Putting minor league error totals into context

by Adam J. Morris on May 23, 2008 10:00 AM CDT Comment 21 comments

There's been some discussion about Elvis Andrus's high error totals this season, and whether that is indicative of Andrus's defensive abilities being overrated, or just a product of playing shortstop in the minors.

So I went and looked up the minor league data on some generally well-regarded defensive shortstops, and counted up how many errors they had in their minor league careers.

(And I offer this with the caveat that data wasn't available for every season on some players, so the number of minor league games reflects the number of minor league games data was available for their performance at shortstop, not the total number of minor league games they played).

Troy Tulowitzki -- 30 errors in 121 minor league games, 1 error every 4.0 games.

Khalil Greene -- 27 errors in 173 minor league games, 1 error every 6.4 games.

Edgar Renteria -- 40 errors in 169 minor league games, 1 error every 4.2 games.

Adam Everett -- 75 errors in 443 minor league games, 1 error every 5.9 games.

Erick Aybar -- 119 errors in 475 minor league games, 1 error every 4.0 games.

Cristian Guzman -- 32 errors in 140 minor league games, 1 error every 4.4 games.

Tony Pena -- 103 errors in 462 minor league games, 1 error every 4.5 games.

Elvis Andrus has 78 errors in 273 minor league games, 1 error every 3.5 games. That's a high total...however, his minor league career fielding percentage, .943, isn't really out of line with the .940-.950 range that most of the guys listed above hovered around. And it is worth noting that fielding percentages appear to get better as you go higher up in the minors, particularly at the AAA level, which I think reflects field quality.

Now...does this mean Andrus is a great fielder? Does it mean the error totals this season aren't a concern? Absolutely not...he's making more errors than you want to see so far this season.

But I also think, when you compare his performance with some of the guys listed above, I don't think it sends up such red flags that we should be dismissing his ability to be a plus defensive shortstop in the majors.

0 recs | Comment 21 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I caught some of the discussion on the fanpost

but what do we know about his range?

"that suzuki guy should go back to making cars" - My girlfriend after C.J.'s close in game 2

by tdi1985 on May 23, 2008 10:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

it's outstanding

almost as much range as Arias, but not quite

by bronco28 on May 23, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

having said that

about half of the errors I’ve seen him make (something like 3 of 6 or 4 of 8 or somesuch) have been on balls that were pretty much right at him; he tends not to attack the ball; he waits for it and then he either flubs it trying to make a quick transfer or makes a bad throw because he’s rushing it

Arias’s errors were usually him trying to make a play no one else could make, or even consider trying to make

I’ve heard that he’s fighting through a little bit of a physical problem (no solid info on that, just a rumor), so maybe that explains it to some degree. But from what I’ve seen, a healthy Arias is a better defensive SS than the Andrus I’ve seen this year.

by bronco28 on May 23, 2008 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He had a minor hip problem

that was limiting his flexibility. This was about the time where many folks were noticing that he wasn’t running out ground balls.

His game has been much more aggressive both on the bases and in the field over the past couple of weeks, so I’m betting that the hip problem is behind him.

by NoNameOnCard on May 23, 2008 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exceptional range

Dalton

by jparks77 on May 23, 2008 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't you find any good defensive SS

with as frequent or more frequent error rates than Andrus? Some of the guys you listed would have almost twice as many games per error as Andrus.

"Before I leave, I once again condemn the despicable buffoonery of D.J. Cahill." - Huck

by DJCahill on May 23, 2008 10:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I just pulled out...

...7 or 8 guys for whom I could find minor league numbers, who are considered good defensive shortstops…

I guess, if I went and looked, I could find good defensive shortstops with error rates similar to Andrus (and z mentioned ARod and Jeter’s minor league numbers already), but I was just trying to get some comparisons, not seek out the most error-prone guys I could find.

by Adam J. Morris on May 23, 2008 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Adam

I was checking some stats on my own mainly to do an age comparison and I think some of your stats are innaccurate. For example Edgar Renteria had 452 career minor league games all as SS. He made 121 errors for an average of 1 every 3.72 games. Are your numbers only during a certain level or up to a certain level or am I just missing something?

by bigsteve on May 23, 2008 10:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I pulled the data off of B-R

They only had fielding stats for 1995 and 1996.

by Adam J. Morris on May 23, 2008 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

baseball cube

Thats where I went. I’ll throw up the complete stats if you’d like.

by bigsteve on May 23, 2008 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

If you want to make it a diary, I’ll move it to the FP.

by Adam J. Morris on May 23, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Age

Really the only two guys from that list that we should be comparing Elvis to are renteria and Guzman. The other guys were much older going through the respective minor league levels and althought that doesn’t mean for certain they are better it does kinda give credence to the argument that Elvis will only get better as he matures. Renteria had an error once every 3.72 games in his minor league career. And Guzman had one every 3.37 career minor league games.

by bigsteve on May 23, 2008 10:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I know

in the RR game that was televised last week he made a great play to his left that MY wouldn’t have even come close to making. So I think it’s just a consistency/repetition thing for him. Which makes sense because he’s 19.

www.mavsmoneyball.com

by Wes Cox on May 23, 2008 11:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

To add to Adams post here

Looking at the stats on thebaseballcube.com here are the comprehensive stats for the guys Adam mentioned

Troy Tulowitzki: 30 errors in 121 games played. 1 every 4 games. College draftee in minors at ages 20 and 21.
Khalil Greene: 30 errors in 179 games played. 1 every 6 games. College draftee in minors at ages 22 and 23.
Edgar Renteria: 121 errors in 452 games played. 1 every 3.73 games. Very comparable in age. AA at 19 years old
Adam Everett: 84 errors in 464 games played. 1 every 5.5 games. Minor leagues age 21-26
Erick Aybar: 112 errors in 457 games played. 1 every 4 games. Can’t find stats on his 81 games at AAA so they are ommitted. Comparable age to start the minors but he didn’t make it to AA until 21 years old
Cristian Guzman: 91 errors in 307 games played. 1 every 3.37 games. AA at 20 years old and jumped straight to the majors.
Tony Pena: 150 errors in 701 games played. 1 every 4.67 games. Started minor leagues as 19 year old but didn’t make AA until 23 years old.

Taking all this in I think you have to factor in Elvis’ age and say he looks like he will be a very very good defender. A couple of these guys made the jump from AA to the majors even without having a great slugging % or even a great batting average.

Personally I would like to see him in AA all year and perhaps get promoted to OKC late but its not that big a deal. Then start out next year in OKC with all the buzz and hype surrounding a top prospect and at the worst get a September callup next year. Even then he will only be 20 about to turn 21 years old. He will still have alot of growing to do both physically and mentally but the future is very very bright for this kid

by bigsteve on May 23, 2008 11:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I haven't dug through the fanpost about this

but does anyone know what 1b quality does to these numbers? A stellar defensive first baseman (Pujols, Teixeira, Gonzalez) saves his infielders a lot of errors. A poor first baseman can result in more errors for the infielders one sub-optimal throws.

Seems that in the minor leagues you are more likely to have a 1b who can’t field… I don’t know how good Chris Davis is at digging out throws, etc, but he is new to the position

by JBImaknee on May 23, 2008 11:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

New to the position

Davis has been playing 1B off and on since JUCO. He should be familiar with the position by now.

Dalton

by jparks77 on May 23, 2008 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Davis is underrated as a 1B

Davis is a huge target at 1B and rarely fails to dig a ball out of the dirt. There’s no question in my mind that he’s a far better 1B than 3B.

by NoNameOnCard on May 23, 2008 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Davis

I would hope he was a better first baseman, because while he worked hard and improved at third base as last year went on, he wasn’t very good defensively.

by uthornfan on May 23, 2008 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Now, I don’t know that he’s really good as of yet or anything, but I have played 1B for most of my life and am pretty sensitive when I watch a game to watching them. I have been at least a little pleasantly surprised by Davis’ ability to deal with some inbetween hops on throws over. There are about five inches more to throw at over there, compared with Shelton, which would be nice to have a normal sized target again.

by Brett Perryman on May 23, 2008 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs