C.J. Wilson and missing bats

by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2008 10:30 AM CDT Comment 34 comments

Percentage of strikes that are swinging strikes for various Ranger relievers:

C.J. Wilson -- 12%

Joaquin Benoit -- 21%

Frankie Francisco -- 22%

Franklyn German -- 17%

Eddie Guardado -- 13%

Jamey Wright -- 11%

Josh Rupe -- 14%

The major league average is 14%.

Last season, when C.J. Wilson had 2 strikes on a batter, he allowed opposing batters to hit .134/.258/.150 against him. He allowed 17 hits, and just 2 XBHs (both doubles), in 151 PAs. He got 2 strikes on 53% of the batters he faced, and struck out 41.7% of batters once he got 2 strikes on them.

In 2008, with 2 strikes, hitters are hitting .175/.250/.350 against Wilson, including 3 XBHs (1 double and 2 homers). He's gotten 2 strikes on 56% of the batters he has faced, but he's struck out only 23% of them.

In 2007, Wilson threw a first pitch strike to 55% of the batters he saw. In 2008, he's thrown a first pitch strike to 49% of the batters he's seen.

In a nutshell...the biggest problem seems to be that Wilson isn't putting batters away this season, as reflected in his low swinging strike percentage and his low K rate once he has 2 strikes on hitters.

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i would love to see frankie get a chance

and he seems like one of those players, like valverde, joba, that will get extra pumped in situations like that…

"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush

by Longhorn on May 20, 2008 11:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm still impressed by

that ninth inning Everyday Eddie turned in last week… nine pitches, all strikes.

by Inkara1 on May 20, 2008 12:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure I totally understand this...

Adam, are you saying that hitters aren’t fooled by CJ’s stuff this year? Or, that he’s just been unlucky recently and is still as good as he was earlier this season?

by jwiscarson on May 20, 2008 12:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

I’m just pointing out that he’s not missing many bats right now.

by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2008 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay.

So, as a follow-up, is a high K rate a necessity for a closer?

by jwiscarson on May 20, 2008 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd Say No

A high K rate isn’t necessary in my mind, but closing the book on hitters when you have two strikes on them is necessary.

All things being equal, I’d be more comfortable with a high K rate from CJ given the suspect fielding behind him. I don’t know if my nerves can handle a groundballing closer with this defense.

by Mister Naxal on May 20, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

as a general rule, you’d like for your closer to have the stuff to overpower guys. The best closers (Putz, Papelbon, Rivera) all have K/9 greater than 9 in their careers. To be a consistantly effective late inning reliever, you need to be able to miss bats.

by FirebatM3 on May 20, 2008 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I also see now that I misread part of your post.

I thought the stats were “percentage of pitches that are swinging strikes”, rather than “percentage of strikes”.

by jwiscarson on May 20, 2008 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hitting the ball...

I am amazed that a swing results in contact 86% of the time… I am so hopeless in the cage I usually mis 75% of the swings.

by PatrickWalz on May 20, 2008 12:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hm

How many swinging strikes they garner seems to correlate with how hard they throw. Weaklings Wright and Guardado are on the bottom while Franky and Benoit are at the top.

by Rangerchick on May 20, 2008 12:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Siege needs to be a starter

He might have the mentality to be a closer, but he doesn’t have that dominant out pitch you need to be a closer.

I don’t know why we won’t just put the guy in the rotation, especially considering it’s where he’s publicly stated he’d rather pitch.

The 40 trumps all!!!

by thedirkatron on May 20, 2008 12:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

CJ

Has been a starter. And as a starter he sucked. I’d have to look it up, but I his ERA as a starter was well north of 6.

by awillis111 on May 20, 2008 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wilson

never pitched in AAA, sucked as a starter in AA, people were upset like hell when he was called up, but he’s our starting closer. I would like to see him get people out in AA let alone AAA as a starter than have him start up here in the majors.

"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush

by Longhorn on May 20, 2008 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Word

I have never, ever figured out where this obsession of CJ for starter came from.

by FirebatM3 on May 20, 2008 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair to CJ

the reason he sucked as a starter is he was pulled up straight from AA during a season he was fairly mediocre, albeit with a good month before the callup.

I think had they held him on the farm another year or so, he might have been an acceptable starter.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on May 20, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And he was also...

...still returning from T-J surgery and wasn’t 100% yet.

by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah,

I still think the Rangers screwed the pooch with that callup. Everytime I hear cries on this board for players to be called up early, I think of guys like CJ.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on May 20, 2008 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My bad

I had forgotten about him having T-J.

by awillis111 on May 20, 2008 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't think the rangers would have called him

up if he wasn’t 100%.

"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush

by Longhorn on May 20, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He said he wasn't 100%

He talked about that at Newberg night a couple of years ago. He said when he was brought up and put in the rotation, he was still working his way back from T-J surgery, and was still on a real limited pitch count in the minors. If you look at his minor league innings from that season, you’ll see he was only going 3-4 innings per start.

by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2008 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

did he actually say he wasn't at 100% health wise?

or just the fact that he was working his self back into pitching shape?

"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush

by Longhorn on May 20, 2008 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well?

"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush

by Longhorn on May 21, 2008 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since when?

If you haven’t seen Texas Rangers ballplayers playing at significantly less than 100%, you don’t pay attention too well.

Surely they wouldn’t have played Marlon Byrd if he wasn’t 100%.

Surely they wouldn’t have played Kinsler with a 103 fever.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on May 20, 2008 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair the Club

How much of that can be caused by players “manning up”, and playing when they new they weren’t 100%? Lets face it 19-25 year olds don’t always make the best health choices.

by awillis111 on May 20, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

CJs track record was what it was.

He was winless with like a 5+ ERA I think when he was first called up, and it was higher earlier in the season, but he had started working it down.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on May 20, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was referring to your comment that the Club is responsible for playing players when they are less than 100%. It is a two-way street between players and staff. If players say I can play, management plays them. Not managements fault, if the players are holding back that are hurt or sick.

by awillis111 on May 20, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Club knew

about Kinsler having a 103 fever I’m pretty sure. Going back a couple years, they knew that Carl Everett had a bum knee when he first got here. They had to know Byrd wasn’t healthy early this year, I would think.

When its obvious to me watching on TV that players are playing hurt, I have trouble believing that MLB staffs apparently don’t notice it.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on May 20, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

there is a just a litttttle bit of a difference between players on the team playing through some nagging stuff and bringing up a guy from AA who’s coming off of TJ.

"Popularity is fleeting. … Principles are forever." - George W. Bush

by Longhorn on May 20, 2008 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs