Baseball 101 -- An Ode to Coach Gus

Lately I've been reading a lot about all of the minor league prospects that
the Rangers have been accumulating in their system. It's great fun imagining
how many wins we can amass in the coming decade if a few youthful pitchers can
blossom into dominant starters, abetted by a few hitters and fielders. No need
to mention any names here. However, there is something that has been bothering
me quite a bit. It's this secret that I've been holding. Well, secret isn't the
right word, because I've been trying to let it go, but nobody will listen.
Previously, I've been in the throes of this battle with fans, coaches, and even
one retired major league veteran, and often they won't let me even begin to make
my opening argument before they start a salvo against me.

Every baseball scout, whether professional or amateur, has their own methods of
evaluating the talent held by unripened players. They often talk about the
5 tools: Hit for average, hit for power, run, throw, and defend. Some say
there are 6 or even 7 tools. Others break down skills even further. Trying to
decide how many tools and skills a young baseball player exhibits is largely inequitable. For example, a first baseman really doesn't need a good throwing arm. He won't use it all that often. In the same vein, a catcher doesn't need to run all
that fast, since he isn't required to chase down fly balls or steal bases
with any regularity. What I am mainly concerned about though, is which one of those tools or skills makes the most difference in winning and losing a ball game(s). My answer is probably different than what most talent evaluators would say.

Let me tell you where I stand early on so you can plan your rebuttal as I go. I pride myself in being a critical thinker, and it is expected that the reader should analyze every idea that I will put forth. It's not so easy to lay out though. It will take  some
effort on your part to digest and play with some of the thoughts that will be presented. Certainly, an open mind can be quite helpful when trying to persuade someone to change their belief set. We're not talking religion here, but I know from firsthand experience that this discussion can become fairly emotional.

I believe that good plate discipline is the most important tool that a baseball player can possibly possess. There, I let it out and I feel much better. So that I can convince you to be on my side, I'll use a bit of recent brain research. Scientists have determined that you will learn some things better if you use multiple brain pathways. To use an analogy, if you can see an object from all sides, you'll understand it much better. The same holds true for ideas. Here we go.

For me, it began with my father. He coached several different sports teams when I
was young. Mainly football and basketball because I didn't play much baseball, so his coaching of baseball was limited to church teams. My dad was an extremely competitive man. He did not like to lose. I know what you're thinking, lots of people say that, but you don't know my dad! Ask anyone in my family about him and you're likely to get a few stories of just how outrageous he could be when trying to win. Sports, card games, dominoes, board games, he spared no expense in trying to win. So what does this have to do with the 5 tools? Well, when he told stories of coaching baseball it always involved walks. Furthermore, the story always ended with his team being victorious. For him, walks equaled victory. Now I know that is overly simplistic, and I wouldn't expect to convince anyone with this paragraph alone, but it did implant a type of baseball strategy into my head. Young kids are
impressionable and I was no exception. I am also keenly aware that this type
of evidence consists of an anecdote. Anecdotal evidence is weak, very weak. So
let's use another pathway.

The eureka moment for me in baseball came in 1980, two years out of high school,
at The University of Texas in Austin. The baseball team there had several players
that would go on to enjoy major league success. You've probably heard of Roger
Clemens. Do you remember Calvin Schiraldi or Spike Owen? They all played on that team. It wasn't the players that captured my fascination in the end though, it was the coach. His name is Cliff Gustafson. Coach Gus for short. Suffice it to say,
that I worshipped him. His teams were different than all the other baseball
teams that I had seen before in my life, because all his players had good
plate discipline. Most fans didn't recognize that though. After all, how many
people count pitches from the stands? After watching a full season of games,
I began to notice that several things were happening, events that turned each
contest into a seemingly one-sided affair, each ending with a victory song, and
Hook 'em Horns raised high. I'll discuss the specific things that were happening
later, but I will give you this bit of info to chew on. No college baseball coach
has ever had the run of success as Coach Gus. His all-time winning percentage at Texas is 79.5%. You know, good baseball teams win around 60% of their games. Great teams perhaps 70% of the time. Coach Gus won 4 of every 5 over the span of his career. Wow. Maybe my dad was onto something. Maybe walks really do equal victory. Additionally, in honor of Coach Gus, I feel compelled to say this, a 79.5% winning percentage is not anecdotal evidence. When you win consistently, that goes
beyond luck, it is evidence that something is happening to cause that team
to win. One could justify the wins in different ways of course, better recruits,
home-field advantage, better assistant coaches, and so forth. However, over
time, I came to understand the value of plate discipline from Gus. I will always
be appreciative of that.

Multiple pathway number three. Let's get to the nuts and bolts of the discussion.
The exact ways that plate discipline can aide a team. I'll enumerate them so that
they will be undisguised.

1.  More walks -  This is obvious. A batsman can't draw a base on balls if he
    puts one of the first four pitches in play. Patience by a batter increases his walk
    rate. Walks are one of the more preeminent reasons that a team gains an
    advantage from being patient at the plate. If some of you have played the
    game of baseball before, then you've heard a coach say something like this,
    "Walks are a killer!". Pitchers are generally given more of the credit for
    the walk, not the batter. This is odd because Bill James did some research
    on this, and he found that walks are caused more by the batter than the pitcher.
    Here's what I think he meant by this. A patient hitter is more likely
    to draw a walk off of a pitcher with good control, as opposed to a freeswinging
    hitter receiving a base on balls off of a pitcher who is known to be a bit wild.
    So give more of the credit to the batter. Quit screaming obscenities at the
    pitcher when he walks someone, recognize the batsman for a job well done.
    This is not to say that pitchers don't have different walk rates. They do.

2.  More pitches thrown by the opposing team - This actually is beneficial via
    several different ways. A (possibly dominant) starting pitcher must leave the game
    sooner if he has thrown too many pitches, and in a multiple game series, a
    manager will have difficulty getting a lefty pitcher vs. lefty batter situation
    to emerge if his bullpen is depleted. You may also get the chance to avoid
    facing a club's top reliever more than once in a series if you force him to
    pitch more innings than he usually does during the opening game of the
    matchup. By the way, I hope you're keeping a mental tally of the positive
    effects. I've listed three of the beneficial outcomes resulting from plate
    discipline here in number 2 alone.

When people talk about the greatest baseball player who has ever lived, the conversation usually turns to either Babe Ruth or Ted Williams. Some statistical
analysts say that Ruth had better numbers, but you also must take into
account that Ted's career was interrupted twice because of WWII. My contention
that the reason these two players are considered to be the very best is because each had the two most important tools of baseball, and practiced them to the utmost degree. Those two tools are plate discipline and power.

The greatest single season ever by a major leaguer was most likely in the modern
era. Barry Bonds hit 73 homers in 2001. He also gathered up 177 bases on balls that year to complement his arsenal. He was on base over 51% of the time. Barry also holds the top 3 spots on the list of most walks in a season; 177, 198, and 232. Ruth, Williams and Bonds hold 8 of the top 10 spots on that list. In conclusion, great
players obtain walks at the highest rates. Said another way, you can't have
a monster season unless you have excellent plate discipline. From another
direction, Babe Ruth utilized three tools. He had power, plate discipline,
and a good arm since he was a former pitcher. Williams had hitting for average,
power and plate discipline. In 2001, since Barry was getting relatively old
for a baseball player, he essentially only had two tools. Power and plate
discipline. Really now, what good are the 5 tools, if possessing 2 or 3
can make you the greatest player ever? For that matter, can steroids alone
make you the greatest player that has ever lived? I must apologize for that
last sentence. My keyboard temporarily turned into a ouija board. That was
totally beyond my control, I promise.

3.  More chances for stolen bases - Batters like to get comfortable with their
    lead off of 1st base before they try to steal 2nd. They study the pitcher's
    move to the plate too. They get extremely confident when they know that
    beating the pickoff throw back to the bag is easily accomplished. More pitches
    equals more stolen bases. I won't venture a guess as to whether or not the
    stolen base percentage gets higher if the runner attempts to steal the base
    after 6 or 7 pitches to the batter, instead of after 1 or 2, but some game analysts
    have mentioned that catchers call for more fastballs when a fast runner is on
    the 1st base bag. They do this since they think it will increase their odds
    of throwing out the base stealer. Additionally they suggest that more fastballs
    from the pitcher is an advantage to the batter. To finalize this paragraph, let's
    state one obvious fact; a runner absolutely cannot steal a base if the batter
    puts the very first pitch into play. And don't forget this, the chances of a double-play
    ball will go down after a batter steals a base. Every little bit helps.

4.  More wild pitches - These have a relatively minor effect on most games, but
    if you've seen enough baseball games, then you'll be able to recall when one
    of these mishaps has been the factor that changed one team's outcome from
    a loss to a win. Perhaps once or twice a year or so if you're lucky, but a win is
    a win after all.

5.  More passed balls - Relatively minor again like the previous one. Maybe once
    or twice over the course of a full season, but those victories are not any
    less sweet.

Gerald Laird was traded this year for a couple of low level, minor league
pitchers. How can an experienced, young, starting catcher, said to have all 5
tools, with a modest contract, have such a puny trade value? The answer is surely
plate discipline. What else could it be? While some people would say that
the main objective for a hitter is to get a hit, sabrematricians have opined
that the basic goal for the batter should be simply to not make an out.
If you're not making a bunch of outs in your times at bat, then it follows that
you are getting your share of walks. Gerald was making too many outs. His power
numbers aren't that bad for a catcher, but I always felt that he was never
destined for big homerun numbers, because he doesn't have an uppercut
stroke. So he is missing the two most important tools, power and patience. Just
to be fair, an astute observer would mention that his contact rate is low. Mercy,
I think I've convinced myself that he is nowhere near a 5 tool player, even without
plate discipline. On the bright side, both Teagarden and Salty will most
likely be above average in skills relating to patience. Come to think of it,
Maximiliano also!

6.  More balks - There are two different positive effects that are nearly
    inconsequential. One would be the balks, the other is more pickoff throws
    are attempted by the man on the mound when more runners reach first base.
    I don't think each of these cases deserves to listed on their own merit,
    but to be perfectly frank, I have seen games decided by both of them.

7.  More errors - This one can always generate a few heated exchanges between
    combatants, but it is an established effect. Nolan Ryan is a good example
    here. Nolan threw lots of balls because his control was a little on the
    wild side. Nolan threw lots of strikes because batters missed
    his pitches quite often. So, overall he had a high number of pitches per
    inning. Unfortunately, the fielders who played behind him had to suffer
    through some long half innings. Common sense will tell you that their
    concentration wandered a bit more than the norm. More errors. You can look
    it up. While you're at it, look up his winning percentage. 52.6% is not that
    great considering that he holds so many major league records. Walks caused
    him a great deal of trouble, in more ways than one. Just to be mean,
    I'll venture a guess that Robin Ventura wished he could have added one
    more walk against Nolan.

8.  A higher batting average - Ted Williams promoted this theory loud and proud.
    The Splendid Splinter practiced what he preached too. He was, after all, the
    last man to hit .400+ for an entire season. It boils down to this idea: It's
    easier to hit a pitch that is down the middle of the plate. Patient hitters
    are rewarded with a better selection of pitches to hit because they see more
    of them. They discard the bad ones and mash the good ones. On a personal
    note, let me tell you about one of the grandest moments that I have ever
    experienced. A decade or so ago, I got the chance to travel to Cooperstown,
    New York to visit The National Baseball Hall of Fame. The most prominent
    2nd floor exhibit was a display of different colored baseballs, stacked
    11 high and 7 wide. These closely packed 77 balls represented the hitting
    zone for a typical batter. On each ball was a number. Smaller numbers
    towards the rim and higher numbers towards the center. The number in the
    exact center was .400. I knew instantly where this display originated from.
    It came from Ted Williams book "The Science of Hitting". It was Ted's way
    of saying that if you had exceptional talent and had excellent pitch
    recognition skills, then maybe you could hit .400 too. Of course, I've
    had many people argue against this point, but how many times have you heard
    major league pitchers say that all they were trying to accomplish was to
    make the batter hit their pitch? Or look at it another way, haven't you
    noticed that most strikeouts occur when a batter swings at a pitch outside
    the strike zone? The farther away from the heart of the strike zone, the
    harder that pitch is to hit. It's even possible to observe this phenomenon
    during batting practice.

9.  Increased power - This idea works closely in tandem with number 8. Hitters
    do have a power zone. They can put more muscle into swinging at pitches that
    are centered over the middle of the dish. Conversely, you lose miles per hour
    in bat speed when you have to reach for a pitch. There's another effect going
    on here also. If a pitch is outside your power zone, then
    you will not be likely to hit the ball on the wooden bat node. So it's
    a double whammy if you don't practice good plate discipline, less mph and
    fewer sweet spot hits. Announcers have a tendency to make this statement
    after a batter hits a homerun, "That was a mistake pitch", or they'll say,
    "It caught too much of the plate". I tend to cringe a bit when they mention
    one of those phrases or something similar. Don't they realize that pitching
    to major league hitters isn't easy? There is no such thing as a pitcher
    with perfect control. We all make mistakes. However, that is an excellent
    reason to be a patient hitter. Wait around for the mistake pitch. You'll
    hit for a higher average and you'll drive more balls up the gap.


There are two general things that can be said to happen when a team exhibits
good plate discipline, more baserunners and more runner advancement, each
using a variety of different scenarios. All of which will lead to more runs
scored and more wins. If you're still not convinced of the fiendishness of it
all, then you probably still don't see the value of numbers 8 and 9 above.
Don't run away if I haven't converted you, I'm not giving up the ship yet.

10. Quicker release point recognition - I have heard several times that a
    batter has only one-tenth of a second to decide if he is going to swing
    at a pitch, once it leaves pitcher's hand. It stands to reason that a batter
    can knock off perhaps a few thousandths of a second, on pitch recognition,
    if he can observe a pitcher's release point multiple times. Some batters
    will come back to the dugout and tell their teammates where to look for
    that release point. It may be behind the ear, off the shoulder, over the
    bill of the cap, or even a landmark in centerfield. I think you would agree
    that every little bit helps when you have to react so fast.

11. Better recognition of a pitched ball's path - Pitchers are clever. They
    can make a ball do just about anything. Move up, move down, move left,
    move right, come in fast, come in slow, or move all over the place like
    a knuckleball. Major league hitters, being the best in the world at what
    they do, are just as proficient though. They have good enough reactions
    to counter nearly anything a pitcher serves up to them. Especially so
    when they get the chance to see the complete repertoire of the pitcher
    before they actually have to hit the ball. Ranger fans should think of
    Kameron Loe, of course. His sinker had a huge sinking action, but his
    breaking ball was pedestrian. We all know that Kam was an effective
    pitcher going through an opposing team's lineup for the first time. Then,
    after the hitters were able to make the adjustment on the two-seamer,
    he wasn't so potent. He always wanted to start, but his destiny was
    in the bullpen for obvious reasons. Good luck in Japan Kam. You're a
    classy guy.

How can Billy Beane, the general manager of the Oakland Athletics, field a
competitive team almost every year on a low budget? If you read "Moneyball",
I think you already know the answer. Billy believed that plate discipline
skills were underrated by most general managers, and even succumbed to
paying an extra bonus check to his minor league players who walked at a rate
over 10%, in an effort to obtain more value from them. Unfortunately for
Oakland though, this past year the Rangers surpassed the A's walk rate, and
we finished with a better record. That hasn't happened in quite some time.

12. More hit by pitches - Nearly forgot this one. This entry and number 3
    are the only ones that could result in a negative outcome. More stolen base
    chances may lead to more instances of getting thrown out stealing. Getting
    hit by a 90+ mph heater can result in an injury. Still, overall, I believe taking
    one for the team is generally helpful.

13. Pitchers are required to throw more from the stretch position -- A pitcher
    must work out of the stretch position most of the time if a runner is on base.
    This has a negative effect on some hurlers, but not all. It can sap a little
    power out of their pitching motion when they don't lift the lead leg up as
    high, so that they can cut down the time it takes to get the ball to the plate.
    Some pitchers even get in too big of a hurry to get the ball home, so that
    the runner won't have time to steal, and lose a bit of control in the process.
    I'm sure you have heard some TV analysts say that the pitcher
    was paying too much attention to the baserunner, instead of putting their
    focus on more important things.

One could make the argument that the Yankees are the one team, more than any
other in any professional sport, who deserve the word dynasty attached to their
legacy. I believe one of the major reasons why, deals with their organizational
philosophy towards walks. They have historically valued players with patience
more than other teams. It is certainly not the only reason that they have
accumulated so many world titles, but you can't ignore it either. Lately, the
Boston Red Sox have learned to value players with high on-base totals too. They
have even hired the sabrematrician, Bill James as a consultant. Perhaps this is
why they have recently broke their long world series drought with a couple of
world championships. On the flip side of that creed, I can't ever remember when
the Rangers valued that type of player, except for Billy Martin's time in
Arlington. We only finished 5 games back of the mighty World Champion A's in
1974, even though we were a young franchise, mainly due to players like Mike
Hargrove and Toby Harrah, both of whom showed outstanding strike zone
judgement. Perhaps I should add Ron Washington's name to that list of Rangers
who value patience. I remember him saying that one of his wishes last year was
to add a leadoff hitter like Ricky Henderson to the lineup. Some people viewed
that as put down to Ian Kinsler. Not me. I believe during his time in Oakland,
Washington came to put faith in Billy Beane and the plate discipline skills
of the A's players. Any team could use a player like Ricky Henderson. I might
rank him as the third greatest player ever behind Ruth and Williams. One more
thing, if Ron Washington is not responsible for increasing the number of walks
by Ranger batsmen, then who deserves the majority of the credit?


14. Players who exhibit good plate discipline have longer careers and
    are more valuable to their team (or have better trade value) than other players -
    OK, like Chris Davis said, "I got nothing". I'll admit that I don't have proof
    of this one. I simply like to start arguments just for fun sometimes.
 
If you've stayed with me this long, I hope that I have furnished you with a
few tools to see a baseball game differently now. Oops, did I say tools?
That is where this argument started, with 5, 6, or 7 tools.  Which do you
believe. At the very least, you must admit that counting things like baseball
skills is an inexact science at best. Let me demonstrate that point with
a tale you've heard at least a hundred times. How many senses does a human
being possess? Five, right? Taste, touch, hearing, sight and smell. Well, even
though you've heard that many times, it's wrong, dead wrong. You need to add
pressure, temperature, pain, balance and motion to the list. That adds up to ten.
So don't believe everything you hear. .

Finally, my argument doesn't rest on any one of points listed above. It's the sum.
The totality of it all. It's the synergy of the system that's beautiful.
That's why Coach Gus was able to win about 80% of his games. If I still haven't
convinced you of the importance of good strike zone judgement, then it will
probably never happen. Even if I haven't changed your outlook, I do think you
can envision a few reasons why some prospects are viewed as being more
valuable than others if they have a good K/BB rate. While a player like
Engel Beltre or Cristian Santana may make an appearance in the major leagues at
some point, I don't think they will be doing as many of the things that
win ballgames as a Marcus Lemon or Johnny Whittleman type of player. Some
scouts have mentioned that a player can alter his plate discipline
skills for the better if given enough time. That may be true, but hitters
rarely make a radical change in their strike zone judgement abilities.
Pitchers, similar to hitters, don't often change their K/BB rates much either,
unless it's a natural occurrence of facing a higher level of competition,
caused by jumping up a level or two of the minor league system.

I love ya Gus and,
Merry Christmas to All

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