Kevin Goldstein Q&A: Part 2
by jparks77 on Dec 8, 2008 8:07 AM CST
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Esteemed Baseball Prospectus author Kevin Goldstein, widely regarded as one of the foremost experts in the field of prospect evaluation, was generous enough to devote some of his valuable time to answering reader-submitted questions pertaining to the Texas Rangers' electric minor league system late last week.
Read on for Goldstein's takes on Engel Beltre and Michael Main, as well as his sleeper breakout candidate for '09. His answer is going to surprise you.
Goldstein on whether or not Engel Beltre's ugly K/BB ratio will spell doomsday for him as a prospect:
Strikeouts to walks are not in the tools. They are not tools. He's a five-tool prospect. [Greg] Golson is a five-tool prospect. The problem is that [Beltre] has such a bad approach. It's a huge red flag. Beltre will swing at anything. There is no question about it. It's going to have to get refined or he's going to turn into Golson. But if he has one thing on his side, it's time. He was just so young in '08, playing in full-season ball, and he clearly belonged on a talent level. He's never going to be Rickey Henderson and draw 100 walks a year, but obviously he needs to become more selective or it's going to be a problem.
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Matt Thompson?
Interesting. Cant say that I know much about him honestly. Jparks can you shed some light on him or at least lead me to a couple places that have a good writeup?
I think JP mapped out his pitches
during instructs and he was sitting at 88-91 (less than advertised, as the scouting reports had him at 90-93) with a few curveballs and no changeups (during his side session). All in all, not all that impressive – he has a lot of work to do.
Thompson
From Jason Cole: http://rangers.scout.com/2/763805.html (premium content)
From my FIL report: http://www.bbtia.com/home/2008/10/11/rangers-fall-instructional-league-report-part-ii.html
Like Goldstein points out, Thompson has a pro body, but I wasn’t overly impressed when I saw him in Arizona. His curve was very good, but his heater was average. Snapshot analysis, though.
Thanks guys!
So do you think Goldstein’s belief is more based on his natural projectability (that he would improve anywhere based on his God-given ability and own work ethic) or that he has confidence the Rangers development staff will nurture that natural talent into something tangible?
Ugh.
I hate the A’s so much.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 8, 2008 9:03 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Yep
That Inoa answer kinda ruined my morning.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
Yup
My first reaction after reading that (nice work Jason btw) was something along the lines of “Fuck Oakland”.
Maybe we should have raised a stink over that
After all.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
by LSJ on Dec 8, 2008 9:45 AM CST up reply actions
Goldstein on Inoa
His answer originally featured more in-depth analysis and even his exact ranking in the A’s system. I decided to exclude this information in order to keep his premium content…..well, premium.
If any of you want to hear more of Goldstein’s thoughts on Inoa, drop me an IM or email.
Well, if he ranked him
near Feliz and Holland that tells me all I need to know.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Dropped you a line
I’m curious.
"Somewhere out there, between 14-32 BBWAA NL MVP voters are trying to get cheaper winter heating by drilling a hole in the microwave." - Jeff at LoL
Sent.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
There are two kinds of men in this world: Men who make jump throws, and men who wish that they were Derek Jeter so that they could make jump throws.
by thedirkatron on Dec 8, 2008 11:55 AM CST up reply actions
I'm curious
but I would rather not ruin my morning by finding out :D
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Me too
and what further exacerbates it for me is that normally I would think it is okay we have the money to outbid them on a FA or two but that doesnt seem to be the case now. I just hate that we have the best system in baseball along with THEM. I just wish it could be any other team besides them. The West is shaping up to be highly competitive throughout the next several years. The A’s have a great system and is usually a well run org. The Angels can spend spend spend and do an admirable job of developing their own talent (saunders, santana, lackey make up quite a formidable young rotation). The mariners are kind of a joke right now but they seem to be making some good hires at least. Gonna be a tough division to win the next few years.
Sorry....
I asked the question… I still get mad thinking about a Feliz/Holland/Inoa/Main/Perez rotation in 5 years… oh well i’ll take the 4 we have, it’ll all work out, what goes around comes around
amazing interview
seriously. puts everything into perspective. I suggest a ton of people on this site read it in full.
Stuff about attrition rates and expectations of the club overall is gold.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Great read.
I had a paper route when I was a kid. I was supposed to go to 2,000 houses. Or two dumpsters.
The Clash
It’s interesting that he thinks Sandinista is their best work. I think it’s a seriously underrated album with some forgotten classics (Sounds of the Sinners, Police on my Back, the Magnificent Seven, the Call Up, Junco Partner, Lose this Skin, several more). Still, London Calling is arguably the greatest rock and roll album of all time, so I think I’d have to go with it, then their first one, then Sandinista (although their best song, Straight to Hell, was on Combat Rock).
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
wow. cool stuff.
im a big clash fan.
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
right on
Definitely check out Sandinista if you haven’t already. Not guaranteeing you’ll dig the whole thing, but I will guarantee that you’ll find a couple songs on there that you’ll love.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
Surprised to see that as well.
Love some tunes from Sandinista, but its hard for double albums to not have some kind of flaw. London Calling is so compact and amazingly-awesome its basically a slam dunk pick. With S/T if you want to have street cred.
I had a paper route when I was a kid. I was supposed to go to 2,000 houses. Or two dumpsters.
Triple
Actually Sandinista was a triple album (i.e. six sides of vinyl). There’s enough excellent cuts on it to make a great single album, but not enough for my tastes to make a double album equal to London Calling. I would add Washington Bullets, Charlie Don’t Surf, One More Time/One More Dub among others to several of the tracks mention by trza to make a killer single album.
Washington Bullets/One More Time
Can’t believe I left those off.
Also, my fellow Clash fans who haven’t seen it, check out The Future is Unwritten, a bio about Joe Strummer that came out about a year ago. It’s really good.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
You don't encounter true genius very often in this life,
Still, London Calling is arguably the greatest rock and roll album of all time,
but this is one of them for sure. If you haven’t heard it, I genuinely feel sorry for you.
"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer
Interesting interview
Good to see that he very much likes our system and almost compares it to the Rays system over the past couple of the years. Seems high on Main, I like it.
Did like the comment about Beltre. Could be an MVP, or could never see the majors.
And, finally, him telling us not to trade our prospects to try and get an ace. He wants us to stay course and see what we got out of our guys. Hey, we got the top system in baseball, might as well see what they got
In Smoak We Trust
I think that
the whole trading a set of elite pitching prospects for one of the established front rotation guys that come along periodically is a question of timing and opportunity. Are you in a position that it’s just what you need? Do you have a particular arm that the other team covets? And is that team, along with the market, at a point where you can get on the positive end of the value scale?
Whatever you think of Peavy, it looks like whoever trades for him is going to get a nice value because SD’s determination to deal him and the limited market as a result of his control of the situation. Same went for Johan Santana.
If those factors work in your favor, it’s probably going to be an excellent idea. If there isn’t a beneficial situation, and you’re looking to create your own opportunity, you’re probably going to make a very risky deal.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 8, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
Can't wait for the day that the Rangers are part of a limited market established by a pitcher.
Maybe Greinke will be that guy.
Go Rangers!
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