John Sickels Q&A
As noted last week, John Sickels of Minor League Ball agreed to do a short Q&A with us, which I have set out below:
Q) Chris Davis is a fascinating prospect, both because
of his incredible power at such a young age, and because of his scary strikeout
totals. How big a red flag should those strikeouts be -- is he someone who
is going to top out as a Russ Branyan or Dean Palmer type, or do you think the
strikeouts are something he can get under control as he gets older?
A) It’s a strong caution signal, but given his youth and production otherwise he’s got a good chance to be a useful hitter. There is some risk he could flame out in a Dallas McPherson way. Branyan or Palmer are also possible outcomes. Baseball Prospectus also points out David Ortiz as a possible comp. We just really don’t know yet.
Q) Could you
name one pitcher and one hitter in the Rangers system who you would consider
legit sleeper candidates (much like German Duran last season)?
A) I still think Brandon Boggs is a sleeper. Like his power, speed, and walks, he does everything except hit for average. On the pitching side, consider Warner Madrigal, the guy they picked up as a free agent from the Angels system. Power arm, fresh, and his command has been better than expected after he converted from the outfield.
Q) Who, of
the teenage high-ceiling guys in the system (Engel Beltre, Wilmer Font, Neftali
Feliz, etc.), do you think has the best chance of becoming a superstar down the
road?
A) Well I like to split the hitters from the pitchers. Both Font and Feliz have the arm strength to be excellent. At this point I like Feliz slightly better, but in both cases we need to see how their command holds up against better competition, development of secondary pitches, health status, etc. Beltre is a real wild card. Scouts love his tools and he’s young, but his performance last year was very erratic, and I want to see what happens at higher levels. I don’t rate him as highly as some analysts do because I still have questions about his ability to make sufficient contact.
Q) If you
were the Rangers, what would you do with Jarrod Saltalamacchia, both in 2008 and
long-term?
A) I’d just stick him at
first base. I think Teagarden is the catcher of the future, and using Salty as a
catcher could inhibit his offensive development.
Q) A frequent
debate among Rangers fans is whether a rebuilding team (such as Texas) should be
promoting players who have had some success in AA, such as Eric Hurley and
German Duran, aggressively, or if there is more value in having them spend time
in AAA and having them excel there before coming up. Where do you stand on
that issue?
A) I think both Double-A and Triple-A are necessary steps in the development of most players. Maybe not all, but most. The style of play and the type of competition is different at the two levels. In Double-A you tend to see younger players, more athletic, guys who maybe throw harder but are less polished. In Triple-A you have more of a mixture, some younger guys yes, but also older more veteran types, marginal major leaguers, Quadruple-A players. Many of the pitchers don’t throw quite as hard, but they are better at changing speeds and working a hitter’s weaknesses.
I think players need to be exposed to both levels in order to be best prepared for the wide variety of competitors they will be exposed to in the majors. Some of the elite prospects can be pushed past Triple-A quickly without it being a big deal, but in general I think most players need a year of Double-A and at least a half-year of Triple-A before being fully ready for major league action. That’s my opinion.
Q) What was
the bigger package -- what the Expos gave up for Colon, or what the Braves gave up for
Teixeira?
A) It’s too early to tell of
course, we would need five years to properly assess the Teixeira deal. It could
end up being quite comparable.
Q) Did Jon Daniels blow it in
trading Masset and Danks for McCarthy?
A) Again, we have to see what
Danks develops into. It’s just too early to say. Certainly McCarthy has been
disappointing, but Danks is no sure thing yet either. It could end up being a
wash if they both fail.
Q) What is the story with Matt Harrison's low strikeout totals? His stuff is supposedly better than the K numbers reflect, and he has had success, but do the low K numbers bode ill for him going forward?
A) Well K/IP is very important, it’s a key indicator. But it’s not the only indicator, other stats matter, too, and scouting reports and projection. None of it can be ignored. Harrison picked up some velocity in the Arizona Fall League, he gets some ground balls, and I’ve long liked his overall potential as a strike-thrower with a bit more stuff than you see from the average finesse lefty. I don’t see him as an ace, but I think he can be a very fine number three or four starter.
Many thanks to John for taking the time out to do this with us, and make sure you add Minor League Ball to your RSS feed or bookmarks...
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Comments
No response to my Drew Meyer question?
He obviously can't handle the high hard heat I've been throwing.
"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck
good to see
someone else likes Brandon Boggs.
Interesting that he thinks Salty should be moved to first. I don't understand that, even though I tend to agree that Teagarden is going to be a better fit at Catcher for the Rangers.
If Salty rakes all year and ends up being traded for an elite near ready pitching prospect and Teagarden and Laird split time behind the plate next year, that may be the ideal situation. And Salty will obviously bring more in trade as a slugging catcher, rather than a slugging 1B.
Pedro: "I wasn't cockfighting, I just have a wide stance."
Agree
The "move Salty to 1B" is what jumped out at me. I think moving Salty for the right package (Boston?) is the best movie at this point.
Thanks for answering John.
And with the 22nd overall selection the Dallas Cowboys select Jonathan Stewart.
I need to see Tea
catch more than 2 games in a row for me to be confident that he is anything more than a great backup.
Even if Teagarden is only a great backup
and Laird is a great backup, that's better than what most teams have at catcher.
And of course, this scenario is dependent on getting an elite pitching prospect for Salty.
Pedro: "I wasn't cockfighting, I just have a wide stance."
Salty trade idea
Assuming Buckholz emerges as a top of the rotation starter and Boston feels they have a surplus of rotation options going forward, how would you feel about Salty and an additional player (possibly a reliever like Littleton or Frankie Frank) for Jon Lester?
lepricon
+1
... but I don't think they'd do it.
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Apr 11, 2008 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Why not?
Salty is still a premium prospect if he continues to rake in AAA, not to mention the likely improvement in defense we'll see him make over a few months time. Lester isn't an ace or anything and could easily become expendable.
"You are this month's NYTXFAN." - t ball
by inactive lsb user on Apr 11, 2008 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah I tend to agree with that...
Boston might see the wisdom in such an exchange.
And it's something the Rangers should be interested in too.
Right around the time all the young talent is ready to contend is when the organization will realize that Ron Washington is the wrong man for the job.
-1
for me. +1 for you guys. I brain farted and saw Bucholtz and thought Littleton and Salt for Bucholtz and didn't think the Sox would do that. They might for Lester.
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Apr 11, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Obviously
it's time for a cold alcoholic beverage in about an hour
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Apr 11, 2008 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions
makes sense
Yeah, I'd probably do that. Interesting idea because the Red Sox may have extra incentive to deal a southpaw starter, because they typically struggle at Fenway. Could be a scenario where Salty is more valuable to the Sox, while Lester would be more valuable here.
Pedro: "I wasn't cockfighting, I just have a wide stance."
Never
going to happen.
It might seem equal to us value-wise, but no way is Boston gonna trade a young pitcher with 5 years of team control after this one for anything less than an absolute sure thing.
And with Varitek there, how much do they need Salty? And don't say Varitek is gonna walk after this year. Not. Gonna. Happen.
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Apr 11, 2008 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Shiiiiiiiiiit
Tek is old and well on the downside of his career. At his age, I hope he still can walk. With Kevin Cash as the 2nd C... psst, please. They could use some Salt.
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Apr 11, 2008 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions
You realy think
a veteran contending team under constant pressure to perform now like the Sox is gonna go out and get a young unproven catcher with major question marks and ask him to come in an replace an icon like Varitek?
That'd be a hell of a tough situation to throw a young catcher into, and one hell of a gamble by the Sox.
That wouldn't even like throwing a kid to the wolves, it'd be like throwing a kid to a bunch of wolves with bees in their mouths and when they bark they shoot bees at you.
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Apr 11, 2008 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions
You really think
this made sense:
"That wouldn't even like throwing a kid to the wolves, it'd be like throwing a kid to a bunch of wolves with bees in their mouths and when they bark they shoot bees at you."
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Apr 11, 2008 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions
It's from...
the Simpsons.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
+1
And may jeebus bless both of you for catching that.
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Apr 11, 2008 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Epstein, like Bdiddy, has balls that make anvils go a'pucker
He sneers at said pressure.
Varitek already has 2 rings. What if we have Pedro redux? I don't think it is implausible to see Bawstun offer 2/20 firm, and some other sucker counter w/ 4/48. I think both sides walk if that happens.
Plus, I think it is likely that Saltalawhoppia removes all question marks after this year. Don't you?
Rex Hudler is in demand as a motivational speaker.
by Brian Thomas on Apr 11, 2008 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Valid points
Though I still don't think he's going anywhere, and I still don't think Salty + a mediocre bullpen arm gets you Lester.
Of course I'm firmly in the "Salty's Gonna be a Stud, Please Make Him Our Long-Term Starting Catcher" camp, so maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part.
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Apr 11, 2008 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep...
his defense may be very good by the time he gets here.
However, his offense may be wose than OMFT the first year or so he's here as well. He really needs some work with the bat.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Varitek
I wouldn't be so sure that Boston isn't going to let him walk. Boston seems to have no problem letting players with diminishing skill sets walk away regardless of their overall importance to the franchise.
In the last few years they didn't re-sign Trot Nixon, Johnny Damon, Pedro Martinez, Kevin Millar and Bill Mueller to name a few. Varitek might be a different story considering his involvement with the pitching staff but I don't think it is as obvious as you are making it.
lepricon
Also
I think his performance this season will help to determine his status with Boston going forward. If he continues to offer solid offensive production at the plate and solid defense behind it, I can definitely see Boston trying to sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal.
Of course if his offense starts to deteriorate and age starts to limit his effectiveness behind the plate, I can see Boston offering him a 1 year deal which could open the door for the Sox to actively pursue a catcher to apprentice under him.
lepricon
Perhaps
You make a cogent point there about Boston's history letting "icon" guys go (Trot, Pedro and Damon... not so much Mueller and Millar, who has their moments but aren't really in the same class, imo).
And maybe you're right.
But I just don't see it with Varitek. I think they'll bring him back on a 2-3 year deal and maybe bring in a backup to spell him a little more as he gets older, but I just can't see them letting him walk unless his demands are just outrageous.
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Apr 11, 2008 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe
but that doesn't mean they won't be grooming someone to take over. In fact, they would be stupid not to. Salt would be in demand if offered. Don't doubt that.
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Apr 11, 2008 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Sure
but why give up a valuable piece like Lester to bring in said groom-monkey?
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Apr 11, 2008 8:00 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
I wish people would stop saying that Salty should be moved to 1B. At this point we should be focused on preserving/maximizing his value as a potentially good-hitting catcher.
Right around the time all the young talent is ready to contend is when the organization will realize that Ron Washington is the wrong man for the job.
remember
that Sickels has projected a pretty high offensive ceiling for Salty. I think I remember seeing him write that he thinks Salty's bat could be very Teixeira-like. That may explain why he thinks a move to 1b makes sense.
Pedro: "I wasn't cockfighting, I just have a wide stance."
I also think
there's a very legitimate concern that excess catching could damage knees or interfere with the development of his offense in some way. That's why he's saying that Salty could and probably should be moved to 1B.
I like
what he says about having prospects hit AAA as part of their development. I know we all get carried away of this guy is ready or that guy needs to take his knocks at the Big League level, but unless we have an uber-prospect (not had one since Tex) skipping AAA is cheating that player's development, in my opinion. Eric Hurley was subjected to this debate and we have seen that he's not blowing AAA away but is adjusting which is great for his development.
Sure there are a lot of Major league spares and prospect flame-outs in AAA, but to a kid from AA, this definitely provides advanced competition.
No JMJ love
=/
"You are this month's NYTXFAN." - t ball
by inactive lsb user on Apr 11, 2008 12:04 PM CDT reply actions
Salty at 1B
It just seems waaay to early to move him. If they're going to move him, I'd rather they just moved him to another team for a young stud OFer.
A working class hero is something to be.
Agreed, but for more pitching.
It's time to make up for years... hell, DECADES of neglect by stockpiling as much pitching as possible.
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Apr 11, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Perhaps, but...
...not just pitching for pitching's sake. Most trade situations at this point should be about maximum value, be it pitching or hitting. The Rangers could certainly use any of either at both the major and minor league level.
Right around the time all the young talent is ready to contend is when the organization will realize that Ron Washington is the wrong man for the job.
If the Rangers have a big hole and a great trade piece to fill it
then that would make sense. I just think a big need is quality pitching to fill rotation spots, for both short and long term, and for depth.
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Apr 11, 2008 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll clarify my position
What I'm saying is that the Rangers have enough "missing pieces" that if the value of the pitching they are offered is say 90% of the value of the position player(s) offered they should go with the position players.
Short and long term the team has as many hitting as pitching issues.
Right around the time all the young talent is ready to contend is when the organization will realize that Ron Washington is the wrong man for the job.
+1
Absolutely.
"You are this month's NYTXFAN." - t ball
by inactive lsb user on Apr 11, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
That makes sense
and you are correct. We are seeing that these are not the 2004 Rangers swinging the bats anymore. It just seems as though there are more potential problems waiting down the road for the pitching staff than with the lineup. Millwood is old, Padilla is nuts, Gabbard and McCarthy are injury-prone, and Jennings is.... well.... not getting it done thus far. However, the depth for our position players is thin... with respect to having players immediately ready to step in and produce. Thus, in far too many words, I agree with your take... even being frustrated by decades of no pitching. Whatever is the best available for the most reasonable need would be a good pickup and would help the team.
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Apr 11, 2008 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't see it that way
The #1 weakness on the big league team and the upper minors is quality starting pitching.
Pedro: "I wasn't cockfighting, I just have a wide stance."
Yeah, me too. It would have been nice to hear Sickels' thoughts on that (he remarked disgruntledly).
http://www.lonestarball.com/2008/4/4/389680/questions-for-john-sickels#4369891
Rex Hudler is in demand as a motivational speaker.
by Brian Thomas on Apr 11, 2008 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
That's a bit too specific
it's not like he knows who is on the market. Unlike the major leagues, there isn't exactly a lot said about which prospects are avaliable and which are not.
I was just asking about value, not who could be had
I don't follow the minors as much as some, but I read all the major sites, and get the BA, Sickels, HBT, Bill James, and BP books. So I can usually get a handle on a player or prospect's worth, but for some reason, Saltalamacchia's value is still unclear to me (I used to follow this shit religiously, but now I just sit back and let Zywica and Rangeressary and Tball and Huntressa and the rest just spoon it on over to me. Beanpie magnates are all about time management, FYI).
FWIW, he answered my question on the other thread, but reluctantly. Ha. I think he still missed my intent a little. He said hell no on Bruce/Maybin/Rasmus. Well damn, John, I knew that. I'm not an idiot. He said he would do McCutcheon, which I wonder how many other bball literati would agree with. That's a pretty good return, although w/ Big Hammy in CF, and McCutcheon not having the stroke to be as valuable on a corner, he might not be a perfect fit.
That's the main reason I said "high A or above." I think John just considered dudes who were at Jumpstain's approximate development level. Obviously, guys at Salts McGee's "cusp" level might bring back more value from a guy a little lower, at say high A, or just starting AA, since once a stud has had success at AA, he is probably overvalued a little by his parent club, imo.
So, as an addendum to my windbagginess, if anyone else wants to chime in w/ a short list of minor league or low service time MLB OFers that most would agree would be an equal value return for Salts McGee, I'd be willing to address them as Baseball Moses for a fortnight.
Rex Hudler is in demand as a motivational speaker.
by Brian Thomas on Apr 11, 2008 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions
The team
that probably would make the best fit is probably Tampa Bay or Colorado, since the other teams with relatively worthwhile OF (Pittsburgh, Washington, Baltimore, Dodgers) are either not dealing or not looking for a catcher. Maybe something like Salty for Desmond Jennings + someone? There is really a dearth of quality outfielders right now.
McCutchen
is a Juan Pierre starter kit with slightly less speed and slightly more power. Salty for McCutchen is a bad move considering we already have a McCutchen-esque player on the 40 with Borbon.
Salty for OF Travis Snider would be an interesting trade although he only has 27 ABs at the High A level. The Jays are currently enjoying the services of Zaun and Barajas at the major league level and catching prospect J.P. Arencibia is a long way off and not nearly as skilled with the bat as Salty.
lepricon
Thank you, Baseball Moses :)
Rex Hudler is in demand as a motivational speaker.
by Brian Thomas on Apr 11, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Snider
I heard that he's unlikely to remain in the OF, but that's a great call, Toronto also has Adam Lind, who might also not be a long-term OF, but is certainly a very nice bat.
Snider
I haven't read anything suggesting that he is unlikely to remain in the OF but it makes sense considering he only stands 5'11'' yet weighs close to 245 lbs as a 20 year old.
According to BA, he is more athletic than he looks and could become an average corner OF with enough arm to play RF. Sickels echoes this and suggests that Snider is a fairly decent OF and certainly not a liability with the glove.
Hamilton, Snider and Davis hitting in the middle of our line-up makes me go a warm fuzzy one.
lepricon
lol
Sickels called Harrison a finesse lefty! Ha ha ha! What a fool! Doesn't he know Harrison is the beastliest beasty beast of a pitching prospect EVER?
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
Hmm
"Harrison picked up some velocity in the Arizona Fall League, he gets some ground balls, and I’ve long liked his overall potential as a strike-thrower with a bit more stuff than you see from the average finesse lefty. I don’t see him as an ace, but I think he can be a very fine number three or four starter."
That sounds like Mario Ramos to me!
If harrison turns into a quality 3-4 SP Im happy,
Hurley still has a legit shot at being a number 2 and one would think BMac and Murray will be in the rotation when those two things happen. Imagine:
(enter name)
Hurley
Harrison
BMac
Gabbard
Murray
Those guys in a rotation for us would make me happy. A very young group who can mold into something very special. Im just not sure how they would run that rotation seeing how its lefty heavy.
Adam loves him some Lard
You're so dumb when you talk
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Apr 11, 2008 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions
And you're such
a cunt when you can't let anything go. That sounds to me like it's describing a ground baller pitcher that happens to be left handed. That, to the best of my knowledge, would not be Mario Ramos.
Ouch!
Stop hurting me with your powerful brain full of valid points and awesome logic!!!
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Apr 11, 2008 8:02 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm still wondering what part of your claims about
Harrison ended up being proven correct. The part where he you claimed he was a soft-tossing lefty? The part where he had iffy command? The part where he was like Mario Ramos? For someone acting like such a pissant, you'd think you'd at least got something right. So Sickles says that he has more velocity than your run-of-the-mill Finesse guy. He's been clocked at 92. What part of your idiotic claims does that prove again?
But by all means, continue acting as this blog's Josey Wales who never lets anything go - even when he's proven irrevocably wrong. I think being a leaky vagina actually suits you quite well. Should I expect the post complaining about NBA officials before or after the Mavs fall to the Spurs this year?
Oh, snap!
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Apr 12, 2008 12:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Takes one to know one!!!
"Sabean did a good job on selling high on Liriano." Excel Hearts Choi
by thedirkatron on Apr 12, 2008 1:12 AM CDT up reply actions
"beastliest beasty beast"
+1
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Apr 11, 2008 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions
No
just a normal development curve. Still striking people out at a decent clip. Just waiting for him to turn the corner.
Pretty much.
Start to fine-tune things.
"You are this month's NYTXFAN." - t ball
by inactive lsb user on Apr 12, 2008 4:23 AM CDT up reply actions

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