An Encouraging Note on Nippert
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 29, 2008 12:28 PM CDT
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PrintAs has already been discussed, Nippert disappointed pitching out of the pen for the D-Backs last year, posting a 5.56 ERA.
But his peripherals were actually pretty solid...he had a 3.90 DIPS ERA. While his BABIP was a shade over .300, which generally reflects some bad luck, his biggest problem appears to be his performance with RISP...overall, Nippert allowed opposing hitters a .267/.327/.417 line, but with RISP, it was .300/.386/.620.
Generally, one would expect that to be a matter of bad luck, rather than an inherent inability to perform in clutch situations.
PECOTA, Bill James, Marcel, Miner, and CHONE all project him to have an ERA below 5.00 this year, with only ZiPS slotting Nippert above 5.00.
Take that for what it is worth.
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Nippert
What's your take on the deal, Adam?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 29, 2008 12:55 PM CDT reply actions
Shrug
It is okay, I guess. Nippert had a better season last year than the raw ERA would suggest. He could probably be a decent bullpen arm.
I'm not going to jump up and down about it, because at the end of the day, it may well cost us Tejeda, who I think has a decent chance of getting claimed. And I'm all that sure that Nippert is all that better than Tejeda.
But...I see the rationale behind it. I think there were probably some things behind the scenes with Tejeda that had the Rangers concerned, in terms of makeup or something like that, that had them questioning whether he could really make the transition to the pen and be counted on long-term.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 29, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Nippert
If his role is clear, whether it's BP or starting, and he gets reps, it's a good pick up. Cause, yeah, maybe Tejeda fell out of favor.
It is nice that Nippert's control is superior.
Of course, maybe Tejeda'll clear waivers and the whole thing will be academic.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 29, 2008 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Closer material?
Big fastball, decent curveball. If he gets his control under control, John Wetteland redux?
Hmmm
What were his splits with runners on base?
Maybe it's just the stretch and not a bad luck anomaly with RISP
Nippert's splits
630 OPS with no one on, 871 OPS with runners on.
But with only a runner on first, he allowed just a 672 OPS.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 29, 2008 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
jeez . . .
those numbers make his abilities with RISP look worse than originally thought.
That's got to be more mental than just bad luck.
Thanks for the numbers Adam.
projection systems
PECOTA, Bill James, Marcel, Miner, and CHONE all project him to have an ERA below 5.00 this year, with only ZiPS slotting Nippert above 5.00.
Were all of the systems projecting him as a reliever or a starter?
by a bebop a rebop on Mar 29, 2008 1:46 PM CDT reply actions
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