How much is Millwood really worth?
by laxtonto on Dec 15, 2008 10:43 PM CST
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PrintWith the FA market at SP kinda thin after the Yankee's purged the market, and with the announcement today that Peavy is not going to get moved this winter, I was curious on the overall value of Millwood for some of these teams that need a starter.
Contrary to public perception Millwood is no where near as bad as advertised.
Out of the 41 SP that pitched 160 or more innings last year in the AL he was 20th in FIP (4.02), 18th in BB/9, 21st in K/9, 18th in K/BB, 19th in HR/9, and of course 1st in BABIP. Out of the 89in all of baseball he is 42nd in FIP, 34th in K/BB, 47th in K/9, 37th in K/BB, 44th in HR/9 and of course once agin 1st in BABIP.
Suprisingly to of the most comparable players to Millwood on those perphirals last year are Mark Buherle, Paul Maholm and Matt Garza. Millwood will not have the same value as those 3, but he is no where as poor statistically as some may think.
I am in no way advocating that he is a stand alone ace of this staff, but if the Ranger's can acquire Sheets at a comparable value, Millwood would not be an impossible albotross to move. Millwood is a very average pitcher that is a #3 on a OK team or a #4 on a great staff.
His 11M due this year and the conditional 12M (upon completion of approx 175 ip next year) are no where the titanic blow that people fret about. In a league where Meche recieves 11.4M this year, even a slight discount 2 to 3M range would make Millwood a vaible option for several teams.
So, more importantly, what would be an average return and location for Millwood?
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I would like to point out that I wanted to do a quick analysis using marginal win value and pRAA.
But as he was worth 7.7 runs BELOW average, that was pretty hard.
That was an improvement over 2007, though.
BTW
His 2006 season would be worth about 8.2 million.
I think last year was worth around 2.7, but I could be doing the math wrong.
I know...
an amount somewhere between the value of this fanpost and Ramon Nivar’s glasses.
Proud graduate of the Kenny Rogers anger management class.
your right
stupid like creating a fanpost with a mile of blank space on it
Proud graduate of the Kenny Rogers anger management class.
email sbnation with your complaints
fuck off… don’t bug me with this shit. I’m a busy man.
I’ve got to catch flight out in the morning.
ouch.
You are going to have a rough morning.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
I'm wide awake
Hell my flight out is not that big of a deal
What makes me is Hicks should for my ticket.
God damn right… Hey JD can u get Mr. Hicks to fork over my plane ticket
Millwood's value would at it's highest
at the trade deadline. He is in a contract year and millwood pitches best when pitching for a contract.
Padilla of course is in the same boat. Hold onto them as of now and sign Sheets now
Wait 'til the year after next
He has a ridiculous number of accounts.
It’s almost easier just to fight through (ignore) the crazy.
Millwood's worth
nothing to me. I’m fairly confident that a guy like Matt Harrison or Tommy Hunter could pitch about as well as Millwood, and the benefit would be that they’d get lots of experience in for 2010 rather than taking their lumps that year.
Bottom line: this team is not going to win a championship with Millwood in this rotation making $12M. If he’s not part of the solution, he’s part of the problem. Clear a spot in the rotation and use his $12M in part to go after Sheets.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
Why
would Millwood draw any favorable attention at all? He has gotten blasted the last two years, and you can’t say it’s just because he has pitched on our park because he has gotten killed on the road those last two years. His combined away ERA the last 2 years is worse than his home ERA. He’st just not very good. We’d have to pay part of his ’09 contract I bet for someone to take him off our hands.
"Some mornings it just doesn't seem worth it to gnaw through the leather straps."
- Emo Phillips
If the Rangers deal Millwood...
they won’t be eating any of his contract. His salary isn’t bad for what decent starters are being paid right now. The only reason to deal him is to free up $ to go afer a guy like Sheets. If they can’t do that then I suspect they will just hold onto him.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
harrison/hunter
that is a bet of an exaggeration. if they did, we would all be pretty happy
Mandatory reading before suggesting a trade
Marcels
Because PECOTA isn’t out yet.
Millwood: 162 IP, 4.94 ERA, 4.16 FIP
Harrison: 102 IP, 4.68 ERA, 4.67 FIP
Hunter: 65 IP, 5.26 ERA, 4.56 FIP
I would gladly give Harrison all of Millwood’s starts if it meant losing Millwood’s contract, but I do think Millwood will probably be better this year than Harrison.
WTH?
Do the feilders sit on lawn chairs when Hunter pitches? Sheesh…
Also, a poster in the prediction thread was very close to Matt “Man Crush” Harrison’s Marcel numbers…is he intimate with that monkey?
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
You think they suck with Hunter?
My boy Luis Mendoza……. 8.67 ERA, 4.93 FIP… I haven’t found a bigger gap.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Yeah right... Facing his third batter in the big-leagues, he basically walked right in front of Alex Rios on the first-base line.
Everybody in the stands was laughing.
by oc on Dec 16, 2008 9:22 PM CST up reply actions
Great, this again.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
What...
Lance Bass?
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Hehe
Don’t push your luck!
This is an exciting time in my life.
The LSB CPP's are in full bloom.
by inactive lsb user on Dec 16, 2008 7:59 PM CST up reply actions
My used phrase of the offseason
“Millwood isn’t as bad as you think”
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Most***
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
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