BA updated top 100

I am not sure what you mean by deception, but his fastball-changeup combo is quite good. If you listen to the radiocast of Blaze games, you will know that he misses a lot of bats with the changeup. He doesn’t throw 95+ (although it was reported that he did that some times ago), but low 90s fastball is definitely not just “deception”. He is also working on a loopy curveball, if he gets that going, I will throw out the Brandon McCarthy comparison.

and for me, being 10 or 15 is a distinction without much difference when they are all top prospects. As I said, the system is loaded and being in our top 30 means your a stud. One assumption that I make about starting pitchers (which predominates scout-speak around draft time) is that those with big or projectable frames tend to be more successful in the bigs. Poveda is a big tall kid who has gotten bigger and stronger (filled out from 185 to 215). Kiker has a maxed out frame with no projection and that is why some project him as a flame-throwing setup guy or closer. Now that isnt bad at all should it happen, as LH power closers are the shit. So i think projection means 1. possible increase in velocity and 2. being very tall gives you more of a downward (less flat) plane to attack hitters. The shorter you are the more flat the plane becomes presumably making your stuff more hittable. Now if you are 5-10 with junk that moves all over the place, well, all bets are off. So, short people can still dream of the bigs, and, being short myself, that gives me great comfort. That said, let’s look at their stuff:

Poveda (RH) at 64 215, has a solid ave fastball 89-92+93, plus-plus change, ave curve. His projectable frame also implies that his velocity is likely to increase 1-2mph. He throws his change at any count to both rh/lh hitters reducing his splits. Weak flyball pitcher. Strike thrower. DL’d after 3rd game this year and missed next 6 weeks. Hasn’t been the same since returning though his start last night was quite good.

Kiker (LH) at 510 175, has plus fast ball 90-94 (his velocity has dropped this year due to changes in his delivery; not sure if this is a concern right now), plus change, and a curve that could be plus if more consistent. Flyball pitcher. His change in delivery has resulted in a large reduction in so rate with a concomitant reduction in bb rate. I suppose that is the plan this year to work through some mech things. This is why projections are so futile (but fun if I may say) as sometimes they spend the year at lower levels working on stuff to the detriment of their #s and it might not be really clear what the heck is going on until one of the beat writers talks about it or you really dig into the #s.

Now the mnor league #s
Kiker
h/9 8.8 hr/9 .93 bb/9 3.89 k/9 9.07 WHIP 1.41 go/ao (08: 1.23; 07: 0.71)
BAA (08: .289 – lh .323/rh .276; 07: .237)

Poveda
h/9 8.95 hr/9 .72 bb/9 2.65 k/9 8.77 WHIP 1.29 go/ao (08: 1.05; 07: 0.83)
BAA (08: .261 – lh .276/rh .247; 07: .237)

So these career stats look pretty similar. Note Povedas 08 rh/lh BAA this year as evidence of the effectiveness of his changeup compared to Kiker’s split. So if by deception you mean Kiker gets hit harder, then you are right judging by his BAA this year! They both also had dominant campaigns in Clinton last yr (though Poveda’s was the most impressive).

In the end, i think Poveda’s frame, projected incr in velocity, plus plus change and superior control make him as good a prospect as Kiker. A plus plus change is one aspect of Volquez’s game that makes hitters look so stupid. Kiker’s ability to put 3 plus pitches out there in the future makes him a good one too. So there you have it. A tie. Both #3 candidates in the future. And, who cares really, but what a ride.

As for Hunter, if you look at his #s and you might agree with me that he should be at AA. He is still very hittable, with a precipitous decline in his BB/SO rates during his time there.
As for Ramirez, he only ptiched 2 or three games when i put the list together so he’s right where he needed to be based on scouting reports IMO.
One comment on Feliz. I totally didn’t get his promotion to AA but I think I get it now. I suspect that in order to get him to work on his secondary stuff, he had to be in a league that could at least challenge his fastball. I guess that makes sense.

The great thing about lists- you can erase them if you want and repost them in mid-august for another lively discussion.

Peace to the list-makers (especially those who get paid to do them).!

PS if anyone knows of a site which posts historical minor league player data that shows things like go%, BAA lh/rh, Whip, i would be in your debt. None of the main sites seem too: BAA, MiLB, Cube etc…

if science connotes immutable laws with a one to one correspondence with reality, Player rankings connote no such thing. They can, and do in my case, imply a reasoned methodology rooted in player performance, scouting reports, beat-writer gossip, box scores, team need and uncontroversial assumptions about premium positions in the sport. Outside of that, its just a hobby, right? Enjoy it like I do.

its a freedom thing…too many trips abroad to countries with national health care systems. overhyped guy who should be at second, who profiles as utility guy in my book. Didn’t make BA’s top 30 this year (was 31 or 32 I think but pretty high the year before, say 15?) Below ave speed, and on pace for 40ish error season , again. Though, I think I am the only one who thinks this about him. Give me Osuna…

based on 162 game minor league ave in 06 and 08. His projections for 06 (34/33/127) and 08(45/35/136). I meant 30/30 as I wrote in the caption. so yes 30 hr guy. Whether you say he is capable of hitting 25 or 30 or 35 HRs in majors or he is one of the best power hitters in the system, pick whatever one you like. It is projection based on minor league performance. He could flame out like cruz or botts, who knows. If the rangers don;t promote him soon, or place him on the 40 for the rule 5 draft then we will know that the rangers don’t share my glowing opionion of him. Are there any other guys in the system who you would project as 30/30 guys outside those three? If so, what would you base your prjections on? Mayberry may develop into one but right now the swing alterations that have allowed him to hit for ave have reduced his power #s. That change however will keep him in the majors I think.

I am hoping that the next wave of promotions happen by the end of the all-star break. I can’t imagine that it would occur later than the trade deadline.