On the lineup

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 27, 2008 3:53 PM CDT

I saw some grousing about how terrible the Rangers #6-#9 hitters in the Opening Day lineup (Murphy, Byrd, Laird, Broussard) are.

To offer some perspective...here are the lines for the aggregate A.L. #6-#9 hitters in 2007:

#6 -- .273/.339/.435

#7 -- .265/.326/.419

#8 -- .241/.301/.364

#9 -- .249/.302/.367

Here's the PECOTA 50% projection for each of those 4 hitters:

Murphy -- .266/.325/.415

Byrd -- .274/.330/.428

Laird -- .240/.298/.393

Broussard -- .268/.324/.441

Now, these aren't park-adjusted, so you have to take that into account...but still, the Rangers projected performance from the #6-#9 slots compares pretty favorably with the average performance in the A.L. from those slots last year.

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Comments

My only gripe

is with Wash's refusal to platoon Broussard.

by TexasTiger on Mar 27, 2008 4:04 PM CDT reply actions

things could change

a month into the season...or Broussard could pleasantly surprise us all going from an extreme pitcher's park to an extreme hitter's park...you NEVER know

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Mar 27, 2008 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Thanks

Haters be hating.

But that river of tears has dried for all of us.

by trza on Mar 27, 2008 4:18 PM CDT reply actions

what about aggregate A.L. by position?

how do those 4 match up vs. the average player at their position on the field...

.500 or bust!

by Jayslick on Mar 27, 2008 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions

Here you go

LF: .275/.335/.426
RF: .288/.359/.465
C: .254/.318/.395
1B: .267/.348/.443

vs.

Murphy -- .266/.325/.415
Byrd -- .274/.330/.428
Laird -- .240/.298/.393
Broussard -- .268/.324/.441

Lower on every metric except Broussard's BA (by a single point) although I think this isn't as important because there's other positions in which the Rangers will get higher than league average production (which is why this is the bottom of the order). I stand by the fact that Broussard needs to be platooned though.

by TexasTiger on Mar 27, 2008 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions

also

if you put Bradley in RF and Byrd in LF you get just about league avg performance.

by Randy Richardson on Mar 27, 2008 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Thanks for adding that

I think the handwringing over the offense is a bit overdone. In 2007 the Rangers were 5th in the AL, and 7th in MLB in runs scored. I dare say this year they have a good chance to improve upon their 816 runs from last year. Broussard and Laird aren't likely to be among the best at their positions, but Hamilton, Blalock, and certainly Kinsler and Young will be. It all balances out.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 27, 2008 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions

2007

This was a typical lineup against LHP late last year after the trades:

Kinsler/Laird/Young/Sosa/Byrd/Botts/Cruz/Salty/Vazquez

That was pretty ugly.

I think it's fair to say the Rangers should score more runs this year.

by Randy Richardson on Mar 27, 2008 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions

2009

I'm getting pretty excited about the potential for offense next year with Salty and Davis replacing Laird and Broussard, and maybe an added outfielder over the offseason.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 27, 2008 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions

2008

I'm already excited about 2008, this has the potential to be a lineup that RHPs won't look forward to facing.

by Randy Richardson on Mar 27, 2008 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Bradley

Who you got replacing him in 2009? Mayberry?

by shroomer on Mar 27, 2008 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions

come on shroomer

dont set up people for zingers...

heh.

.500 or bust!

by Jayslick on Mar 27, 2008 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions

Don't know

but he may not be around, Byrd may not be around, and I hope they're not thinking Murphy is a long term solution. Since Daniels is so aggressive every winter I just figure he'll do something surprising again in both the outfield and the rotation.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 27, 2008 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions

why not?

what if Murphy starts 120 games, accumulating 500 at bats, hitting .275/.365/.425 with 15 bombs, several doubles, low K totals and superb defense...does that bother you as an everyday outfielder?

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Mar 27, 2008 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions

No, but

I don't expect him to do that. I think .275/.335/.425 is more likely, and he's a good bet to strikeout 80-100 times in that many PA's. He's a very good 4th outfielder, glad to have him.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 27, 2008 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions

I liked

where you were going above when you made a point that gets lost on this board a lot. It looks like that in the next couple of years you will have above average to highly above average production from positions like catcher, second base, shortstop, and center field. Therefore, you don't necessarily HAVE to have big time production from the typical offensive positions.

I would be fine with Murphy as a sem-long term solution, especially if they find suitable replacements in right field and at DH.

by badradiorules on Mar 28, 2008 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions

Except

If you are strong offensively up the middle and weak offensively in the corners, you are likely to be weaker than if you are strong offensively in the corners, and weak in the middle.

Thats because strong offensively up the middle means .800 or so OPS like Young has. Strong in the corners means 900+. When you trot out some 700 OPS guys in the corners, you more than make up for your strong up the middle guys.

Also, there is no such thing as "enough" offense. The more you have, the more valuable it is to fill an offensive hole with an offensive producer. Teams with little offense don't get nearly as big of a bump from adding a strong offensive players as a team with a strong offense but with holes.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on Mar 28, 2008 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions

Well

First, I didn't say put crap at every corner. I said if they find a quality right fielder and DH (The only holes that they are needing to fill next year if all goes as planned).

Absolutely, in a perfect world, give me the best player in the league at every position. However, this is far from the perfect world. Here you have to work with budgets, what players are available and what players you have. When Byrd and Bradley are gone, there are no replacements ready in right field. So more than likely you are going to have to sign a free agent to fill that hole. Unless Botts really turns things around or Cat stays, you are going to have to find a replacement there.

Assuming that those guys are at least league average and hoping that one of them is really above average, teamed with the supposed corner-type production that you will be getting from center field and catcher, you can save yourself from spending a lot more money to get another corner outfielder with an in-house replacement that is a little below average and will play a quality defensive left field.

All this hinges on what Murphy does with an extended look this season obviously.

by badradiorules on Mar 28, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions

agreed

and I think an outfielder with the capabilities you mention will be available in free agency next year, or even potentially via trade - especially with the farm system we have now and the valuable veterans we have. But I would much rather roll into 2009 with David Murphy and Marlon Byrd (assuming Milton Bradley doesn't stick, which is my preference) at the corner spots and sign a C.C. Sabathia than roll out a Torii Hunter in Left field, a Gary Mathews Jr. in right field and sign a Kyle Lohse - just prioritizing our needs and using the budget better, so to speak.

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Mar 28, 2008 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions

and

if Davis pans out at 1B and they can add a good bat in the outfield, they're that much better.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 28, 2008 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions

True

Hey, I'm all for going out and signing the world, but this is reality. They are already going to have acquire a right fielder and a DH. I would rather, if Murphy plays adequately this season, put him there and use the resources that you would use to acquire a left-fielder and a) get a better right-fielder or b) get a starting pitcher

by badradiorules on Mar 28, 2008 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions

Bradley

What about resigning Bradley if he has a good year?

by bigsteve on Mar 28, 2008 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions

Uh

I don't know if that would be a good investment. The only reason you would want to sign him is if he stays healthy and has a big year. If he does that, some other stupid team will probably offer 3-4 years or more at big money. With his injury history, I think that isn't such a good idea.

by badradiorules on Mar 28, 2008 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions

Outfield

You just go get the best outfielder you can, right or left, via trade probably. Don't worry about Murphy, he will always get plenty of at bats, even if he's just the 4th outfielder.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 28, 2008 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Obviously

I didn't say he was the cornerstone of the franchise, just that if he's your ninth best player, that's not so bad.

by badradiorules on Mar 28, 2008 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions

PECOTA

Laird is projected for a .298 OBP? Ow. I don't think he's much of a hitter but certainly he'll do better than that. And, yes, I remember last year.

by Black Francis on Mar 27, 2008 5:32 PM CDT reply actions

Broussard

isn't as bad as y'all say. He COULD be, but he also has the potential to have a .370 OBP and hit 25-30 HR's in our ballpark. It reminds me of David Ortiz going to Boston, except on a smaller scale.

This 6-9 is not even our best 6-9, put Cat and Botts in, and we're above average, well above average.

How does our 1-5 compare?

"LBrooks passes away... after the 'miracle' Rangers of '08 win the AL West." -slc ranger

by dstar442005 on Mar 27, 2008 6:01 PM CDT reply actions

Wait a minute

I'm not saying Broussard is awful or the worst 1B candidate in the league...I'm just saying he's NOT an everyday 1B.

1. Check out his splits vs. LHP: LINK

2. I think you're a bit aggressive in your .370 OBP suggestion he's done that once in his career and would have to meet his 90% percentile PECOTA to get to .373.

3. You might be right on the HR's if he plays everyday, but we would be sacrificing a lot against LHP.

by TexasTiger on Mar 27, 2008 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions

PECOTA

my eye..... and yes, I said .370 OBP as a SUGGESTION, an optimistic, aggresive SUGGESTION. I just said he had the potential, because he does.

"LBrooks passes away... after the 'miracle' Rangers of '08 win the AL West." -slc ranger

by dstar442005 on Mar 27, 2008 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions

Broussard doesn't really have the potential to hit 25-30 HR's

His ML career high is 21 in 2006, and his minor league career high was 28 back in 2001, spilt between high-A and AA.

Also, it should be noted that of his 84 career home runs, only 12 have come off of left-handed pitching. He owns a .399 career SLG% against LHP, and a 689 OPS. So going full-time is really not going to help increase his power numbers that much. He's flat out horrible against left-handed pitching, and playing full-time against them is going to bring his overall numbers down this year.

But, it's worth noting that Bromide Ben is still better against left-handed pitching (698 OPS in 348 AB's)) than Gerald Laird is against right-handed pitching (616 OPS, 620 AB's). (Sorry, I had to throw that in.)

A Lonestar in California

by LSJ on Mar 27, 2008 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Mark Derosa

You probably thought he didn't have the "potential" to hit 13 HRs in 06 considering his previous high was 8 but he did. In this ballpark yes Broussard does have the potential to hit 25-30. Will he...probably not but he does have that potential.

by bigsteve on Mar 27, 2008 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm not sure

He was watching baseball back then.

by brettgardner on Mar 27, 2008 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions

+1

Next track for OC, et al:

Del tha Funkee Homosapien - Catch A Bad One

by inactive lsb user on Mar 27, 2008 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions

or Delucci's 2005

or Matthews Jr's career soaring as an everyday Rangers CFer

or Marlon Byrd's resurrection (all-be-it only for half of a season)

the list goes on and on, and ANYTHING is possible

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Mar 27, 2008 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions

I'd put PECOTA

up against your projections and it'd be right far more often then you. I agree that he has the potential for .370 OBP, but I'm just pointing out that it is an extremely unrealistic suggestion. Just look at his OBP's over his career: LINK .370 is his career high and outside that year (2004 by the way) he's never even been above league average.

by TexasTiger on Mar 27, 2008 6:22 PM CDT reply actions

throw in a few years in Seattle in a miserable situation

as career low expectations before the year, and add in the fact that this is the best opportunity he's ever had when combining the lack of a threat to his position, the park factors, and his surrounding teammates' potential offensive numbers and I think you could be staring at a career year for Broussard. That said, I almost hope that doesn't happen, as I'd like to see Botts get 400 at bats this year, and that won't happen at DH with Cat, Bradley and Hamilton on this team

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Mar 27, 2008 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions