Saturday morning things
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 29, 2008 9:19 AM CDT
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PrintWell, that was unexpected.
After all the talk about the Rangers not wanting to risk losing Robinson Tejeda to a waiver claim, Tejeda is going to be traded or put on waivers so the Rangers can keep...Dustin Nippert?
Ron Washington likes how the bullpen is shaping up, with Nippert joining Jamey Wright, Franklyn German, and Josh Rupe in middle relief roles. However, someone in the bullpen is going to have to go when Luis Mendoza gets called up on April 12, and the only pitchers in the bullpen with options remaining are Rupe, C.J. Wilson, and Kaz Fukumori. Fukumori and Wilson aren't getting sent down, so either Rupe will go down, or someone will be d.l.'d or DFA'd.
Jeff Wilson says Washington likes having his lineup see all these lefty starters in the run-up to Monday's Opening Day game against Erik Bedard.
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Bradley
Just a week ago it seemed he would exclusively DH the first month, now it sounds like he'll be in the field a lot earlier and more often than expected.
by Randy Richardson on Mar 29, 2008 9:33 AM CDT reply actions
BP
When I think of German and Wright with their lack of control, Fukumori and Rupe with their lack of experience, Nippert and his lack of effectiveness, not to mention BGL and his spotty spring training, with Guardado and Benoit the injury risks...this could be an awful bullpen. It's not a complaint about waiving Tejeda, who'd have been walk-happy himself.
Sometimes I'm mystified at how ingrained this org's pitching problems are. Spring training and all the hand wringing over roles create this illusion that the best man's going to pan out, but the reality is the best man still sucks.
Here's hoping Nippert finds himself again. Obviously they're gambling on his ceiling.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 29, 2008 10:04 AM CDT reply actions
ingrained pitching problems
It would help if we didn't trade away a significant pitcher or prospect every off season, for an injury prone player.
The jury is still out on Hamilton and McCarthy. But if this season McCarthy fails to pitch at least 140 innings, and Hamilton fails to play at least 120 games, it's a damning indictment of JD's judgment.
How can the organization ever build a contending rotation if it trades away it's best young pitching talent every year, for players that can't stay on the field?
I was against the Danks/McCarthy deal
but he wasn't injury prone. Very revisionist.
by Brett Perryman on Mar 29, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
McCarthy's build
Has anyone seen a study showing correlation between pitcher body type and injury-proneness?
You have to believe that there was a way to quantify his propensity for injury before pulling the trigger on the trade.
Personally I hope that he pitches 200 innings this year. But clearly the community as a whole doesn't have much faith in McCarthy's health, as judged by the projections.
As tricer said in the projections thread, he's got a lot of strikes against him, based on what we've seen since he joined the club:
elbow problems + shoulder problems + blister problems + poor walk rate + poor k rate + tons of flyballs + a straight high 80s fastball
Well...
Prior to 2007, the only one of those things he had was the tons of flyballs.
Throughout his minor league career, and in the majors for the ChiSox, he consistently had very good K and walk rates.
His average fastball was 90.8 mph in 2006 for Chicago.
He didn't have any injury issues.
And really, at this point, it doesn't appear he has an elbow problem, but a forearm muscle problem.
If he had come up with the Rangers, I don't think there'd be this willingness to write him off.
But because all people saw of him was what he did last year, they are much more willing to discount what his track record was coming into 2007.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 29, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Body type and injury proneness?
I doubt you'll find any correlation at all. It has much more to do with mechanics.
For instance, you can find very tall, skinny pitcher who have been incredibly durable over their careers... like the Big Unit.
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Mar 29, 2008 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions
The pen
does look surprisingly bad. You kind of figured that we'd see some regression from it this year, but I didn't expect it to look so bad before the season even started.
by Brett Perryman on Mar 29, 2008 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Bullpen
I don't see it that way at all. The Rangers main weakness is the lack of an elite closer and Wilson should have some ups and downs during the year. But, between Benoit, Guardado, and Fukimori the Rangers should be pretty good in the 7th and 8th. Even if Wright, Rupe, German, and Nippert aren't anything to be overly excited about, the Rangers have four guys in the minors who have had some level of success in the majors (Francisco, Littleton, Feldman, Loe).
by Randy Richardson on Mar 29, 2008 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Here's what I see when I write them down
First off, I don't know how we can be too comfortable with the idea that Guardado is going to be dependable. Even before his most recent injury he was good in flashes but really inconsistent over the last couple of years. I have no problem with bringing him in, but I'm not comfortable penciling him in as a dependable setup guy.
Second, Fukumori is a total question mark. He was solid in camp, but his track record in Japan isn't too hot, and as respectable as their leagues are, they aren't MLB.
Benoit I'm optimistic about, even with his early conditioning issues, and I think that Wilson will get people out as the season progresses. I can even hold some hope for Wright after his solid performance in the pen last year.
But Rupe, German, Nippert, ugh, who knows, and I can't say that I'm expecting a ton from any of them.
All of that just doesn't add up to much for me. As you mentioned, I'd have about as much hope for the group waiting in the minors as most of these guys, but I guess I think of that as more of a negative on the big league guys. I'm especially disappointed that Francisco hasn't ever regained his form.
by Brett Perryman on Mar 29, 2008 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Fukumori
I agree that people seem to be awfully optimistic about a guy who really wasn't that impressive in Japan and is now coming into a much tougher league. Still, you have to be more encouraged than if he'd come in and pitched like Loe or Francisco did this spring.
A working class hero is something to be.
Agreed
I really have no idea why people are so high on Fukumori.
Consider his stats from the past 4 years in Japan all in relief:
2004 - 48.2 IP, 53 H, 5 HR, 24 BB, 27 K
2005 - 63.0 IP, 75 H, 5 HR, 24 BB, 36 K
2006 - 58.0 IP, 50 H, 2 HR, 27 BB, 55 K
2007 - 36.0 IP, 44 H, 1 HR, 17 BB, 33 K
Now, at least, it's been getting better these past couple of years, but that's a LOT of BB relative to Ks. Plus he gives up a lot of hits something which might not regress to the MAJOR LEAGUE pitcher mean.
And it's not like this is different from his career numbers:
631 IP, 650 H, 45+? HR, 220 BB, 403 K (1 year of HR data is missing)
To take another example, here's Okajima and Matsuzaka previous 4 years in Japan and their first year in Boston:
Okajima
2003 - 38.2 IP, 45 H, 6 HR, 20 BB, 29 K
2004 - 46.2 IP, 33 H, 5 HR, 20 BB, 53 K
2005 - 53.0 IP, 55 H, 10 HR, 19 BB, 56 K
2006 - 54.2 IP, 46 H, 5 HR, 14 BB, 63 K
2007 - 69.0 IP, 50 H, 6 HR, 17 BB, 63 K in Boston
Matsuzaka
2003 - 194.0 IP, 165 H, 13 HR, 63 BB, 215 K
2004 - 146.0 IP, 127 H, 7 HR, 42 BB, 127 K
2005 - 215.0 IP, 172 H, 13 HR, 49 BB, 226 K
2006 - 186.1 IP, 138 H, 13 HR, 34 BB, 200 K
2007 - 204.2 IP, 191 H, 25 HR, 80 BB, 201 K in Boston
I'm not saying he can't be a decent reliever. I'm saying why do most people ASSUME he'll be a GOOD reliever?
Req
One of the reasons people are so high on Fukumori
Is because he's been lights out this spring.
I think he'll probably make a good ML releiver, but I do question how effective he'll be once the AL and the ALW teams see him a few times.
I think he will...
do ok until he starts to face hitters for the 3rd or 4th time and they get a feel for him. Then I think he may struggle. His numbers in Japan suggest he could have a hard time in a better league. Right now the element of surprise is his best friend.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Fukumori doesn't have good stuff
If his deception doesn't make up for that, he needs to be replaced quickly by somebody with a much better repertoire.
http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=682
"I can only hope that you continue to monitor me, and help me out as I slowly work to take the training wheels off." - BG
by inactive lsb user on Mar 30, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
bullpen
I didn't want to imply that I thought Benoit, Guardado, and Fukimori would all be sure things. I think the strength of the bullpen is the amount of solid options (both in the majors and minors) that the Rangers have.
by Randy Richardson on Mar 30, 2008 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Nippert
The first thing I thought when I read the news was that the Rangers got another tall pitcher. Loe, Beavan now Nippert at 6-7. It almost seems like the organization believes it can develop taller pitchers better than other organizations. Of course, I don't know the weights and measures of every other organization, but that was my initial thought.
What happened to my old signature?
but
seems like we have the most trouble developing tall pitchers, so much so that we just throw our hands up in the air and say they're hopeless. We did that with Chris Young and it seemed like they were pretty close to doing that with McCarthy last year.
I will say this - if Nippert comes here and all of a sudden his fastball tops out at 89, Mark Connor should be fired on the spot.
McCarthy
When did anyone start saying he's hopeless?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 29, 2008 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
no, not hopeless
and they didn't really say chris young was hopeless. but just seemed like with so many mechanics problems that they were starting to get resigned to teh fact that mccarthy was never going to top 94mph again.
if you can't pitch because of injuries
that's pretty hopeless. what is to hope for --- half of a good season?
Wait 'til the year after next
Tejeda
This may have been asked in one of the discussions below, but is there any way that he could be traded at this point?
I guess if Nippert is fetching only a low A middling prospect, the answer is no. But Tejeda has had some success in the majors, it is just intermittent. You'd think that some pitching coach somewhere who saw him on one of his "good Tejeda" days may convince their organization that he can fix him.
I know spring stats don't matter
but it seems like we are cutting lose Tejeda when he has pitched well enough to earn a spot in this bullpen. over 13 innings, he has given up 13 hits and 4 walks, to go with his 13 Ks, giving him a WHIP of 1.31. Compare that to a guy like Wright, who has a WHIP of 1.63 this spring, or Rupe, who has a WHIP of 1.68. And then there's Nippert, whose WHIP was a healthy 3.8. I know these are all small sample sizes, and a team has to go on past performance and scouting reports when making final roster decisions, but I really think the team will regret letting him go, and if past performance is part of the equation, then I am not sure guys like German, Rupe, Nippert, and Wright make me all that confident.
+1 but our confidence is not in this team...
it's in (hopefully) the ability to develop our youth to be effective major leaguers. Nippert has a higher upside and sometimes the change of scenery is good for a player. Let's hope that's the case here. One thing the rangers will have to do better if they are going to develop their youth is stick with them through the bumps and the bruises. They aren't doing it with tejeda. Here's hoping they do it with their other young pitchers and position players. Give them the shot they need and stick with them.
The season is upon us, and I am excited, not because I think the rangers have a chance of winning (which i don't), but because we'll get to see some of the young players make it to Arlington this year and even younger players advance in the minors. It's exciting when you look at all the really young talented players that will be 22 or 23 or younger on this team this year and next. Keep it up Rangers, and develop these kids right.
Wait 'til the year after next
Re: Tejeda
Was he deemed uncoachable, or somesuch? There must have been more to this than we fans know...
...it's the weekend, so why the hell not?
The impression I got was...
...that we gave him enough chances to establish himself and never did.
I also feel like his career troubles partly mirror the troubles Joaquin Benoit had when Buck was around. I wonder if the Rangers will be a little more careful with him if we don't trade him and manage to get him through waivers.
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