T.R. Sullivan and the HOF ballot
T.R. Sullivan runs down the HOF ballot and talks about who he's voting for and who he isn't...
Once again, he's voting for Jack Morris and not Bert Blyleven.
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66 comments
Comments
a small litmus test
if you personally go back and forth on whether or not a guy is a HOFer, then he probably ain’t. or at least you probably shouldn’t think so.
i agree with sulli that raines is a HOFer, but like most here disagree about blylevin NOT being one.
Obama vs Palin in 2012. bring her on!
by gossamer on Dec 4, 2008 12:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Going Back and Forth
Count me in the camp that says if a guy isn’t a first ballot HOFer then he isn’t a HOFer. I don’t think the guy’s stats get any better 10 years after he played then they were 5 years after he played.
Fire Ron Washington
by pblack on Dec 4, 2008 1:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that.
Unless the only reason he missed out was because the ballot was too large.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This old thing again.
"Yeah, like I had a chance there" - Lancaster batter, after striking out against Derek Holland
by chrisR on Dec 4, 2008 12:59 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Heh
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on Dec 4, 2008 9:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What boggles my mind is
he says at the bottom that baseball-reference.com is the final word, but apparently ignores Blyleven’s career ERA, WHIP, innings pitched, strikeouts, and walks.
Reading that made me realize how much I despise wins, losses, runs, and RBI. I’d sorta forgotten.
by jwiscarson on Dec 4, 2008 12:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yep
I’ve generally respected T.R.‘s work throughout the years, but it’s hard for me to defend any baseball writer who would put Morris in the HOF, and leave Blyleven out. It’s one of those things that seriously makes me question the qualifications of said writer to be covering baseball for a living.
Blyleven was a better pitcher than Morris by pretty much any objective criteria, and it’s not particularly close.
Henderson, Raines, McGwire, Blyleven, and Trammell- that would be my ballot if I had one. I might add Lee Smith, but I’d have to think on that one.
The one guy I don’t want to see get in: Harold Baines.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
by RCCook on Dec 4, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Your ballot is pretty close to mine.
Those five would definitely be on, and probably Smith. I could go with Tommy John, as well, and probably would vote for him if I were in the BBWAA.
I’m also close on Dale Murphy.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My votes
Henderson – Obvious
McGwire – I’d vote for Bonds and Sosa too…
Blyleven – I can understand the ‘no’ argument, I just don’t agree
Smith – His 20 minute walk from the bullpen alone merits HOF consideration
Raines – I always forget how good he was, and then I look at his numbers.
Big no on Jim Rice.
by JBImaknee on Dec 4, 2008 1:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Jim Rice
If he played in Texas or Kansas City or Milwaukee this isn’t even a conversation.
Fire Ron Washington
by pblack on Dec 4, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
For sure
Rice’s #s are pretty average
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
by trident on Dec 4, 2008 3:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Evan Grant
should write a column why Jim Rice shouldn’t even sniff the Hall.
Nolan Ryan is the Greatest Pitcher ever, because Google says so.
"BTW I’m officially welching ab03. Yeah I planned too all along, but I figured I’d try to get off the hook with double or nothing first."- Sharky
by DJCahill on Dec 4, 2008 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Henderson, McGwire, Blyleven, Raines...
…and that’s it.
I want to support Morris, Trammell and Dawson because they were favorites of mine growing up, but when I take a hard look at each of them they come up short.
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
by Chad Crudup on Dec 4, 2008 2:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
He's close but...
…just doesn’t get over the top for me. I tend towards a smaller HOF so sometimes some players who others like I don’t.
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
by Chad Crudup on Dec 4, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Adam,
If you had a ballot, what would it look like?
by fds on Dec 4, 2008 2:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
And I extend that question
to Z, JPark, and Spur
by fds on Dec 4, 2008 2:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Spur
as far as I know, none of these guys have played in A ball in the last 3 years — not sure what he’d be able to tell ya :)
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 4, 2008 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That article made my head hurt.
But at least he’s voting for Raines and supports the Santo camp.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 2:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'd go Henderson and McGwire and call it a day.
I’m a small hall guy. I think it should be the hall of truly great, not the hall of very good. I don’t wanna go visit Cooperstown one day with my son and have to explain to him why Babe Ruth is next to Jim Fucking Rice or Mickey mantle is next to Mike Fucking Mussina.
Henderson is a no doubt about it lock. One of the special players.
The only reason McGwire isn’t a lock is the steroids, but even in era where tons of power hitters were juicng he stood out. Way out. 70 home runs out. The hall wouldn’t be complete without a record of this man and his accomplishments, imo. So he gets in.
After that I see a lot of really, really good players, but no one I consider true greatness.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 4, 2008 2:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
You have McGwire over Raines?
That’s a little surprising. I think. I might be wrong.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Raines was really good.
.385 career OBP leadoff hitters don’t grow on trees.
I just don’t consider him greatness.
But I’m a small hall guy.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 4, 2008 5:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But I'm trying to understand why Raines doesn't fit that criteria.
I mean, you’re talking about a TINY hall. Like a, what. . . 80-100 person hall or so?! And I’m not sure McGwire is necessarily in that.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 6:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also:
What is truly great? I see at least two, probably three, players who I — and most opinions I’ve come to largely respect — have in the top 100 all-time. I would consider that truly great, but that might be a subjective term.
I also don’t have Trammell or Blyleven too far from that level.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Truly great: Would the Hall feel incomplete without him?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 4, 2008 5:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
By me, on a case-to-case basis, of course ;)
But, seriously. How do you determine who you’d vote for? You take in all the information you can and then make the call about whether that player is hall worthy or not based on whatever it is that you personally feel hall worthy means.
I’m a small hall guy. I don’t want a bunch of good players in the hall. I think it should be reserved for the true greats. Like I said, the idea of Ruth next to Jim Rice is a travesty. Ruth next to Henderson or McGwire I can understand.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 4, 2008 7:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And that's what's confusing me.
I just don’t understand why Raines isn’t in that standard.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 7:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Personally, its real tough
to put in anyone I can’t say “He was the best player in the game for these years …”. I don’t think there was a single year that Rock Raines was the best player. The only real “Counting Numbers” bullet for him is 5th place in all time steals.
Damn good player though.
Nolan Ryan is the Greatest Pitcher ever, because Google says so.
"BTW I’m officially welching ab03. Yeah I planned too all along, but I figured I’d try to get off the hook with double or nothing first."- Sharky
by DJCahill on Dec 5, 2008 8:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But if someone is never the best but has a career that's still really great?
As in top 100 with room to spare all-time great?
Hank Aaron wasn’t the best player in baseball very often. Does that really matter so much?
Hell, Baseball Prospectus made the argument that Carl Yaztrzemski and Rickey Henderson were never the best players in baseball at any point (though it was not specific to a single season but rather weighting that season and the surrounding seasons).
by philkid3 on Dec 5, 2008 1:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
McGwire
was FAR from a great baseball player. He was a decent baseball player with great power and a good eye and people were scared to throw it over the plate b/c he was juiced out of his mind and could hit the ball a half mile. He may deserve the hall, but he was closer to very good that great
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
by trident on Dec 4, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I strongly disagree that McGwire was far from great.
I do believe he was behind Raines and Henderson, though. Probably by a decent margin.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 3:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He had two tremendous skills...
…getting on base and hitting home runs. The fact that those are SOOOOOOO important to producing runs and that he was SOOOOOO far above average at doing them makes him a no-brainer HOFer.
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
by Chad Crudup on Dec 4, 2008 3:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
I don’t understand why people say guys like McGwire only did one or two things well and that’s why they aren’t good. The few things he did great are the most important parts of being a great player.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Dec 4, 2008 5:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
McGwire posted an OPS of 1.100 or above 6 times, a career OBP of .394, a career slugging percentage of .588, hit 70 home runs in a season and hit 583 home runs in his career.
I have him as great. Even in the steroid era an 1.1 ops is something great, imo.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 4, 2008 5:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I still don't understand why McGwire is great but Raines isn't.
Raines played in a less friendly offensive era than McGwire and put up on OBP just 9 points worse (.385). And that’s missing far fewer per season (he didn’g have Mac’s injury problems) and playing beyond 600 more games above McGwire.
He played a slightly more valuable position, and good defense at that position (not elite, but good). What he did to make up for some of the lack in slugging was ridiculous, though: he stole 808 bases at an 84% rate. He was one of the absolute greatest run producers on the basepaths ever (and BtB pointed that out a couple weeks ago) and that ability to steal bases like that dramatically added to his offense in ways that his slugging doesn’t pick up. His OPS+ at his peak was already really good, when you take on the base running he was a top, top, top offensive performer.
By Bill James’s objective rankings (weighted Win Shares, as of 2005), Raines was 35th all-time. Among all players. McGwire was actually pretty close (38th). Raines was also 6th among Left Fielders. I have them both a bit lower than that, but still well within the top 100. The last time I did a ranking project I believe I had Raines around top 70 and McGwire around top 90. And as far as Raines, I actually have him lower usually than most of the really bright minds at places like Baseball Fever.
By WARP3 he has McGwire beat 131.1 to 109.8. He has McGwire beat in their best three seasons 33.8 to 32.0. His best year was better than Big Mac’s and his second best year was almost as good as Mac’s best year. He has McGwire beat in 5 year peak 53.5 to 47.6.
Raines has a JAWS score of 96.1. The average Hall of Famer is at 91.3. McGwire has an 88.1
This doesn’t necessarily paint a huge difference, but I really cannot see how McGwire is a Hall of Famer but Raines isn’t. I can’t see how either isn’t, frankly, but especially not Mac over Rock.
There’s a reason why some of the smartest baseball people you’ll ever find already consider Raines arguably the most glaring omission from the Hall. He really absolutely should be in by any standard that has been set.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 6:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, you convinced me to take another look at Raines.
He was already a very, very good in my book. Maybe he was great. He was always one of those sneaky players. He took walks and stole bases, but did it in an era where Rickey Henderson took more walks and stole more bases.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 4, 2008 7:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
One of the guys at my blog (link in sig) made the point. . .
. . . that Henderson probably is going to screw up Raines chances at least this year and maybe forever. He was absolutely no Rickey Henderson.
But the more I’ve started to know about baseball, the more I’ve realized Henderson was really, really, really great.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 7:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah it's got to bug you
when every broke-ass prospect with leadoff potential gets comped to him in low A.
This is an exciting time in my life.
The LSB CPP's are in full bloom.
by Chase Irwin on Dec 4, 2008 10:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This almost sounds like you're saying
Lou Gehrig doesn’t deserve to be in the hall because Babe Ruth took more walks and hit more home runs.
by jwiscarson on Dec 4, 2008 10:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that's obviously not what I'm saying at all, so don't be dumb.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 5, 2008 7:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just saying that your justification came across in an ambiguous way
since you compared him to one of the most iconic players in baseball history.
by jwiscarson on Dec 5, 2008 9:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
is always my attitude about the HOF. Blyleven deserves to be in, but I’m not going to get all worked up about it.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Dec 4, 2008 2:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
His "criteria" REALLY bugged me:
I prefer that a player’s Hall of Fame credentials be spelled out in three sentences or less. Guys who need a full page to have their credentials explained lose me.
WTF does that even mean?! Why?!
I like 20-win seasons and Cy Young Awards. I prefer guys who win games.
I do not understand how hard it is for someone to grasp the uselessness of wins and the stupidity in caring about them. I cared about Wins and Losses for pitchers for about the first 30 seconds that I was a real baseball fan, and that’s when I was about 12. I have never in my life understood the fascination with them. I would think a five year old could understand they don’t really tell you anything about the pitcher.
I like Gold Gloves. I know the Gold Glove Award can be suspect at times but I like players who were outstanding on both offense and defense.
What the hell?! He acknowledges that GGs can be suspect “at times,” but then doesn’t actually give the case for why that doesn’t matter after the “but.” He’s making two completely different and unrelated points in the same sentence.
I know my Taco Bell taco may have hantavirus, but I really like chicken fingers.
I like the No. 100. As in 100 runs scored and/or 100 RBI. Look, you have to have some kind of cutoff point. 90 is good too. So is 18 wins. But I like 20 wins and the No. 100.
So he boldly admits to not only liking worthless stats, but being fucking arbitrary as hell.
This is a human wasteland of fail.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 2:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
If anyone's interested in a really fun exercise emulating the Hall of Fame process:
You should check out Baseball Fever’s Progressive Hall of Fame.
It started in 1900 and has been going year by year (each week is a year) through history following pretty much the same format as the Hall. Right now we’re on 1929, and any player so we’re voting on any players who retired between 1909 and 1924. It’s interesting to go through the process of creating a standard, investigating players, listening to arguments, making arguments and (in some years) trying to decide who fits on your ballot and who doesn’t.
Baseball Fever is an excellent site, anyway. Highly recommended.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 2:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
There's also even a Veteran's Committee.
Which I currently serve on.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 2:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Geek
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Dec 4, 2008 2:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
'cause, you know
I’m so cool.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Dec 4, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's my 1929 ballot, btw:
Chief Bender
Bill Bradley
Frank Chance
Art Fletcher
Addie Joss
Tommy Leach
Jimmy Sheckard
Joe Tinker
I’m actually not sure on Art Fletcher yet, but the thing is, I think he has a case. Usually I only vote on a player when I’m positive, but, in Fletcher’s case, he’s having trouble gaining enough support to even stay on the ballot. So I’m voting for him to help keep him around in case I ever do decide I’m positive.
Joss I hadn’t voted for yet, but he’s in his last year of eligibility and has several times been one vote from induction. I don’t want to be the person to stand in his way.
by philkid3 on Dec 4, 2008 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Morris seems like one of those guys
who gets alot of love from the voters due to one game, although that was one hell of a game
In reference to how good the Steelers have been in their history: "No one is even close to them."- Steal Home
by hinduplaya on Dec 4, 2008 3:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I wonder, really,
Why the annual tradition of each writer posting this exact same column. I understand the transparency angle, but given the asinine justifications* and cutoffs that get out every year, I’d prefer some mystery.
- Woody Paige’s go beyond asinine. Didn’t he vote for a guy last year because the guy was polite?
by Keynes on Dec 4, 2008 3:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
similariity scores
If you accept that badeballreference.com is the final work you might think that he could slide down to the list of 10 most similar players and find that eight of the ten most similar to Blyleven are in the hall of fame, and that the only two of the 10 most similar to Blyleven not on the list (Kaat and John) have fewer hall of famers on their respective lists. Not saying that should be totally determinative but if you are going to study that site this seems like pretty strong evidence that you really ought to be looking for arguments to keep Blyleven out rather than to put him in given that substantially all similar players are themselves in.
by Dalman on Dec 4, 2008 3:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
ricky henerson thinks that ricky henderson deserves to be in the HOF
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on Dec 4, 2008 4:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Sigh...
HOF ballot time. Yet something else that makes me miss FJM’s work.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on Dec 4, 2008 10:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Bert Blyleven Theory...
Does anyone other than me think that Bert Blyleven’s name works against him? I mean, when people talk about the Hall of Fame, there is a fame component involved, and someone with a name like “Jack Morris” might feel more like a friend to a voter. A certain name, or a good nickname seems to stick with you. When you’re thinking great players of the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s, don’t Reggie “Mr. October” Jackson, Mickey “The Mick” Mantle, and Stan “The Man” Musial come to you a little quicker then Harmon Killebrew?
Beyond that, I really can’t agree with T.R. Sullivan’s rationale here for excluding Blyleven. Nobody who’s eligible to be in the Hall of Fame with more strikeouts than Blyleven isn’t in. And to my knowledge, the only players who’ve been eligible for the Hall of Fame who aren’t in and have more wins than Blyleven’s 287 are Bobby Matthews (297) and Tommy John (288).
Suicide is a permanent solution to a temporary problem, huh? Didn't you just say that suicide doesn't solve anybody's problems?
by YourNameHere on Dec 4, 2008 10:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry, but...
Mr. Sullivan, I submit, with ALL due respect to you as a fellow human being and (I have no doubt) a very nice guy, that in this case you simply have no idea what you’re talking about.
I’m sorry but you don’t seem to understand much of anything about measurement, and even if one isn’t a statistician or cybermetrician, the bottom line is that measurement is what HOF voting is all about.
Career Wins, 20-Win Seasons: those are arbitrary numbers that also happen to depend heavily on many factors that are beyond the player’s control.
Number of Cy Young Awards and Gold Glove Awards: those depend on the voting of others, and it has been demonstrated, time and time again, with hard facts, that an unsettling percentage of said voters are not even close to being sufficiently knowledgeable or qualified to make those determinations.
Again, I’m sorry, but you really should do the HOF and the entire sport of baseball a favor and recuse yourself from the voting process. It’s the right thing to do. Thank you.
by BobbyCarly on Dec 5, 2008 11:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
+1, especially on this part:
Mr. Sullivan, I submit, with ALL due respect to you as a fellow human being and (I have no doubt) a very nice guy, that in this case you simply have no idea what you’re talking about.
These might be the most accurate description of TR Sullivan I’ve seen all year. I don’t know exactly what happened, but it seems that since the Sammy Sosa thing at the end of last year (calling him the Rangers MVP for 2007) it’s like a switch flipped: we’ve lost TR the writer and now have TR the old fart. It’s too bad, really.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on Dec 5, 2008 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry, but... (continued)
Sorry folks. Quick correction: I meant, in my post, above, to write sabermetrician, not cybermetrician…Bobby
by BobbyCarly on Dec 5, 2008 11:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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