Draft Stuff
by FirebatM3 on May 16, 2008 2:07 PM CDT
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PrintBaseball America released its first Mock Draft today.
11. RANGERS. Texas always seems to be on the hunt for pitching, and there might be just one of the first-round-caliber college starters on the board. The Rangers always seem to be cutting draft deals with Boras, too. Hosmer would still need a home, and it's frightening to think of the damage he could do in Arlington.
Projected Pick: ERIC HOSMER.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266117.html
Eric Hosmer Video Scouting Report
Eric Hosmer Traditional Scouting Report
An Explanation of Hosmer's "Load" which generates legitimate power.
Tanner Scheppers was not in the first round projections, as his injury is real touch and go at the moment.
They have the As selecting Brett Wallace (1B, Arizona State) and the Mariners selecting Tim Melville (RHP, High School).
More and more, it seems to me that this draft is just extremely top heavy. There's really 5 or 6 good prospects. Looking at this Mock Draft, is there anyone that you feel good about beyond Alvarez, Matsuz, Posey and Hosmer?
Other profiles
Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Tim Melville, RHP, High School
Kyle Skipworth (links to a Youtube video), C, Patriot High School
Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State
2nd-3rd Rounders
James Darnell, 3B, South Carolina
Reese Havens, SS/3B, South Carolina
Brett DeVall, LHP, High School
Alex "Bubba" Meyer, RHP, High School
Chris Dominguez, "3B", Louisville
Zach Stewart, RHP, Texas Tech (Reliever)
Later Rounders
Kyle Lobstein, LHP, High School
(Both these guys are guys I really like, but will go in the later rounds because of signability concerns and college scholarships. I'd take an investment in both and try to buy them out like the Rangers did with Marcus Lemon and tried to do with John Gast and Garret Nash)
Ryan O'Sullivan, RHP, High School
(Brother of Angels Prospect Sean O'Sullivan)
Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA - Just fell off the table this year. A very good athlete. Someone that might turn it around without all the pressure on him.
Ryan Babineau, C, UCLA - A lot like Teagarden when he was drafted
EDITs: I'll be adding a couple of other scouting reports.
Big Board for Minor League Ball Mock Draft
Round 1:
1. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Heritage High School - Discussed in depth
2. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State - Even with the injury, I think he's the best talent on the board if Hosmer is taken.
3. Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona - Was thought of as purely a 1B before this year. If he can remain at third, he's the second best bat in this draft. A line-drive swing, short and quick impact, doesn't strike out that much while walking quite a bit(45 walks vs. 33 Ks in 235 ABs), and is pretty athletic. There are questions about his power (he has hit for power in college, but scouts question how well it translates into the pros).
4. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami - I think he's the best college bat not named Buster Posey or Pedro Alvarez.
6. Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane - I like his secondary stuff, but he can't command any of it consistently.
7. Aaron Hicks, OF, Woodrow Wilson High School - The best of the "5-tool" HS players
8. Cristian Friedrichs, LHP, Western Kentucky - I'm not sure his stuff will translate well vs. pro hitters
9. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Orange Lutheran High School - I like him more than a lot of people, but his demands + his poor performance really make it difficult to see him in the top 20. Perfect Game Crosschecker's #1 High School prospect in the nation (ahead of Hosmer, Skipsworth, Melville, and so on)
10. Andrew Casner, RHP, TCU - 97-99mph on the Fastball. A reliever.
Round 2
1. Reese Havens, SS/3B, South Carolina - Good range at 3B (poor at SS), good arm, excellent contact hitter with occasional power. Kind of like Bill Mueller of Red Sox fame. Or Dustin Pedroia if he played 3B, had a good arm and wasn't a gigantic douchebag.
2. Tyson Ross, RHP, California - Big guy with a good fastball. Didn't do well this year, but is still probably a supplemental round guy.
3. Zach Stewart, RHP, Texas Tech - The move to the rotation was disastrious, but I like him more than the other college relievers because he commands both of his excellent pitches.
4. Zach Putnam, RHP, Michigan - I have him in the Tommy Hunter mold. Low 90s fastball, goes right after guys. He doesn't have Hunter's command, though (although Tommy Hunter didn't have Tommy Hunter's command in college).
5. Tim Murphy, LHP, UCLA - Young for his class. Good fastball/changeup. Has the makings of a good 4 pitch repeitoire. Struggled in the later stages of the college season.
6. James Darnell, 3B, South Carolina - Might have the best power on his team. I like his bat, not sure about his defense.
7. Sonny Gray, RHP, Smyrna High School - Short guy, good fastball. Has a pretty good commitment to Vanderbilt.
8. Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Coconino High School - A guy that's pretty new to pitching. Athletic, but has a pretty hefty commitment to Arizona
9. Petey Paramore, C, Arizona State University - Good defense, good patience. Less power than Teagarden, but probably similar as a player.
10. Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville - Dude is huge. 6'5", 235. Moves decently, a lot of raw power.
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Comments
Tim Melville
After a poor start to the season, partially due to a colder climate, Melville is once again working his fastball up to the mid-90s with a sharp 70 mph curve and a developing yet average change.
I want Hosmer so bad...
I’m going to cry man-tears if we don’t get him.
But, yah, there are other guys I like besides those four you mentioned. There’s a gaggle of high school pitchers I wouldn’t mind us snagging.
And Black Beckham is pretty damn sweet.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
hosmer
if he falls and the rangers pass on him, i just might cry
right behind him i’ve got smoak as a guy who could be there.
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
yeah
he seems to be climbing up the mocks, it seems like he used to be a guy who was slated for the middle picks
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
He's really taken
a lot of walks this year. He’s going to finish his college career with more walks than Ks. That’s pretty amazing for a guy with such a long swing.
Hosmer @11
- Best overall talent
- Best position plalyer
- Best 1B
- Best pure hitter
by Excel Hearts Choi on May 16, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Really?
I’ve never heard that and I’ve been looking at this for awhile.
Everything I’ve heard suggests he’s the best HS bat avaliable, but has some adjustments to make.
Perfect Game
had this to say about Hosmer:
“Hosmer compares favorably with just about any 17-year-old hitter I’ve seen develop in the United States over the last 20 years.”
A review for Perfect Game mentions it.
http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/2007/columnists/davidrawnsley/weeklycolumn/hosmer_special_hitter.aspx
Maybe it is an opinion not held by others, except dirkatron.
Yeah I know
I linked to the article, but if you read it he clearly says
“For me, you’re comparing Hosmer to players like Rodriguez and Josh Hamilton, with some Delmon Young at the same age mixed in. That’s a hard group to fit into. Rodriguez is difficult to compare with anyone in the history of baseball. Hamilton, for pretty much the opposite reasons, is equally incomparable. Young is still defining himself, swinging between high and lows in many regards.”
So
how poor have my reading comp skills gotten?
It sounds like he’s placing Hosmer’s hitting skills in the same category as those guys’, but saying it’s pretty darn hard to draw conclusions from those comps since their careers are either nascent (Delmon), superlative (ARod), or completely unique because of drug problems (Hambone).
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions
That's pretty much
what I got from it. He’s not necessarily Hamilton or Rodriguez, but he is the top of his class, and probably the best in the past 5 or so years. According to this one scout anyways.
I read it to say that at his age he is Hamilton or Rodriguez, but it's hard to project
what that will mean as a professional.
Personally
My answer would be: None of the above.
I think Pedro Alvarez is all four of those things. (He’ll never stick at 3b in the pro’s…. not unless a team is willing to take a huge defensive hit to fit him there.)
But Hosmer is close to Alvarez in all four categories in my mind. He’s got Derek Lee upside, he’s very advanced for his age, and there’s a chance we might actually be in position to draft him. I doubt it’ll happen, cause I think someone will fall in love with him the way I have and agree to show him the money long before the 11th pick in the draft.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Of the ten teams ahead of Texas
who may take Hosmer?
I think that BA’s top four (Beckham, Posey, Matusz, and Alvarez) will go in some order first, since they are really the only guys out there who have no real questionmarks
That leaves the Giants, Marlins, Reds, White Sox, Nationals, and Astros in line for Hosmer. Also in the mix are two good college 1bs (Smoak and Alonso).
Unfortunately, I can see 4 of those teams being willing to pay Boras (SF, CWS, Washinton and Houston). My hope would be that SF and Houston will want a college guy because their organizations are disasters and they could use some youth coming up soon. For some reason BA has CWS and Wash looking mostly at college kids – maybe they’ll pass. But I could see any of those four going for Hosmer
Kenny Williams
I thought Kenny Williams hates Boras, thus he won’t select a Boras client.
by Excel Hearts Choi on May 16, 2008 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
They haven't really since Borchard
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
SF has Villalona at 1b in their system, so they may pass on 1b.
The CWS don’t seem to be big draft spenders, and Houston is ridiculously cheap in the draft. They never, ever seem to go over slot.
Washington… who knows. I can’t really see them making a play like Hosmer, but maybe.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Marlins
actually, I see them as the most likely team to draft Hosmer. They’re a bunch of tough negotiators that’s stood up to Boras before. They have a pretty big organizational hole at 1B, they always take the best prospect, and their team is really young, but have recently shown themselves to be willing to spend.
I can definately see Hosmer to the Marlins.
Firebat
I’m assuming Hosmer/Smoak go before #11 in your mock. Would you be leaning towards Scheppers at that point, even with the injury?
I don't think you can afford
to take a pitcher with your first pick who may have a serious injury.
Put another way – JD cannot afford to take Scheppers. Not with the #11 pick. Spending your only first round pick on a guy who everyone knew was injured is a good way to get fired, especially if there is a target on your back already. Now, if it were last year, and the team had 5 first round picks, then yeah, you take that risk. And maybe we see a team like the Twins do that since they have several picks.
Now, he may well fall into the bottom half of the first round or into the supplementals, and some team gets a great pitcher in a spot they shouldn’t have (i.e., Joba Chamberlain), but that is just how things play out. I say avoid Scheppers.
Yankees
Didn’t the Yankees do exactly that last year? I believe he still was the best player on the board.
by Excel Hearts Choi on May 16, 2008 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Guys recover
from Stress Fractures, and everything I’ve heard about Scheppers says that he had clean mechanics.
Obviously, if you find out the injury is systemic, you don’t take him. But at this point, I’d rather take a shot at Scheppers being healthy than Shooter Hunt finding his command or Tim Melville being consistent.
I'm just saying that it doesn't look good
and I don’t think JD can afford to not look good given his current situation. Especially considering this organization’s relatively poor history of drafting college pitchers early.
The problem I have with drafting any type of injury this early is that one of the biggest advantages of a college guy is that they can move through the system quickly (Andrew Miller, Tim Lincecum, Jared Weaver). Ideally you stick a 1st round college starter into low-A right off the bat and move him up quickly as long as he is doing well. When a college guy is either injured or has thrown too many pitches and has to be shut down early, I think you lose some of that advantage.
How long do they anticipate Scheppers will be out?
Given that most
draft guys don’t start until August, I’m not really concerned about that. It’s just deciding if he’s healthy or not.
I don't think
Scheppers is necessarily a “quick-mover” type of pick. He hasn’t been pitching all that long, and the reason you draft him is because he’s young for a college guy, doesn’t have that much miledge on his arm, and he throws in the mid 90s consistantly.
I’ve yet to hear anything that shows me that he’s not the best prospect of the bunch. I would be a lot more pissed if our scouting director/GM took someone to appease the media and the fans, and not someone who they believe is the best player available.
Huh?
Especially considering this organization’s relatively poor history of drafting college pitchers early.
Why the f^^k should this organization’s draft history play any part in our draft plans? Do you really believe in curses and that sort of thing? If our scouts like a college arm the best out of all the guys on the board when we pick, and we end up going in another direction because “oh my God, you guys, do you remember Johnathan Johnson!?”, then everyone in our front office is stupid.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not saying that it should
I never said anything like that. I’m saying that it likely will play a role in JD’s decision though. The media and organizations have memory…
If the Rangers pick a college pitcher whose injury doesn’t heal and it ends up being a wasted pick, then everyone will start screaming “RA Dickey!” You know the blame will fall on JD for not doing his homework. Do you think he needs that aggravation?
I say take the best guy available regardless of what happened 5 years ago or 2 years ago. I’m not like all the crazy people around here who instantly dismissed a “toolsy” Julio Borbon because “toolsy” Drew Meyer was a bust. But my perspective is that any known injury has to make a pitcher fall a little bit in the draft. Scheppers was never going to go higher than 8th or 9th in this draft anway – don’t you think probably not being able to pitch competitively until 2009 drops him a bit? That doesn’t mean I take Shooter Hunt – I probably just avoid a mediocre college pitching crop altogether this year.
It's pretty much
a mediocre crop all over the place this year. The HS pitching class is even worse, beyond Hosmer, there’s no really good High school position player, and the best college bats are a long shot to reach us.
At this point, I’m still not sure why or how Tanner Scheppers isn’t one of the best players avaliable.
You don't like Black Beckham?
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, me too
I thought you were saying “beyond Hosmer, there’s no really good High school position player”, I thought meant that “at all”... but I assume now you meant “that could possibly reach us“
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions
And yes
I do like him, but not nearly to the degree that some other people do. I just never saw the point of middle infield prospects who “hit well for their position.”
MI prospects
these prospects that hit well for their position can be valuable trade chips down the line. a good defensive ss with a decent bat would be a nice chip to have in trade talks
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
Scheppert
Not in the mock 1st round.
If he’s available to us in the 2nd round (which I doubt). Do we take a chance on him despite the injury?
would be worth it
as long as he’s not wanting an ml deal or anything
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
If Sheppers isn't available in the 2nd round,
Alex Meyer might be a good pick. Tall, hard-throwing HS RHP.
minus the doucheyness...
Vicente Padilla is... EL TORO!
by oc on May 16, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions
getting paid a lot and wanting to win and feild a competitive team is douuchey
.500 or bust!
Bad Vibes Kill Rallies!
"Well, we are one of the cheapest teams in Major League Baseball"
-Tom Hicks 4/8/2008
No
but flapping your mouth in the media and trashing the team (because you are so awesome that the team’s crappy play has NOTHING to do with you, you’ve been PERFECT the entire time) before you’ve been traded certainly is.
"You got a guy coming up there who can’t hit water if he fell out of a boat." - Tom Grieve on Richie Sexson, 5.8.2008
I don't even want to think about this
because Hosmer is not going to get out of the top 5. No freaking way that happens.
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
7 million dollar
bonus demands for a 1B, plus there are a bevy of college bats avaliable, three of which (Wallace, Smoak and Alonso) that plays the same position. I don’t see how he goes in the top 5 at this point.
melville
would not be a bad consolation prize if one of the big bats dont fall.
I get the feeling that
in the lead-up to the draft we’re going to get our hopes all up and then the team will make a Kasey Kiker type pick.
Clarify what you mean by Kasey Kiker type pick.
Do you mean to say it was a wasted pick or a surprising pick?
hopefull not a wasted pick
‘cause he’s still very young and still very beastly. I was hoping we picked Kiker in the lead up to that draft. I’m glad we took him…
I’m fairly certain many people here where wanting Drabek at that time instead of Kiker.
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
Kiker type pick
i’d say that means a pick that no one expected. I didnt see kiker going anywhere near that high,
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
okay, that pisses me off
what was wrong with taking Kiker? Who else was there? Miller didn’t fall. Lincecum and Sherzer wasn’t available. You wanted Drabek?
So, in 2006, we all got our hopes up for who? Please remind me…
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
Joba
You serious? I don’t remember one person wanting Joba at 12 with his injury issues coming out of college. Maybe 2nd round, but definitely not 12 overall….
if we took him at 12 at that time, they’re would have been a lot more haters at that time…
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
eww
i sound like fred durst rhyming with the same words.
But, i agree Jparks, Snider was an option, i wouldn’t have minded drafting him at that time. But, i’m not understanding what Z’s trying to say here with this ‘kasey kiker pick’ thing, because I have no idea why I got my “hopes all up” that year.
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
He might be suggesting
that Kiker was a reach at #12. If I recall, most mocks didn’t have him going that high.
I think that's probably what he means.
I think Kiker has fared as well as or better than most of the others his age drafted after him in the 1st round.
I wanted Joba at 12
Here’s a link.
Of course, he was fourth on my list of guys I wanted us to look at:
Guys I Want (in order):
-Kyle Drabek (dream big, fellas. From what I’ve heard/seen he’s got ace potential, and that’s worth a shot here.)
-Snider (the 1b/of from Washington HS would give us an impact bat, and he sounds like a very high character guy)
-Kasey Kiker (High ceiling HS arms don’t scare me, obviously)
-Joba Chamblerlain (Reminds me a lot of Thomas Diamond… plus hes just plain got a cool name:)
Of course if you read down I also said I wanted us to stay the hell away from Lincecum, so… you know.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions
No, it's actually very reasonable
Unless I’m mistaken he means a pick that none of us are crazy about, but not someone we don’t really loathe, either.
Kiker wasn’t a sexy “name” pick at the time.
He’s not saying Kiker was a bad pick, just not someone the board was overly exited about, or even knew a lot about at the time.
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions
See below
If I were talking about a pick that disappointed most people I would have envoked Drew Meyer or maybe Mayberry.
by Brett Perryman on May 16, 2008 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Hah
Man, I come back and see a big reaction to something that I didn’t mean to be controversial. I was speaking along the lines of what dirkatron said. I wasn’t upset with the Kiker pick or anything (if anything I was just disappointed that Lincecum almost fell to us but didn’t).
When I reference Kiker I’m just referring to someone who was one of any number of guys who could have gone there, not the big name that everyone is anticipating for a pick just outside of the top ten. I believe tha BA ranked Kiker in the mid-20’s in that draft. Viable pick, just not a name that everyone was throwing around before the draft.
by Brett Perryman on May 16, 2008 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions
okay, i get that
but you said that we’d get all our hopes up and everything and the Kiker pick was made. Hopes up for who? That is my question.
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
Huh?
Are you asking who we all had our hopes up for when Kiker was picked?
Or who we’ll all get our hopes up for this year?
"If we where [sic] gonna trade them Salty, I would want a helluva lot more than just Joba though." -lonestarJon
by thedirkatron on May 16, 2008 10:29 PM CDT up reply actions
I see what you're saying
It was two different thoughts. “Hopes up” this season would involve Hosmer or one of the high profile guys who could fall because of money or team’s needs. By “a Kiker type pick” I mean, like we talked about above, that we spent all of our predraft discussions on guys like Drabek, Jeffress and some of the bats, and then getting our hopes up at the last moment on Lincecum. I don’t think that the consensus was disappointment or anything, but I remember when I heard our pick on the radio, it surprised me a little (and he may have been #16 on another update, but if you go back and look at their top 200 rankings, from May 25th of that year, that are still archived, they have him at #28).
by Brett Perryman on May 16, 2008 10:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah. That's the reaction I remember having, but I don't really remember
who I really hoped would be drafted. I think I remember hoping either Andrew Miller or Scherzer would fall to the Rangers. I do remember being surprised the Rangers didn’t take Drabek. I’m certain that I was predicting he would be their pick if he were on the board, but I also remember becoming quickly impressed with Kiker after rereading the predraft material just after the pick. I also remember being relieved with Stubbs went at 8.
I could see the same thing happening this year with all the buzz of a couple of guys falling out of the top-10. They would have to be paid as if drafted in the top-10, though.
If none of the top guys actually fell to the Rangers, I wouldn’t feel bad about Friedrich or Melville in a Rangers uniform.
every1 wanted drabek
texas kid, he was a legacy, etc. im pretty sure thats who every1 wanted, myself included, i believe he has had an injury laden minor league career.
i remember every1 thinking he would be our guy as lincecum wouldnt fall. ppl almost shit themselves when timmy almost fell, but drabek was still there when we picked and we took kiker.
.500 or bust!
Bad Vibes Kill Rallies!
"Well, we are one of the cheapest teams in Major League Baseball"
-Tom Hicks 4/8/2008
I don't remember if I posted here when Drabek was a senior
but I didn’t want anything to do with him because of his character, or lack thereof. I knew some people from the Woodlands who basically said he was an arrogrant prick who was uncoachable. There was too much talent in that draft to risk a pick on him.
Yep, people were unanimous about his complete douchetude
"For the record, I did not and do not like the Volquez trade, even though Hamilton is awesome and our best player and I think he’s going to be one of the best players in baseball." philikid3
by Brian Thomas on May 21, 2008 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Chris Dominguez, Louisville
could be a good a candidate in rounds 2 or 3. Rangers drafted him once before.
I like Brett DeVall
as a 2nd/3rd round possibility.
Added a couple of more profiles
I am a big fan of Zach Stewart out of Texas Tech. He’s a plus command, plus heat, plus slider guy, kinda like Craig Hansen back in the day.
hosmer
IF hes there…gotta take him
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
Hosmer
I have a feeling that even if he is available at #11 (which I doubt) the Rangers are going to pass. Sorry Dirk.
If they do indeed pass on Hosmer and instead look to the college ranks for talent, which college player would you want them to draft?
Personally, I think it is going to come down to Hunt or Friedrich.
I’d rather it come down to Hosmer or Scheppers.
Meh
I feel the same way. I know there’s almost no chance we end up drafting the Hoss.
But there’s a chance, and I’ll dream on that chance for as long as I can, thank you very much.
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on May 19, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
I doubt it is
Fredrich. I don’t see him as more than a mid-round talent. With Schepper’s injury, I think the best college player avaliable might very well be Scheppers at #11. It just depends on how gutsy JD is feeling.
if they pass on hosmer
it is ONLY for money reasons imo
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on May 20, 2008 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions
No way they pass on Hosmer,
all confidence in the front office would be temporarily put on hold if he somehow fell and they passed. I say put on hold because I was pissed last year when they passed twice on porcello and so far it is looking smart considering the players picked and porcello demanding a ML contract.
Also i see no way this team takes scheppers at 11 given the recent injury.
Since Hicks' pull back on the budget
after the 2003 draft, they have let this kind of talent slip past them virtually every year. I don’t see why Hosmer should be all that different from Weaver, Drew, Hochevar or Porcello. Those guys were elite prospects with overinflated price tags just like him.
by Brett Perryman on May 19, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Those UCLA guys
may be interesting to take some flyers on in the early-middle rounds. That team just unraveled this year for no good reason – obviously they weren’t ready to be a pre-season #1 and when they started slow they just couldn’t handle it.
well
their best hitters (Crawford and Jermaine Curtis) and their best pitcher (Tim Murphy) all decided to inexplicably suck at the same time. I thought it was injury for msot of the year, but apparently, everything is coming back healthy. Maybe their coaching staff is just really poor.
MinorLeagueBall
John Sickels has his updated player rankings up
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/5/17/519689/john-s-2008-draft-board-as
Really interesting how the quality of the draft seems to fall off the table around the Rangers pick.
Interesting 1st round
We haven’t seen a lot of drafts where catchers, shortstops and first basemen ruled the top half of the first round. In 2004 we had Drew, Bush and Nelson go in the top 15, but other than that I don’t think that we’ve had high quantities of these positions in quite a while.
by Brett Perryman on May 19, 2008 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
got a feeling we'll pick Yonder
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
Yep...
that’s my gut feeling as well.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
what's wrong with Yonder?
Other than he rakes…
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
To be honest
I want Alonso over Hosmer. Alonso is the sort of hitter who could help in a hurry. I don’t know how they all fit, but I like the idea of a line up with Alonso, Davis, MaxRam, and Hamilton in the middle of it. Alonso looks like Youkilis to me. I know his defense is supposed to be suspect, but he sold me this last weekend against UNC. The biggest series of the year, and he homers in all three games. He is just sick.
Ok...
so they take Alonso/Hosmer and he is he, Davis, and MaxRam are all up by 2010/2011. Where do they all play? Davis at 1B, MaxRam at DH, Alonso/Hosmer in RF?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
he is he?
not sure what happened there.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
People used to ask this
about Hafner and Pena and A Gonzalez and Botts. Even with Teixeira and Blalock we never had enough 1B/DH/COF. Heck, we never had a DH.
by Brett Perryman on May 19, 2008 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Ditto
And, to boot, I’d still be excited if they take a catcher with a high ceiling.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
imho
that is the ONE position we dont need to take high
already a huge log jam in the system, and unless someone like posey falls to us, why risk it?
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on May 20, 2008 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, I'm just speaking
as a matter of principle. If, at any given pick, the best player available is a catcher, you take him. That doesn’t seem too likely at the 11th pick.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
Personally
if someone like Kyle SKipworth falls to #11, I think he might be the best prospect of the bunch. You take him regardless, at worst, he becomes some awesome trade ammo.
Oh yeah
I’d love to have Skipworth, or Posey for that matter. I think both will be gone, however. I’d love for the team to find a 3B in later rounds.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
Why not the 1st rd?
Perhaps “later rounds” is ambiguous, but we did use a 2nd rounder last year on Matt West.
I wouldn’t be opposed to a college 3B in the 1st, would you? (Provided, he be an available fit in our spot).
"When I am pissed off, I get angry." - Miles 5/06/08
by inactive lsb user on May 21, 2008 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Not 1st round because
I don’t think there are any real 3B expected to go there. Alvarez is likely to move to 1B, so though I was vague I really meant just not at #11.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
Reese Havens
is a guy I really like (as you can tell) for the 2nd round. His stock is jumping, though, and he probably won’t fall that far.
Maybe a guy like Gordan Beckham in the first?
Did you catch
Mayo’s mock today? He has a rumor about the Rangers wanting Cole at #11.
www.saberscouting.com had a breakdown of Havens’ swing a while back, looks good. Is he going to move from SS?
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
Yes
on both accounts. The Reese Havens profile is linked in the first post.
Another name, possibly in the first round, is Arizona’s Brett Wallace. If we’re really in need of a 3B, he’s someone we should definately consider.
A good enough player for 3B.
Wallace
I don’t think he is a major league third baseman. He has a body like Jeremy Brown and by most accounts is not much of an athlete (unlike Tommy Hunter who has a bad body and is a good athlete.) I know he only has eight or so errors at third this year, but I just can’t see a dumpy looking guy like Wallace sticking at third.
Wallace
Per scouting report “Good Athlete in a bad athlete’s body.”
THe main problem is footwork, and I think that’s something that’s at least fixable. Also, if you have a very rangy Shortstop, that often helps hide a statue 3B.
According to reports, he’s been good this year at 3B. If he can be just passable at 3B, he’d be a good player.
That would be the first scouting report I have seen that said he was a good athlete
Every report I have seen said he is below average athletically and will need to move to first.
I saw him play last year in Omaha and he certainly doesn’t pass the eye test when you look at him. He is a great hitter, but if he can’t stay at third, I think his value diminishes quite a bit.
Arizona State
not Arizona…gahhh that drives me crazy that people constantly screw that up.
Do you screw up Florida and Florida State too?
Sorry, frustrated ASU fan.
But yes, Wallace will be a heck of a hitter, but he’s not likely to stay at 3rd.
by Dirk Diggler on May 23, 2008 12:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Nothing
He’d be a fine pick.
It just wouldn’t be a real exciting pick to me.
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on May 19, 2008 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions
why?
Is Hosmer that much more better than Yonder in your opinion or is it just a mancrush thing, which i can understand?
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
my theory on draftees is takem young.
i personally dont want a college within 200 feet of any prospect my pro team drafts. i personally feel that a pro team can draft and develop a guy better than any college can, if they couldnt they wouldnt be pro teams to begin with. all the college will do is put unnecessary miles on the kids arm and have people who arent pros teach mechanics. that scares the hell out of me.
if im given the choice i take the kid and let my people develop him
.500 or bust!
Bad Vibes Kill Rallies!
"Well, we are one of the cheapest teams in Major League Baseball"
-Tom Hicks 4/8/2008
double personally
personally…
.500 or bust!
Bad Vibes Kill Rallies!
"Well, we are one of the cheapest teams in Major League Baseball"
-Tom Hicks 4/8/2008
but
there’s just so many players you can draft to have contribute in the next 5 years or so, they need someone who can go through the system quickly, i think…
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
Unfortunately,
with Yonder’s hot streak heading into the draft, I don’t think he is still there when we pick. Given the choice between him and Hosmer, he presents an easier negotiation and more of a sure thing. Besides, with Boras, Hosmer could be demanding a spot on the 40.
you really just cant worry about who fits where and how old they are
positions change, some players never reach full potential, some guys are traded before they ever hit the majors or break. the day you start drafting for need on the major league roster is the day you also start convincing yourself that Drew Meyer is an option or Diamond for that matter.
.500 or bust!
Bad Vibes Kill Rallies!
"Well, we are one of the cheapest teams in Major League Baseball"
-Tom Hicks 4/8/2008
i'm talking about if
you have 2 players ranked right by each other, one’s a HSer, one’s a College player, they’ll take the College player…
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
That's pretty much
what Sullivan confirmed today in his article. Rangers looking at college level prospects.
A little from column A...
...a little from column B.
Obviously I have strong feelings for the Handsome Hoss, but I also think Hosmer has a higher ceiling, especially with regards to his power potential.
Yonder’s a little more of a sure thing, being a college tested guy and all, but I’m a sucker for ceiling.
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on May 20, 2008 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Brett Wallace
as far as 3B goes, if Brett Wallace can stay at third, he might be the 2nd best bat in this entire draft.
Keith Law (I know), recently said that there is a good chance he remains a 3B. What would you think about Line Drive Wallace as the selection @ #11?
That's the first of heard of Wallace possibly sticking at 3rd
If that’s true, then I’d be open to that. But I’ve heard a lot of people saying he’s 1b/COF all the way, and after watching the videos of him and his comical running style and fat-boy McGee lower body, I have a very hard time seeing him playing even a passable 3b in the bigs.
In other news, I’m excited by the Cole rumors, as I’m always a fan of high ceiling HS arms.
You know else I’ve been getting all wet for recently? Brett DeVall. I don’t think he has enough of delicious ceiling to be a realistic option at #11, though, and he’s moving up to the point where it’s highly doubtful he’ll last past the late first/sandwich phase. But I heart him pretty hard. Reminds me a lot of Danks.
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on May 22, 2008 2:52 AM CDT up reply actions
re:
okay, i think someone deleted my comment, ‘cause i coulda sworn i had one here. But, anyways, after doing some research, i would love for the Rangers to draft Cole. He reminds me of Vicente Padilla. Very very nasty.
"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush
When Sickel's site had their community first round mock, I voted Cole, but
now, if Hosmer were there as he was in the mock I would pick him hands down.
It depends who else is available at 11. If none of the big names slip and it comes down to Shooter Hunt, Cole, Yonder (or Smoak), Melville, Friedrich, Hicks, I wouldn’t feel bad about Cole, though it appears he might be slightly riskier than Melville relative to the risk inherent with HS arms. In that group, though, I would be torn between Cole, Yonder, and Melville.
Yonder
The Rangers have added a lot of great young arms to the system. Never enough pitching, I know, I know, but I really want more of a “sure thing” type player this year. I really like Yonder at 11. I think we can plug him in at 1B in Bakersfield upon arrival and let him fly.
For the 57th pick, does anyone thing Yonder’s teammate, Dennis Raben, could slide. He has not produced at the level some expected this year, but early on he was thought to be a middle first type pick. I really like Thames out of Pepperdine, and he is out for the rest of the year, but i still think his amazing season means he will be gone by the time our second pick rolls around. Another guy to look at in the second round is Aaron Weatherford out of MSU. He is a big body, so the Rangers might stay away, but his numbers are sick. Another player who could help quickly.
Thoughts on draft
I like Hosmer at #11 the best, but if he doesn’t fall and Alonso doesn’t fall, then Wallace is a great consolation.
In the 2nd round I really like Reese Havens if he falls, but if he doesn’t then I like Isaac Galloway (if he is still there), Scott Bittle (reliever from Mississippi who might rise quickly and has a nasty cutter), or Cody Satterwhite (another reliever from South Carolina who has good talent)
In the 3rd-4th round I like Scott Gorgen, a guy from UC-Irvine with good talent, who could fall due to the fact that he’s 5’10” and 190. He’s got good mound presence though and good talent as a starter.
Later on in the draft it’d be interesting to see if the rangers take Jose Duran, the brother of German Duran. He hit .430+ for A&M in big XII play. But I know some who have concerns about his power potential, and who don’t think he’ll hit anywhere close to the kind of power that even German has hit for in the minors. Who knows though, we’ll see how he does.
as an aggie
despite my disenchantment with out baseball team right now, i would love to bring Duran into the mix. he has really impressed me this year. and blake stouffer could be a steal late in the draft. he went in the fourth or fifth round last year and didn’t sign, and he has had a horrible year this year. we can probably get him in the late teens.
Tommy Hunter
i just read the scouting report on Hunter provided by milb before last years draft, and it said the knock on him was control going into the draft. pretty interesting, considering his K/BB rate so far this year.
Mayo tidbit
From Mayo’s latest chat on MLB.com we get this lone tidbit on the Rangers:
sablo04: Can you tell me more about Gerrit Cole? You said the Rangers might be interested in him but Freidrich or Hunt seem to be “surer” things. Also, what are the chances now that Eric Hosmer falls to them or that they take a shot on Tanner Scheppers? Thanks for answering!Mayo: One word: arm strength. OK, so that’s two words. Cole can throw awfully hard and has been up to 98 mph at times. He’s got a slider and a changeup, too, but it’s the heater that turns heads. There have been some concerns with his delivery as well as his makeup (he gets too emotional on the mound, among other things). Oh, and he’s advised by Scott Boras. I don’t see Hosmer slipping to No. 11. If the Royals don’t take him, the Marlins or the Nationals might. I’ll never say never, but it’s unlikely. As for Scheppers, I’d be shocked if he went that high. There’d have to be some pretty conclusive medical reports that he’ll be fine and even then, to take him at No. 11 doesn’t make sense to me.
The 40 trumps all!!!
Cole
just based on that it sounds like picking Cole might be a move influenced by Nolan Ryan, seems he would be really interested in a hard thrower like that.
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
I can't tell
if Cole is ranked lower because of his association of Boras, or if that is really where his talent projects. He sounds to me like the type of kid who could slip. I just think we have enough solid young arms in the lower levels of our system. I really want to add another projectable bat with that first pick.
I would like a bat also
but when you draft based on need and not best player available, you end up with Drew Meyer. We wanted a shortstop with speed so we took Meyer, instead of any of the badass young arms in the draft.
Draft
best player available regardless of position.
i prefer a positional player, but if a pitcher is there who’s better then take the pitcher
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
Weatherford
Despite his relatively small frame, he can dial his FB up into the mid to high 90’s and also features a slider and a changeup that are also said to be ML quality. He could have been a weekend starter for MSU, but they chose to keep him in the closer role for the year. I really like him in the 2nd round.
Draft Board
The Rangers are early enough in the draft, and this draft is so uncertain at this point, that it makes sense to have a 1-11 ordering of who the Rangers would want, should they fall to them.
In other words, if any two guys on the list fell to the Rangers, which would you take?
1. Pedro Alvarez – Too much of a track record for the best college player to pass up
2. Brian Matusz – College lefty with ace potential (I’m going to go watch him today!)
3. Tim Beckham – Seems like overall best high school talent in draft
4. Aaron Crow – Like Alvarez, I think you have to overlook down year and look at ace potential
5. Eric Hosmer – We all know why he’s good… I don’t care about Boras
6. Busty Posey – Great player, but catching is not urgent in Texas
7. Gordon Beckham – I like him a lot
8. Yonder Alonso – Gut tells me he is the best college 1b out there
9. Justin Smoak – Drew Meyer left me with a reflex away from USC East players…
10. Kyle Skipworth – I think that the team is on a timeline to compete in 2010-2012, so I think a high school catcher may be too long an investment to take. But if he is like Mauer, he could prove me wrong.
And now the tough one, because while those top ten are obvious, the 11th used to be Scheppers and he’s probably off the list now, I would choose
11. Shooter Hunt
He isn’t popular around here, but I think he’s the type of guy who can move quickly through the system (my main metric for college pitchers).
Came close to putting Wallace here, but decided that is too much of an overdraft for someone who may end up being a 1b.
I know this list probably includes too much focus on position for some people’s tastes, but I think that in cases where there is no clear standout player, organization strengths/weaknesses should factor in. (why Posey drops behind Alvarez, Beckham and Hosmer, for example…)
Of that list,
I would take Alvarez since we don’t have any third basemen in the system. Or the ones we do have may not stay at the position.
Now I know in a post just above this one that I said I hate drafting based on need and I still stand by that. But of that list above, I think Alvarez is the best player on the list, as well as the most sure thing to be a star in the majors.
Alvarez
is comparable to Teixeira in a number of ways. His demands and his bat are both thought to be very Teixeira-like, but I’d argue his glove is Teixeira-esque as well. He can play 3b, but he’d be a serious liability there and is probably going to end up at 1b unless he really improves his footwork there or someone is willing to take a hit defensively to fit his bat in at the hot corner… sort of like Ryan Braun last year.
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on May 23, 2008 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Hunt
his problems are mainly mechanics. Maybe that’s fixable, but unless it is fixable, I can’t see him being a guy that moves quickly.
He’s kind of like the pitching equivalent of John Mayberry Jr.
hunt
everything i’ve read about him says late first or a sandwich pick type player. i wouldnt take him top 15
"When we're mad we'll use our words. Then the rest of the world will play nice with us. And the only boom-booms will be in our pants." - Ralph Wiggum
+1
Avoid cheney. With that command he will probably throw a fastball into the dugout and hit one of our guys, hence the new nickname.
RHP Ethan Martin
Very Main-like. Mid 90s cheese with promising secondary offerings. Refined for a HS arm. Great athlete that is considered a position prospect as well.
Would ya?
....
Yep, I really like Ethan Martin as well. Good high school arm, a lot of upside since he’s been a two way player and is just now pitching more and more. Him and Aaron Hicks might be two of the highest upside high school arms in the draft since both were two way players, but are just not focusing more on pitching. Both have very good arms too.
I’d only be interested really in Martin at 11, if the secondary offerings continue to come along though. Rangers seem to love the power arms, but to me, I’m more worried about the secondary offerings and whether they have outpitches then their ability to throw mid to high 90s. I’d rather take a guy with a low 90s fastball with a plus to plus plus breaking ball than a guy who throws mid to high 90s with raw breaking pitches or “promising” but not really that close to being ready breaking pitches.
Yes
I was just reading up on him and I would be very happy if he were the pick. He has slid ahead of melville on my wish list which realistically goes hosmer, alonso, cole, martin, melville.
IMO cole and martin are almost interchangeable considering what cole’s demands might be. Hosmer or anyone of the top 10 would be number 1 on my list assuming anyone slides as there are 9 elite players in this draft (i dont think g. beckham will be that good).
I hate to be the bearer of ill news
but according to Jon Mayo. Hosmer is probably the property of the Royals at #3
Goldstein says
the White Sox really love Wallace’s bat and might take him at #8. He says the Rangers want a college arm and are interested in Christian Friedrich as well as Hunt. Also mentions that Ryan and the team are looking at TCU’s Cashner. I hadn’t seen that before.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7570
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
Cashner
at #11 sounds like a reach. High heat and a promising slider but his command is erratic and apparently the fastball is straight. Not a great combo for a closer.
And I'm not a fan
of taking relievers that high. Much rather have someone they project as a starter.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
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