Pecota Cards

by JTodd on Mar 3, 2008 12:06 PM CST Comment 3 comments

I don't understand where they are coming from. I have a statistical background and subscribe to BP but I just don't get it. Can someone explain these Pecota projections to me? How are all the Rangers young players going to get worse?

How is ISuzuki who posted an EQA of .308 with a +15 defense in centerfield in 2007 projected to post a .271 EQA with -3 defense in CF in 2008?

There are numerous examples like this.

I am starting to just not use Pecota at all.

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Ichiro

First off, I pretty much ignore BP's defensive ratings, particularly on the PECOTA cards...

Secondly, on Ichiro, he's a tough one to evaluate because there are so few players like him. That's why his Similarity Score is so low...the lower the Similarity Score, the less reliable the projection is.

Third, last year was something of a spike compared to his previous few years, so you'd expect him to drop off from there.

I do think that the drop-off PECOTA projects is too extreme...PECOTA simply runs the numbers based on the subsequent seasons of the players most comparable to Ichiro. And I think the system sees that small guys who rely on speed and hitting singles tend to drop precipitously in their mid-30s.

But yeah, I'd take the over...

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 3, 2008 12:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs