Yanks reportedly reach deal with Burnett
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 12, 2008 4:49 PM CST
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PrintThe Yankees have supposedly reached an agreement with A.J. Burnett on a 5 year, $82.5 million deal.
That's a lot of money for a guy who has been a cipher for much of his career, and who has health problems.
And the Yanks are getting his age 32-36 seasons.
Color me skeptical.
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Health
AJ Burnett has a history of sketchy health, a 311 lb CC Bigs is considered by most people here to be a ticking time bomb…maybe this will be more vast amounts of money wasted on unproductive players a la Giambi? Man, I hate the Yankees.
ah... beat me to it...
…like iwas just typing… who do we get of interest from atlanta that we didn’t get in the texeiria deal though?
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
no spelling nazi's necessary for the above. i know the the errors and apologize.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
Who cares
a couple of live arms and then spin the salary into Sheets and call it a win.
Fire Ron Washington
not sure
i have no real idea how much value one (or two) years of Millwood would be. Take a gander. I like Locke and Osuna, both LHPs.
Forget the idea of Sheets coming to Texas. He's looking at a shorter contract
but similar annual dollars, and it appears the Rangers feel they can not go that high but are hoping for bargain deals this offseason. Even if Millwood is traded to the Braves, I don’t think the Rangers would sink $13-15M into Sheets. It seems more likely RJ would be here if Millwood is traded.
I’ve seen a rumor of the Marlins might be willing to part with Ryan Tucker and interested in MaxRam. Tucker doesn’t have a third pitch, but has an excellent fastball and inconsistent change. Not sure how I feel about that deal, since I haven’t read much about Tucker.
Go Rangers!
if this team deals Millwood and Blalock
i see no reason they cannot afford to bring in Sheets. The Yanks were their main competition, but that hinged upon the outcome of Burnett.
Max for Tucker is definitely interesting
Tucker has a big time fastball, but I don’t know that his changeup or breaking pitches are good enough to keep him as a starter. Definitely an intriguing bullpen arm with closer potential.
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i don't love Tucker
he has that amazing FB, but couple it with an inconsistent change and no breaking ball. He looks like a future bullpen arm to me unless he makes serious progress on his slider, so i would ask for another piece.
With the Salty for Hermida rumor
maybe this is a name the Rangers are targeting to expand that deal. I am not sure why Hermida would be brought in either, but that is two names the Rangers are now somewhat tied to.
CC, AJ, Wang and Joba...oh my
Tucker is terrible,
and should not be a name that the Rangers are thinking about trading Salty for.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
Let me know how you really feel
I should note I would not be on board with moving Salty for that either, just saying that both of those guys have been loosely tied to the Rangers, whatever that means.
CC, AJ, Wang and Joba...oh my
i dont like the idea of either on their own
but if it was salty for hermida and tucker, then thats not bad.
the preceding post was a great success.
Tucker throws
a cutter according to BA’s 2007 top 10.
His breaking stuff needs work. The Marlins took away Tucker’s curveball and weren’t too impressed with his slider, so they gave him a cutter instead.
Sheets
Burnett got 16.5 mil per year. Millwood makes 11 and Laird would have made about 3. Theres 14 mil freed up. If getting Sheets meant only an increase of 2-3 mil for this season i think we will be all over it.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
still...that yanks rotation is freaknasty
with CC, AJ, Wang, and Joba.
And add that to a great bullpen, they should win the WS next year.
Stability is key, and JD is a Beast.
Jindal - 2012
Yanks
If 3 of those guys can stay healthy then I think they make it to the WS
by meatbonelefty on Dec 12, 2008 5:07 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think the Yanks will make it to the WS
even with a revamping front of the rotation. Burnett will be an albatross of a contract. (of course, yankees don’t care). They always try to buy these players. We’ve yet to see how CC will deal with the people of NY. Good luck.
Wait 'til the year after next
I thought the consensus among the "experts" is
that you can’t win big through the FA route?
Smile when you call me Beat Weed!
Right...
How about Hindman and Morris…and it’s “experts”, not experts.
Smile when you call me Beat Weed!
No
It’s the “experts”
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Yanks' rotation
Is it really better than the Rays’ rotation: Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnastine? I don’t think it is. And the Yanks offense isn’t much to speak of outside of ARod, especially if Cano doesn’t rebound.
Fire Ron Washington
Last I heard
Joba was starting the year in the bullpen again.
"I´d like to apologize in advance for anything that I may say or do that could be construed as offensive as I slowly go NUTS."
Color me amused
Short term gain. I can’t wait to see what happens in 2-4 years. 2013 is going to be a pure disaster.
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
i would take ONE WS
over anything right now, even if that means 30 years of ineptitude follows.
Stability is key, and JD is a Beast.
Jindal - 2012
this does
not mean that the yankees are anywhere near guaranteed a title. The yankees have done this several times before, but the Red Sox are still way ahead of them. I hate the Red Sox as much as the next, but they are still ahead of the curve on how to run an orginization with alot of money.
Amazing...
almost 250 million for CC and Burnett. The Yanks may think these are good deals now, but I’m telling you come the 3rd, 4th or 5th year of those deals they are going to be kicking themselves that they have that much $ tied up into 2 players. Now it is the Yankees so it won’t hurt them as much as any other team, but believe me it will hurt them.
This is very good for the Rangers too as now I don’t believe the Yankees will be in on Sheets and other teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Brewers, etc. will be looking for cheaper options for starting pitching once Lowe signs. The next few weeks are going to bring many Millwood/Padilla rumors.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
meh
im not so sure the yankees are ignorant of the issue you bring up. they’ve surely considered the possiblity that either of these guys could suffer from injury or performance issues in the latter years of the contracts. for the next few years it makes them pretty freaking competitive in the AL East.
I dont think it will hurt them all that much if things go south for CC or AJ. The Yankees more than any other team can absorb bad contracts. Not only that, they can absorb multiple bad contracts and big bad contracts. theyll still have room to sign Hamels or Lincecum or whomever else is the available flavor of the winter in a few years
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Dec 12, 2008 5:41 PM CST up reply actions
It's not the contracts
It’s the 25 man roster. AJ and CC can’t be on the DL all the time.
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
Maybe they do bring the Milly/Padilla rumors
but I would think this brings more suitors into the fold for Sheets. When Lowe signs, Sheets is the last top tier guy left… and I don’t see why Atlanta or LA or somebody won’t enter the mix that isn’t already mentioned
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
I wonder if the yankees are done.....
Or are they going to sign Tex as well….
maybe they will sign Lowe to a huge contract to be a middle man.
I hear they may just buy the entire Tampa Bay Rays organization and merge it with the Yankees.
sigh….
by death of the cool on Dec 12, 2008 5:41 PM CST reply actions
this is
one huge step towards us getting Sheets. Eliminates our main competition and gives us a destination for Milwood. This was a big signing
they've been
linked to Milwood, and i think i heard they didnt want Sheets. It makes more sense to me that they’d just go out and sign Sheets. But they very well could just like the investment in Milwood more than Sheets…
They could have had their
eyes set on certain people for a long term deal, and if they didn’t get it they will just get a 1 year guy(like Millwood) and try again next year with the FAs then
He's barely been worth that much money about twice in his career.
And usually he’s not even close.
And he’s old.
But it’s also the Yankees. Bad contracts are like dandruff to them.
At first my brain lied
and thought you had written 5 years / $32 million, and I said to myself – “that’s cheaper than I thought he’d get and isn’t a bad deal, but still kind of risky when he’s missing all of 2011-2012 with injury.” Then I saw that was actually $82 million and just laughed.
5 for 32?
I don’t think that’s risky at all. That would be a damn steal.
That would be expecting him to be worth less than a single win above replacement at the end of his contract. If that’s a risk, then I just don’t know what to think anymore.
Yeah, it'd probably be a steal
and of course he wouldn’t go for it (its been a long day, my brain wasn’t firing altogether when I saw it). But I don’t know if he’ll be worth that at the end of his contract. I’m very bearish on Burnett – when you sign him for 5 years you have to realize you’re probably only going to get the equivalent of 3 seasons out of him. And he’s a good pitcher, but not great – only his 2002 season (and 2007 a little bit) really would excite me.
Basically, I don’t think the Yanks signing Burnett is any different than the Rangers signing Milly a few years ago; with the big exception that the over/under on healthy seasons from Burnett is about 3.5 whereas Milly was nearly 5. So discounting the almost certain future injury time and comparing to what Millwood got, Burnett should probably be making 5/40 or so.
On the other hand
Dave Cameron and his use of the silly Marcel system disagrees
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-values-aj-burnett
His projection for his contract was almost exactly right. Of course, it assumed he’d average 190 innings a year (he’s only topped that 3 times in his career), and stay at a well above league average pitcher (which seems somewhat generous). So basically the 5/$82 million contract doesn’t represent the risk that I think everyone (except that stupid Marcel monkey) would agree Burnett has
Yeah, Marcel is pretty dumb
I don’t buy it. I understand the point – a simple forecasting model for players based solely on past performance – but to me it represents sabermetrics gone awry.
I’m sure there are some players for whom Marcel does a good job on, and at a population level, I think its been shown to be quite effective. The problem is that tends to distribute individual risk across all players, which does two things. 1> Highly reliable players get underrated. 2> Risky players get overrated.
Over a population, it doesn’t matter which players get injured or have crappy years, because you know some will. But in assessing individual value, you will run into problems. The downside risk with Johan Santana and AJ Burnett is NOT the same. Assuming that it is is going to get you to undervalue Santana and overvalue Burnett.
I think its been shown to be quite effective
Then how is it dumb?
Imperfect =/= dumb.
You bring up a perfect reason it’s flawed. Not that it’s dumb.
semantics?
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 12, 2008 10:31 PM CST up reply actions
Even the Marcel people would agree that it is "dumb"
it isn’t meant to be sophisticated or “intelligent.” Its a simple model that projects recent history into the near future. There is no complex model, thus “dumb”.
It has some utility, but I’d argue that is mostly for populations rather than individuals, and if you happen to choose to go to an individual level, you are asking for a LOT of trouble by going more than a year into the future. Using 3 years of recent history to project what a guy will do in 5 years is not smart usage of statistics.
If that's how you always meant it, then I could agree.
But you seemed to use it in a condescending, dismissive fashion.
Yankees
They were just so heartbroken after Carl Pavano became a FA, that they went and got his replacement.
"Yeah, like I had a chance there" - Lancaster batter, after striking out against Derek Holland
Daniel Cabrera
It is rumored he is going to be non-tendered if the O’s can’t trade him first. Would you take a stab at him if you were the Rangers? He is still just 28.
Fire Ron Washington
Edwin Jackson, part II
"I´d like to apologize in advance for anything that I may say or do that could be construed as offensive as I slowly go NUTS."
Freaking LSB 2.0....
"I´d like to apologize in advance for anything that I may say or do that could be construed as offensive as I slowly go NUTS."
I'll be damned
It did it twice in a row.
Both those comments are supposed to say “nope, pass” as well.
"I´d like to apologize in advance for anything that I may say or do that could be construed as offensive as I slowly go NUTS."
Remember when...
…it was suggested he’d be the centerpiece of a package for Teixeira?
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 12, 2008 8:41 PM CST up reply actions
I might take a shot...
at him and try to use him as a power arm out of the ’pen.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Ehh
We’ve got Dustin Nippert for that. Daniel Cabrera has walked 5.11 men per 9 innings in 841 career IP. Not that Nippert is Greg Maddux or anything, but his 4.64 BB/9 is a lot more palatable – and he kind of earned a shot of some kind in the bullpen this year with his September performance.
"I´d like to apologize in advance for anything that I may say or do that could be construed as offensive as I slowly go NUTS."
Nippert vs. Cabrera
Nippert’s stuff is superior to Cabrera’s, too.
by Andy Seiler on Dec 13, 2008 11:02 AM CST up reply actions
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