Something on Moscoso
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 2:56 AM CST
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PrintI don't know that this was great value, but I'm honestly a little excited that we're getting this guy. I think he's better than people realize, and I think, although he's obviously a different style of pitcher, he has a bit of Masterson in him, in that, one way or another, I think he can help your pitching staff. His stuff is solid, despite what a few reports have suggested, and I'm really not sure why so many are hung up on his age. He didn't even pitch in America until he was 21, and from 2007 to 2008 he's moved from GCL to AA and pitched quite well at each stop, primarily as a starter.
Anyway, remember Kevin Goldstein's post a few months ago about his simple formula to judge dominance in pitching prospects - and more specifically, the ability to miss bats?
Just to review, here were his top five pitchers at missing bats last season:
1. Madison Bumgarner: +32 at Low-A (141.2-111-21-164); MBR: 0.23
2. Tommy Hanson: +23 at High-A (40-15-11-49); +3 at Double-A (98-70-41-114); MBR: 0.19,
3. Neftali Feliz: +23 at Low-A (82-55-28-106); -10 at Double-A (45.1-34-23-47); MBR: 0.10
4. Wilkins De La Rosa: +11 at Low-A (90.1-60-39-110); -2 at High-A (16.1-12-5-15); MBR: 0.08
5. Trevor Cahill: +21 at High-A (87.1-52-31-103); -10 at Double-A (37-24-19-33); MBR: 0.08
To summarize, the five best pitchers had MBR ratios ranging from from 0.23 to 0.08. Well, Moscoso only pitched 87 innings, so he was just shy of the 100 inning minimum that Goldstein set. But check him out:
Guillermo Moscoso (cumulative): +41, 0.47
He blew them away. He was basically the best pitcher in the minors last year at missing bats.
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Jon Daniels needs to stop using the back end of the minor league roster of my sim team for targets. I can’t believe how many prospects he’s targeted are guys I’ve had (and we are talking about a 30 team league, so no watering down):
Max Ramirez
Engel Beltre
Elvis Andrus
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Neftali Feliz
Guillermo Moscoso
Armando Galarraga
He’s traded for about as many prospects off of my roster as ones who weren’t. Copy cat.
And spursdynasty will like this
Baseball Cube’s scores for him this season:
Scouting Report
Control: 98
K-Rating: 97
Efficiency: 100
wow
that definitely changes my perception… thanks for the clarification
you can’t go wrong with a dude who has the best ability in the minors to miss bats… another nice find by junior
by Baseball North on Dec 8, 2008 3:09 AM CST up reply actions
Man...
this is like a Sharky diary. Only it makes sense. Can you respond to yourself a few more times?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
You know
I think I’m developing my first LSB pet peeve – which is when diary authors put stuff in the comment section that could’ve gone in the diary. The edit button is conveniently placed, folks.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by LSJ on Dec 8, 2008 3:16 AM CST up reply actions
Well
as I said, the comment about my sim team is something that I know that almost no one would be interested in, so I didn’t want to put it in the diary. Could have put the cube thing in there I guess, though.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 3:18 AM CST up reply actions
Yah
I’m not really targeting you specifically, I’m just saying – I keep seeing folks do similar things, and all I can think is “edit button, edit button”. Dunno why that bugs me (although it probably has something to do with the fact that I usually have to correct a lot of typos after I post, and therefore use the edit button a lot).
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by LSJ on Dec 8, 2008 3:21 AM CST up reply actions
Hah
I had a miscellany of thoughts, but they didn’t really go together, so I just figured I’d put the other two as comments.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 3:16 AM CST up reply actions
Z, T-ball
where would you guys situate this kid in the system rankings? I’m thinking around 19ish….
Seems fair
I might go a little more mid-teens, but yeah, in that range.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 9:20 AM CST up reply actions
In our current rankings
I’d slot him about 15, just ahead of Kiker if I’m feeling optimistic about his health.
I’m kind of psyched about Melo, too. Yet another young Latin guy that seems promising. I’ll be interested to see what scouting tidbits trickle out over the next few days about him.
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BA top 10 Chat said:
Carlos Melo, RHSP — He turned 17 during the DSL season and has an explosive fastball at 92-96 mph. He also has the makings of a good curveball and change.
I wouldn't
write that radar reading in stone. I don’t trust a radar reading until I see it multiple times from multiple unbiased sources.
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DSL radar:
a plane crash waiting to happen
Cheer up even more
Durrett over at the DMN blog quotes a Tigers rep that he throws up to 96.
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Well... do you want the coal back?
I mean, I could use it to barbecue or something… Maybe I’ll donate it to a train station.
thats a pretty wide range
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
his numbers look awesome
two things to ask about him though:
Does his fly ball tendecy scare you? He’s given up his fair share of homers, and thats definitely worrisome in our park. However the fact that he misses so many bats really helps him there.
Is he a starter or a reliever? I think he can be valueable either way, but obviously more valueable if he’s a good starter. His injuries make this real questionable. He seems to have the makeup to stay as a starter, and i think his stuff is probably alot better than some of the starters we’ve run out there over the years.
We’ll see, but i do agree, he’s certaintly being overlooked b/c of his age, otherwise we’d be whorshiping JD for this one. We’ll see if the age catches up to him, but like you said he really has pitched as much as a 21 yr old latin signing would have pitched by the time he reached AA or maybe even less. He’s been hurt for a whole year and out of states til 21.
I also really like the throw in JD got. A real young, raw arm that can bring it upwards of 90 at 17… You know one of these throw in guys JD keeps getting is gonna hit the lottery.
Fly balls: It scares me more in Arlington than it did in Detroit, that’s for sure.
And I don’t know if he’s a starter. I think that Detroit thought he might be a starter for them, though.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 3:19 AM CST up reply actions
speaking of these throw-ins
I see that Detroit has quite a few players who are currently playing only in the DR. Does anyone have a link or a list of players the Rangers currently have under contract who are not in the states? Perhaps a list of just the most notable players who could possibly be projectable or considered future prospects?
I’m in a couple of different ones, but the one I’m referring to, my favorite one, and the one I take most seriously is this one: http://www.ibcleague.com/portal.php
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 3:24 AM CST up reply actions
Is that a 14 and under keeper league?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
You killed it!
That one above was the one I used to always go on about, btw.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 3:27 AM CST up reply actions
lol yeah I remember. If I was interested in joining, how would I go about that? Do I need to wait for a team to open up?
Yeah I can mention you the next time there’s an opening. There actually hasn’t been one in about 15 months, though.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 3:34 AM CST up reply actions
how do
holland, feliz, main, et al. do in the missed bats metric?
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Dec 8, 2008 4:23 AM CST reply actions
Do the math
K’s minus baserunners, divided by innings pitched.
Feliz is already listed above, lazy reader.
Holland was +16, 0.11, which ranks right up there, so I’m not sure why he wasn’t ranked. Main didn’t have nearly enough innings, but he was +0 over 58.2 IP.
I haven’t looked at that rate for a lot of players, but it should tell us something that the best pitchers in the minors have rates that are just barely positive, and Goldstein says in his article that no major league ERA qualifier had a positive number this year (Lincecum was -1).
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lol
dont know how i missed that
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Dec 8, 2008 7:44 AM CST up reply actions
buchholz didnt pitch a perfect game
just merely a no-hitter
by dustinvandeman on Dec 8, 2008 8:34 AM CST up reply actions
Well, now we can really tell Theo to kiss our ass then, eh?
Heh-heh.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by LSJ on Dec 8, 2008 8:38 AM CST up reply actions
I couldn't feel good about the Laird deal on paper.
This is genuine encouragement on Moscoso.
Go Strangers.
if you just look at it on paper
Laird is a poor hitting catcher with good defensive skills. Lets not hold up Laird in too high of a regard.
Moscoso has a lot of movement on his pitches which is why he would lead this list of missed bats.
A catcher had to be dealt, now we can let Ramirez play in AAA and have Salty and TT in the majors. Or Salty in AAA with TT and Max sharing time. I would say you alternate catching and DH.
Also, why not turn this pitching prospect + blalock in an attempt to get Sanchez from the Giants. Still probably unlikely.
Wait 'til the year after next
Just think as well
Moscoso missed a full year because of TJ surgery, and now is just getting back on track. Saw a lot of Tiger fans hating this trade because they think Moscoso could be in the majors by the end of the season, and that they were selling low on him
In Smoak We Trust
after further review
not a bad trade. the catcher we held with the least value netted us two pitching prospects.
Based on what I am reading Moscoso may be ready to show up in the majors this year if not next. Now, i’m not sure if he’ll be a starter or reliever, but apparently he doesn’t like being a reliever. That happens with most starters.
Melo – does some1 have a scouting report on him other than he throws well over 90?
Wait 'til the year after next
an addendum to the Detroit Free Press article
from last night says he throws at 93-96 (he won’t turn 18 until February!) with a developing curveball and change. That makes 2 more curveballers in the system with him and Moscoso.
Anytime
someone touches 96 at 17 (Font got to 98, but whos counting) I’m intrigued. Couple that with even a mentioning of his other pitches and I’m on board.
We should see him in rookie ball
next year so we will get a chance to hear a lot more about him sooner rather than later.
i get that the kid had an amazing season last year
but it was in the minors and we also know his stuff is good not great (from scouting reports).
Point is I can’t put so much stock in the success of one shortened season. Definitely a good pickup but it’s not like we snagged a top tier pitching prospect
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Yeah
I wouldn’t dispute that. As I said, while both arms are intriguing to some degree, I’m a little underwhelmed.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 9:41 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, he barely cracked the top 10 of a bad Detroit system
Couple that with the shoulder issues, and…meh.
Nah, noob.
by Brian Thomas on Dec 8, 2008 10:00 AM CST up reply actions
To be fair
I think he was underranked by a few spots.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 10:08 AM CST up reply actions
The shoulder issue...
…is probably why he was at #10.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 8, 2008 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
Why is this kid pitching winter
ball his first year back after TJ surgery and missing the first 6 weeks of the season with soreness…mind-boggling
after TJ surgery
your arm is invincible. near bionic.
W: "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
by hubcityraider on Dec 8, 2008 10:17 AM CST up reply actions
Well...
Guys who have missed a lot of time often will pitch winter ball because of that fact…I know the AFL is often used for guys who missed time during the season due to injury.
He’s 25, and doesn’t have many innings under his belt…if he can’t stand up to pitching out of the pen a little down there, given how few innings he’s pitched, I think he’s going to have a hard time staying healthy anyway.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 8, 2008 10:23 AM CST up reply actions
Melo...
I knew Moscoso was a secondary piece :)
I’m glad to see he’s got something really good going with his fastball. It makes me a little more patient in judging the deal, which I initially thought was way too little return.
The Rangers turned frankfranKKKK into a reliever and he exploded at AA. It will be very interesting to see if the Rangers keep him in the rotation. I would expect them to, even if it is to keep develop his arm strength and feel for pitches in anticipation of a bullpen position in the future.
Think about how that Frisco rotation is shaping up. Three guys that are very good at missing bats compared to all minor leaguers will be there. Thomas Diamond might be the 5th starter at Frisco with the talent influx.
Go Rangers!
i may be wrong
but i think Holland will start in AAA. And if i had my way, Diamond would start in the OKC bullpen. He would mean much more to this team as a dominant late inning guy than a middling starter prospect.
As far as Moscoso, it seems like a lot of people think he should remain a starter. He’ll probably start in Frisco with the intention of moving him quickly, similar to Harrison last year.
I'm having a bit of a hard time finding rotation spots
for the full season clubs. There will be some attrition, so that is likely to alleviate it, but on paper right now, there are more than 20 decent candidates:
Tommy Hunter
Eric Hurley (or Harrison, I suppose, if Hurley beats him out but doesn’t beat out of options Feldman out)
Derek Holland*
Jared Hyatt
Luis Mendoza
middle of the road guys – Elizardo Ramirez, Michael Ballard, Doug Mathis
Neftali Feliz
Guillermo Moscoso
Omar Poveda
Kasey Kiker
Thomas Diamond
Michael Schlact
Michael Main
Blake Beavan
Kennil Gomez
Tim Murphy*
Evan Reed
Michael Kirkman*
Neil Ramirez
Martin Perez*
Carlos Pimentel
Wilfredo Boscan
Robbie Ross
Joeseph Wieland
Kyle O’Campo
Fabio Castillo
Richard Bleier
As we’ve talked about the Low A will probably sort itself out a little with the draftees probably getting a delayed start. But that’s a lot of valid starters to mix in, without a void anywhere like they had this year in AA to start the season.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 9:55 AM CST up reply actions
hyatt?
and i don’t know about splitting up holland and feliz
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
You don't think Hyatt deserves a rotation spot somewhere?
Even though there are gaps there to help separate the high from the low, I’m not so much projecting levels as I am looking at the overall quantity. There are only 20 rotation spots available in April.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 10:07 AM CST up reply actions
I think he profiles as a reliever
Do you think Hyatt profiles as a major league starter on a good club?
No I personally don't tend to think so (the starter one)
I’m more going on what I suspect the Rangers think there. I wouldn’t be bothering with rotation spots for any of Hyatt, Ballard, Ramirez, those types, unless there are openings. But you know how Adair just loved him, and I’m sure Servais and some of the others still in the organization have a lot of respect for him as well. And he did start all last season, with a good deal of success in AA/AAA.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
Yes I recall the high praise that Adair had for him
But that was for his moxie, mound presence, baseball intelligence and professionalism, which profiles well in whatever role he pitches
crowded
I’m thinking that they will have to go to a 6 man rotation and start a few out in the bullpen in A+/A levels.
Here is my surmise:
AAA
hunter, hurley, mendoza,diamond, (vet retread like Jennings)
Schlact, Hyatt, ballard, mathis, and Murray to the bullpen
AA
feliz, poveda, holland, kiker, moscoso, Reed (I think he ends up in the bullpen but remains a starter for the first half to see if he figures it out); phillips to pen
A+
Main, beavan, kirkman, TMurph, gomez, Castillo (until he proves he can’t start)
Swanson to pen
A
perez, boscan, ramirez, pimentel, Miggie, Ocampo, Brigham, Font, Bleier (likely to the bullpen)
A-
wieland, J. grullon, G. Grullon, Ross, Henry (and draft picks)
Wilkins to pen
AZL
Ahn, A.Mendoza, K. de leon, Thompson, E. Rijo, Melo (and draft picks)
DSL
Escobar, Batista (and FA signings)
Drooooooool
That’s a great logjam of talent to have on hand in the A ball levels. I kind of doubt Font starts out in full season ball given his lack of innings last year.
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Yeah
I think, as Z suggested, you will see staggered starts throughout the low levels to accomodate injuries, control innings and wait for open spots (keeping folks in extended, starting them off in the bullpen). I think my list presumes the level that they are capable (and merit) starting off in but there are only enough slots without releasing a bunch of relief pitchers thorughout the system. It is the most desireable juggling act that you could possibly have that is for sure!
and by June you will
see the standard promotions shake things up a bit
Promotions
yes, next summer will probably be just as fluid and exciting as this past one was.
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And we might have the usual
“is wilmer font dead” speculation when he fails to materialize by June
Font?
Unless my illiteracy is coming back it looks like you left off Font. Where does he fit in your list?
I'd lean toward
projecting him in Spokane during the summer after some more extended spring time. He barely pitched this year. He could go to Hickory, but it’s so crowded and I assume can be a little cold in the spring.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
Ross
I think Ross is short-season, but I may be giving into the small-physique typecast there.
Hickory may also continue doing some tandem-starting.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Dec 8, 2008 10:33 AM CST up reply actions
Only reason would be
to save him innings and avoi the cold (and those are solid reasons and ones that the Rangers have used before). All indications are that he’d be ready for that level.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 11:00 AM CST up reply actions
Its just so beautiful...
All those pitchers….some of whom are really good….I love this problem
In Smoak We Trust
Seriously though
He does look like a pretty significant part of the package.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 10:09 AM CST up reply actions
From Aaron Fitt's chat
Melo, to me, is the real prize of the Laird trade. Our international guru, Ben Badler, tells me Melo has a 95-96 mph fastball and a very high ceiling. You know he must — not many Dominican Summer League players are involved in trades.
He doesn’t think a whole lot of Moscoso, though that sounds like it’s based on pretty old info.
yes it seems old
but I do like the DSL comment: Can anyone recall a trade for a DSL guy?
Holy Crap!
Yeah, I’m a little late to the party here…but DAMN if reading this morning’s NMLR didn’t get me fired up about this young pitcherman!
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
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