LSB Community Prospect Project: #18
by thedirkatron
on Dec 5, 2008 7:27 AM CST
150 comments
Another epic battle. Nice.
At the time I called it it was:
Diamond:26
Ross 37
Hunter: 41
Poveda: 49
and, finally...
Wilmer Font: 51
So, after 239 votes, Wilmer Font has won the right to be called the LSB Community #17 prospect!.
The list so far:
1. LHP, Derek Holland.
2. RHP, Neftali Feliz
3. 1b, Justin Smoak
4. RHP, Michael Main
5. SS, Elvis Andrus
6. C, Taylor Teagarden
7. C, Maximiliano Ramirez
8. LHP, Martin Perez
9. OF, Julio Borbon
10. RHP, Eric Hurley
11. OF, Engel Beltre
12. RHP, Blake Beavan
13. RHP, Wilfredo Boscan
14. RHP, Neil Ramirez
15. LHP, Kasey Kiker
16. 2b, Jose Vallejo
17. RHP, Wilmer Font
Time to move on to the vote for #18.
The last two votes have been decided by 3 votes and 2 votes, respectively, so make sure you're checking in everyday to vote.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
NOTE: There has been some speculation as to what the criteria are for this vote. Should guys who have spent time in the bigs be involved in "prospect" discussions? For the sake of this exercise we're taking what the guys have done in the big leagues and using the BA prospect formula of 130 AB's or 50 ip. If a guy is under those limits, he's still a prospect and he goes on the poll. It's that simple.
Resources:
- MJH's prospect previews for the DMN Blog:
- 11 Weeks of FFG (Prelude to Prospects Lists below)
- RH Starters 1-5
- RH Starters 6-10
- RH Starters 11-15
- LH Starters 1-5
- LH Starters 6-10
- Relievers 1-5
- Catchers
- Outfielders
Jason Parks and Joey Matschulat's Top 25 list from their excellent Rangers' site, BBTiA.com.
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Hard Times in the Land of Plenty
I went with Poveda again.
Don't believe the hype about sloppy seconds. They ain't bad.
by tricer on
Dec 5, 2008 7:30 AM CST
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Poveda again.
Please win so I can stop voting for you, Omar.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on
Dec 5, 2008 7:30 AM CST
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Thomas Diamond.
I’m gonna be voting for him for a long while it would seem.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on
Dec 5, 2008 7:34 AM CST
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not as long
As me voting for Lemon.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
by trza on
Dec 5, 2008 4:07 PM CST
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Okay.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on
Dec 5, 2008 8:10 AM CST
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Whittleman and west
before strop and ocampo?
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 8:18 AM CST
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I just put on who people ask for.
If you want to vote for someone, just let me know.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on
Dec 5, 2008 10:34 AM CST
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Would you mind
adding Strop and O’campo then?
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 10:37 AM CST
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Sure thing.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on
Dec 5, 2008 10:37 AM CST
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Zach Phillips.
I don’t know how Beau Jones made the list before Phillips.
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. 45 given up in the 1st quarter. Wow. But still we're better than Washington! Oh and, SUCK IT WESTERN KENTUCKY! 1-10 baby!
by sprite on
Dec 5, 2008 1:59 PM CST
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I can give you about 3 years of reasons...
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 4:11 PM CST
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Ok.
Why is Jones>Phillips?
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. 45 given up in the 1st quarter. Wow. But still we're better than Washington! Oh and, SUCK IT WESTERN KENTUCKY! 1-10 baby!
by sprite on
Dec 5, 2008 5:23 PM CST
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Phillips has less upside
Jones could become a useful setup type.
This is an exciting time in my life.
The LSB CPP's are in full bloom.
by Chase Irwin on
Dec 5, 2008 6:40 PM CST
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This one's easy
Lets see, they are the exact same age which makes the comparisons easier. Start off with initial potential. Jones was a first round draft pick (41st overall) while Phillips was a 23rd round draft pick (681st overall). Jones finished the year in Frisco while Phillips was struggling mightily in Bakersfield. Jones has multiple stints of success throughout his pro career while Phillips is mainly working off a good rookie league campaign and a good year in Clinton (his second full season in the league). Jones has a clear path as a good lefty in the bullpen. Phillips has a clear path to being a fringe starter at best.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on
Dec 5, 2008 7:05 PM CST
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Phillips
was pretty good at the end of the year. Oh well, looks like I’m all by my lonesome with the Phillips optimism.
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. 45 given up in the 1st quarter. Wow. But still we're better than Washington! Oh and, SUCK IT WESTERN KENTUCKY! 1-10 baby!
by sprite on
Dec 5, 2008 7:20 PM CST
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Phillips really disappointed
this year. I was hoping to see him build on his success last season but now it looks like he is more in line with guys like Schlact. The type of pitcher you want to root for but just can’t honestly see a future for him in the Majors.
And btw, does anyone have a scouting report for Jared Hyatt. 24 year old, 2007 draftee who reached AAA last season. Kind of like the poor man’s Tommy Hunter. I know next to nothing about what he throws though.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on
Dec 5, 2008 8:58 PM CST
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MJH
Might’ve had a blurb about him on his old blog last offseason I think. I’ll go try and find it.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on
Dec 5, 2008 9:02 PM CST
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...or maybe I was just mistaken.
Looks like it.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on
Dec 5, 2008 9:08 PM CST
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I'd classify him as a command guy.
He can work the strike zone, and I definitely think he’s underrated.
MJH posted a comment from Adair that referred to Hyatt as an under-the-radar guy that had really impressed him.
He’s 88-92, but mostly the lower-end of that. He’s got a change up, and I honestly can’t recall if he throws a slider or curve or both. He’s got good command and solid control. He profiles as a 4/5 and has a decent chance of getting there.
He shouldn’t be left off of prospect lists, but he’s definitely a guy that gets overlooked big time in this crazy system.
Neftali Feliz is not a swimmer.
by NoNameOnCard on
Dec 5, 2008 9:11 PM CST
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Here it is.
MJH: I know you don’t like to single out players, but can you name me the guy who you felt made the most progress this year that we haven’t talked about already?
Adair: Nobody talks enough about Jared Hyatt. This is a guy who had tremedous success at three levels. A big part of us winning. A true professional. A special young man. Pitching coaches all sort of say the same thing: you like to have one day a week when all you have to do is sit back and watch a game. You don’t have to do anything. Jared Hyatt is that guy for all of them. He’s just a complete pleasure to have in the organization and someone that’s going to be part of a winning organization.
Neftali Feliz is not a swimmer.
by NoNameOnCard on
Dec 5, 2008 9:12 PM CST
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thanks for the info
and thanks for trying LSJ :D.
I’m rooting for Hyatt as my 2009 breakout player. I remember looking at some of his games this past season and constantly forgetting that I was looking at a guy who is in his first full season in the minors and was pitching well in Frisco.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on
Dec 5, 2008 11:59 PM CST
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I'd classify him as a relief pitcher
in general but especially in this system loaded with prospects.
by Goyogringo on
Dec 6, 2008 2:26 AM CST
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Revelations:
“I give unto the the 7th sign of the apocalypse, whereby the appearance of Whittleman and West on the LSB top 30 list is the harbinger of death and pestilence.”
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 8:23 AM CST
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Goldstein
Is that coming up soon? Looking forward…
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on
Dec 5, 2008 8:25 AM CST
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opie change
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on
Dec 5, 2008 7:41 AM CST
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Jon Daniels trade history spreadsheet
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on
Dec 5, 2008 7:46 AM CST
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Robbie Ross
until he gets on the list….
by Michael Cave on
Dec 5, 2008 7:53 AM CST
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Ross
then diamond right after.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on
Dec 5, 2008 7:57 AM CST
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poveda
then hunter, wieland, ocampo, ross, diamond, strop, madrigal…its lonely being a position propsect in our top 30!
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 8:02 AM CST
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oops
T. Murph should precede Hunter…
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 8:04 AM CST
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Poveda
He repeated full-season low A, but that’s more work than we’ve seen from Wilmer Font. I’ll vote him over Ross, too.
80% of success…
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on
Dec 5, 2008 8:27 AM CST
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Poveda
He repeated A ball after being in A ball at 18 so its not like he was a 20 or 21 year old redoing the league. He’ll only be 21 years old this year in AA.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on
Dec 5, 2008 12:58 PM CST
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Diamond
I had a paper route when I was a kid. I was supposed to go to 2,000 houses. Or two dumpsters.
by TheBZA on
Dec 5, 2008 8:33 AM CST
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This is getting tough
But I’m going to start voting Hunter.
by FuturePants on
Dec 5, 2008 8:52 AM CST
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Moreland
Mitch Moreland. I’ll be voting for him for a while too.
"You taste like a burger. I don't like you anymore."
by Prognosis Negative on
Dec 5, 2008 9:11 AM CST
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Ross
Again and probably gonna have to be next round too
by thedudeabides on
Dec 5, 2008 9:26 AM CST
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Strop/Petralli
ESPN’s Keith Law said in a chat session yesterday that, without studying rosters, if he had to take someone in this coming Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft, righthander Pedro Strop would be his first choice.
Petralli had his contract voided yeaterday due to an elbow issue.
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 9:36 AM CST
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strop
big gamble leaving him off the 40
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on
Dec 5, 2008 10:11 AM CST
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Eyre and Bannister
over him, ugh. I can only hope he gets returned to us mid-season.
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 10:38 AM CST
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If he gets claimed, I think that would be unlikely
Considering a claiming team can stash him on the 60-day DL at the start of the season.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on
Dec 5, 2008 10:43 AM CST
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right
but he would have to do well enough to stick on the roster and that is not a given. He is coming off of an injury and he hasn’t pitched a full season at AA.
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 10:48 AM CST
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one way or another
he still has to haev a full yr of service time at the ML level
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on
Dec 5, 2008 10:52 AM CST
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Just 90 days actually
He has to be on the active roster (25 man roster) for at least 90 days whether that takes one year or into a second year.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on
Dec 5, 2008 1:00 PM CST
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sry didnt mean a literal full season
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on
Dec 5, 2008 3:22 PM CST
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No but you are right
He does have to stay with them the entire season.
But so teams can’t abuse that by stashing guys on the DL for the majority of the season you have to be actually on the active 25 man roster for at least 90 days. So if they stash him on the 60 day DL until say mid August and he only gets 45 days on active duty this season then in 2010 he would have to start out on the active roster again for at least 45 more days before they could option him to the minors if they so choose.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on
Dec 5, 2008 3:55 PM CST
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Yes they can
But if he doesn’t get 90 days on the 25 man active roster this year then he will have to start 2010 on the active roster or be returned to us.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on
Dec 5, 2008 12:59 PM CST
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Not to be a broken record...
…but considering that no one was willing to use a 40 man roster spot on him in September, when he cleared waivers, or in October, when the Rangers signed him, I’m at a loss as to why they would suddenly be willing to devote a 40 man roster spot to him now, when they would then have to carry him on the 25 man roster as well.
A team could have claimed him in September if they really wanted him, and not jumped thru all the Rule 5 hoops. Or they could have signed him to a major league deal when he was a free agent.
by Adam J. Morris on
Dec 5, 2008 11:57 AM CST
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Why bother risking it?
If he has any upside, it’s silly not to protect him over say, Willie Eyre.
This is an exciting time in my life.
The LSB CPP's are in full bloom.
by Chase Irwin on
Dec 5, 2008 6:41 PM CST
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And for that matter...
…why not just sign him to a major league deal in the first place?
by Adam J. Morris on
Dec 5, 2008 6:52 PM CST
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I wouldn't be opposed to that
This guy has something. He threw a 3.16 FIP with a .330 BABIP.
I’d like to see him get a look in September, provided his innings don’t catch up to him.
This is an exciting time in my life.
The LSB CPP's are in full bloom.
by Chase Irwin on
Dec 5, 2008 6:58 PM CST
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I can't believe Font won.
That one should have been Poveda, but oh well, I’ll just have to vote for him again.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on
Dec 5, 2008 9:39 AM CST
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Ghost of O'campo
O’campo appears to be but a mere spectre haunting the bounderies of the top 30 so I just wanted to put some O’campo love in the ether:
6-3 195, FB 90-94, AA to plus breaking ball, ave change up, a second Breaking ball (his plus breaking ball appears to be a curve ball but there is some debate about this), one of the top CA prep pitchers. signed for 3-4rd money
Perfect Game scouting report:
Pitching – over the top slot, very quick loose arm, deep extension backside, cranks it up, free and easy delivery, FB very lively at plate, good late life, plus spin on breaking ball, ranged CB velocity, all appeared to be CBs, threw some very hard, good down bite, shape stayed pretty consistent, good feel of CU, good fade action.
Could Ocampo be a NeRa mini-me?
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 9:45 AM CST
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Slider/curve
O’Campo has a very good slider and is working on developing a curve.
by jparks77 on
Dec 5, 2008 10:02 AM CST
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JP
Perfect game suggested (in one of their reviews of his perf in a tournament and in the pre-draft profile above) that in a couple of pieces that it was a curveball and MJH was also insistent about this in his latest profiles.
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 10:11 AM CST
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According to O'Campo
the curve was a pitch he threw a lot in high school and has just recently started bringing it back again.
by jparks77 on
Dec 5, 2008 10:17 AM CST
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Here is PG's eval of the confusion surrounding his BB at a showcase
But PG’s coverage of one of the showcases suggests that he has always thrown a curve that sometimes looks like a slider. So maybe that is where the confusion lies…
http://www.perfectgame.org/stories/07_03_14_updating_the_prospects_from_national/
Ocampo appeared to have more than one type of breaking ball, but in retrospect, all were likley curveballs, ranging from 70-79 mph with plus spin and hard downward bite. The thing that made all of them seem to be curveballs was that the shape did not really change, no matter the velocity.
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 10:13 AM CST
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The velocity here
also suggests curveball
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 10:14 AM CST
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MJH sent me a point of clarification
he talked with Adair who said that Ocampo throws both a curve and a slider but Adair likes the CB as the better pitch. If, as Ocampo says, he was throwing a CB the most in HS it stands to reason that the CB is the pitch that most pre-draft evals were calling a slider especially if the slider is a pitch he only started working on diligently in instructs/rookie ball.
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 4:10 PM CST
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Sounds about right
I very rarely believe pre-draft evaluations when it comes to breaking ball description, especially with HS kids. They are often experimenting with grips and arm angles, and most of them aren’t even exactly sure of what they are really throwing. Most of the time it depends on what the scout happened to see on a particular day. It gets even more confusing when the pitches are thrown with the same velo.
For example: Several different sources, including MLB, Deric McKamey and John Sickels, categorized Michael Main’s breaking pitch as a slider. According to Main, he has never knowingly thrown a slider. Ever. It happens.
by jparks77 on
Dec 5, 2008 4:45 PM CST
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yeah it is interesting
how much variation there is in evaluation of breaking balls. You don’t really notice until you start comparing old scouting reports to the reports coming from them pitching in your system. Even then, the pre-draft reports vary a lot between them. For example, Mayo had Ross’ secondary stuff as just average, while BA and others had higher praise.
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 4:58 PM CST
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Diamond
This is the year he has to build his name again. I hope he does, now being a year removed from TJ surgery etc.
Wait 'til the year after next
by NothinG on
Dec 5, 2008 9:50 AM CST
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Hunter...
again.
The fact that a guy who blazed through our entire minor league system and made the bigs in one year may not be in the top 20 prospects is crazy imo. I understand the argument against with his lack of upside, but I think people are severly underrating him here. I know he isn’t a top 10 talent with this deep of a system, but top not in the top 20? I personally would have him at #14.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on
Dec 5, 2008 10:04 AM CST
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i think the problem is
the system is just far too deep in high end big upside talent. I like hunter, and poveda as well. but when comparing them to some of the other guys in this range with upside (ross,murphy, weiland) i just cant rank them above those 3.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on
Dec 5, 2008 10:14 AM CST
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What happened to runoffs?
in the past, 2 votes separating two guys would be voted on again – but usually there werne’t 4 or 5 guys lumped together.
by JBImaknee on
Dec 5, 2008 10:22 AM CST
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I kinda get the feeling that if we start doing runoffs for every 1-2 vote win
We’re still going to be at this come spring training.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on
Dec 5, 2008 10:30 AM CST
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I aksed about a run-off and everyone who responded, iirc, said "just call it".
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on
Dec 5, 2008 10:37 AM CST
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runoffs are unnecessary IMO
The best thing about these polls isn’t so much the results, but the discussion.
Don't believe the hype about sloppy seconds. They ain't bad.
by tricer on
Dec 5, 2008 10:39 AM CST
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Yah, that's kind of what I was thinking.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on
Dec 5, 2008 10:40 AM CST
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+3
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on
Dec 5, 2008 10:42 AM CST
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They'll be back to back
in a called vote or a run-off so who cares…I vote for a speedy process
by Goyogringo on
Dec 5, 2008 10:39 AM CST
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I vote that
your vote for a speedy process shouldnt count haha jk :-)
by Michael Cave on
Dec 5, 2008 11:06 AM CST
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I don't care about runoffs
outside of the top 10 or so.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on
Dec 5, 2008 10:40 AM CST
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seems like a quick count
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
by ab03 on
Dec 5, 2008 10:27 AM CST
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Hmmm...?
I left it up 24 hours, or at least close enough to that to give everyone who wanted to vote an opportunity to vote.
Or at least I thought so.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on
Dec 5, 2008 10:39 AM CST
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Diamond
Proximity to Arlington and we’ve (hopefully) seen him bottom out and it’s all up form here.
Kinda interesting that Ross is getting love here, given the MJH’s write-up on him was slightly meh. Inverted W and all.
by Keynes on
Dec 5, 2008 10:58 AM CST
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Ross then Lil' L
This is an exciting time in my life.
The LSB CPP's are in full bloom.
by Chase Irwin on
Dec 5, 2008 11:17 AM CST
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Just for fun:
Which scenario would you consider to be the most
likely for our minor league prospects?
1. Boscan eventually ends up with the most major league wins.
2. Lemon ends up being a more valuable middle infielder than Andrus.
3. Engel Beltre never makes a major league club.
4. Kiker ends up with the best major Ranger ratio of K/BB on his team.
5. Borbon has an OBP over .400 almost every year.
6. Vallejo ends up being an everyday SS somewhere.
7. Holland ends up moving to the bullpen.
8. Maximiliano becomes an everyday catcher for somebody.
"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer
by rodcarew on
Dec 5, 2008 7:30 PM CST
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I think the three most likely: 8-7-2
And 7 and 2 are probably less than 25% chances.
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 5, 2008 7:37 PM CST
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You think there's...
…a better than 75% chance Engel Beltre is a major leaguer?
by Adam J. Morris on
Dec 5, 2008 7:41 PM CST
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And
A less than 25% chance Vallejo could concivably start at short for someone?
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on
Dec 5, 2008 8:07 PM CST
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I would agree with that
I think the list of players who are minor league 2B, and subsequently successfully convert to shortstop, is quite short.
by Adam J. Morris on
Dec 5, 2008 8:33 PM CST
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and don’t just convert but be an everyday player…
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 5, 2008 9:51 PM CST
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Yes
Everyday SS is pretty unlikely.
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 5, 2008 9:50 PM CST
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Yes
One at bat in the majors with his skill set seems very likely.
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 5, 2008 9:50 PM CST
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I'd say probably...
6 then 8.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on
Dec 5, 2008 8:02 PM CST
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In order from most likely to least likely: 8, 3, 2, 7, 6, 1, 5.
I can’t rank #4 cause I have no idea what “the best major Ranger ratio of K/BB on his team” means.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on
Dec 5, 2008 8:43 PM CST
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Sorry, should have said major (league)
"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer
by rodcarew on
Dec 5, 2008 8:46 PM CST
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So you mean the odds that he'll ever have a season where he posts the best k/bb ratio on the Rangers' big league team?
In that case I’d put it right between 7 and 6 on my real sexy as hell list up there.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on
Dec 5, 2008 8:58 PM CST
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Incidentally...
I’m at a loss as to how Omar Poveda ranks ahead of Robbie Ross.
If you offered 29 teams their choice of Poveda or Ross right now, I’ve got to think 29 teams take Ross.
by Adam J. Morris on
Dec 5, 2008 10:38 PM CST
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Ross
Granted I don’t know a hell of a lot about Ross. But your negativity toward Poveda is puzzling to me. The guy will be 21 years old next year in AA. He increased his strikeout ratio moving up levels. His walks increased but those have never been a problem in the past so there is reason to think those will subside. Im sure you’re gonna bring up the fact he redid a year in Clinton but is that really that big a deal? If its a 21 or 22 year old then yeah that is troubling. But when you redo A ball at the age of 19 I think thats still ahead of the curve age-wise.
Ross may very well be a great prospect. But I don’t know how you rank a guy who hasn’t pitched in a pro league yet ahead Poveda right now. At midseason that may very well change but right now I just can’t see it. Just like with Font, who I think Poveda should be ahead of, scouting reports are nice but unless they are substantiated with performance its just speculation.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on
Dec 5, 2008 10:53 PM CST
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Ross vs Poveda
Ross will start next season as a 19 yo in either Spokane or Hickory. According to pre-draft reports, he has a fastball that can reach into the low 90’s + a slider and change-up with the capacity to develop into quality pitches. He might be 6’ tall, though the pictures I’ve seen would suggest that he is shorter.
By the time Poveda was 19, he had completed one year of full season A-ball where he put up okay numbers despite being one of the youngest guys in the league. At that time, he had a fastball that was reported to reach the low-90’s + a great change-up + a developing curveball. As a 19 yo, Poveda was outstanding in A ball and put up decent numbers in Bakersfield. He’s now survived Bakersfield and is moving on to Frisco after developing a solid curve ball which he added to his still great change-up and a fastball that he’s added a few MPH to. Poveda is bigger (6’3" and ~200 lbs) and likely more durable (he averaged 150+ IP as a 18 and 19 yo) than Ross whose primary secondary offering is a slider.
In my opinion, Poveda is more valuable than Ross because his floor is higher and his ceiling is about the same.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 5, 2008 11:06 PM CST
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Zywica's take on Poveda
I just noticed that Zywica had a similar take on the Ross vs Poveda vote yesterday. If this is simply about voting for the pitcher whom you believe to have the higher upside, then I can understand that though, as noted above, I don’t agree.
However, I did find it interesting that in Zywica’s personal Top20, he had Kiker ranked #17 and Poveda somewhere outside the Top 20. I would like to understand the rationale for liking Kiker almost as much as Ross (Ross was #15 on his personal list) while being shocked that anyone would consider Poveda worth considering when given the option of selecting Ross. As noted in a comment a couple of days ago, Poveda’s stuff and performance have been at least on par with if not better than Kiker’s. For the most part, Poveda’s pitched against more advanced hitters than Kiker at the same age. Both pitcher’s will likely be in the Frisco rotation next spring as 21 yo’s and frankly, I will be surprised if Poveda doesn’t put up better numbers.
So what is the rationale for ranking Kiker higher than Poveda and for being surprised that others would vote for Poveda over Ross?
by spurdynasty on
Dec 5, 2008 11:26 PM CST
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Poveda's minor league performance relative to other Rangers pitching prospects
Baseball Reference features a grading system for pitchers that compares their cumulative minor league performance relative to others in the leagues in which they’ve pitched (see description below). I just grabbed a few Rangers pitching prospects and showed them relative to Poveda. Just because he’s lost the sexy that comes with being too young to accurately judge doesn’t mean that he isn’t putting up quality numbers in leagues where almost everyone he plays against is older than him. The guy is legit.
Omar Poveda
Control: 80
K-Rating: 91
Efficiency: 86
Kasey Kiker
Control: 43
K-Rating: 94
Efficiency: 52
Eric Hurley
Control: 71
K-Rating: 84
Efficiency: 90
Matt Harrison
Control: 88
K-Rating: 13
Efficiency: 72
Tommy Hunter
Control: 96
K-Rating: 49
Efficiency: 91
Derek Holland
Control: 88
K-Rating: 98
Efficiency: 100
Neftali Feliz
Control: 36
K-Rating: 100
Efficiency: 98
Michael Schlact
Control: 67
K-Rating: 15
Efficiency: 31
Doug Mathis
Control: 81
K-Rating: 51
Efficiency: 60
Based on a rating of 100, scouting scores are statistically derived and do not use any subjective analysis by The Baseball Cube, scouts or any third party publications. Though statistical, the methodology is, for the most part, basic. The ratings represent a player’s ranking compared his peers and has nothing to do with a pre-determined bench mark. In other words, there are an equal amount of 100s, 50s and 1s for each stat category.
The ratings are based on formulas that sum a player’s entire career based on available statistics in our database, including minor league and college data. These scouting scores are to be used as indicators of a player’s strength.
Control: Walks compared to batters faced.
k-Rating: Strikeouts compared to batters faced.
Efficiency: Similar to WHIP, a higher rating for pitchers allowing less baserunners per inning pitched.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 12:03 AM CST
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Goldstein
Man, you are going to hate his opinion about stat based analysis like this.
Preview:
Goldstein: You can’t do it. You absolutely cannot just go off stats. There are two questions that I always ask when evaluating prospects. The first one is: what is he doing performance wise? The second one is how is he doing it? It’s that how’s he doing it question that you can’t answer with a stat line. You can find two pitchers in High A that both have similar numbers. Both have a 2.50 era and a strikeout per inning, and you say that you have two great prospects, but one is, and one isn’t. Because one is a power guy that is blowing people away and the other guy is a trick finesse guy that is just fooling people. Those are two very different prospects with equal stats.
by jparks77 on
Dec 6, 2008 12:15 AM CST
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I agree completely with Goldstein's comment
What he omitted in his statement, however, is that you cannot go simply off scouting reports either. If that were not true, then Fabio Castillo would likely be among the Rangers Top 5 or Top 10 prospects.
A pitcher should be evaluated for stuff + performance. Stats tell you how a pitcher has performed in the past. Obviously, what you would like to know is how a pitcher is going to perform in the future. Scouting provides you a sense of what to expect in the future, but no more so than several years of performance stats. Combining the two provides you the best estimate of what a pitcher can be expected to do in his next 1-3 years.
In my opinion, the only time that scouting supercedes stats is when a pitcher adds a new pitch or significantly improves a pitch that he already has. A scout will see that before it shows up in a pitcher’s stats. For instance, Main moved up 3 spots on my Rangers list based on the scouting report that you and others brought back from the FIL.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 12:37 AM CST
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Of course
But the point is that you can’t just compare players using those metrics and expect to draw a realistic conclusion about their prospect status. It just doesn’t work that way.
Look, I’m not trying to piss on your work. I like it. It’s just not a very effective way of determining prospect status. Stats are great. I’m a huge numbers guy. Love ’em. But, as Goldstein mentions, at this stage of development the how is just as important, if not more so, than the what.
by jparks77 on
Dec 6, 2008 12:46 AM CST
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Just curious
In your opinion, what Rangers’ prospects have the lowest correlation between your ranking and their performance metrics?
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 12:53 AM CST
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I tend to rank based on a combination of stats and scouting
I probably weigh stats more heavily than most because I’ve done my homework and understand what combinations of stats are most predictive of future performance. The end result is that there is a very strong correlation between my prospect rankings and their statistical profiles – at least for players that have 2-3 years under their belts. Worth noting is that I do account for age relative to league in my stats and I use cumulative numbers with more emphasis given to recent years relative to earlier years.
If I didn’t age-adjust, then Andrus, Beltre, and Perez would be the biggest outliers for me in a plot of ranking vs performance.
I suspect that you and I have a similar rank for Hurley (I have him at 11) which correlates reasonably well with his historical performance, though probably not so much with his 2008 AAA performance. If he’s one of your big outliers, then I woudl say that you are much more performance-sentric than you like to believe.
OBTW, I thoroughly enjoy your work and weigh your opinion heavily in my own rankings. I can’t wait to read your interview with Goldstein.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 1:46 AM CST
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Thanks
I use a combination of stats and scouting as well, but I do tend to lean more towards the scouting reports, especially with the younger players.
Stats, much like scouting reports, can often be very misleading and easily influenced by the developmental process. The key is being able to accurately analyze the data and extract the truth from the bullshit. You do a good job of that.
by jparks77 on
Dec 6, 2008 2:11 AM CST
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Shouldn't you be posting an article at BBTiA instead of wasting time at LSB?
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 2:19 AM CST
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It's already up.
I’ll wait until Jason creates a separate fanpost, but there certainly are some intriguing responses.
by LiamP on
Dec 6, 2008 2:21 AM CST
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Awesome
Interestingly, I checked BBTiA less than five minutes ago.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 2:23 AM CST
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I enjoyed it, as well
Will Part II focus on your questions, Jason? I think it would be fun to see you pick Goldstein’s brain.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 2:41 AM CST
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Honestly, I didn't ask any.
I received over 75 submissions (via BBTiA, NMLR, direct email, IM, etc..) and I wanted to get as many of those answered as I could. Unfortunately, I was only able to squeeze in about 25 questions.
However, this won’t be the last Goldstein Q&A. I’m going to try and line up another one with him soon after his Rangers rankings drop on BP.
by jparks77 on
Dec 6, 2008 2:48 AM CST
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Do you know when his rankings will drop?
I know Fitt’s rankings for BA are on Monday, and I think we’re like 5th in line for Sickels…
by LiamP on
Dec 6, 2008 2:53 AM CST
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I think in late Jan or Feb
He started with the National League this year.
by jparks77 on
Dec 6, 2008 2:56 AM CST
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Baseball Reference #'s for more Rangers pitching prospects
In case you want to use these to help with your voting in the next few rounds:
Thomas Diamond
Control: 20
K-Rating: 99
Efficiency: 73
Warner Madrigal
Control: 54
K-Rating: 96
Efficiency: 92
Tim Murphy
Control: 41
K-Rating: 99
Efficiency: 83
Beau Jones
Control: 11
K-Rating: 91
Efficiency: 27
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 12:20 AM CST
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Scale of 1-100 I take it? Not the 80 scale, obviously.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on
Dec 6, 2008 1:11 AM CST
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You are right
The scale is 1-100, and I think that the distribution is flat (i.e., the same number of 1’s, 2’s, 50’s, 100’s, etc.), so you shoudl consider this percentile relative to other pitchers in the same league. I really haven’t spent any time with the Baseball Reference numbers and have no idea how they fluctuate year-to-year. The description indicaes that they are cumulative – I’m not sure if they are weighted toward latter year performances, which is how I would prefer it. Regardless, the numbers shoudl be taken with a grain of salt.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 1:17 AM CST
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Sorry, but I just realized that I mis-cited the source of the percentile ranks for the pitching prospects
Those number are located at TheBaseballCube, not Baseball Reference. Sorry for the confusion.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 2:12 AM CST
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I don't understand your issue with my ranking/comment
15. Ross
17. Kiker
NR. Poveda
while being shocked that anyone would consider Poveda worth considering when given the option of selecting Ross
Those two things don’t conflict with each other.
The discrepancy that you probably just can’t agree with me on is that I don’t think that Poveda’s stuff is that great. From all of your comments, your impression is clearly more optimistic than mine.
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 6, 2008 12:35 AM CST
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I assume that you would not be shocked if someone voted for Kiker over Ross since the two of them are within a couple of slots in your rankings.
If that is true, then I would assume that you would be shocked if someone voted for Poveda over Kiker.
If my assumptions are correct, then I would like to understand the basis for your opinion that Kiker is a significantly better prospect than Poveda.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 12:44 AM CST
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Your assumptions are too extreme.
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 6, 2008 12:46 AM CST
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To expound
Let’s say Poveda would be my 21 or 22, which he probably would be. I think that Ross is more promising than Kiker right at this moment because Kiker is not showing his optimal stuff. Kiker has the advantage of navigating some of the dangerous injury terrain, which narrows that gap some. If Kiker’s stuff doesn’t improve back to where it’s been at its best, I’d put him in Poveda’s class. The potential that it is there somewhere and can come back keeps him a few spots ahead of Poveda.
So, Ross > Kiker and Kiker > Poveda, each by a little. It’s not like I think Ross and Kiker are total studs and Poveda is gutter trash. I just think that it seems pretty apparent that Ross is viewed as more promising at this point, and each of those margins around Kiker are enough that I don’t think that Poveda should be ahead of Ross.
Maybe Poveda’s stuff will eventually take that step that there was hope when he was 18 that it would. But aside from the good changeup that he’s always had, I don’t think it has yet, at least from what I’ve read and seen.
One more thing, I assume that you have a nuanced enough grasp of rankings to recognize that they are not linear. There are clusters and drop-offs. I think that the difference between Feliz and Main (1 and 6 on my list) is no greater than the difference between Main and Teagarden (6 and 7).
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 6, 2008 12:55 AM CST
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That's where I hoped that this would go
Regarding the last paragraph, I understand and agree completely that their are prospect tiers. Your language regarding Poveda “I’m at a loss” and “Poveda over Ross is stupid” led me to believe that you are of the opinion that there is a significant difference between the Ross/Kiker tier and the Poveda tier. If, in fact, you see the difference being primarily between Ross and Kiker/Poveda, then I can understand (though I disagree).
More importantly – you’ve seen Poveda pitch in person? Recently? I’ve listened to a couple of dozen of his games on the radio and have been impressed, but I’ve never seen him pitch except in a few videos. What do you is like about his stuff? Is that fastball not really low-90’s? Does it lack movement? Does Poveda have trouble with command? Thanks for any inisights you might have.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 1:06 AM CST
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As far as my comment, I am guilty of being brash for the sake of the comment getting noticed. If I’d made an understated comment like “I think that Ross should be ranked above Poveda” you wouldn’t have noticed it and taken the time to consider and reject my opinion. And I do feel fairly strong about it, so I thought that it was something enough worth pondering that it deserved more attention grabbing verbeage. I was also posting from my phone, I believe, and was trying to express a strong feeling as succinctly as possible. _ is stupid seems like it gets that done, heh.
Like you I’ve only seen video on Poveda. I’ve heard that he’s still bobbing around in that 89-92 range, and while his movement is probably okay, I don’t think that there are indications that it is a major factor. My other issue is that I haven’t seen from someone who seems respected and objective (objective in that he’s not speaking as someone writing exclusively for the benefit of Rangers fans) who thinks that his breaking ball has made great progress.
I haven’t said this in this discussion, but I have before on Poveda. He’s the kind of guy that I’d take as many of as I can find, because if you take enough Povedas, one or some will take that step from a guy with a pitcher’s body and all of the basic, necessary elements to one that has developed some aspect(s) of his game to where they’re well above average.
However, when you take a Poveda as a single entity, and when I don’t think that I’ve seen those steps happen yet, and I’ve been waiting for three years so far, I think that until further notice you’re dealing with a lump of clay that isn’t receiving the inspiration to transform from something workable and unexciting to something exciting.
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 6, 2008 1:15 AM CST
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Understood
For what it is worth, Poveda was third only to Holland and Feliz this year in wow factor on 2008 radio broadcasts for me. His fastball was consistently described as 90-94, he produced a lot of swinging strikes, and his curveball became more effective with each game he pitched. By the end of the season, I would estimate that at least one-third of his K’s were on curveballs.
In contrast, Kiker was just trying to hang on. He rarely produced 1-2-3 innings and it seemed that most of the time he was facing hitters with runners in scoring position. I hope that you are right and the Kiker has a nice bounce-back year next year, but it is unclear to me that Kiker made any progress in 2008.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 1:26 AM CST
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Kiker was obviously a mess
No one would rank Kiker anywhere on this list solely based on what he showed. As far as Poveda, I hope you ask Aaron Fitt for his opinion if he doesn’t rank Poveda in the top ten. I am a little hesitant to draw too much from A-ball radio announcers, so even though I certainly don’t regard Fitt as any final word, more corroboration on a consistent 90-94 swing and miss FB, swing and miss curveball, and the changeup that he already had, to go along with decent command and a still projectable body, would be the organization’s 7th or 8th best prospect.
Also, if he was getting better and better, why did his performance not improve as the season went on? He had two years of Low A under his belt, and a cameo in 2007 plus 2008 in High A. I would think that with someone that promising and improving, it would be pretty evident in his numbers. It shouldn’t have been that he tired, since he threw less than 100 innings.
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 6, 2008 1:41 AM CST
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Poveda's 2008 season
I can’t find the numbers to support this (milb.com has shifted Poveda’s stat line to his winter league performance), but I would be shocked if there were not significant differences in Poveda’s k-rate, BAA, and ERA between the first and second halves of the 2008 season. There was probably not a big difference in his walk rate between the two halves since he consistently and inexplicably had runs of 8-10 pitches where he seemingly could not throw a strike. Based on listening to his games, I suspect that 30-40% of his ERA resulted from his occasional lapses in control.
I like the idea of sending in a question to BA, though I don’t see any justification for ranking Poveda among the Rangers’ Top10 prospects. Even I, an admitted fan of Poveda, have him ranked in the mid-teens.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 2:02 AM CST
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One other thing worth noting
Poveda appeared to be using his curve a lot more in the second half of the season than in the first.
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 2:18 AM CST
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Here are the #s which I have posted before
in support of Poveda:
After his return from injury;
Last 8 starts: 47ip/36h/5hr/15er/21bb/47so/2.92er
Further support, Poveda does not have questions about his makeup that Kiker is now burdened with. Poveda’s injury was not due to being out of shape and unprepared for the season. Kiker’s bad season it seems can be rooted in personal issues. That fact alone knocks Kiker below Poveda on my list (but not too far).
by Goyogringo on
Dec 6, 2008 2:17 AM CST
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Where do you have Poveda ranked?
Why is he ranked lower than Kiker?
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 12:55 AM CST
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I think that Kiker has a better chance to see his stuff reach the caliber that he is a difference maker on a major league staff than Poveda does. Do I think that Kiker will do that? Probably not. But he has shown a FB well into the 90s and legitimate 2nd and 3rd pitches. I don’t think that Poveda has ever seen his velocity spike like folks hoped it would, at least as of yet, and I don’t think that his breaking ball has made great strides.
I think that you have to go outside of a programmed, uniform evaluation, step back and take in the whole situation. And plugging their 2008 stats and ages and trying to make concreete, numerical comparisons for their 2008 “stuff” doesn’t accomplish that. I am by no means certain that Kiker will be better than Poveda. If I were they’d be much further than a few spots apart down in the late teens to early twenties on my list. They’re both still very young, and either could experience a breakthrough.
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 6, 2008 1:07 AM CST
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PECOTA
IIRC, you are a fan of PECOTA. If so, how do you weight PECOTA relative to scouting reports in considering your rankings of prospects?
by spurdynasty on
Dec 6, 2008 2:04 AM CST
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Eh
I think that PECOTA is a useful secondary tool, but I use it for novelty more than analysis. I value scouting reports from informed sources much more highly. If I need to come up with a conclusion like Willy Aybar is something like the second best prospect in the minors, I think that I can come up with something that silly myself.
Like with a lot of other types of analysis, it’s good information if you know how to filter it, but I don’t know how useful it really is without that ability.
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 6, 2008 6:28 PM CST
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But half the people on here would hold up a Laird for Bailey + Encarnacion deal
if Poveda was involved.
I think this group already rejected Salty+Poveda for Bowden+Bard.
I don’t get it, but people seem to love the guy
by JBImaknee on
Dec 5, 2008 11:40 PM CST
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Poveda
He had a very solid year statistically (not really spectacular, but very solid) and did close his season out on a high note. Word is he’s supposed to have one of the best changeups in the system, and also added some velocity this year – it seems to me that if his breaking ball continues to develop he could turn into a nice little pitcher.
Ross probably has a higher ceiling (kinda seems like a Kasey Kiker clone to me), but we just drafted him for petes sake. He hasn’t even seen any MiLB action yet, whereas Poveda has been making steady progress the last few years and should be in AA next year. Also, I think Mike Hindman might have a valid point when he nitpicks Ross’s mechanics and the fact that he’s a small-bodied pitcher who likes to break off a sharp slider – maybe it this opinion comes from picking Brandon McCarthy’s mechanics apart, but that sounds like an injury hazard waiting to happen to me.
Personally, out of the pitchers we drafted this year I like Joe Wieland a lot more than Ross.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by lonestarJon on
Dec 6, 2008 12:05 AM CST
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Yeah same here
I don’t get it.
by Brett Perryman on
Dec 6, 2008 12:37 AM CST
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slightly off topic
since i didnt wanna great another fan post on this and this seems like a perfect thread to discuss this…
What about a trade with tampa bay? If there could be one big trade that i could kind of materializing is a deal with rays for one of our corner OFs under team control. Seems like they may not be able to sign MB and likely any other bigger name FA OFs, and they definitely seem the weakest at the RF. Id love to see us talk to them about trading a Brandon Boggs or a David Murphy in some type of package to get one of their pitchers. They have such rediculous depth of young pitching seems like we should constantly be talking to them this winter.
Hellickson, Davis, Nieman, even McGee wont all be able to fit into their long term plans, or maybe like others have talked about SOnnanstine/Jackson. I dont think Murphy alone would be enough to get a couple of those guys, and knowing how these deals works, im sure there would be several players involved. But it sure does seem like a nice fit to me b/c just like with our catching situation, it sure seems like we dont have enough room in our OF for Hamilton, Cruz. Byrd, Murphy, Boggs, Cat, and that doesnt even include the quickly rising Borbon.
What do you think?
by blalock84 on
Dec 6, 2008 3:11 AM CST
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wow, i guess
i drank way too much b4 posting this, sorry
by blalock84 on
Dec 6, 2008 3:12 AM CST
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