Community Projections - Summary / Comparisons

by benmor78 on May 20, 2008 9:00 AM CDT Comment 13 comments

Okay, so we're about a quarter through the season, and I thought I'd better get the summaries and data up from the community projections. I've also included, for reference, the projections from Bill James, CHONE, and ZIPS. No outliers were removed except two from Jason Jennings' thread.

As I did last year, I've also provided standard deviations for our projections. Standard deviation is a measure of a spread of values. Essentially, in a normal distribution, about 70% of the data points will be within 1 standard deviation from the mean. About 95% of the data points will lie within 2 standard deviations from the mean. So a larger standard deviation indicates less consensus, smaller indicates more.

Tables and such after the jump...

Blalock	Avg	Avg '''σ'''	OBP	OBP '''σ'''	SLG	SLG '''σ'''	PA	PA '''σ'''
Community	.283	11	.347	13	.502	36	592	74
Bill James	.276		.342		.469
CHONE	.275		.343		.463
ZIPS	.276		.336		.446
to date	.299		.365		.460

Botts	Avg	Avg '''σ'''	OBP	OBP '''σ'''	SLG	SLG '''σ'''	PA	PA '''σ'''
Community	.263	28	.344	41	.431	65	295	107
Bill James	.276		.369		.466
CHONE	.260		.350		.445
ZIPS	.258		.359		.447
to date	.158		.304		.395

Byrd	Avg	Avg '''σ'''	OBP	OBP '''σ'''	SLG	SLG '''σ'''	PA	PA '''σ'''
Community	.267	14	.325	16	.402	25	385	87
Bill James	.277		.337		.420
CHONE	.275		.337		.428
ZIPS	.288		.344		.443
to date	.184		.279		.368

Bradley	Avg	Avg '''σ'''	OBP	OBP '''σ'''	SLG	SLG '''σ'''	PA	PA '''σ'''
Community	.287	11	.375	16	.485	28	430	88
Bill James	.302		.391		.508
CHONE	.284		.373		.481
ZIPS	.261		.348		.407
to date	.321		.429		.579

Cat	Avg	Avg '''σ'''	OBP	OBP '''σ'''	SLG	SLG '''σ'''	PA	PA '''σ'''
Community	.285	12	.356	15	.432	24	381	58
Bill James	.284		.357		.435
CHONE	.277		.353		.428
ZIPS	.274		.355		.413
to date	.275		.362		.431

Hamilton	Avg	Avg '''σ'''	OBP	OBP '''σ'''	SLG	SLG '''σ'''	PA	PA '''σ'''
Community	.301	11	.381	17	.566	31	504	56
Bill James	.307		.383		.605
CHONE	.280		.354		.506
ZIPS	.281		.349		.491
to date	.319		.369		.604

Kinsler	Avg	Avg '''σ'''	OBP	OBP '''σ'''	SLG	SLG '''σ'''	PA	PA '''σ'''
Community	.283	16	.364	11	.467	16	618	44
Bill James	.273		.350		.458
CHONE	.274		.355		.456
ZIPS	.269		.345		.440
to date	.298		.360		.438

Laird	Avg	Avg '''σ'''	OBP	OBP '''σ'''	SLG	SLG '''σ'''	PA	PA '''σ'''
Community	.253	22	.311	23	.392	38	344	74
Bill James	.252		.308		.400
CHONE	.245		.303		.395
ZIPS	.249		.305		.391
to date	.277		.338		.395

Young	Avg	Avg '''σ'''	OBP	OBP '''σ'''	SLG	SLG '''σ'''	PA	PA '''σ'''
Community	.312	12	.363	15	.443	24	701	29
Bill James	.305		.354		.435
CHONE	.305		.358		.443
ZIPS	.303		.352		.427
to date	.282		.345		.409

Jennings	Wins	Wins '''σ'''	Inng's	Inng's '''σ'''	K's	K's '''σ'''	ERA	ERA '''σ'''
Community	11	2	169	25	111	19	4.76	0.33
Bill James	7		150		97		5.04
CHONE			132		86		4.64
ZIPS	7		140		99		4.56
to date	0		27.1		12		8.56

McCarthy	Wins	Wins '''σ'''	Inng's	Inng's '''σ'''	K's	K's '''σ'''	ERA	ERA '''σ'''
Community	8	3	113	40	76	31	4.49	1.11
Bill James	10		176		142		4.30
CHONE			108		75		4.75
ZIPS	8		127		77		4.96
to date	0		0		0		0

Millwood	Wins	Wins '''σ'''	Inng's	Inng's '''σ'''	K's	K's '''σ'''	ERA	ERA '''σ'''
Community	15	2	197	15	148	19	4.36	.37
Bill James	11		193		145		4.01
CHONE			184		128		4.99
ZIPS	12		189		135		4.52
to date	2		48		29		4.88

Padilla	Wins	Wins '''σ'''	Inng's	Inng's '''σ'''	K's	K's '''σ'''	ERA	ERA '''σ'''
Community	13	3	181	19	139	30	4.58	0.42
Bill James	6		120		82		4.5
CHONE			149		96		5.3
ZIPS	10		172		112		4.92
to date	6		62.2		41		3.16

2 recs | Comment 13 comments

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Comments

James was a little off on Padilla

Can’t same I blame him, if I recall my prediction for him was rather conservative.

Picking a random blog comment and wielding it as a club to bash "blogs" is like picking a random romance novel off an airport bookstore shelf and saying, "This book sucks. Fuck you, Tolstoy -- your medium is worthless!" - Ken Tremendous

by TheBZA on May 20, 2008 9:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If anyone...

wants to go back and look at theirs or anyone else’s projections, here’s the link to all the threads…

http://www.lonestarball.com/2008/3/31/388161/community-projections-catc

"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."

by benmor78 on May 20, 2008 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't know yet

if James was off on Padilla.

It’s still conceivable he is right.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on May 20, 2008 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

But outside of ERA, odds are against it.

by TheBZA on May 20, 2008 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really good job on all of this Ben

Definitely got the hard work out of the way, averaging out the community projections, should be easy to update from here on out.

Look forward to reading more on this stuff.

"that suzuki guy should go back to making cars" - My girlfriend after C.J.'s close in game 2

by tdi1985 on May 20, 2008 9:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm looking forward to

the end-of-season wrap-up and more references to the Van Der Slooting of the offense.

by Inkara1 on May 20, 2008 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

An offense with...

Josh Hamilton in it cannot be Van Der Slooted.

"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."

by benmor78 on May 20, 2008 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, Ben

Been looking forward to projections vs. actual.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on May 20, 2008 9:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Always good

At the end of the season it would also be fun to see “Closest to the Pin” for each player and “Way off Base Guesses” for the player. You know, list the five guesses by the five posters who hit the mark and missed the mark.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on May 20, 2008 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs