Would the Padres trade us...
by lonestarJon
on May 22, 2008 5:07 AM CDT
Chase Headly for Jarrod Saltalamacchia?
Some comments over in the gameday thread got me thinking about this one. The Padres are weak at catcher, and both Michael Barrett and Josh Bard on the DL right now (although Barrett is apparently getting close to returning, but hey, he's not that good anyway) so they should be in the market for a stud catcher. We just decided to move Hank Blalock of third, and we have pretty much nobody in the system or on this team that can give us above-average production at third, so I think Headley could fill a big hole here.
Headly is a former 3rd base prospect that the Padres are trying to convert to LF this year because they have Kevin Kouzmanoff cemented at third. Baseball America rated him at #32 on their top 100 this year, and from the scouting reports I've read, he's a switch hitter with a heavy bat, and was very capable defensively at third base before the Padres decided to put him in LF.
Since I'm not too great at estimating trade value and all that stuff, here's my question: would you guys do a trade involving those two? Would we want more than just Headley from SD, considering Salty's value as an offensive catcher?
I know I've said in the past I don't want to trade either Salty or Teagarden till we've seen a little more from them, but this idea seems good enough to be an exception to that rule to me, if the Padres would go for it...
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I think the Padres might be
...the ideal landing spot for Gerald Laird.
Headley and Salty probably have similar values, so that trade idea seems plausible to me. The thing is, in the next few years, we aren’t going to do anything until we get more certainty out of the starting rotation. The only way that I could see us acquiring the type of legit, near-ready starter prospect that we really need is going to be by trading Salty for him.
If we’re going to trade Salty, I’d much rather get an arm back and try to somehow fill 3b, rather than trade for a 3b, and fill the rotation with another grab bag of guys like Mendoza, Jennings, etc.
Pedro: "I wasn't cockfighting, I just have a wide stance."
by tricer on May 22, 2008 5:54 AM CDT 0 recs
Salty
I think you have to hold on to Salty, unless someone blows you away. If the plan down the road is to have Andrus at SS, MY at 3B, and a platoon of Murphy/Boggs in LF, I think that you are going to have to get a lot of offense out of the catching position. They have the guy to do that.
Plus, if you acquire Headley, that means that MY stays at SS long term and Andrus is blocked. As a philosophy, I don’t have a problem with that, but I don’t think that fits into their plan.
by badradiorules on May 22, 2008 8:09 AM CDT 0 recs
Well, I don't really care what happens to MY
If we really let his ass block Andrus because we accquired someone like Headley to play third, we’re in trouble. Just trade him, move him to LF, or put him on a plane to tumbukuto or something.
The reason why I think this would be a good trade is because you’e got two guys who are essentially similar players, and are top organizational prospects. It’s just that we coulf probably use Headley more than Salty in the long run, based on the logjam we have at catcher, and the Padres could probably use Salty more than Headley in the long run, because they already have a 3B.
I know it would be nice to get some top-flight pitching in return for Salty, but we’ve got a lot of good young pitchers in the system right now – I think it’s just as important to restock other positions of weakness in the farm system, and right now, third base is pretty bare. And I think Headley is the type of prospect who could equal or surpass the highest expectations of Salty’s production.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 4:50 PM CDT
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lol i love how people fall in love with prospects
a guy that cant even hit minor league pitching yet is more important than a guy that is top 5 in hits every year.
by kumizi on
May 22, 2008 5:23 PM CDT
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You're talking about Elvis Andrus?
Lets see, a 19 year old who is already said to possess the ability to play plus defense in the majors, and is at least performing adequately with the bat as the youngest player in the Texas league… and is also said to posess all the “intangibles” you look for in a player…
Yeah, I think he’s gonna be more important than a guy in his 30’s who’s declining both offensively and defensively, and will be nothing but an overpaid singles hitter by the time we’re contending in 2-3 years.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 5:46 PM CDT
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You mean
the guy who makes an error every 3 games, and hasnt cracked a 750 OPS in the pros yet? That Elvis Andrus? He might be a bigtime player, he might be Benji Gil. The jury is still out.
You want us to shut down getting other prospects to guarantee him a slot?
"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck
by DJCahill on
May 22, 2008 10:12 PM CDT
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How do you propose to trade Young?
He’s got a player friendly contract and no-trade protection. Who’s going to want him?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
by benmor78 on
May 22, 2008 7:38 PM CDT
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Who knows
But I’m sure we could find somebody to buy into the “200 hits a year = greatness” thing. He is technically the best offensively performing SS in the AL right now after all.
We’d have to eat a good chunk of his contract, but as I’ve said many times before, if we could get a decent prospect or two, I think that’s a better deal than paying him the entire contract for what is likely to be mediocre performance in the years to come.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 7:47 PM CDT
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Oh, and since he doesn't want to move to 3B
We just tell him “we either move you or trade you, your choice” and I’m pretty sure he’d waive that no-trade in a hurry.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 7:48 PM CDT
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So...
You want to trade one of our best young players to get another good young player from another team, so that you can force a showdown with Michael Young in the hopes that he’ll get mad and waive his no-trade clause so you can trade him for peanuts (while paying a good chunk of his contract in the process)?
I don’t see that that makes a lot of sense.
by Adam J. Morris on
May 22, 2008 9:14 PM CDT
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No
I’m just trying to think of a way to improve this team at third base. I look at what we’ve got over there, and it’s almost literally a vacume – unless you’re high on Whittleman, which I am not.
I don’t really care about MY, I’m just thinking about our long-term situation at 3B.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 9:17 PM CDT
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Long term at third base...
...your answer is probably Young.
I don’t see that Headley represents much of an upgrade at third base over Young, from 2009-2013. Particularly if the cost is Saltalamacchia.
by Adam J. Morris on
May 22, 2008 9:20 PM CDT
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So Chase Headley
Who hits for more power, and is younger, and is likely a better defender oever there from what I’ve read, isn’t going to be that much of an upgrade over an aging Michael Young at 3B from 2009-13? Really? Aren’t you the one who has argued in the past that MY doesn’t have the bat to provide enough production at 3B?
From what I can see, Salty and Headley are basically similar players, with similar values. If Salty really does have that much more value than Headley, then how about Teagarden for Headley?
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 9:30 PM CDT
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If you consider...
...Salty and Headley similar players with similar values, you are either significantly overrating Headley, or significantly underrating Salty.
Teagarden for Headley? Again, I don’t see why you’d do that, instead of just putting Young at third base and doing something else with Teagarden.
I don’t see Young at 3B as the huge problem you appear to see it as.
by Adam J. Morris on
May 22, 2008 9:39 PM CDT
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I'd be interested to get z's take
Here’s the thing…from what I understand, Headley is someone who is a pretty “safe” prospect, a guy who projects to be a solid average/above-average third baseman, but who isn’t going to be a star or anything. A Mike Lowell type, maybe, with a little less defense.
Salty has higher star potential, particularly if he stays behind the plate.
Now, if you could get a Longoria or a Wright or someone like that to play third base, then sure, you go get them and figure out what to do with Young later.
But targeting someone like Headley, who profiles as a solid but not great player, to play the position that Young pretty much is going to have to play for the next half-decade just doesn’t make sense ot me.
by Adam J. Morris on
May 22, 2008 9:51 PM CDT
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Well, I'm just going by what I've read about Headley
Headley was #32 on BA’s top 100 this year, and is listed as thr Padres top prospect. His minor league line, .300/.398/.491 looks pretty good to me, and his career 889 OPS is just 10 points lower than the career OPS of the Dodgers uber-3B prospect Andy Laroche.
Headley caught my eye last year when he put up a 1.017 OPS on his way to being Texas League MVP in AA, so maybe I am overrating him a bit – but that’s kinda why I posted this to get a sense of his value, and what he’d be worth giving up for.
As for MY, here’s a guy who only slugged .418 last year, and is only slugging .414 again this year – I just don’t think a declining 31 year old with a .446 career SLG% is gonna make that good a third baseman, myself.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 10:02 PM CDT
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I pretty much agree
with what you’re saying across the board. I think that everyone likes Headley pretty well, but Saltalamacchia is a full year younger than him. I don’t see how BA ranking Headley 32 supports the argument, considering that they ranked Saltalamacchia 36 and 18. While Headley is doing well in the PCL at age 24, I think you have to wonder just a little bit about his inability to control the plate at his age, with his 17/45 BB/SO ratio.
At this point, I think that we’re down to whether Saltalamacchia pans out. If he does, like Adam said he’s most likely a superior player.
But mostly, I can’t make any sense of the notion of dealing from catcher to pick up a 3B who might or might not be better than Young. It just doesn’t make sense unless you can do something else with Young.
by zywica on
May 22, 2008 11:21 PM CDT
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Catchers
The Padres are a logical landing place for Laird, but not until after the season, when Bard and Barrett have expiring contracts. As for a team this year, I still think the Brewers will want to upgrade from Kendall at some point, and the Marlins could be interested if they stay in contention. The Red Sox still need a catcher of the future, but they don’t have a player in their system on par with Salty now that Ellsbury is in the big leagues. Still, an offer of Masterson and maybe Bard could catch my ear. I am getting anxious, wanting to leverage this logjam and turn it into a solid young OF or pitcher, but it may take some time before something materializes.
by clark on May 22, 2008 9:29 AM CDT 0 recs
Padres
I think they are so screwed up right now as an organization that I cannot see them making a prospect for prospect deal. They are already talking about selling off the team this July – they’ll try to get a young catcher and some outfield talent for some of their veterans (Giles, Maddux, maybe even Greene).
I was hoping the Padres would have been contenders this year, when maybe they’d make an aggressive trade for Laird considering that their catchers couldn’t throw out Julio Franco’s grandmother. But I don’t see us trading any of our younger guys unless a team is willing to overpay because they are contending.
by JBImaknee on May 22, 2008 12:18 PM CDT 0 recs
Umm
The Padres are a last place team right now and have alot of holes on their team so why would they trade their best prospect?
by coolaid on May 22, 2008 4:10 PM CDT 0 recs
To fill a need behind the plate
With one of our best prospects.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 4:38 PM CDT
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They have a need in the OF
much more so that at catcher. All their OF suck right now.
by coolaid on
May 22, 2008 8:19 PM CDT
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True
From what I gather, they think Nick Hundley is going to be their future catcher, but he doesn’t seem to be much of a hitter yet in the minors… I guess they also have a couple other guys that project as Gerald Laird/backup types as well, so they think catcher is actually one of their stronger points in the minors, but it doesn’t really seem that way to me. Of course, I’m a bit spoiled, considering the caliber of our catching prospects.
But yeah, OF and SS seem to be their two biggest needs.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 8:25 PM CDT
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Gerald Laird...
he’s not playing like a backup. He’s having a good season.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
by benmor78 on
May 23, 2008 1:02 AM CDT
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In a platoon role again, if you'll note
He was hitting like crap before Salty came up. As I recall, it was also funny how his hitting dropped of in spring training once he was named starting catcher.
It’s not because he’s facing only lefties this time though, but it’s certainly worth noting. It probably has something to do with the competition that results from splitting time – he knows he has to go out there and perform at his best, or his playing time will get scaled back for Salty. I’m not saying that he’s lazy, but perhaps unconciously, he’s forced to keep himself sharper this way. Different guys respond better to different situations, and based on the results from 2006 and this year, I think it’s a fair assessment that perhaps Laird performs better in a platoon role. And on the other end of the spectrum, Salty sucks in a platoon role, quite obviously.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 23, 2008 4:15 AM CDT
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Wrong, oh subjective one.
Laird’s OPS+ against lefties: 116
against righties: 111
Stop focusing on your agenda and backtracking arguments and give credit where it’s due. Laird is having a good season at the plate, especially for a catcher.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
by t ball on
May 23, 2008 7:37 AM CDT
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That's why he
drives me insane…”I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, but if I repost the same shit 1,000 times, perchance someone will believe me.”
...it's the weekend, so why the hell not?
by Rodney on
May 23, 2008 9:43 AM CDT
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To be fair
I don’t think LSJ is smart enough to have an agenda.
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on
May 23, 2008 12:17 PM CDT
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Ouchie!
heh
...it's the weekend, so why the hell not?
by Rodney on
May 23, 2008 12:22 PM CDT
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You know what
You guys are the dumbasses. I said nothing about lefty/righty spilts.
READ MY COMMENT:
It’s not because he’s facing only lefties this time though, but it’s certainly worth noting.
I think Laird performs better as a platoon player. I don’t know why, but based on his 2006 performance, and now his performance in a platoon this year, that seems to be the case. That’s all I’m saying.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
"I LOVE to fart" - Bert Blyleven
by lonestarJon on
May 23, 2008 6:06 PM CDT
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We get it.
We are dumbasses.
You are Baseball Jesus.
You win. Enjoy.
by coolaid on
May 23, 2008 8:23 PM CDT
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+1
"When I am pissed off, I get angry." - Miles 5/06/08
by Chase Irwin on
May 23, 2008 8:29 PM CDT
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+1
I just wish he would stop using his superior analytical mind to ownership me all the time!
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on
May 23, 2008 10:18 PM CDT
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Laird was hardly
sucking before Salty came up. I agree he’s probably best if limited to 3-4 days a week, but that describes most catchers. Look, no one here thinks Laird is going to have a better career than Salty, you don’t need to assault Laird at every opportunity. He is having a good year, and you should be thankful that he’s building his value.
Salty does not need you to defend him.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
by t ball on
May 23, 2008 8:30 PM CDT
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Laird does look better
as a part time player.
Buck was a genius.
Sharky said it, I believe it, that settles it
by DJCahill on
May 23, 2008 8:31 PM CDT
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-1...
For putting “Buck” and “genius” in the same sentence.
Come on Cahill, you’re better than that.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on
May 23, 2008 8:34 PM CDT
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If lonestar Jon
told me the earth was round I’d argue with him just to see if his head exploded.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
by t ball on
May 23, 2008 8:38 PM CDT
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The earth is round
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
"I LOVE to fart" - Bert Blyleven
by lonestarJon on
May 23, 2008 10:47 PM CDT
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-1
"When I am pissed off, I get angry." - Miles 5/06/08
by Chase Irwin on
May 23, 2008 11:43 PM CDT
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I think the earth works
best when it’s platooned with the moon.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
by t ball on
May 24, 2008 7:26 AM CDT
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Agree.
Laird was heating up before Salty ever got called up this year.
by coolaid on
May 23, 2008 8:34 PM CDT
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What...
was his OPS before Salty was called up?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
by benmor78 on
May 23, 2008 8:01 AM CDT
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His OPS
is closing in on the 2005 Barajas! Keep going Gerry, you might catch him!
"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck
by DJCahill on
May 23, 2008 7:38 AM CDT
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Of course...
...he’s got a 19 point edge in EQA against Barajas in 2005—Barajas’s career year…
by Adam J. Morris on
May 23, 2008 10:25 AM CDT
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We may be buying pieces from them later on
if we are in a playoff contender race. Who would you buy?
by SanDiegoKev on May 22, 2008 4:52 PM CDT 0 recs
Maddux
maybe Heath Bell, but he’ll be expensive. That is about it. Avoid Brian Giles like the plague.
by JBImaknee on
May 22, 2008 4:54 PM CDT
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I think playing at PETCO
makes Giles look worst then he is.
by SanDiegoKev on
May 22, 2008 4:54 PM CDT
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whatever
he’s going to get traded this year. Probably to Atlanta or the Cubs, just so he can retire with a playoff team, but he won’t last the season in SD
by JBImaknee on
May 22, 2008 5:04 PM CDT
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I agree...
I’m sure those are the only 2 places he’d go.
by cmkelly29 on
May 22, 2008 5:11 PM CDT
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no way they trade Hoffman.
The Padres fans are already unhappy – that would be the straw that breaks them
by JBImaknee on
May 22, 2008 5:05 PM CDT
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The Hoff...
They would certainly trade him. He’s currently playing out his club option. I’m pretty sure he’ll be a FA this winter.
by cmkelly29 on
May 22, 2008 5:09 PM CDT
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Ooh
I’d be down with that.
Khalil is a good defender (at least I think he is… anyone know for sure? I’m lucky to see two Pads games a year) and Petco really deflates his numbers. It’s insane.
Career Line: .252/.308/.434/.742
Career Home: .229/.291/.366/.657 with 28 homers
Career Road: .274/.325/.499/.824 with 49 homers
Those road numbers would be pretty freaking good for a good defense SS… though he has been hitting very piss poorly everywhere so far this season. I something wrong with him, maybe?
Take him out of the hitters graveyard that is Petco park, and inject him into a decent hitters park like the BPiA and he’d be a darn good middle infielder.
If they asked for a package of Andrus and Teagarden, would y’all be interested?
He’s signed for this year at 4.5mm and next year at 6.5mm and then can go FA, if you’re wondering about his long term status.
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on
May 22, 2008 6:45 PM CDT
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That sounds like a good trade to me
I’ve alway liked Khalil. I don’t see too many Padres games either, but every time I have seen him, Greene has looked pretty smooth out there at short. He’s also got a pretty good arm for a SS.
The only thing about Khalil is he strikes out quite a bit, and doesn’t put up a very high OBP, but the benifit his power numbers would get from playing in The Ballpark in Arlington should make up for that.
by BlackHawk125 on
May 22, 2008 7:14 PM CDT
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In the words of Tony Gwynn
Khalil Greene is a tinkerer. He’s always messing with his swing when he’s going well and when he’s going badly. He never has consistant swing mechanics.
These runs of extreme hotness and extreme coldness will always be a part of his game until he stops tinkering.
by FirebatM3 on
May 22, 2008 8:12 PM CDT
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i hate khalil greene.
id much rather just stick with blalock/young than switch to young/greene even if greene were free, let alone for andrus/teagarden.
Gerald Laird is my hero.
by DSheppard on
May 22, 2008 8:21 PM CDT
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+1
Greene isn’t really anything special, IMO. He’s got a .308 career OBP, which is horrible. Seriously. That’s Gerald Laird territory.
He may have some decent pop, but as little as he gets on base, he seems like the kind of guy who will suffer a huge dropoff once he begins to decline.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 8:30 PM CDT
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I don't get it.
If you want a SS that plays good defense but can’t hit to save his life, why not just bring up Elvis and save yourself a player or two?
by LiamP on
May 22, 2008 9:21 PM CDT
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I think the point is
that PETCO is severely retarding his offensive production.
But by how much, is the question? That park is pretty damn ridiculous in terms of squelching hitters’ numbers.
Cause if he’s really the .824 OPS hitter his road splits indicate he might be, then that’s a pretty valuable player, no?
And the caveat of course being that I’d only consider dealing for a veteran like that if we were in contention later on the summer, which is still a pretty freaking big long shot at this point, recent hot streak or no recent hot streak.
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on
May 22, 2008 10:13 PM CDT
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PETCO or no PETCO
That .308 career OBP is pretty bad. PETCO park will diminish his SLG% and such, but it shouldn’t be impeding his abilty to walk and get on base that much – which really isn’t very good.
A Lonestar in California - 2.0
David Murphy rocks, so Ellsbury can just go get himself a taco or something.
by lonestarJon on
May 22, 2008 10:19 PM CDT
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If you'll look at the stats
it does seem to be killing his BA and power and not really affecting his walk rate. His BB rate is slightly higher at home, actually.
Look at the home/road splits I posted above. Read them, if you can. Try doing it aloud and sounding out each word, if that helps.
You back?
Okay. His OBP is right at about 50 points higher than his BA, which indicates that (at least on the surface) his walk rate isn’t good, but it’s not all that bad. It’s actually eerily similar to that of one Michael Young, just a little better. Obviously he doesn’t hit for the average Franchise Face does, but he’s got considerably more sock… and defensively, unless he’s WAY worse than I’ve been lead to believe, there’s no comparison between the two.
Once again: If you look at the road splits, LSJ, and assume he’d hit more in line with those non-PETCO numbers, they’re actually pretty decent.
So, my question to you: Are you refuting my assertion that he’d hit like that all the time if he didn’t have to play half the time in PETCO, or are you refuting my assertion that those road numbers are all that good in the first place?
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on
May 22, 2008 10:34 PM CDT
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