Saturday a.m. things
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2008 11:10 AM CST
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PrintWell, the exciting news for today is that the Rangers have shuffled their scouting department around.I have no thoughts on this. Z might. I'll wait and see if he weighs in.
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the fact that its all quiet on the sheets front
good news, bad news, or.. not news.
the preceding post was a great success.
waiting
Everyone is waiting for Boras to get over his ego trip. Once Teixeira signs then things will start happening.
Here’s a look at some parties who will be affected by Teixeira’s choice:
1. Red Sox. With David Ortiz coming off his worst year in a Boston uniform, and with Mike Lowell on the mend from surgery to repair his right hip, the Red Sox have targeted Teixeira since the end of the 2008 season. They’re unlikely to give up now, as Henry’s statement clearly was posturing in the never-ending head game with Boras.
Boston’s offer is believed to be eight years and about $180 million. Should Teixeira go elsewhere – the Nationals are thought to be offering about the same amount of money – then the Red Sox would have to scour the trade market to acquire an elite hitter. The only other front-line hitter available on the free-agent market is Manny Ramirez, and the Sox will pass on him. You might have heard there was an ugly divorce there.
2. Angels. Manager Mike Scioscia said this past week he’d be open to signing Manny if Los Angeles can’t re-sign Teixeira. Angels general manager Tony Reagins sounded less enthusiastic. If they whiff on Teixeira and pass on Manny, the Angels could return to their standard approach of pitching and defense and go after free-agent starter Ben Sheets or free-agent closer Brian Fuentes.
3. Nationals. Complete non-entities in the nation’s capital, this group is desperate to make an impact. So if they can’t get Teixeira, who else on the free-agent market can deliver like that? There’s only one. Manny Being Manny for Congress, anyone?
4. Mets. They would prefer that Teixeira land in Boston. That way the Red Sox won’t have money left over for Derek Lowe, whom the Mets want to add to their rotation. In any case, it looks good for the Mets to sign one of their top two choices, Lowe and Oliver Perez.
5. Yankees. For obvious reasons, they’d be happy if Teixeira signed with someone other than Boston. No matter what happens, however, the Yankees will see themselves dragged into more speculation about players whom they don’t really want that badly.
They’ve barely even discussed Ramirez, but once Teixeira decides and the spotlight turns to Manny, so it will turn to the Yankees. Brian Cashman likely would be interested only if Ramirez begs for a one-year deal.
As for Teixeira, the Yankees are staying in touch with Boras, but they would have to move considerable payroll – trade Kei Igawa and Xavier Nady and say no to Mike Cameron and Andy Pettitte – to make that happen. Now that he has significantly upgraded his starting rotation, Cashman appears content with his offense as currently constructed.
6. Dodgers. Joe Torre’s crew still wants Ramirez back, so they’d prefer that Teixeira go somewhere besides Boston, taking a Manny competitor off the table.
Mitch Moreland - Rangers 2009 Minor League Player of the Year
i read that earlier
and was kinda disturbed to see him hypothesize the angels going after sheets. if he doesnt sign with us id like to see him sign with anyone before anaheim.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Dec 20, 2008 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
+1
If Sheets winds up with the F’ing Angels I might kill something. Preferrably something wearing an Angel hat.
"I´d like to apologize in advance for anything that I may say or do that could be construed as offensive as I slowly go NUTS."
preferably Mike Scioscia..
you could feed an African family for a month with that carcass, at least make a wrong a right.
Criss Angel has no meat on his bones.
"You shouldn't fuck around with windfalls"
LoneStarJon
by LAMuscleFag on Dec 20, 2008 12:12 PM CST up reply actions
I have to imagine
that Bill James has been all over the Red Sox to sign Tex and has assured them he will do quite well for 8 years plus.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Dec 20, 2008 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
Teixeira is very good
He’s not great, though. He’s not a top 10 player in baseball. He’s probably one of the 4-5 best first basemen in the game. But I doubt Bill James is telling the BoSox, back up the truck and offer this guy one of the biggest contracts in the history of the game.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2008 12:55 PM CST up reply actions
That 8/$140M contract
Hicks offered was a decent starting point. I wouldn’t want the Rangers to spend much more than that, especially considering the length of the deal.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
if Tex keeps this up
he’s going to end up being a great player. He’s not just a one-dimensional player either, he’s a GREAT defensive player. You add his defensive abilities + his offensive game, and he’s only 28, if he keeps up this production for the next 7-8 years, he’s a HOFer…especially if he finishes his career in Boston and in that ballpark…
Stability is key, and JD is a Beast.
Jindal - 2012
Well, sure...
…if he keeps hitting until he is 35-36 the way he has in his late 20s, he’s a HOFer. However, most players don’t do that.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2008 1:32 PM CST up reply actions
heh
most players don’t do that
HOFers do.
But, if he is in line with what PECOTA has for him, that’s a HOF career IMO.
Stability is key, and JD is a Beast.
Jindal - 2012
I don't think that's the case
I think that the majority of HOFers do better in their late 20s than they do in their early to mid 30s.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2008 2:01 PM CST up reply actions
yeah
i was trying to be a bit facetious there.
I just don’t see a guy like Tex slowing down that much anytime soon. Of course, there will be some attrition, but i don’t think it will be that drastic into his 30s…
Stability is key, and JD is a Beast.
Jindal - 2012
Also
PECOTA has him averaging about 30 homers per year, and an EQA in the .300-.310 range, in his early 30s.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2008 2:02 PM CST up reply actions
AJM,
We differ. Tex is very, very good and on the road to greatness. The only 1B I would take ahead of him Pujols and if we’re not counting pitchers, Tex is an easy top 10 player… and has taken only one step into his prime.
I think it was Bill Veeck who said that he didn’t mind paying high salaries to stars but what bothered him is the high cost of mediocrity. Telling the Red Sox which players are going to be good long-term investments is one of the exact reasons he works for them.
Bill James is big on projecting the kind of career players are going to have and if the Red Sox offered Tex $ 180 million plus, you can bet that James said he will still be a productive player at the end of the deal.
If Tex plays in Boston, he’s always going to have men on base when he comes up to hit and will also have protection behind him as well. With good health, he’ll easily make the HOF.
I’m going to be shocked if he doesn’t go with the Bosox or Angels because playing for a skinflint owner that didn’t give an S about winning with an incompetent GM running the show while he was in Texas left a really bad taste in his mouth.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Well
He’s 29 this coming year. Generally speaking, positional players have their best seasons from age 26-29. So I’m not so sure he’s going to just keep getting better and improving, as you suggest.
As for the BoSox and Bill James, you are assuming that what James says controls what they do. I can’t imagine that’s the case. And no one — Bill James or anyone else — can say a player is going to be a productive player 8 years from now, when they are 36.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions
Wow, Tex will finally have people on base for him
He’s never had any type of lineup protection with guys like:
Young (in his best years)
Blalock (in his best years)
Soriano
Renteria
Chipper Jones
Brian McCann
Vlad Guerrero
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
baseball reference
Take a look at the baseball reference pages for Teixeira and MY. Look down at the section above “similar batters”. There are 4 tests to determine if a player is HOF potential. Three were created by Bill James. MY leads Teixeira in all four tests. At this point in his career, Teixeira is nowhere near being a HOF player.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/y/youngmi02.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/teixema01.shtml
Mitch Moreland - Rangers 2009 Minor League Player of the Year
Incidentally
Bill James’ Favorite Toy gives Teixeira a 25% chance of getting 500 homers, and a 8% chance of getting 3000 hits.
Would you agree with me that, if Teixeira falls short of both those milestones, he’s not getting into the Hall?
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2008 1:09 PM CST up reply actions
Have you factored in
the east coast bias if he goes to Boston?
Mitch Moreland - Rangers 2009 Minor League Player of the Year
i would not
if he finishes with 450 homers and 2800 hits or so, continues to play stellar defense, and is consistently healthy then i think he has a real shot. the fact that he will be one of the first great power hitters to emerge near the end of the steroid era and has yet to have any suspicions of PEDs laid upon him only helps his case. you’re right though, its all about his ability to maintain his performance throughout his peak years and for his decline, when it does begin, not to be too steep.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Dec 20, 2008 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
Being a big part
of a couple of winning WS teams — especially in media favorite Boston — would seriously help his chances with the stats you listed.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
He just won't make it
He is going to have a great career, but its not going to be as good as the guys that will retire around the same time as him. You have Pujols, A-Rod, Berkman, Utley, Wright, Cabrera, and Ortiz. Those are just hitters that I think would at least be in the same conversation as Tex if not better. How many hitters do you think will make it from this generation of players?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
mlbtr
They mention the Jays are listening on Wells.
Anyways, he’s not getting traded.
But would you do Young for Wells straight up?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Dec 20, 2008 12:06 PM CST reply actions
nope
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Well
For one his contract is worse than Youngs is and we don’t really have a need for Wells like we do for Young. Young slides over to 3B where we don’t have any top prospects at. What do you do with Wells? With the amount of good young OFs we have near ready to have a veteran who we are forced to play because of his contract would not be productive.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I understand your argument
but I just think that Michael Young does not have the offense needed to be a 3B though. At 2B he would do fine with his offensive numbers. I prefer someone outside the organization through a trade or free agency as our 3B for the future. However, I know we have Andrus and Kinsler so I guess there will be no choice but to put him at 3B. But if it was up to me, I would do this trade since Wells is two years younger, is not on a decline offensively or defensively (unlike Young), is a legitimate gold glover (unlike Young), and is a more productive hitter than Young. Yes we would have many outfielders if we do this trade, but you can always trade the surplus for pitching or a 3B. Personally I would love to have LF Hamilton CF Wells RF Cruz for the future, but I know you think differently since you say that you don’t trust Cruz. But think about it, Wells would be that much needed right-handed bat between Hamilton and Davis in the lineup and this trade would allow us to have a better offensive and defensive 3B than Michael Young in the future. Yes Wells is expensive but so is Young. His contract expires only one year after Young’s and he is two years younger than Young so the length of his contract or his age isn’t really that big of a problem in this case. I do admit that Wells is a lot more injury-prone than Young but that is the only advantage for Young other than a slightly lower yearly salary and one less year remaining on his contract. (Wells has 100 M left in 6 years (16.7 M a yr) while Young has 80 M left in 5 years (16 M a yr)
by coolrangersfan on Dec 21, 2008 2:05 PM CST up reply actions
However, I do know that the Blue Jays would not make this trade
since they want to cut payroll significantly and trading for Michael Young would not accomplish that.
by coolrangersfan on Dec 21, 2008 2:11 PM CST up reply actions
Wells' contract
Look at the way its structured.
Yes if you simply average it out over the remaining time its almost a wash. But When it jumps up in 2010 we would only be saving 3.5 mil that year and then the remaining time we would be losing money. 7 mil in 2011, and 5 mil each in 2012-2014.
Plus the decline of CFers with Wells body build is more pronounced than 3B with Youngs build. Im not worried about Youngs offense at 3B. With all the other offense we will have a sub par offensive 3B is the least of my worries. Wells’ defense in CF probably wouldn’t be a big eough upgrade over Borbons that make this a must do for me. Young will be fine defensively at 3B.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Whose contract is worse?
MY of Vernon Wells?
Vernon Wells OF
7 years/$126M (2008-14)
signed extension with Toronto 12/06
$25.5M signing bonus (paid in 3 $8.5M installments, March 1 2008-10)
08:$0.5M, 09:$1.5M, 10:$12.5M, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M
full no-trade clause
Wells may opt out of contract after 2011
Michael Young inf
5 years/$80M (2009-13)
signed extension with Texas 3/07, with Rangers exercising $5M 2008 club option as part of the deal
09-13:$16M annually (total of $15M deferred)
no-trade protection 2007-09, limited no-trade protection from 2010 to May, 2011 (submits list of 8 clubs to which he’d accept trade), before receiving 10-and-5 rights in May, 2011
Mitch Moreland - Rangers 2009 Minor League Player of the Year
lol even @ the notion
of wells opting out of 3/63 in his mid 30s
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Dec 20, 2008 12:18 PM CST up reply actions
Hey...
At one point, we would have said the same thing about J.D. Drew and A.J. Burnett.
Opt-out clauses are really bad business for teams.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2008 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
MY's is worse
At least Vernon Wells plays gold glove defense at CF and his offensive numbers last year were above average (121 OPS+), especially for his position. MY’s offense is declining (131, 108, 107, 96) and his defense is already below average at SS and getting worse as well. Also, moving MY to 3B would make his numbers below average for that position.
by coolrangersfan on Dec 20, 2008 5:19 PM CST up reply actions
Scouting moves
I know that a couple of those guys are regarded as up and comers, and Krug has been an interesting guy to watch progress through the organization. I think they hired him out of UT. But my question is, what moves necessitated these moves. That is the real story here, and I’m curious where some of those guys went, specifically the East Coast crosschecker and the pro scouts. As far as Avila, it’s nice to be able to associate yourself with the Felix signing, but I don’t know anything about him. Has he been involved with the Mariners more recently? They have made some good signings in Venezuela recently (though more of the big dollar variety than finding sleepers).
by Brett Perryman on Dec 20, 2008 12:19 PM CST reply actions
Doug Harris
Was hired away by CLE. He’d been the EC Crosschecker here; taking a pro scouting job with the Tribe.
by Jamey Newberg on Dec 20, 2008 12:38 PM CST up reply actions
Any word on whether they lost or let go of any pro scouts?
by Brett Perryman on Dec 20, 2008 1:07 PM CST up reply actions
Not sure
Haven’t seen any announcements.
by Jamey Newberg on Dec 20, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions
Any word on whether they lost or let go of any pro scouts?
by Brett Perryman on Dec 20, 2008 3:09 PM CST up reply actions
Anyone in particular you're wondering about?
by Jamey Newberg on Dec 20, 2008 5:33 PM CST up reply actions
Is it usually
standard operating procedure for a team to have such a level of turnover in their scouting department over an offseason or is this simply a case of our guys being really good and getting better opportunities elsewhere?
No
I don’t even know all of the pro scouting staff. I know about the obvious guys, guys who are a part of the leadership team like Preller, Boyd (and until a few weeks ago I didn’t even know they’d hired him) and Didier. But hiring two pro scouts means that something happened, and I’m just curious what.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 20, 2008 6:06 PM CST up reply actions
I kept rereading that
to find out why the spots were open to no avail.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Avila
All I’ve ever seen on Avila has to do with Felix. He was the M’s 2006 international scout of the year according to the M’s web site, but it seems to me that it was because of Felix. All of the other people that I’ve seen as listed as signed by Avila have been underwhelming (Oswaldo Navarro for example). A lot was made of the process of signing Felix and how big the whole courtship procedure was, so I’m wondering if Avila was brought on to court the big-name guys in the Venezuelan market. As much as we’ve been successful on the international scene the last few years, we haven’t signed any of those truly big name guys. If Avila’s skill at courting was responsible for Felix signing with the M’s, then maybe the club thinks he can focus on a couple of big name guys (or a single target) and ink them. Just my perception.
slow news day
Washington will probably bat him 8th. :(
Chris Davis Projections
Most projection systems see big things for Rangers infielder Chris Davis after he smacked 17 home runs in 295 ABs as a rookie. Davis qualifies at first base, and also at third if ten games played cuts it in your league.
Assuming 550 at-bats, here are the projections for Davis:
Bill James: .302-39-115-104-8.
Baseball HQ: .285-36-104-94-3.
CHONE: .265-29-102-89-6.
So we’re looking at something like .284-35-107-99-6 on average. Davis is currently being drafted in the ninth round, 15th among first basemen (behind Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, and James Loney). None of these guys have anything on Davis aside from experience. Here on December 19th he looks like a great sleeper at position 105.25, but we’ll see where that average draft position is in March.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Mitch Moreland - Rangers 2009 Minor League Player of the Year
I think we're paying too much attention to this
He may hit him eighth for a month or something, but by the end of next season that will probably be a humorous anecdote, not something that anyone is still concerned about. A lot of things change quickly in the early part of the regular season.
It is pretty ridiculous, though.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 20, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions
Davis 8th?
I would rather have Murphy 8th instead. I hope Washington is not dumb enough to put one of his best hitters all the way down there even if its just for a month. I would understand having Blalock ahead of Davis at the beginning of the season but not Murphy. Murphy only has 247 more career AB than Davis so there is no reason to justify it.
by coolrangersfan on Dec 20, 2008 5:05 PM CST up reply actions
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