Some Linkaliciousness

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 30, 2008 7:05 PM CDT Comment 27 comments

Some things out there to check out and think about...

Want to see someone who has something good to say about the Rangers? Check out Dave Cameron's "things I believe about 2008" post, which predicts that there will be talk about the "surprising" Texas Rangers this summer.

Dave Cameron and Joe Sheehan agree on very few things. But this may be one of them, as Sheehan is somewhat positive about the Rangers in his A.L. preview today:

Texas Rangers (80-82, 840 RS, 849 RA). I’m a bit surprised at how good the Rangers look, but it's a function of the outfield upgrades over the offseason on top of the potential for one healthy season from Hank Blalock. If I had to pick a surprise team in the AL, it would be this one; the Rangers could get a combined 70 decent starts from Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and terrific bargain pickup Jason Jennings to make a run at the postseason. With so many injury cases on the roster, the Rangers could win anywhere from 69 to 92 games, depending on DL days.

Sheehan's W/L prediction is identical to mine, but he also echoes something I've mentioned before...this could be a 90 win team or a 90 loss team, depending on health. If Brandon McCarthy is the only significant injury the Rangers have, they should make a run at the Angels.

The Prospectus Hit List? Not so optimistic...

Sheehan also has a chat session up, in which he says that he agrees with the decision to start Laird and send Saltalamacchia down, in part because of Laird's defense.

On Laird's defense...everyone knows he has a gun behind the plate, but did you know he was also in the upper quarter of the league last year in runs saved (per 120 games) on blocking balls in the dirt? And even better if you look from 2005-2007? Let's have some love for OMFT...

Lookout Landing has a series preview up for M's/Rangers, and they hate on our might triumvirate of Millwood, Padilla and Jennings...

FJM is pissed off because some crotchety old man thinks Opening Day shouldn't take place in Japan because the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. A lot of people seem irritated that Opening Day was overseas, saying it should be in America because of tradition and yada yada yada. Me, I don't care.

I enjoyed this, if only because they surprised me with some of the book references. And you know, maybe we'll steal that bit from KSK, and do our own mock drafts about non-sports-related things over here come August, if the Rangers are out of the race.

Nick Masset did make the ChiSox. That elicited a passionate reaction at South Side Sox.

Keith Law has some praise for Tommy Hunter, saying he could be in the Rangers' pen by 2009.

BA breaks down the Nippert trade. Their conclusion?

If Nippert can approach his previous form, this deal will be a steal for the Rangers. If not, it was still a low-cost gamble worth taking.

And some geeks with slide rules simulate all of baseball history 10,000 times, looking to see how unlikely it is that anyone would have a 56 game hitting streak...and determine that it really isn't that unlikely at all...

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Is tommy hunter that good?

BA hit that one right on the nose.

Adam loves him some Lard

by NYTXFAN on Mar 30, 2008 7:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hunter is a hot name

He's probably gotten more kudos than any other Rangers prospect since fall instructs, partly because of his role as a leader, but a lot because they think he's good.

And unlike Borbon, if he is pretty advanced as advertised, I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the picture some time in 2009. Pitchers are different.

by Brett Perryman on Mar 30, 2008 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why no Borbon in '09?

You don't think he'll perform well?

"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi

by thedirkatron on Mar 30, 2008 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Borbon

I would at least like to see him do something in the minors before we start thinking he can contribute next year. To me, he's a Juan Pierre starter kit right now until he proves he can work a count and throw to 2nd base without the aid of a cutoff man.

Better to be judged by 12 than carried by 6.

by DaheelzCM on Mar 30, 2008 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Borbon

As long as he isn't making the same money as Pierre I would be fine with that type of player. Especially if he can lock down the vast area in center at The Balpark.

by bigsteve on Mar 30, 2008 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well of course

the same with Hunter.

I was just wondering why Z thinks Hunter has a shot at drinking some big league Joe in '09, but that Borbon doesn't.

"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi

by thedirkatron on Mar 30, 2008 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

The difference between him and Pierre is that Borbon, supposedly, is a very good defensive CFer.

Wily Tavares may be a better comp than Pierre.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 30, 2008 9:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

That makes Borbon look even worse to me. Thanks.

Better to be judged by 12 than carried by 6.

by DaheelzCM on Mar 30, 2008 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

Tavares, unlike Pierre, is a good defensive CFer.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 30, 2008 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

I may have an incorrect preconceived opinion of Taveras from his days in Houston. That may be unfair and inaccurate on my part. I think my main issue is that I really don't like the fact that the 35th pick in the draft is being compared with either one of them.

Better to be judged by 12 than carried by 6.

by DaheelzCM on Mar 30, 2008 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

You could compare him to Johnny Damon. Borbon, unlike Pierre and Tavares, and like Damon, supposedly has some pop.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 30, 2008 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Melky

by shroomer on Mar 30, 2008 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

35th pick in the draft

Any time you can get a major league starter out of that draft slot you should probably be happy with it, star or not.

by JBImaknee on Mar 30, 2008 11:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

"I can only hope that you continue to monitor me, and help me out as I slowly work to take the training wheels off." - BG

by Chase Irwin on Mar 31, 2008 12:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+2

by brettgardner on Mar 31, 2008 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can't wait

for the actual game tomorrow.

" Winning doesn't always mean being first,
winning means you are doing better than you have done before"

by coolaid on Mar 30, 2008 7:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I may be thinking

of just this year and last year, but doesn't it seem like Sheehan picks the Rangers as sleepers pretty annually? I feel good that he a) has been paying attention to how Millwood and Padilla look in the spring and b) likes Jennings as a bargain. We all liked that signing quite a bit, and I'd love to see it work out because I believe we could actually keep him if he does well in that park.

by Brett Perryman on Mar 30, 2008 7:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

He really liked them last year

Predicted them to win the West.

Not sure about before that, though.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 30, 2008 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting . . .

I remember reading a Stephen Jay Gould's piece in the early 90's were he layed out how DiMaggio's streak was the least probable in all of sport. I've been quoting it ever since. I guess I'll stop now.

by Randy Richardson on Mar 30, 2008 8:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If you ask me...

...the test is somewhat absurd. I can agree with their assertion that someone like Ty Cobb should've had a long hitting streak, but I think the idea that someone could've had a 109-game hitting streak is ridiculous. Baseball is a game that tracks its statistical anomalies and places the most anomalous on hallowed grounds.

I myself am a computer scientist, and without knowing the circumstances under which they ran their tests, their results are meaningless to me. Their metric seems to be more "I got a hit in this game" than "I got a hit in this at-bat". As far as we can tell, it doesn't actually simulate games, pitching, pitchers, in-game situations (where a manager might call for a sacrifice), or any of the other considerable inputs that make up a season. Furthermore, without individual at-bat simulations, rule changes made to baseball throughout these eras are made totally irrelevant in their experiment.

Frankly, I'd be ready to buy into their statements more if they included their simulated game score data and pitching performance data, and compared it to those actual seasons. Otherwise, I honestly think this is a farce -- and we haven't even gotten to the point that random numbers, in computer science terms, aren't random. Anyone who's taken a few semesters' worth of computer science classes should be able to tell you that they're actually pseudorandom numbers.

I'll grant these guys that 99% of all people don't care to read about miscellaneous computer science details, but it would lend a lot of credence (or debunk their whole experiment) for me.

by jwiscarson on Mar 30, 2008 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would defer

to you on methodology. Although, in their defense, they are pretty upfront that the overwhelming majority of the streak records would have occured pre-1940. That second graph is interesting. Seems like the main conclusion would be not that it's likely someone will break DiMaggio's streak sometime soon, but that it's unusual that someone didn't set a much longer streak before DiMaggio.

by Randy Richardson on Mar 30, 2008 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can agree with that sentiment....

...from about 1920-1940. The point they made about Ty Cobb not owning the streak is an interesting one, I must admit.

by jwiscarson on Mar 30, 2008 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

bah

there is such a thing as pressure. when your hititng streak gets up in numbers, i'm sure you would get more nervous than a random number generator would allow. but, it does answer the question in terms of a numbers idea. i wonder if reaching base 14 times in a row is equally as likely.

New Troll Script for 2.0

by ab03 on Mar 30, 2008 8:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Health

it's just too much to ask for the team to remain healthy enough to win 90. But it's not too much to think that both Jennings and Blalock could look good enough that they deserve to be kept around for another few years.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 30, 2008 8:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Opening day in Japan

I have a logistic problem with it. I don't care about the tradition and such I just think it's unfair that those teams have to do that. It messes up the last 2 weeks of their ST. And why Japan? They already love baseball. If you are looking to market the game go somewhere that the game is less popular and expose it to a new group of fans.

Better to be judged by 12 than carried by 6.

by DaheelzCM on Mar 30, 2008 8:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, that's why MLB went to China this year

To create a new market, and introdice the sport to a new culture.

But I do agree, having "opening day" in Japan is just stupid. I have nothing against the Japanese, I love their food... but I hate stupid publicity stunts in other countries, period.

Having opening day in Japan is like NASCAR sending the Busch Series to Mexico and Canada... it's a publicity stunt that means nothing in the grand scheme of things, and it winds up costing more money and effort to make it happen than the gains justify.

A Lonestar in California

by lonestarJon on Mar 31, 2008 12:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Rangers

can easily have a winning year this year. Obviously, it comes down to health, especially of the outfield and rotation.

If the outfield is healthy, the OF upgrade alone is worth 5-10 games. I don't think you can overstate how much improved this year's OF is, both defensively and offensively, than last year's OF. I think if Bradley, Hamilton, Murphy, and Byrd show some semblance of health, the defensive upgrade alone will result in a fairly good sized drop of ERA. Maybe a quarter point or so.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on Mar 31, 2008 8:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs