Okay folks, the draft is finally upon us. There is still a huge amount of uncertainty surrounding every pick in the draft. Even the first pick is essentially a coin flip among "experts."
The great Kevin Goldstein had a lengthy chat today at Baseball Prospectus
among the interesting bits:
rian (Kansas City): Who are some surprise names that could fall tomorrow?
Kevin Goldstein: Josh Fields, Aaron Crow, Zach Collier, Tim Melville . . .
SBE (Nashville): Do you expect Hosmer to get tested as an OF by the team that drafts him, or is a 1st baseman all the way?
Kevin Goldstein: I was talking to somebody else today about this, and here's the thing. He's a big, big kid, like 6-4, 225 or so. And he's 18 years old. So when he finishes up, he's what? 6-5/250? He might be able to play there now, but you'd be wasting your time.
Chris (Harrisonburg, VA): Do you think Tyler Ladendorf's power surge this year was for real? Where do you see him going in the draft?
Kevin Goldstein: It's real in the sense that nobody compares him to Jason Tyner anymore, but it's not like he's suddenly a middle-of-the-order hitter or anything. He could go 2nd-3rd round.
Or (Dallas): Heya, KG! What's cracking? Please, please tell me that the Rangers aren't going to spring for Cashner at 11. I feel very nervous. Incidentally, congrats on being the first pundit on the Neftali Feliz bandwagon. It's filling up very quickly now.
Kevin Goldstein: I think they could go in many directions, but I'm not sure Cashner is it. I actually think if all the college guys are gone, they're very high on prepster Ethan Martin. Like anyone in the prospect business, I'm wrong a lot, but at the same time, I wish I saved all of the emails I got calling me an idiot when I have Feliz so far up the Braves list a couple years back. It's important to note that the only positive emails I think I got on that ranking came from people within the game.
Or (Dallas): What's Crow's upside like? Is he a potential #1, or a good 2 on most teams?
Kevin Goldstein: A good #2, or a closer. That's the thing with this year's pitching crop. There's a lot of guys to like, but unlike most years, there not one guy, including Matusz, who everyone looks at and says, "that guy could be an ace" Matusz has a whole lotta 6s on his scouting reports, but not a lot of 7s.
Clark (TX): I have read that Alonso gets knocked because of some ugly splits against LHP, but I haven't seen the stats to back it up. Is there some real concern there?
Kevin Goldstein: Split camp there (pun intended). His splits THIS YEAR against LHP are really brutal, but historiclaly they weren't bad. The biggest concern for me is that scouts who haven't seen the splits have specifically mentions that he has a tendency to guess and cheat vs. lhp.
Bodhizefa (Chapel Thrill, NC): Does Chris Davis' year in Double-A reassure you at all on his prospects as a future big leaguer? Is he going to be a .260 hitter with 35+ homers? Better? Worse?
Kevin Goldstein: Very much so; I think right around there actually sounds right to me.
Also worth checking out:
Baseball Analysts have a draft preview that focuses on two way high school players.
And MLB.com is a good source for scouting reports with video.
And of course, www.baseballamerica.com for their blog updates, top 200, and stock sheets.
That should pretty much get everyone prepared for tomorrow's big day.