedroia deserve [the gold glove]?
AH: well i think mark ellis probably deserved it although they were neck and neck in errors and fielding percentage
FP: I think Young had the highest fielding percentage for all SS
AH: Nice
FP: however, young sucks at SS. It’s a question of range and what he gets to
AH: i think its a bunch of junk that youklis didn’t win. i think he had 1 error at first this year.
FP: ugh
ugh
ugh
dude
errors and fielding percentage don’t mean anything
of course range is a factor
but you can’t completely dismiss fielding percentage, especially for a shortstop.
I'm not
It was just an amusing conversation, I thought. Later on I said # or errors, fielding percentage tell you something, but I just don’t think they give a very accurate picture. Kind of like Batting Average. Somewhat interesting, a little indicative, but mediocre, at best.
Very, very true.
We are lucky to have E.G., IMO.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
It's ok
because his peers are worse? I don’t follow.
I see no reason why we shouldn’t expect quality analysis, if you choose to link him.
Do you pay attention to TV broadcasters?
Grant gets close to the team, which is his job. The fact that he plays favorites is out of his own interest. If it gets in the way of his writing, as it has recently, there is no point in reading him, imo.
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by inactive lsb user on Nov 7, 2008 12:11 PM CST reply actions
Grant
is not only a pretty decent baseball writer, he’s also much more willing than most to keep learning on the job, listen to fans and interact with them, examine new ways of looking at baseball, etc.
I think his defense of Young’s defense is fine and a valid viewpoint. I don’t completely agree with it, but I don’t completely disagree with it. Young’s contract makes him a target. The CJ Wilson affair made Grant a target, and for reasons less sound than Young’s contract. Those who think Grant has some sort of “agenda” with regards to any player are reading way too many conspiracy theories.
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and regarding all the Young talk
I really hope something happens with Rangers news soon. I am so tired of talking about Michael Young. I’d rather have another lengthy discussion of the San Diego or Danks-McCarthy trade than read another post about Young right now. Or even the Ranger uniform colors or Justin Thompson throwing. Maybe even basketball (shudder).
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Amen.
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by inactive lsb user on Nov 7, 2008 12:22 PM CST up reply actions
Actually...
…I think the preferred term is “extension of the Rangers marketing department.” Which is so utterly absurd. I like reading Grant, think he does a good job of trying to mix in more hardcore stats with the basic articles – he is a writer for a major American newspaper, after all.
I may be shaded a bit because I’ve met the guy and even though he was having dinner with some highschool friends, he still entertained a friend of mine and my questions about the team for awhile.
FJM gave him a nod about a year ago
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/search/label/evan%20grant
I agree with you tball, it takes a lot of guts to admit you’re wrong and be open to learning on the job. Kudos to Evan for being able to do that.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
thats cool
FJM is usually so tough on journalists, to have them point one for good is spectacular
well done, mate
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
+1
I don’t have a seriously problem with grant in general, just with some of how he went about things yesterday.
+1
The FFace / BGL thing is the root of it, imo.
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by inactive lsb user on Nov 7, 2008 6:40 PM CST up reply actions
I've always enjoyed EG.
agreed with him? Hardly. But he usually makes for interesting and thoughtful reads.
"Relying on the government to protect your privacy is like asking a peeping tom to install your window blinds."
Thanks. Thanks. Thanks.
As always, the LSB community makes me feel good about doing my job. I appreciate Adam taking time out to post a “defense” of me. And to those of you who have already made comments, you really make me feel good about my job. To hear folks say “interesting,” “thoughtful,” and “we are lucky to have E.G,” in reference to me is just overwhelming.
And for those who are unsure, let me try and say once more: There are no agendas except to bring you the most insightful, thoughtful and entertaining Rangers coverage possible. In today’s day and age of declining print readership and more and more on-line involvement, we are constantly evolving. I often look to the LSB community to guide me about what Rangers fans are seeking.
I’m glad to hear that some folks think they are fortunate to have me as the Rangers beat writer. I know I’m fortunate _ and this club is fortunate beyond it’s wildest dreams _ to have you as readers and fans.
Thanks again, Evan.
evolving tech, etc.
I must say, the DMN blog and writing is much more interesting than the Rangers’ own website/blog.
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indeed
and much more interesting than a lot of the stuff at the fwst (though i do like wilson’s writing).
i really do like reading articles from a beat writer who doesnt just look at rbi’s and say a player is good.
evan, do you read/subscribe to any of the publications such as baseball prospectus ?
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
Totally
I skim the TR Sullivan mailbag, if only sometimes for the wild trade proposals, but I read thoroughly each and every DMN Rangers Newsletter. Great job.
Now if we could just get you to stop your inexplicable vendetta against Chris-John you'd be the man.
But in all seriousness you are one of the best.
Sometimes I read one of the links to another team’s beat writers that AJM spoons out to us every morning and I’m just floored by the dumb those guys bring to the table.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
I'm not a Dallas resident, so most stuff I get from your neck of the woods I get linked her.
I’m sure I speak for more than myself when I say, though, that even if I disagreed vehimently with some of your work yesterday, in general I tend to be able to get on board with your stuff.
Keep up the good work.
In my opinion
the “controversy” here points more to the fact that fielding stats just aren’t as mature as hitting/pitching stats.
and it will take
several more years of messing with numbers to come up with anything close. And then it will take many more years after that before most writers, managers, and fans actually care.
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Fielding is subjective, hitting and pitching aren't
If a guy swings and misses strike three its a strikeout. Doesn’t matter if its a curveball, slider, ball, strike, whatever its a strikeout.
If a pitcher strikes a guy out its a strikeout. Doesn’t matter if he strikes out the league top hitter or the opposing teams pitcher it counts the same.
However if a ball is hit and takes a funny bounce the scorer can say whether or not its a error or hit. If a catcher throws to second base on a steal attempt and the ball shorthops the base its a error on the catcher even though the guy covering could have gotten in front of it to at least keep it from going into CF instead of trying to swipe it backhanded to make a tag.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
That's the number one problem with analyzing fielding stats
It’s just like Big Steve said: They are much more subjective than hitting and pitching stats. Fielding analysis tries to focus on what should have happened; Hitting and pitching stats (aside from projections) focus on what did happen. Easier to analyze and understand them than fielding.
I agree
Aside from not being fully vetted, fielding statistics are better at pointing out singlular short comings, and narrow areas where a defender may be lacking in comparison to others. Very difficult to get an all-encompassing fielding statistic — similar to QB Rating (please, no one try to make one for fielding).
The single thing
That looms above all else is that relevant stats make better fodder for criticism than for praise. And in truth, blogs and forums contain much, much for critique than “me too” praise or notice of singular accomplishments. Why do I think so? Simply this. Baseball is a series of small episodes, unlike football or basketball where positional participation in offensive strategy (playbooks) and defensive strategy (sets, zones, man to man matchups) are planned events. Of course all athletics depends on execution, so that’s a must. And in baseball, some strategy can be employed with lineup selection, pitchers briefing on opponents, defensive positioning depending on who is at bat, etc.
But everything that happens after bat strikes ball is situation dependent, with execution being a very significant factor. Range, or range factor, is kind of like a basketball player’s “vertical” when adjudging him as a defender or shot blocker. What he “can” do has a boundary, but it’s what happens within that boundary that counts, and produces numbers.
Long story short, defensive goodness is even harder to gauge than discussed, because even a good eyeball observer doesn’t know if a player has positioned for pitch contact probablility, run prevention spotting, or signal from a bench coach. There are more intangibles, but I’m out of bandwidth breath.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Nov 7, 2008 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
Please, Ed
Range, not Range Factor.
Range Factor is James’ big FU to defensive stats. (I kid, but only a little.)
Range Factor is so completely misunderstood that people STILL cite it when evaluating defense.
It should ALMOST NEVER be used for that.
R
True, and good correction
I actually had the “zone” grid in mind but didn’t have a good way to correlate it with variations in positioning and pitcher/hitter circumstance. Thanks, Req.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Nov 7, 2008 2:40 PM CST up reply actions
Except that it's not black and white
Like bigsteve tends to do.
Hitting and pitching ARE more objective than fielding.
But there’s no single divide between where hitting and pitching are 100% objective while fielding is 100% subjective.
I know you’re not saying that, but I felt that it needed to be addressed.
The larger point I want to make to you is that current fielding stats fluctuate too much within a year (or are too filled with error) to be able to say anything definitively.
You need a larger sample size before you can say with a significant degree of certainty whether a player was “the best” or “among the best.”
This is why Neyer draws upon previous seasons of defensive stats to evaluate players for this year. Because you want to eliminate flukes of defensive stats (which are much more likely to happen than with offensive stats) when awarding awards like the Gold Gloves.
Of course, the Gold Gloves have been a joke for a long time, so maybe it’s not important to change how they’re awarded. But considering that they are used in HOF arguments, maybe it’s important to fix this problem.
R
"I know you’re not saying that, but I felt that it needed to be addressed."
And I, for one, will thank you for doing so.
Oh and by the way. ...
I’ve posted an interminally long look at Young winning the Gold Glove and Rob Neyer’s analysis on his blog. If you’ve got a minute (or more like an hour), check it out.
Thanks EG
I appreciate your work and the thoughtful approach you take “in forum”.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Nov 7, 2008 1:09 PM CST up reply actions
I appreciate reading this
I think Grant is a good writer, and an insightful one. His stuff is significantly better than the average baseball beat writer. I think we are fortunate to have him covering the Rangers. I also appreciate that he stands up for us LSB’ers from time to time and seems to like us.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
Yep
Where’s that Hater Dirkatron?
Isn’t he about due to pile on with some of his “Evan is out to destroy CJ and kill him deader than an 8-track tape” hatespeech?
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
I was at the gym.
Some of us aren’t married and don’t get our loving once per week, per the pre-nup. We still gotta work for out.
That little burn out of the way…
I still think Evan treated Chris-John unfairly and threw him under the bus with unfettered glee. I don’t know what their relationship is like behind the scenes but I can’t escape the feeling Evan dislikes CJ as a person.
Of course the fact that every other single person affiliated with the Rangers went on the record as being a hater of the Siege (even freaking Eric Nadel posted a blog about what travesty of a human Siege was, for cryssakes) does lessen my anger with Evan over his role of Ceej-under-bus-thrower. But not too much.
And he’s still a good beat writer. If I ever said otherwise I did so angry and didn’t mean it. All you have to do is take a look around the league at what other local papers are rocking to know we’re lucky.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
Work for "it".
Sigh… If you misspell/use the wrong word in the burn it doesn’t even hurt. Not even a big Sensitive Stephanie like my old pal Tomato Sauce.
That’s Burn 101 stuff and I still screwed it up.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
All things considered
The DMN Blog is staffed by some pretty damn good writers. We all know about EG’s and MJH’s little idiosyncrasies, and we have plenty of fun with them, but they’re about as good as you’re going to get out there.
If only they could slip Tim McMahon over to PFT full-time, and require at least an IQ of 49 to post a comment there…
Michael Young
First of all, I hope this does not preclude him from getting moved to third, bulking up 15 lbs and start getting back to the 20-25 HR guy he was. Also, I think he will be an above avg 3B.
Secondly, hopefully Young realizes the he is, at best, an average defensive shortstop that makes the plays he gets to. Not bad but this team needs more. I just dont want this to affect his move to third. I mean, if i were him, there is no shame in winning the award because his peers respected him so much.
Position changes
Comparable, in some ways. This guy, whose statistical ups and downs in three year intervals are interesting. Also a shortstop, changed positions more than once. Also a multiple time AllStar, Not sure why Baseball Reference spells his name differently.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kuennha01.shtml
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Nov 7, 2008 2:13 PM CST up reply actions
Very OT: Can we please get a new poll on the main page?
I really don’t care which of the Simpsons characters you dudes wanna bone
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
by trident on Nov 7, 2008 2:22 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
No kidding
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Yeah,
I want to know which Simpson character would be better at SS than M. Young.
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It's definitely not
comic book guy.
Worse.Shortstop.Ever.
he’s still hitting better than Saltalasuckia—while playing vastly superior defense...Athos
Homer
has roughly the same range.
Nolan Ryan is the Greatest Pitcher ever, because Google says so.
"BTW I’m officially welching ab03. Yeah I planned too all along, but I figured I’d try to get off the hook with double or nothing first."- Sharky
My take.....
We have to remember that the audience to most of these writer’s stuff is the average Ranger fan, not the hardcore folks on this site.
I couldn’t imagine TAG and Lewin breaking down MY’s fielding numbers on TV as half of the watching audience is sitting there with a puzzled look on their faces. “Honey, what the hell is RZR and +/-?? Lewin is talkin’ that jibberish again!!”
I know we would love writers and TV folks to back up their opinions of players with hardcore numbers, but we are in the minority. Most of it makes my head spin after a while anyway!!
The day that FSN tosses up a graphic breaking down the RZR of A.L. shortstops, will be the day that I say….. “Now, we’re talking!! Go read LSB if you don’t understand, fool!!”
i like baseball too
" couldn’t imagine TAG and Lewin breaking down MY’s fielding numbers on TV as half of the watching audience is sitting there with a puzzled look on their faces. "Honey, what the hell is RZR and +/-?? Lewin is talkin’ that jibberish again!!"
Or, you know, they could…I dunno…explain it, and then talk about it and whatnot.
I see no reason to dumb it on down to the lowest common denominator.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
ESPN has started mentioning Zone Rating now and then.
Which is better than nothing. And, like you suggest, they tend to explain it now and then when they talk about it.
I agree, Adam, to an extent.
And I think I said this elsewhere. I like that he knows that RZR existed and cited it and all, but he loses almost all the points he gained for citing it by citing it irresponsibly. To reaffirm an opinion he had already decided he wanted to have and just flat out ignoring OOZ, which should be married to RZR.
I would agree with this
Except for the fact that it feels like Grant is really cherry-picking his stats here. As I mentioned in the AM things today, he name-drops Dewan an the fielding bible as the creator of RZR – an yet I haven’t seen him even acknowledge the existence of+/- yet. And that makes me think it’s not because EG doesn’t know +/- exists, it’s because it blows his position out of the water.
Don’t get me wrong though, I like Evan. I was among the crowd that defended him on the CJ Wilson incedent, and I’ve always thought of him as the cream of the Ranger beatwriter crop. It’s just that it’s painfully obvious not only through his recent work, but from stuff in the past, that Michael Young is his favorite player – and as a result h seems to be leaving out some important parts of the story when it comes to the issue of Young’s defense.
Just say no to Scott Olsen.
And he isn't being graded
In terms of thorough criticism. Nor are you.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Nov 7, 2008 8:01 PM CST up reply actions
To be fair (and I think I said this in another thread). . .
. . . I actually knew about Dewan and RZR for a couple years before I knew about +/-.
That said, dropping RZR and ignoring OOZ when, as you said, it blows his position out the water is the issue I had. Those two are peanut butter and jelly.
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