LSB Community Prospect Project: #19
by thedirkatron on Dec 6, 2008 8:02 AM CST
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PrintCompared to the last two votes, the votes for #18 was a blowout.
Diamond:42
Hunter: 43
Ross: 49
Omar Poveda: 63
So, after 236 votes, Omar Poveda has won the right to be called the LSB Community #18 prospect!.
The list so far:
1. LHP, Derek Holland.
2. RHP, Neftali Feliz
3. 1b, Justin Smoak
4. RHP, Michael Main
5. SS, Elvis Andrus
6. C, Taylor Teagarden
7. C, Maximiliano Ramirez
8. LHP, Martin Perez
9. OF, Julio Borbon
10. RHP, Eric Hurley
11. OF, Engel Beltre
12. RHP, Blake Beavan
13. RHP, Wilfredo Boscan
14. RHP, Neil Ramirez
15. LHP, Kasey Kiker
16. 2b, Jose Vallejo
17. RHP, Wilmer Font
18. RHP, Omar Poveda
Time to move on to the vote for #19.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
NOTE: There has been some speculation as to what the criteria are for this vote. Should guys who have spent time in the bigs be involved in "prospect" discussions? For the sake of this exercise we're taking what the guys have done in the big leagues and using the BA prospect formula of 130 AB's or 50 ip. If a guy is under those limits, he's still a prospect and he goes on the poll. It's that simple.
Resources:
- MJH's prospect previews for the DMN Blog:
- 11 Weeks of FFG (Prelude to Prospects Lists below)
- RH Starters 1-5
- RH Starters 6-10
- RH Starters 11-15
- LH Starters 1-5
- LH Starters 6-10
- Relievers 1-5
- Catchers
- Outfielders
Jason Parks and Joey Matschulat's Top 25 list from their excellent Rangers' site, BBTiA.com.
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Big Tom Diamond.
Hopefully for the last time… but I doubt it.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
Please help with Ross vs Wieland
I have Hunter/Murphy and Wieland/Ross as pairs of guys that I am considering. I am inclined to vote for upside this time after voting the last few rounds for Poveda. Why do you have Ross over Wieland?
Early scouting reports suggest that Wieland’s stuff might have exceeded Ross’ already. I see Wieland in much the same way that I viewed Holland last year and early this year – Good athlete with room to add strength (and fastball velocity), excellent control, and two potential swing-and-miss pitches.
I haven’t voted yet so your Ross support could sway me.
Here I can help you...
THOMAS DIAMOND!!!
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
You know, I have always thought Diamond had the best name in the system
“Tommy D” – the name sounds like something out of an old Bogart film. All he needs is a suit and a fedora.
Like you, I love Diamond's k-rate
But I can’t get beyond the lack of control. Diamond’s still in the Top30, perhaps even Top25. But I’ve got him tagged as a reliever and in that role, I don’t see him being significantly more intriguing than either Madrigal or Strop. All three pitchers have great k-rates and unsightly walk-rates.
The control will come back now that he's fully healthy for the first time ina long while.
Honestly I’d put him much higher if I was sure he would come back healthy. A lot of guys come back just as strong or stronger after TJ suregery. But not all. Some never get the raw stuff back. That’s my only question with Thomas the Diamond. He’s got great raw stuff.
Oh, and I think he’s still a starting pitching prospect, which is where the real discrepancy is in our rankings of the guy.
Hopefully on this one I’m right and you’re wrong ;)
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 6, 2008 10:01 AM CST up reply actions
Control will come back?
I’m tempted to say when was it ever there? I supposed it’s possible he’s been injured since 2005, but it looks more like he suffers from “jumping to AA” disease.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I disagree.
Should be something interesting to watch as the season unfolds, I suppose.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 6, 2008 12:45 PM CST up reply actions
It took Francisco 3yrs
to regain his control and velocity. He missed 05 came back in mid 06 was a useful MR for the rangers in 07 but in no way back to form. In 08 he finally began hitting 97 and his control came back. Diamond regaining his glory years (before AA) is in no way a certainty and could be a year away.
TJ Surgery
I think people forget that TJ Surgery is major surgery. People don’t regularly come back as strong in all facets. And to this point, Diamond’s recovery, coupled with the foot issues he had during the season, hasn’t encouraged me. Coupled with his age, I think Diamond doesn’t merit consideration at this point. And he wouldn’t be considered right now if he wasn’t a former 1st round pick or his name wasn’t Diamond.
Wieland
Don’t remember which scouting report it was, but the word seemed to be he didn’t have a frame to add strength to.
Is that off?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Dec 6, 2008 8:27 AM CST up reply actions
Ht/Wt on Wieland and Ross
Wieland – 6’3", 175 lbs
Ross – 6’0", 170 lbs
Photos and videos of the two suggest to me that Ross is relatively filled out while Wieland is still relatively slim.
Huh
I just realized that according to MJH Ross is 5’11" 185, and according to BBTiA he’s 6’0" 170.
Can anybody clarify that one?
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by LSJ on Dec 6, 2008 8:46 AM CST up reply actions
That height is inaccurate
Ross is probably closer to 5’10’’. He’s little. He looks like Kiker from a distance.
Have you seen Wieland in person?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Dec 6, 2008 9:04 AM CST up reply actions
That's what I kind of thought too
Going back and watching his draft video.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by LSJ on Dec 6, 2008 9:07 AM CST up reply actions
Not much help
I’m going on the collective reports I’ve read which lean towards Ross. Wieland is next for me, not a big separation there in my mind.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
+1
ross
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on Dec 6, 2008 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
Ross
It’s inconceivable that he’s not on the list yet! inconceivable i say!
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
What does that word mean?
I do not think it means what you think it means.
Neftali Feliz is not a swimmer.
It means
that there is no way that a masked pirate could possibly still be alive, tailing you, and, yes, actually making up ground, even though you employ a giant.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 6, 2008 9:08 PM CST up reply actions
andre the giant in his greatest role
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
+1
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
YES
7 votes in and Golson is tied for the lead! COME ON!
On the other hand...
If I absolutely had to pick someone else at this point that might have a chance of winning it would be Ross.
golson
probably a tossup with diamond or hunter for me on the next vote
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on Dec 6, 2008 12:46 PM CST up reply actions
The Tool Shed
Freddie King rules faces.
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 6, 2008 8:22 AM CST reply actions
is that his new nickname
greg “the tool shed” golson
great!
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on Dec 6, 2008 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
Shorter
just Shed Golson, or just Shed.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Dec 6, 2008 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
shed golson
lol
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
Shed Golson
is ridiculous, I love it!
If others with similar tools come around would they be called Shed Jones or Shed McGinty?
Kind of like King or Darth.
Freddie King rules faces.
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 6, 2008 1:07 PM CST up reply actions
I am all for that
Where is DShep? I need a gif with Golson’s head peaking over the door of a shed with bats and baseballs and bases and dirt flying out…
+1
gif please
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
Shed Beltre
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by LSJ on Dec 6, 2008 9:36 PM CST up reply actions
dammit
+1 to john as I agree on the toolsy beltre
and
+1 to Mr. T for the wit
Freddie King rules faces.
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 7, 2008 12:10 AM CST up reply actions
You know...
I’m kind of feeling like we’re overlooking Warner Madrigal here. If Eric Hurley can net #10 over all the higher-ceiling talent, what about the Mad Dog’s performance in the bigs last season? After his ill-advised debut at Yankee Stadium and he held the opposition to a .237 average and a .683 OPS the rest of the season. Not too shabby for a 24 y/o converted OF who only started pitching two years ago. I know he’s relief pitcher, but I’d have him in my top 20 (if I had one).
It's hard to vote for a reliever when there are still compelling prospects who profile as starters
The impact of starters on their teams’ win-loss record is substantially greater than that of relievers. In general, a good ML starter is equivalent to a great closer and better than almost any late inning or middle reliever.
I love the kid, but I'm not sure he's got closer stuff.
If he turns out to be Scott Shields, that’s great. But it’s tough for me to rank him over guys like Kiker and Diamond who could start and have the potential to turn into closers themselves if that doesn’t work out.
He’s a good prospect, though.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 6, 2008 10:44 AM CST up reply actions
yes and no
name, projected position, probable level next yr
ross, starter (who knows what level)
hunter, no one knows – could go either way (AAA?)
diamond, no one knows – could go either way (AA? AAA?)
madrigal, reliever (at MLB)
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on Dec 6, 2008 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
hes not that much worse of a prospec than hurley
but yes, hurley is veryveryvery high
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on Dec 6, 2008 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
Lemon
Showed too much at too high a level to blow off for a HS kid and a rookie-league pitcher.
In the #18 thread, Adam used the “who’d get more interest when offered around the league” rule of thumb.
That’s a thought experiment on projection, and projection’s always sexier than results. That’s why people love watching the draft.
Not a lot of heuristic value in that. You favor players who have stat lines, especially stat lines with better As preceding them.
Diamond’s making sense at #19, but I like Lemon’s warts better.
Go Strangers.
In the alternative...
…think of it this way…
Tom Hicks gets drunk in Las Vegas next week, and makes some public comments about the A’s and Michael Inoa that are inappropriate. Selig decides to make an example of him, and award the A’s a player.
MLB comes to Jon Daniels and says, the A’s are getting either Robbie Ross or Omar Poveda. Your choice. Who should Daniels give them?
Or, this time around, for example, substitute Lemon for Poveda. The A’s either get Lemon or Ross from the Rangers. Who should Daniels give them?
If you say Ross instead of Poveda (or Ross instead of Lemon), I don’t see how you can justify having Ross ranked lower than the other guy.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 6, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
What?
If we were willing to give up Ross rather than either Lemon or Poveda wouldn’t that mean we value Poveda or Lemon higher thus they would be ranked higher?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Sorry
I mixed that up. Should be the other way around.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 6, 2008 1:05 PM CST up reply actions
personally
id rather give lemon away than any of them
lemon is a guy who is probably, almost guaranteed, to be a 2b
poveda has a true plus pitch and is going to be a AA and is quite young
ross is a guy that many saw as the top HS LHP in the draft
id give lemon away way before i gave someone like ross or poveda away
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on Dec 6, 2008 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
In order of prefering to see in an A's uniform
1. Lemon
2. Poveda
3. Ross
The distance between 1 and 2 is far, far greater than 2 and 3. in fact, I think I may actually want to see Lemon in an A’s uniform.
My preference of seeing in an A's uniform
1. Chan Ho Park
2. Drew Meyer
3. Sammy Sosa
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Prospect reviews
This process reveals I’m a doubting Thomas on prospects, which is another way of saying I have a scoutingless, all-numbers POV. I want evidence.
Seeing Ross and Lemon personally, I’d probably de emphasize numbers, and go more on gut (mine I mean).
Your Vegas scenario, while also clever, relies on scare tactics. For all I know, Ross is the next RA Dickey and nothing to worry about losing.
I mean you got to admit, none of us really knows the state of Robbie Ross’s connective tissue.
This really is how I look at LSB rankings. Which isn’t to say hearing BA et al rave about a HS lefty in our system isn’t a warm-fuzzy.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Dec 6, 2008 9:34 PM CST up reply actions
I'm split over Diamond and Wieland
I’m still not sure I get this Robbie Ross hype. Not hatin’ on him, but what makes him significantly better than Diamond or Wieland (aside from the fact that Ross was second round (could’ve been first) and Wieland was 4th)? Like I said in the previous thread, I think MJH has a good point on Ross’s mechanics/pitches/size/future durability. As a Scott Kazmir fan, count me among those that think that spinning a sharp slider can be detrimental to arm health.
Getting back to Diamond/Wieland… yeah. I’m trying to decide if Wieland’s advanced maturity and potential, combined with the TJ shadow are enough to outweigh what I think a healthy Diamond could accomplish in 2009. Ugh… tough decision.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Ross
He was considered a first round talent, and the Rangers gave him first round money.
Diamond is 25 at the beginning of the season, hasn’t gotten past AA, walks a ton of guys, and there appear to be questions about his breaking stuff.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 6, 2008 9:11 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah
I’m feeling/hoping for a big year from Diamond though. The breaking ball is the key, if he brings back the same one that he found this year and can spin it with any kind of consistency I really think he could be nasty. But admittedly, those walks could be the difference between a hit or a big miss for Diamond if the breaking ball regresses/proves uncontrollable. Bottom line is, it’s a make or break year for him.
The safe pick here is obviously Wieland – but looking at the results so far, it looks like Diamond has a chance to win while Wieland doesn’t, so since I can’t really make up my mind I’m just going to try and make my vote make a difference by voting Diamond here. Part of me kind of wants to lump all the 2008 draftees in 1-2-3 order on my mental list anyway.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by LSJ on Dec 6, 2008 9:45 AM CST up reply actions
Well not the pitch itself
What I mean is if he can’t throw it for strikes. He was pretty erratic this year, in what little time he got to pitch.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by LSJ on Dec 6, 2008 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
The control is almost always the last thing to come back after returning from TJ surgery.
Honestly this season was just about getting back out on the mound and throwing again. Getting some innings under his belt. Next spring is gonna be the real test for Sir Thomas.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 6, 2008 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
but if he didnt have control in the first place
does it still come back?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on Dec 6, 2008 12:52 PM CST up reply actions
I think he had it before, so I can't answer that question.
He’s never gonna be Robert Alan Tewksbury, but I think he can come back strong and put up bb9’s in the 3-3.5 range.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
so do you think if he comes back healthy hes a better prospect than hurley?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
Hmmm... Certainly in the same class.
Though I know where you’re going with this, Hurley-hater ;)
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
haha
well if he comes back healthy he shoudl be in our top 10 next year…right? lol
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
It's kind of a Catch-22 there.
Cause if a guy with his raw stuff puts it together and performed to the point where he’d be a top 10 guy in our system next Winter, he’d be good enough to warrant too much big league time in ‘09 to be eligible for next Winter’s list.
But, yes, I think he has the arm to be a top 10 caliber pitcher in ’09 and beyond.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
YES!
Without a doubt. When Hurley gets two plus off-speed pitches, give me a call.
Neftali Feliz is not a swimmer.
Wow
If i didn’t know anything about Diamond, I would think he is a big time bust.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Well
not a bust in the sense of Drew Meyer. I’ve far from given up on him, he’s just 2 years behind schedule due to something that is out of his hands.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Before his injury
his prospect status was plummeting. You can’t attribute his failure thus far exclusively to his injury. When guys – especially college guys – hit a wall in AA, some of them eventually recover, but it’s a really bad sign, generally speaking. And to have such a high draft pick do it was disappointing. Even Drew Meyer hit .321/.372/.417 in AA in 2005, the equivalent of 2007 for Diamond. He wasn’t on his way to doing the equivalent of that.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 7, 2008 12:52 AM CST up reply actions
His walk rate was moderately okay before he started pitching hurt.
And he has the stuff to miss bats.
Now that he’s finally healthy again I think the guy is gonna surprise some people in, erm, Surprise. (Sorry about that.)
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 6, 2008 10:05 AM CST up reply actions
He was considered a first round talent, and the Rangers gave him first round money.
Diamond is 25 at the beginning of the season, hasn’t gotten past AA, walks a ton of guys, and there appear to be questions about his breaking stuff.
and is coming off TJ surgery so who knows what were going to get from him + was hurt last year again
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on Dec 6, 2008 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
Diamond
then Ross.
I had a paper route when I was a kid. I was supposed to go to 2,000 houses. Or two dumpsters.
For me
The next tough decision would be Robbie Ross vs. Murphy. I think I’d put Ross over Murphy since Murphy is still new to pitching, but both you and MJH seemed pretty high on him…
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by LSJ on Dec 6, 2008 9:22 AM CST up reply actions
Murphy
The kid is just mean on the mound. He doesn’t like hitters. He doesn’t respect them. His stuff got better as the year progressed. His fastball was in the upper 80s most of the season and was in the low 90s, hitting 93 a few times in the fall. I think his curve is his best pitch. It’s a good pitch.
You know if T. Murphy and Wieland are really already showing as much drippey, oozey goodness this fast after the draft then we really drafted the shit out of the '08 draft.
3rd and 4th rounders aren’t supposed to show themselves as being as good as we’re painting these guys, at least not this fast.
Let’s hope it’s that we’re the world’s best drafters and not that we’re just infatuated the new guys cause of the new car smell.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 6, 2008 10:08 AM CST up reply actions
We should have drafted more pitching
/steal home
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
fuck justin smoak
we should have taken josh fields!
/stevoo
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
"If I go to this "party", I will give "save us" a piece of my knuckle sandwich…" -- miles
by knockoutking on Dec 6, 2008 12:52 PM CST up reply actions
Jparks...
Do you think that Murphy will stay as a starter or eventually move to the pen? I know that is a tough question to answer right now.
by Michael Cave on Dec 6, 2008 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
Good question
Honestly, I’m not sure. I think he has the stuff to stick in a rotation, but his skill set seems tailor made for the pen (short memory, exceptional pick-off move, two above-average pitches, bulldog mentality).
Murphy doesn’t seem to have a preference. He just knows he’s going to be a major league pitcher someday. If I had to guess, I’d say he remains in the rotation for ’09, but eventually moves into the pen at the major league level.
JW
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Not Johnny Whittleman, but Joseph Wieland.. something about this guy.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Yup, he's pretty handsome alright
Kinda reminds me of me, only without the glasses.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
You know, there are several different ways of looking at prospects.
Tell me which one you think fits your brain best:
1. The chances that a player simply makes it to the major leagues.
JMJ will probably play in the show, but will he be any good?
2. The chances of that player adding wins to a major league club.
If Blalock had stayed healthy, he could have been much more valuable.
3. The chances that the player serves a key role in making the playoffs.
Rusty, Juan, Pudge, McLemore, Palmeiro …
4. The chances of reaching a certain level of service time. Free agency perhaps.
McCarthy? Is Ross going to suffer the same scap-loading fate?
5. The chances of a player reaching a high level of value relative to his position on the
field. This one hurts Maximiliano quite a bit.
6. From Newberg: Which player would you least like to see transfer to the A’s or
Angels? Or fill in the name of the team you hate the most.
7. What about player cost vs player value. Or even how many fans that player
puts in the stands. An owner would have to think about this one.
"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer
1, 5, and 6
for me. But I’d say it more simply, how high is the ceiling, with a 2nd question, how likely is he to reach it?
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Thoughts on 1...
With so much variability regarding what a prospect will become, I started thinking about the likelihood of making the Major Leagues. In the LSB Community Prospect Project #8 vote, Martin Perez ran away with 149 votes. The thing is that Perez played all of his games in 2008 for Spokane in the Northwest League.
There are four levels of professional of professional baseball between where Perez played this past season and the Major Leagues. And while he played well in 2008, especially for someone who wouldn’t be old enough to vote had he been born in the United States, there’s a lot of ways for him to not make it. So, I started asking myself, ’what’s the likelihood that Perez doesn’t make the Major Leagues at all?’ I guessed 25%, although that seems a little low. Then I looked back to that number 8 vote and noticed that Joaquin “The Machine” Arias (nickname doesn’t seem to have stuck) didn’t get a single vote. And now that we’re voting on #19, it doesn’t look like Arias will be picked for, at the very least, few more votes. The thing is, though, that Arias has already played baseball in the Major Leagues. If Arias goes at, let’s say, #25, then at the very least, there’s a 25% chance that the LSB’s #25 selection will have a better Major League career than the #8 prospect.
Suicide is a permanent solution to a temporary problem, huh? Didn't you just say that suicide doesn't solve anybody's problems?
Diamond
We’re judging him based off his very worst, which leads me to think that he’s on the upswing. MJH says he’s got a curve working now, and he’s always been a fan of Diamond’s other two pitches. Plus he’s the closest to the majors out of all the guys getting votes right now (assuming they’d pull Diamond up before Hunter, which seems reasonable).
I might have to vote Diamond a few more times, and that makes me sad all day. Otherwise I’d go with Hunter next, then Moreland, and then get into the Wieland/Ross/Murphy troika.
Diamond's curve
BA’s 08 profile on him suggested that he threw a curve until 06 “when his long arm action caused him to abandon it in favor of a promising slider, 82-83mph.” MJH suggested the curve is new but at least according to BA he appears to have returned to the curve which was his third pitch until 06.
unfortunately
unless he gets his fastball back, and learns to truly command it, I don’t think all the secondary stuff is going to matter much.
Don't believe the hype about sloppy seconds. They ain't bad.
+1
This is an exciting time in my life.
The LSB CPP's are in full bloom.
by inactive lsb user on Dec 6, 2008 11:39 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not judging him based on his very worst
I’m judging him based on his entire tenure at AA, where he hit a developmental wall long before he started pitching hurt.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 6, 2008 6:36 PM CST up reply actions
Hunter for me
Give him a full year in AAA next season where he can develop his change-up and the Rangers have a guaranteed solid back of the rotation innings eater.
These next few votes are tough. There’s Ross, Lemon, Madrigal, Wieland, and Murphy to consider. I also think Golson should go soon. And also with some of the guys on here, I’d like to see Jared Hyatt added to the list maybe a few rankings from now. I’m going to jump on that bandwagon early!
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
If T-Murph
can stick as a starter (and if Hunter can too for that matter) I like his upside better than Hunters, and hes a lefty to boot. I’ve got them 17 and 18 respectively. IT seems to be about the change up for them both however.
Ross
Right now, in this stage, I’m looking at the prospect that excites me the most this year, and than player is Ross, followed by Wieland
In Smoak We Trust
I know it goes without saying
but our 11-20 matches up favorably with a lot of top 10s out there.
that is neat.
i think our #19 matches up favorably with other teams' #1's out there!
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
mainly the Astros and some other team that I won't name
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
yeah, i was being silly
sorry for not being more clear.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
im tempted to put
Weiland/Ross/Murphy ahead of Diamond/Hunter, i guess its that new shiny thing vs. old proven, but defective thing…. I also just get a really good vibe from Weiland and Murphy, they really seem to be high quality pitchers with a really good idea of what to do and can also miss bats. Meanwhile Ross was practically a late first round pick and has a very similar profile and pedigree to that of KK coming out.
Can anyone convince me otherwise?
I'm more than tempted
I’m ranking those three ahead of Diamond/Hunter personally. Hunter’s ceiling is not that high and Diamond hit a wall in AA and now is trying to come back from multiple injuries.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Same here
Obviously a gamble to go with newly drafted guys who haven’t played at high levels, but they look like very solid prospects, all three of them.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 6, 2008 8:51 PM CST up reply actions
If you want to vote that way, that's fine
but calling Diamond and Hunter old and proven isn’t really accurate. First, Diamond is just old and not proven. Second, Hunter isn’t old (a year older than Murphy) and really isn’t that proven, but just is more of a sure thing to contribute to the Major League team in some way.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Hunter
Yeah, calling Hunter old is very mistaken. He won’t be 23 until July 3 next year, meaning half his year will be spent in AAA at the age of 22.
I never thought I would say this
but our list seems VERY VERY Pitching heavy…
Never thought I would get to say that…
Thanks for stopping by Joe
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
What we've learned tonight
When you put the number sign and six (or maybe another numeral as well, I don’t know) together, the site takes that as 1. and a tab.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 6, 2008 9:12 PM CST up reply actions
Click on that "formatting guide" link.
It happens when you forget to type the number.
Example:
- first stuff
- second stuff
Neftali Feliz is not a swimmer.
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