Botts Projection FanPost

by ab03 on Mar 24, 2008 12:51 PM CDT Comment 48 comments

people are going nuts so far with incredibly optimistic projections. I didn't realize so many people were so high on him

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Maybe not

Bill James, ZIPS, and Chone all project him at .795 OPS or higher. I think he'll be solid but not spectacular if they get him enough at bats. With his patience he should get on base somewhere north of .350. I'm afraid his power will disappoint, though.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 24, 2008 12:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The only Botts prediction that matters

is PA's.

I'm guessing he doesn't break 100 with us this year.

Jason Botts PWNS.

by thedirkatron on Mar 24, 2008 1:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Dirkatron

I noticed you have invested in Bottsy's Baseball-reference.com page. I hope that proves to be fruitful.

And with the 22nd overall selection the Dallas Cowboys select Jonathan Stewart.

by TheBZA on Mar 24, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope so too

I've kind of put all of my eggs into that basket. If that investment doesn't pan out, it's back to living in the streets for me:(

Jason Botts PWNS.

by thedirkatron on Mar 24, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I gave a horrible projection

I see an ops just over .700 and a little over 120 ABs.

I think he has to play regularly to be good. And I don't think he'll ever get to play regularly in Texas. This isn't Washington or JDs fault, its Botts's for being essentially limited to DH as a young player.

by JBImaknee on Mar 24, 2008 1:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Botts needs consistent

ABs. He won't get it unless Broussard falls flat on his face.

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby

by RangerMad on Mar 24, 2008 1:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

that

seems, to me, like a pretty good chance of happening

* "You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there." - Yogi Berra (looks like he might have been thinking about the Rangers)

by camartin44 on Mar 24, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

With Bradley

starting out at DH at the beginning of the year, I guess he won't see much time for awhile.

Once Bradley is back in RF, I guess that is when he gets a look.

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 1:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

.275/.370/.540???

This is nuts. .540 SLG%? That is almost 60 points higher than his career MiLB slg% and over 200 points higher than his career major league slg %. Wow. Gots to love Spring optimism.

lepricon

by jparks77 on Mar 24, 2008 1:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I was obviously not thinking when I wrote

a .522 slg% either. i guess it was wishful thinking. Around .475 is closer

* "You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there." - Yogi Berra (looks like he might have been thinking about the Rangers)

by camartin44 on Mar 24, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What Ive noticed.

This sites obseessive nature towards power hitting offensive players, and a hate towards fast OBP players.

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 1:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What fast OBP players

have we hated on?

And dear God don't say Ruddy Yan.

Jason Botts PWNS.

by thedirkatron on Mar 24, 2008 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which fast High OBP players

have we hated on? My problem with most of the fast guys I've seen in our system is that they are low OBP fast players.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on Mar 24, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm

not really talking about specific players. But the mindset about this offense, and against small ball.

Reluctancy to bring these type of players in and incorparate these types of players in the system.

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you'd find

folks extremely receptive to a 400 OBP guy who stole 80% of the time.

The problem we see is we hear about these hyped fast guys, and you look at their stats, and they have 320 OBPs, and the successfully steal 60% of the time.

I just think that, in general, fast guys are usually the most overrated players in baseball. I see a lot of one tool guys (speed) get hyped up as 5 tool guys, and I have no idea why that is.

Speed without fielding, base awareness, or the ability to get on base is useless.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on Mar 24, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Thats true.

Hope Borbon is as good as the Rangers organization thinks he is...

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

there are very few fast obp players around

by DSheppard on Mar 24, 2008 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Smallball

wins championships.

IE Florida and Chicago.

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

what does that have to do my reply?

and pitching won chicago's championship, not small ball.

Is boston a small ball team? No. Rockies? No. Detroit in 06? No. St Louis? Not especially.

You cant call a team a small ball team just because they won with pitching not offense.

by DSheppard on Mar 24, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

All those

team were agressive at stealing bases though, and they have guys at the top of the lineup that sets everyone else up.

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's fabulous

But that's not why they won.

Jason Botts PWNS.

by thedirkatron on Mar 24, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

x

I know pitching is the key to winning championships.

But the key to offensive production in the post season and consistency has to do with a high rate of players getting on base.

You can't rely on power hitting your way to anything, because that is inconsistent. You need a fair share of people that are on the bases and that can steal bases.

I guess that has alot to do with Jaramillo and his beliefs, but that has showed it doesn't work.

Consistency is key.

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

on average power hitters get on base more than speed players

by DSheppard on Mar 24, 2008 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Miles

Stealing bases can be an advantage but only if your success rate is over 70%.

Also, small ball sucks.

lepricon

by jparks77 on Mar 24, 2008 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if the rangers shifted to small ball

with this same pitching staff.

100 losses?

by DSheppard on Mar 24, 2008 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

In the

playoffs, "swinging for the fences" doesn't work.

It works against crappy teams and pitchers.

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Red Sox during the 2007 Playoffs

.313/.395/.517 with 18 HR, compared to just 6 SB.

Baseball Time in Arlington

by jamcadbury on Mar 24, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

x

So a bunch of free swingers in a lineup trying to "swing for the fences" is better than a balanced OBP lineup?

Power is great, but in the past this team doesn't have structure in terms of setting things up.

sure they will hit a few out, but then inconsistency sets in.

You need to know how to take a few walks, which is not in this teams vocab.

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Noone says patience is bad

but now you are shifting from small ball to walks?

do you realize that small ball teams do not generall take a lot of walks? the angels are the biggest small ball team in the AL the last 5 years and they are known for being free swingers.

by DSheppard on Mar 24, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

This team left to many runners on base, I don't know the numbers but it isn't good.

I know small ball means lots of sac fly's and such, but incorparating Walks wouldn't hurt either.

The point is that there is one formula for this team, and that is power hitting, power hitting, power hitting.

There is more to it than that, and setting runs up works.

Washington is good at doing that, I am a huge fan of Washington. But he isn't able to do what he wants because of the hitting coach is a god in this organization. But the people that love this guy doesn't understand this offense isn't good at all.

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't understand****

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Once again your replies seemingly

have nothing to do with the post they are replying to.

Bashing wash for this is also pretty stupid.

Wash ran more and bunted more than any manager here has in a while.

And the rangers specifically went after defense and OBP this offseason, which Id presume a small ball/patience advocate would approve of. Hamilton may hit HRs, but he is also pretty patient and good defensively. Bradley isnt a big time power hitter, and he is patient and good defensively when he gets on the field.

The only really non-patient guys in the lineup are young, who gets on base through average anyway, and Laird, who is a defensive catcher.

The rangers are trying to get a solid obp good power lineup, which is the best way to score runs.

And even if the rangers did alter their entire offensive strategy, it wouldnt mean ANYTHING unless their pitching was suddenly twice as good.

Basically, this is a stupid argument. Small ball is about the 100th thing the rangers need to worry about right now.

by DSheppard on Mar 24, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Small ball

Do you even know what it is? A balanced OBP line-up is not specific to small ball.

Small ball consists of running, bunting and sacrificing. Small ball is manufacturing runs. Most high OBP teams don't waste at bats by asking one of the players from their "balanced OBP line-up" to sacrifice bunt.

lepricon

by jparks77 on Mar 24, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Exactly. I'd also like to chime in on everyone's point that high OBP guys are power guys, not basestealers. For a couple of wildly diverse examples from 2007:

Ortiz: .445 OBP - 3 SBs (He's hilarious to watch running; tiny little steps trying to get that mountain of humanity moving)
Pierre: .331 OBP - 64 SBs.

What happened to my old signature?

by WyoRanger on Mar 24, 2008 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and kinsler/MY will be trying to not get on base?

by DSheppard on Mar 24, 2008 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kinsler

is a absolute beast, think about him hitting behind a guy with .400+ OBP. Instead of him being a lead off guy, this team could take advantage of all his tools. He would have a ton more RBI's.

Milton Bradley for MVP

by miles on Mar 24, 2008 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

.400 obp

# of 400 obp players in the top 10 stolen base leaders in the AL: 0
# of 400 obp players in the top 10 HR leaders in the AL: 6

and you are now advocating moving our best baserunner that takes walks to the middle of the order when he most fits the top of the lineup guy you have been arguing for.

you make no sense at all.

by DSheppard on Mar 24, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Most of those teams

won because of their pitching, in spite of their offense.

If the Rangers pitching staff was as good as the Florida or Chicago championship clubs, I don't think their offense would be a problem.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on Mar 24, 2008 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

Miles cited the 2005 CWS above, but they won with pitching (#1 in AL era) and HRs (#4 in AL) - they were 11th in OBP and stole alot of bases but had a terrible success rate near 67%.

by Randy Richardson on Mar 24, 2008 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention

Almost every starter pitched a shutout over the course of the playoffs. Their pitching was great all season long, but it was insanely good when they hit the playoffs it was insanely good.

And with the 22nd overall selection the Dallas Cowboys select Jonathan Stewart.

by TheBZA on Mar 24, 2008 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luck

not to mention that everything just went as right as it could for that pitching staff that year. They fell back to earth since then.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 24, 2008 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luck

Yeah, it helps when your entire pitching staff has career years all at the same time. Not that it's that shocking of a statement, but if that happened to the Rangers this year, we'd be playing in October.

And with the 22nd overall selection the Dallas Cowboys select Jonathan Stewart.

by TheBZA on Mar 24, 2008 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would think

he'd have to carry a .800 OPS to make it worth a teams while to keep him, due to his lack of glove. Its probably better to carry a .750 guy who can cover a few field spots than a sub .800 guy who can't.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on Mar 24, 2008 2:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs