Draft Stuff
by FirebatM3
on May 16, 2008 2:07 PM CDT
Baseball America released its first Mock Draft today.
11. RANGERS. Texas always seems to be on the hunt for pitching, and there might be just one of the first-round-caliber college starters on the board. The Rangers always seem to be cutting draft deals with Boras, too. Hosmer would still need a home, and it's frightening to think of the damage he could do in Arlington.
Projected Pick: ERIC HOSMER.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266117.html
Eric Hosmer Video Scouting Report
Eric Hosmer Traditional Scouting Report
An Explanation of Hosmer's "Load" which generates legitimate power.
Tanner Scheppers was not in the first round projections, as his injury is real touch and go at the moment.
They have the As selecting Brett Wallace (1B, Arizona State) and the Mariners selecting Tim Melville (RHP, High School).
More and more, it seems to me that this draft is just extremely top heavy. There's really 5 or 6 good prospects. Looking at this Mock Draft, is there anyone that you feel good about beyond Alvarez, Matsuz, Posey and Hosmer?
Other profiles
Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Tim Melville, RHP, High School
Kyle Skipworth (links to a Youtube video), C, Patriot High School
Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State
2nd-3rd Rounders
James Darnell, 3B, South Carolina
Reese Havens, SS/3B, South Carolina
Brett DeVall, LHP, High School
Alex "Bubba" Meyer, RHP, High School
Chris Dominguez, "3B", Louisville
Zach Stewart, RHP, Texas Tech (Reliever)
Later Rounders
Kyle Lobstein, LHP, High School
(Both these guys are guys I really like, but will go in the later rounds because of signability concerns and college scholarships. I'd take an investment in both and try to buy them out like the Rangers did with Marcus Lemon and tried to do with John Gast and Garret Nash)
Ryan O'Sullivan, RHP, High School
(Brother of Angels Prospect Sean O'Sullivan)
Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA - Just fell off the table this year. A very good athlete. Someone that might turn it around without all the pressure on him.
Ryan Babineau, C, UCLA - A lot like Teagarden when he was drafted
EDITs: I'll be adding a couple of other scouting reports.
Big Board for Minor League Ball Mock Draft
Round 1:
1. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Heritage High School - Discussed in depth
2. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State - Even with the injury, I think he's the best talent on the board if Hosmer is taken.
3. Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona - Was thought of as purely a 1B before this year. If he can remain at third, he's the second best bat in this draft. A line-drive swing, short and quick impact, doesn't strike out that much while walking quite a bit(45 walks vs. 33 Ks in 235 ABs), and is pretty athletic. There are questions about his power (he has hit for power in college, but scouts question how well it translates into the pros).
4. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami - I think he's the best college bat not named Buster Posey or Pedro Alvarez.
6. Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane - I like his secondary stuff, but he can't command any of it consistently.
7. Aaron Hicks, OF, Woodrow Wilson High School - The best of the "5-tool" HS players
8. Cristian Friedrichs, LHP, Western Kentucky - I'm not sure his stuff will translate well vs. pro hitters
9. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Orange Lutheran High School - I like him more than a lot of people, but his demands + his poor performance really make it difficult to see him in the top 20. Perfect Game Crosschecker's #1 High School prospect in the nation (ahead of Hosmer, Skipsworth, Melville, and so on)
10. Andrew Casner, RHP, TCU - 97-99mph on the Fastball. A reliever.
Round 2
1. Reese Havens, SS/3B, South Carolina - Good range at 3B (poor at SS), good arm, excellent contact hitter with occasional power. Kind of like Bill Mueller of Red Sox fame. Or Dustin Pedroia if he played 3B, had a good arm and wasn't a gigantic douchebag.
2. Tyson Ross, RHP, California - Big guy with a good fastball. Didn't do well this year, but is still probably a supplemental round guy.
3. Zach Stewart, RHP, Texas Tech - The move to the rotation was disastrious, but I like him more than the other college relievers because he commands both of his excellent pitches.
4. Zach Putnam, RHP, Michigan - I have him in the Tommy Hunter mold. Low 90s fastball, goes right after guys. He doesn't have Hunter's command, though (although Tommy Hunter didn't have Tommy Hunter's command in college).
5. Tim Murphy, LHP, UCLA - Young for his class. Good fastball/changeup. Has the makings of a good 4 pitch repeitoire. Struggled in the later stages of the college season.
6. James Darnell, 3B, South Carolina - Might have the best power on his team. I like his bat, not sure about his defense.
7. Sonny Gray, RHP, Smyrna High School - Short guy, good fastball. Has a pretty good commitment to Vanderbilt.
8. Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Coconino High School - A guy that's pretty new to pitching. Athletic, but has a pretty hefty commitment to Arizona
9. Petey Paramore, C, Arizona State University - Good defense, good patience. Less power than Teagarden, but probably similar as a player.
10. Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville - Dude is huge. 6'5", 235. Moves decently, a lot of raw power.
3 recs |
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Tim Melville
After a poor start to the season, partially due to a colder climate, Melville is once again working his fastball up to the mid-90s with a sharp 70 mph curve and a developing yet average change.
by jparks77 on May 16, 2008 2:21 PM CDT 0 recs
I want Hosmer so bad...
I’m going to cry man-tears if we don’t get him.
But, yah, there are other guys I like besides those four you mentioned. There’s a gaggle of high school pitchers I wouldn’t mind us snagging.
And Black Beckham is pretty damn sweet.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 2:22 PM CDT 0 recs
hosmer
if he falls and the rangers pass on him, i just might cry
right behind him i’ve got smoak as a guy who could be there.
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
by rentz on
May 16, 2008 2:36 PM CDT
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yeah
he seems to be climbing up the mocks, it seems like he used to be a guy who was slated for the middle picks
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
by rentz on
May 16, 2008 2:47 PM CDT
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He's really taken
a lot of walks this year. He’s going to finish his college career with more walks than Ks. That’s pretty amazing for a guy with such a long swing.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 2:50 PM CDT
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Hosmer @11
- Best overall talent
- Best position plalyer
- Best 1B
- Best pure hitter
by Excel Hearts Choi on
May 16, 2008 2:54 PM CDT
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His hitting ability has been likened to ARod's and Hamilton's when they came out of HS.
by rooster on
May 16, 2008 2:56 PM CDT
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Really?
I’ve never heard that and I’ve been looking at this for awhile.
Everything I’ve heard suggests he’s the best HS bat avaliable, but has some adjustments to make.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 2:59 PM CDT
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Perfect Game
had this to say about Hosmer:
“Hosmer compares favorably with just about any 17-year-old hitter I’ve seen develop in the United States over the last 20 years.”
by jparks77 on
May 16, 2008 3:09 PM CDT
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A review for Perfect Game mentions it.
http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/2007/columnists/davidrawnsley/weeklycolumn/hosmer_special_hitter.aspx
Maybe it is an opinion not held by others, except dirkatron.
by rooster on
May 16, 2008 3:09 PM CDT
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Yeah I know
I linked to the article, but if you read it he clearly says
“For me, you’re comparing Hosmer to players like Rodriguez and Josh Hamilton, with some Delmon Young at the same age mixed in. That’s a hard group to fit into. Rodriguez is difficult to compare with anyone in the history of baseball. Hamilton, for pretty much the opposite reasons, is equally incomparable. Young is still defining himself, swinging between high and lows in many regards.”
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 3:14 PM CDT
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So
how poor have my reading comp skills gotten?
It sounds like he’s placing Hosmer’s hitting skills in the same category as those guys’, but saying it’s pretty darn hard to draw conclusions from those comps since their careers are either nascent (Delmon), superlative (ARod), or completely unique because of drug problems (Hambone).
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on
May 16, 2008 4:05 PM CDT
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That's pretty much
what I got from it. He’s not necessarily Hamilton or Rodriguez, but he is the top of his class, and probably the best in the past 5 or so years. According to this one scout anyways.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 4:10 PM CDT
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I read it to say that at his age he is Hamilton or Rodriguez, but it's hard to project
what that will mean as a professional.
by rooster on
May 16, 2008 4:19 PM CDT
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Personally
My answer would be: None of the above.
I think Pedro Alvarez is all four of those things. (He’ll never stick at 3b in the pro’s…. not unless a team is willing to take a huge defensive hit to fit him there.)
But Hosmer is close to Alvarez in all four categories in my mind. He’s got Derek Lee upside, he’s very advanced for his age, and there’s a chance we might actually be in position to draft him. I doubt it’ll happen, cause I think someone will fall in love with him the way I have and agree to show him the money long before the 11th pick in the draft.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on
May 16, 2008 3:57 PM CDT
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Of the ten teams ahead of Texas
who may take Hosmer?
I think that BA’s top four (Beckham, Posey, Matusz, and Alvarez) will go in some order first, since they are really the only guys out there who have no real questionmarks
That leaves the Giants, Marlins, Reds, White Sox, Nationals, and Astros in line for Hosmer. Also in the mix are two good college 1bs (Smoak and Alonso).
Unfortunately, I can see 4 of those teams being willing to pay Boras (SF, CWS, Washinton and Houston). My hope would be that SF and Houston will want a college guy because their organizations are disasters and they could use some youth coming up soon. For some reason BA has CWS and Wash looking mostly at college kids – maybe they’ll pass. But I could see any of those four going for Hosmer
by JBImaknee on
May 16, 2008 3:21 PM CDT
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Kenny Williams
I thought Kenny Williams hates Boras, thus he won’t select a Boras client.
by Excel Hearts Choi on
May 16, 2008 3:25 PM CDT
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Sox
I don’t think they sign above slot…
White Women!
by nikpin on
May 16, 2008 3:33 PM CDT
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They haven't really since Borchard
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on
May 16, 2008 3:57 PM CDT
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Well
SF has Villalona at 1b in their system, so they may pass on 1b.
The CWS don’t seem to be big draft spenders, and Houston is ridiculously cheap in the draft. They never, ever seem to go over slot.
Washington… who knows. I can’t really see them making a play like Hosmer, but maybe.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on
May 16, 2008 4:00 PM CDT
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Of course
that might put him at the same level as Hosmer and create a log-jam situation. On second thought, you are right. I doubt the Giants draft Hosmer.
by jparks77 on
May 16, 2008 5:34 PM CDT
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Marlins
actually, I see them as the most likely team to draft Hosmer. They’re a bunch of tough negotiators that’s stood up to Boras before. They have a pretty big organizational hole at 1B, they always take the best prospect, and their team is really young, but have recently shown themselves to be willing to spend.
I can definately see Hosmer to the Marlins.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 4:36 PM CDT
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Firebat
I’m assuming Hosmer/Smoak go before #11 in your mock. Would you be leaning towards Scheppers at that point, even with the injury?
by cmkelly29 on May 16, 2008 2:24 PM CDT 0 recs
Yes
at this point, I like him better than Hunt (who I’m not sure will ever have the control necessary to be a decent starter) and Melville.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 2:31 PM CDT
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I don't think you can afford
to take a pitcher with your first pick who may have a serious injury.
Put another way – JD cannot afford to take Scheppers. Not with the #11 pick. Spending your only first round pick on a guy who everyone knew was injured is a good way to get fired, especially if there is a target on your back already. Now, if it were last year, and the team had 5 first round picks, then yeah, you take that risk. And maybe we see a team like the Twins do that since they have several picks.
Now, he may well fall into the bottom half of the first round or into the supplementals, and some team gets a great pitcher in a spot they shouldn’t have (i.e., Joba Chamberlain), but that is just how things play out. I say avoid Scheppers.
by JBImaknee on
May 16, 2008 3:11 PM CDT
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Yankees
Didn’t the Yankees do exactly that last year? I believe he still was the best player on the board.
by Excel Hearts Choi on
May 16, 2008 3:13 PM CDT
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Andrew Brackman
yes, and he had a much more serious injury.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 3:15 PM CDT
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Guys recover
from Stress Fractures, and everything I’ve heard about Scheppers says that he had clean mechanics.
Obviously, if you find out the injury is systemic, you don’t take him. But at this point, I’d rather take a shot at Scheppers being healthy than Shooter Hunt finding his command or Tim Melville being consistent.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 3:16 PM CDT
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I'm just saying that it doesn't look good
and I don’t think JD can afford to not look good given his current situation. Especially considering this organization’s relatively poor history of drafting college pitchers early.
The problem I have with drafting any type of injury this early is that one of the biggest advantages of a college guy is that they can move through the system quickly (Andrew Miller, Tim Lincecum, Jared Weaver). Ideally you stick a 1st round college starter into low-A right off the bat and move him up quickly as long as he is doing well. When a college guy is either injured or has thrown too many pitches and has to be shut down early, I think you lose some of that advantage.
How long do they anticipate Scheppers will be out?
by JBImaknee on
May 16, 2008 3:35 PM CDT
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excuse me, won't be able to throw for 6 weeks...
who knows how long after that.
by cmkelly29 on
May 16, 2008 3:38 PM CDT
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Given that most
draft guys don’t start until August, I’m not really concerned about that. It’s just deciding if he’s healthy or not.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 3:40 PM CDT
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I don't think
Scheppers is necessarily a “quick-mover” type of pick. He hasn’t been pitching all that long, and the reason you draft him is because he’s young for a college guy, doesn’t have that much miledge on his arm, and he throws in the mid 90s consistantly.
I’ve yet to hear anything that shows me that he’s not the best prospect of the bunch. I would be a lot more pissed if our scouting director/GM took someone to appease the media and the fans, and not someone who they believe is the best player available.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 3:42 PM CDT
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Huh?
Especially considering this organization’s relatively poor history of drafting college pitchers early.
Why the f^^k should this organization’s draft history play any part in our draft plans? Do you really believe in curses and that sort of thing? If our scouts like a college arm the best out of all the guys on the board when we pick, and we end up going in another direction because “oh my God, you guys, do you remember Johnathan Johnson!?”, then everyone in our front office is stupid.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on
May 16, 2008 3:47 PM CDT
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I'm not saying that it should
I never said anything like that. I’m saying that it likely will play a role in JD’s decision though. The media and organizations have memory…
If the Rangers pick a college pitcher whose injury doesn’t heal and it ends up being a wasted pick, then everyone will start screaming “RA Dickey!” You know the blame will fall on JD for not doing his homework. Do you think he needs that aggravation?
I say take the best guy available regardless of what happened 5 years ago or 2 years ago. I’m not like all the crazy people around here who instantly dismissed a “toolsy” Julio Borbon because “toolsy” Drew Meyer was a bust. But my perspective is that any known injury has to make a pitcher fall a little bit in the draft. Scheppers was never going to go higher than 8th or 9th in this draft anway – don’t you think probably not being able to pitch competitively until 2009 drops him a bit? That doesn’t mean I take Shooter Hunt – I probably just avoid a mediocre college pitching crop altogether this year.
by JBImaknee on
May 16, 2008 4:00 PM CDT
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It's pretty much
a mediocre crop all over the place this year. The HS pitching class is even worse, beyond Hosmer, there’s no really good High school position player, and the best college bats are a long shot to reach us.
At this point, I’m still not sure why or how Tanner Scheppers isn’t one of the best players avaliable.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 4:02 PM CDT
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You don't like Black Beckham?
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on
May 16, 2008 4:06 PM CDT
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Black Beckham
I’d be shocked if lil Timmy make it past the Royals or the Reds.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 4:10 PM CDT
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Oh, me too
I thought you were saying “beyond Hosmer, there’s no really good High school position player”, I thought meant that “at all”... but I assume now you meant “that could possibly reach us“
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on
May 16, 2008 4:13 PM CDT
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And yes
I do like him, but not nearly to the degree that some other people do. I just never saw the point of middle infield prospects who “hit well for their position.”
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 4:11 PM CDT
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MI prospects
these prospects that hit well for their position can be valuable trade chips down the line. a good defensive ss with a decent bat would be a nice chip to have in trade talks
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
by rentz on
May 16, 2008 6:07 PM CDT
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Scheppert
Not in the mock 1st round.
If he’s available to us in the 2nd round (which I doubt). Do we take a chance on him despite the injury?
by Coolbean04 on May 16, 2008 2:28 PM CDT 0 recs
Yes
and you’d probably have to pay him 1st round money to get him to sign.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 2:31 PM CDT
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would be worth it
as long as he’s not wanting an ml deal or anything
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
by rentz on
May 16, 2008 2:37 PM CDT
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If Sheppers isn't available in the 2nd round,
Alex Meyer might be a good pick. Tall, hard-throwing HS RHP.
by rooster on
May 16, 2008 2:51 PM CDT
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getting paid a lot and wanting to win and feild a competitive team is douuchey
.500 or bust!
Bad Vibes Kill Rallies!
"Well, we are one of the cheapest teams in Major League Baseball"
-Tom Hicks 4/8/2008
by Jayslick on
May 19, 2008 10:06 AM CDT
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No
but flapping your mouth in the media and trashing the team (because you are so awesome that the team’s crappy play has NOTHING to do with you, you’ve been PERFECT the entire time) before you’ve been traded certainly is.
"You got a guy coming up there who can’t hit water if he fell out of a boat." - Tom Grieve on Richie Sexson, 5.8.2008
by lisa w on
May 19, 2008 10:46 AM CDT
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I don't even want to think about this
because Hosmer is not going to get out of the top 5. No freaking way that happens.
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
by Longhorn on May 16, 2008 3:15 PM CDT 0 recs
7 million dollar
bonus demands for a 1B, plus there are a bevy of college bats avaliable, three of which (Wallace, Smoak and Alonso) that plays the same position. I don’t see how he goes in the top 5 at this point.
by FirebatM3 on
May 16, 2008 3:17 PM CDT
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melville
would not be a bad consolation prize if one of the big bats dont fall.
by rchawk12 on May 16, 2008 3:20 PM CDT 0 recs
I get the feeling that
in the lead-up to the draft we’re going to get our hopes all up and then the team will make a Kasey Kiker type pick.
by zywica on May 16, 2008 4:40 PM CDT 0 recs
Clarify what you mean by Kasey Kiker type pick.
Do you mean to say it was a wasted pick or a surprising pick?
by rooster on
May 16, 2008 4:42 PM CDT
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hopefull not a wasted pick
‘cause he’s still very young and still very beastly. I was hoping we picked Kiker in the lead up to that draft. I’m glad we took him…
I’m fairly certain many people here where wanting Drabek at that time instead of Kiker.
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
by Longhorn on
May 16, 2008 5:36 PM CDT
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Kiker type pick
i’d say that means a pick that no one expected. I didnt see kiker going anywhere near that high,
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
by rentz on
May 16, 2008 6:08 PM CDT
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okay, that pisses me off
what was wrong with taking Kiker? Who else was there? Miller didn’t fall. Lincecum and Sherzer wasn’t available. You wanted Drabek?
So, in 2006, we all got our hopes up for who? Please remind me…
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
by Longhorn on
May 16, 2008 5:45 PM CDT
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Some people wanted
Joba Chamberlain. I really wanted Travis Snider but I also liked the Kiker pick.
by jparks77 on
May 16, 2008 5:48 PM CDT
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Joba
You serious? I don’t remember one person wanting Joba at 12 with his injury issues coming out of college. Maybe 2nd round, but definitely not 12 overall….
if we took him at 12 at that time, they’re would have been a lot more haters at that time…
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
by Longhorn on
May 16, 2008 5:51 PM CDT
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Maybe not
on this board, but several people were high on him over on the NMLR at the time of the draft. As I said, I really wanted Travis Snider. I thought Joba was an injury risk with weight issues.
by jparks77 on
May 16, 2008 5:57 PM CDT
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eww
i sound like fred durst rhyming with the same words.
But, i agree Jparks, Snider was an option, i wouldn’t have minded drafting him at that time. But, i’m not understanding what Z’s trying to say here with this ‘kasey kiker pick’ thing, because I have no idea why I got my “hopes all up” that year.
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
by Longhorn on
May 16, 2008 6:09 PM CDT
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He might be suggesting
that Kiker was a reach at #12. If I recall, most mocks didn’t have him going that high.
by jparks77 on
May 16, 2008 6:15 PM CDT
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BA had him at 16
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
by Longhorn on
May 16, 2008 6:21 PM CDT
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I think that's probably what he means.
I think Kiker has fared as well as or better than most of the others his age drafted after him in the 1st round.
by rooster on
May 16, 2008 6:28 PM CDT
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I wanted Joba at 12
Here’s a link.
Of course, he was fourth on my list of guys I wanted us to look at:
Guys I Want (in order):
-Kyle Drabek (dream big, fellas. From what I’ve heard/seen he’s got ace potential, and that’s worth a shot here.)
-Snider (the 1b/of from Washington HS would give us an impact bat, and he sounds like a very high character guy)
-Kasey Kiker (High ceiling HS arms don’t scare me, obviously)
-Joba Chamblerlain (Reminds me a lot of Thomas Diamond… plus hes just plain got a cool name:)
Of course if you read down I also said I wanted us to stay the hell away from Lincecum, so… you know.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on
May 16, 2008 7:36 PM CDT
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No, it's actually very reasonable
Unless I’m mistaken he means a pick that none of us are crazy about, but not someone we don’t really loathe, either.
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