The next 19
by Adam J. Morris on May 26, 2008 10:30 AM CDT
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PrintThe Rangers next 19 games include:
6 against Tampa
4 against Cleveland
3 against Oakland
3 against the Mets
3 against Kansas City
10 at home, 9 on the road (and for the season, for what it is worth, the Rangers have played 6 more road games than home games).
This will be, I think, a telling stretch. Tampa is a good team, Oakland has a good record but isn't, I think, real good, the Mets and Indians are good teams that aren't playing well, and the Royals are the Royals.
If the Rangers really want to get on the map as far as the playoff hunt goes, something like 11-8 or 12-7 over this stretch would do it. And if Kevin Millwood comes back healthy and effective on Friday, that's doable.
I remain underwhelmed by the A.L. West right now. I don't think the A's are any better than a .500 team, and Seattle is sunk. That leaves the Angels, whom I seem to perpetually underrate, but who I also don't see as a real scary team.
I want the Rangers to continue to commit to youth and the long-term plan. But in doing so, I think that it is certainly possible for Texas to back into a playoff race.
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You should
Eliminate some of the semi-equivocation. It really clutters up the writing.
On the merits, I’d be happy to stay at 4 games back after that stretch, which would keep us in the playoff race. Only thing is, as you mentioned, I want them to stay committed and not get Carlos Lee’ed again as we get closer to the deadline (unless of course it’s actually a Lee-like deal which didn’t really involve any significant prospects).
re:
you’re not okay with them getting ‘carlos lee’ed’ but then you are okay with them getting ‘carlos lee’ed’??
I think he means that
the Carlos Lee deal was an exception to the rule, in that the Rangers didn’t end up giving up much value (Cordero, Nix, Mench). However, teams usually do have to give up quality players or prospects to make a win-now trade (see the Gagne, Lofton, or Tex deal). And I think Brett is stating that he wouldn’t really want to make such a move if the Rangers would have to give up one or two really good prospects.
As for my personal opinion, I don’t think we have the Starting Pitching to win a world series or to even be a World Series contender. But then again, if Jeff Weaver can lead a rotation to a World Series win, why can’t anyone currently in our rotation?
Uh...
you do know the Carlos Lee deal didn’t really involve anyone I’d call a significant prospect.
Carlos Lee, Nelson Cruz for Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench, Francisco Cordero, Julian Cordero.
Plus consider that we got 2 first round picks back in return when Lee left in the offseason.
Stars in a Texas Night Sky, a Dallas Stars blog from a fan's perspective.
well, our draft went quite well
cant guarantee that would happen this year with those picks.
anyway, its not like the trade hurt us anyway. If we dont trade away cordero we dont sign gagne. If we dont sign gagne we dont have the murph, gabbard and beltre.
Gerald Laird is my hero.
But 2 picks sooner than later is usually better...
Gives you an extra year of development meaning the players are a year closer to the bigs than if we had the picks this year. Just like $10 today is better than $10 a year from now.
Stars in a Texas Night Sky, a Dallas Stars blog from a fan's perspective.
yeah
but there was no guarantee he would have been a type A had he stayed in Texas. He obviously built some kind of mental block about pitching in Texas and couldn’t close anymore.
really?
That is determined by the previous 2 years. I don’t think he would have been one. He stunk here before he was traded and I think its safe to say he would have stunk had he stayed here. There is a pretty good possibility we wouldn’t have offered him arbitration because of his play thus not getting compensation. Theres no denying he had a dramatic turnaround once he went to Milwaukee but to say he would have been a type A easily is pretty far out there
Two things
Like Large Steve noted, he had lost his closers job at the time he was dealt, and was taking big huge steamy dumps on the mound whenever he got out there in a non-save situation, so there is a decent chance that had he stayed here would’ve been a type B. His raw stuff is good enough that he prolly would’ve rebounded and stayed a type A, but I don’t think it’s “crazy like a woman” to say there was a 20% chance he’d have continued to falter and fallen down a notch.
Second, the team that ended up signing CoCo was Cincy, who’s first rounder was protected, so even if we’d kept him and he’d had the type of year for us last year that he had for the Brewers, we’d have gotten a supp 1st and a 2nd instead of a 1st and a supp 1st like we did for Lee. I know that’s completely luck of the draw and it could’ve just as easily happened the other way around, but it worked out nicely for us.
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on May 26, 2008 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Not necessarily...
Depends on whether the team that picked him up had a protected draft choice or signed a higher rated free agent. The Rangers could have received a sandwich first and a second round.
Maybe I'm just not sure what you mean by getting Carlos Lee'd
So you don’t want us to get Carlos Lee’d, but you want us to make deals like it without giving up significant prospect, but not giving up sig prospects is what got us Carlos Lee, thus you’d actually want us to get Carlos Lee’d then I would think.
Stars in a Texas Night Sky, a Dallas Stars blog from a fan's perspective.
What I meant was,
I don’t want us to make a significant push for a playoff piece unless we’re clearly that good, which I highly doubt we will be. “Carlos Lee’ed” as I put it, had very little to do with Carlos Lee himself, and much more to do with the idea behind it—i.e. getting that one big piece. If you were to look at the actual Lee deal, then I wouldn’t have a problem doing something similar if the circumstances were ideal.
Maybe an unclear way of framing my idea, but there she is.
by brettgardner on May 26, 2008 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Ok...
that I would agree with. We don’t need to make a deal simply to make one. But if the right situation presents itself we should. But we should only be looking at a Carlos Lee type player if it comes deadline time and we’re either leading the division or within a couple games.
Stars in a Texas Night Sky, a Dallas Stars blog from a fan's perspective.
My impression of the AL West
hasn’t changed a bit this year. I still think that an essentially .500 team, that has one hot month can win it. I think the Rangers are good enough to be a .500 team.
Sharky said it, I believe it, that settles it
Am I the only one who gets creeped out
when Cahill posts something that isn’t negative?
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on May 26, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
+1
Him being “positive” usually comes in the form of a backhanded compliment, though.
"Chase. Dominguez is not really your liking" - Mr Santos
by inactive lsb user on May 26, 2008 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Tough for me to come out
with an unequivocal endorsement of what I think is basicly a 500 club.
Some folks can get all excited by mediocrity, never had that ability. thedirkatron is able to get excited by completely craptastic players like Corey Patterson and Jason Botts, and I don’t understand how you do that.
Sharky said it, I believe it, that settles it
Coery Patterson is the uber-BORP
if he ever came here he’d go freaking NUTS.
Botts was more of a “rooting for a guy I really like and want to see succeed” thing than anything else. Man I wanted him to make it.
But I do think you’ve been more positive lately.
Keep it up!
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on May 26, 2008 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I saw a lot of CoPa in Chicago
my acronym would be FGWCPB (Fast Guy Who Can’t Play Baseball, see Ruddy Yan).
If I was negative in the past, due you think it could have been related to strings of last and 2nd to last place teams, and an accurate assessment of the teams?
Sharky said it, I believe it, that settles it
So long as
you lead the parade, jocundly, when and if the team wins the division(s). It’s only fair.
"Chase. Dominguez is not really your liking" - Mr Santos
by inactive lsb user on May 26, 2008 11:58 PM CDT up reply actions
me too
maybe he’s had a good weekend?
boston siempre! tra
by bosoxsiempregirl on May 26, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Cahill being negative
I think you’ll see him be a lot more positive if the Rangers climb into first place.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
Royals
As a side note, the Royals offense is HORRIBLE. It might be the worst offense I’ve ever seen. Look at their stats for the last month.
If you sent the Red Sox lineup out there with whifflebats, I think they could put up those numbers.
i remember when they were like a game over 500 10 games in and
miles or someone like that was saying it showed how much better trey hillman was than wash.
Gerald Laird is my hero.
Miles thinks that no one is better than Wash
The 40 trumps all!!!
by thedirkatron on May 26, 2008 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah...
one of my good buddies is a Ro’s fan. I perused Royals Review yesterday and noticed their items about Tony Pena Jr. His OPS+ this year? Six.
Knowing this, it shocks me that the Royals didn’t try to arrange a trade for anyone in our minor league system. According to Baseball Prospectus, they have four guys with a WARP1 under zero. I seriously feel sorry for them.
Don't think so
Adam is fairly circumspect. The key phrase is that the upcoming 19 games will be ‘telling’. And I suppose any 19 game stretch is telling since you can win when not expected to do so, and lose when it looks like you shouldn’t.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on May 26, 2008 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Excellent point
I’m not sure why the timing aspect makes this a more ‘telling’ stretch than any other 19-gamer. It shouldn’t affect anything, either way.
"Chase. Dominguez is not really your liking" - Mr Santos
by inactive lsb user on May 26, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
They very well could
But I think it is 2009 that is getting me excited.
"My death certificate will probably say: 'Cause of Death: World Series.'" Jamey Newberg
N L
I, have thought from day 1, the season would hinge on the success against the National. A minimum of 11 wins, is a must. IF, it does not happen, I will be very dissappointed.
vs Angels July 7 - 10
The Rangers have a four game series in July vs the Angels. That could be a very interesting series if the Rangers don’t revert to their early season form.
Also, Adam, I went and looked at the schedule using the link at the top of the LSB page. When you do that, a list of injured players come up on the sidebar on the right. It lists Frank Catalanotto as being on the 60 day DL starting on 5/26. Is that wishful thinking by someone?
Brandon Boggs 2008 Texas Rangers ROY
Oakland is a lot like us in an "evil twin brother" kind of way
Coming into the season, they are one of the only teams that had as many unknown variables as we did. Their pitching was our hitting: a lot of injury risks, a lot of newcomers, but potentially very good, and their hitting was our pitching: could be average, but more than likely bad.
Indeed, their pitching and our hitting has both maximized the potential so far while staying away from injuries. (The exception of course being Rich Harden, whose 15-DL stays are equivalent to the “general soreness” of any other player). On the other hand, their hitting has not been good despite the misleading numbers of runs they have scored. The slugging percentage is almost Royal-esque, and while their lineup feature a lot of “patient” hitters, most are not particularly good against decent pitchers. Custard and BIG HURT are rounding into mid-season form, but their infield has regressed to the norm – all expected. Barton and Emil should improve if they continue to play, and Travis Buck should be back in form sometime later in the season. If they put in the alpha lineup, the 1-5 could be quite good.
Since our pitching problems this season is also well-documented, I won’t waste my time telling you what you already know. Once the medics healed the wounded, both the rotation and bullpen should look better.
Nevertheless, there are still problems with both teams. We will have to wait to find out if Oakland’s rotation can keep up the performance and most importantly, stay healthy. (Remember that health concerns with the rotation was what prompted Beane to take the rebuilding route in the offseason) I still don’t think their bullpen is as good as it has been. We have same injury concerns with our offense, but it’s a lot more likely that we will be able to avoid moderate-to-serious injuries.
Barring any major disasters, we should stay fairly close to Oakland in the standings most of the season. I don’t think Beane will be tempted to do anything unless another BIG HURT event occurs or if they drop out completely, and I think JD will do the same.
Great Post!
If Millwood, Padilla and Ponson pitch to potential (big if) then I believe our rotation is better than their lineup. Those three have the stuff to go lights out for a month. Padilla and Ponson already have.
"Soft part of the schedule"
There is none… After the 19 Adam mentioned, then there are three at the Mets, three against Atlanta, three at Washington, three at Houston, three vs. Philadelphia, three at the Yankees, three at Baltimore, four vs. the hated “Angles” and three vs. the White Sox before the All-Star Break.
The mets have seriously underperformed this year, but with the talent there I wouldn’t call that series a gimme. Atlanta is playing well, and it’ll be just at the time Teixeira usually starts to pull his weight. Washington will be the “soft part” of the schedule, before three against Houston on the road, with the coveted Silver Boot at stake. Then you have Philly, which is all bat, no pitching (both home ballparks are hitter’s parks, but it’s in Arlington, and the Yankees are dangerous. Baltimore is hard to get a read on, before the big series against LAAAAAA that, if Texas does well in the 40 games before it, could make a big statement about the pecking order in the division at the halfway point. Then you have the White Sox, which won’t be an easy task either.
The second half of the season is more of the same… a “soft” series every now and then, but always sandwiched between two tough ones. July 28 through Aug. 3 brings us a homestand, four against Seattle and three against Toronto… no telling what a mess Seattle will be at that time, and Toronto’s toughness depends on who’s pitching. But those seven games are sandwiched between three at Oakland and four at home against the Yankees. Aug. 25 through 27 is three at Kansas City, with three vs. Cleveland before it (we won the series but it sure wasn’t easy) and four vs. Vlad Guerrero in Anaheim following it.
Well
It should be interesting to see where we are after that stretch and how close we have to be with the Angels in order for the Rangers to decide to “go for it”. I get the feeling that Nolan Ryan’s presence in the front office would make us more likely to want to make a trade to put us in win now mode….we will see…
Contending
I think even if millwood comes back strong, sidney ponson will in turn collapse.
I think it would take millwood returning at full strength, padilla having his best year since his all star days, mccarthy being decent when (if) he comes back, etc…..
And it could all be derailed if either milton bradley or josh hamilton goes down for significant time anyway.
Basically…. its possible… but Im not holding my breath. Not that you or anyone else is.
Looking at that schedule list with how the team is generally playing though… well Im certainly interested to see how it goes. This run has been extremely fun and I certainly invite it to continue.
Gerald Laird is my hero.
I was thinking the same thing...
Then everyone can point out how Nolan came in and in 1 year had the Rangers in contention….even though its been mostly JD’s work.
again I don’t have a problem going for it….and I don’t have a problem giving up some prospects, but the return had better be a young guy that we have control of for 2 or 3 years after this one….no stop-gap trades.
Creepy.
"Chase. Dominguez is not really your liking" - Mr Santos
by inactive lsb user on May 26, 2008 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
i still think
the angels are a huge favorite in the west if they are healthy.
agreed
pitching is just so superior to ours in every way, even without escobar.
lackey-weaver-saunders-santana-garland with adenhart possibly getting it together at some point.
our lineup doesnt come close to making up for the difference.
Gerald Laird is my hero.
Time span
The trading deadline is the end of July. Let’s assume there are 56 games to play in that span. Just a guess, I’d think if the Rangers go 41-15 they should add a playoff factor to the team. That would probably be pitching. For example, in 2001 the only significant move the Angels made was to bring up Francisco Rodriguez. Impact, he turned out to be hotter than a stove poker.
If, on the other hand, the team goes 25-21 or worse, let the standings at that time be a determinant. And I’d rule in favor of continuing or enhancing the development plan.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on May 26, 2008 3:13 PM CDT reply actions
I was
thinking about this a couple of days ago but wouldn’t Brandon McCarthy coming back be better than any trades we can make.
probably
Assuming he’s back and pitching to his capabilities.
by Adam J. Morris on May 26, 2008 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Correction
I typo’ed the lesser case W-L should be 25-31.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on May 26, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow...
41-15 Ed. I may die of happiness if that were to happen.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
That's not a prediction
Of course. It’s my take on the hurdle for going “all in” for 2008.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on May 26, 2008 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions
June is a tough month...
...August is worse…
can’t see that happening. but, i also don’t think a 41-15 record is necessary.
34-22 wouldn’t be bad.
by oc on May 26, 2008 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Nobody in MLB is going 41-15
in the next 56 games. That’s an epic streak generally reserved for post-AS Break.
TB is pretty, pretty good and then you have games v. Oakland (who is being vastly underrated), NYM and Cleveland (last two teams may have new managers)....
Remember that Ponson & Feldman are taking the ball every 5th day and that the bully (for the time being) sucks.
Be happy with 8-11.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Oakland underrated?
Their offense kind of sucks. If a pitcher or two goes down or just sucks for a while they’re in big trouble. At the end of the season both TX and OAK are likely to be around .500.
...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.
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