Chris Dial evaluates A.L. players

by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2008 12:00 PM CDT

Over at BTF, Chris Dial has a rundown of each A.L. regular's value in terms of runs above (or below) average, using runs created for offense and converting zone rating into runs defensively...

Dial's methodology has Grady Sizemore as far and away the best player in the A.L. this year, with Ian Kinsler and Milton Bradley clumped together with ARod, Joe Mauer, and Kevin Youkilis a little ways behind him. Josh Hamilton is tied for 8th with Jason Giambi.

Of note is that Ian Kinsler, despite the huge error totals, doesn't grade out terribly on defense using Dial's system.

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scott rolen

didn’t realize that he’s having such a good year.

i really hope blalock doesn’t give up on being a 3rd baseman. I still think he has a chance at having another couple of good seasons there, given his age.

""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley

by ab03 on Jul 16, 2008 12:03 PM CDT 0 recs

rolen

his offensive numbers are very pedestrian. his defense rating according to Dial’s system is amazing.

by kumizi on Jul 16, 2008 1:36 PM CDT up 0 recs

Our defense is horrible

Only the scores of two of our players (Cat and Laird), do not have negative contributions defensively. Ugh.

by JBImaknee on Jul 16, 2008 12:19 PM CDT 0 recs

You forgot Murphy

in RF

by jcir454 on Jul 16, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up 0 recs

I know I'm being a pedant here

but would it kill him to put his data in tables, and align everything?

by jwiscarson on Jul 16, 2008 12:52 PM CDT 0 recs

I take that back

would it also kill him to review his article for typos, and perhaps capitalize proper nouns?

by jwiscarson on Jul 16, 2008 12:57 PM CDT up 0 recs

You shouldn't have commas

before the “ands”.

Nothing pithy here. Please move long.

by WyoRanger on Jul 16, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up 0 recs

Optional

Different verb-object sets on either side of his comma.

‘review article’, ‘capitalize nouns’ (PS _ I really don’t think it matters)

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Jul 16, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up 0 recs

You got me on the first comment.

Every time I point out someone else’s language issues, I screw up my own.

by jwiscarson on Jul 16, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up 0 recs

Crisp

has some poor defensive numbers on this list.

Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.

by t ball on Jul 16, 2008 12:59 PM CDT 0 recs

Kinsler doesn't grade out terribly?

He’s the fourth worst in the league at his position, and worse than Young is at SS. That’s pretty bad.

"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner

by trza on Jul 16, 2008 1:06 PM CDT 0 recs

Well

It is 3.5 runs below average. That’s not good, but it isn’t “we have to move him off 2B” terrible.

by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2008 1:35 PM CDT up 0 recs

That's true

But the same point could be made about Young, whose defense is only 2.5 runs below average. People around these parts often argue that Young needs to be moved off of short stop.

"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner

by trza on Jul 16, 2008 2:06 PM CDT up 0 recs

If only

Young were as good as Jeter on Defense.

"And I stopped beating my wife just a couple of weeks ago." -John McCain

by DJCahill on Jul 16, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up 0 recs

he'd be above average

Apparenlty.

"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner

by trza on Jul 16, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up 0 recs

Sample size issues

Young has, historically, been much worse than that.

by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2008 3:10 PM CDT up 0 recs

Not trying to be petulant

Honestly, I’m not. But Kinsler’s score is notable, while Young’s should be dismissed because of the small sample size?

"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner

by trza on Jul 16, 2008 4:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

Young has a longer track record...

...of sub-mediocrity…

by Adam J. Morris on Jul 16, 2008 6:17 PM CDT up 0 recs

Doesn't

his bat more than make up for that RIGHT NOW, just like Kinsler’s does. Absolutely, there will be a time when he has to move, but why next year? Why move him to third, where his bat won’t play as well, next year and bring in a stop gap a la Bartlett or Everett or, so help me, Arias. Do they make you better defensively, absolutely (Arias? probably). But their offense is so bad that their OPD will still be in the negatives. I don’t know why you would think that Young wouldn’t still be one of the top overall SS’s in the AL next year. It would make much more sense to keep him there until Andrus is ready. The way he is progressing this season, he is right on pace for 2010, right about the time that Young’s offense should stop carrying his defense.

"So you think the Celtics will beat Detroit? Hell will freeze over before that happens, mark my words." miles 5/20/08

by badradiorules on Jul 17, 2008 1:11 AM CDT up 0 recs

Agreed

And I’ve been something of a critic of Kinsler’s defense, given his apparent regression range-wise. I’m not surprised to learn that he’s second-worst on the team DRS-wise (only to Hamilton). But the nature of his offensive game is such that you can leave him at 2B and still come out far ahead of everybody else. It’s a relatively significant problem, but not so debilitating that it might necessitate moving him to the outfield.

I really want to see a strong second half defensively from Ian.

Baseball Time in Arlington

by jamcadbury on Jul 16, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

Amazing

It is just common knowledge around here that MY has to be moved off of SS ASAP and is the worst shortstop in recorded history. Even though he is the top overall shortstop in the AL by most metrics and better defensively overall than Kinsler by these metrics. Look, I get the fact that he needs to move defensively at some point, but can we chill out a little bit on this until probably 2010.

Can we not ride this out a little bit? Maybe wait until he is no longer one of the best shortstops overall in the AL.

"So you think the Celtics will beat Detroit? Hell will freeze over before that happens, mark my words." miles 5/20/08

by badradiorules on Jul 16, 2008 3:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

Crawford...

I have always wondered what was so special about this guy and on this graph he grades out worse than Laird.

by sftxfan on Jul 16, 2008 1:19 PM CDT 0 recs

It's pretty sad when the best SS in the AL is playing 3B.

Stupid Jeter.

by Athos on Jul 16, 2008 1:50 PM CDT 0 recs

Dial's post in the comments

Showing team totals. Good grief! The Rangers at over 48. Nobody really close.

Wish list: two really, really good starting pitchers (at least one of whom can field his position).

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Jul 16, 2008 1:56 PM CDT 0 recs

Imagine where we might be if the defense weren't nearly 30 runs below-average?

Baseball Time in Arlington

by jamcadbury on Jul 16, 2008 2:41 PM CDT up 0 recs

Only terrible

at pitching instead of irredeemable?

Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.

by t ball on Jul 16, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

im curious

if the majority of you still think Hamilton is a very good defensive center fielder with great range.

I was called some bad names for suggesting otherwise.

by kumizi on Jul 16, 2008 11:55 PM CDT 0 recs

No

Not right now. It is conceivable that he could improve, though. Keep in mind, he spent very little time in the minor leagues and what little development time he had there was erased from his brain by crack. I would think that his reads and jumps will improve over the next year or so as he spends more time out there..

"So you think the Celtics will beat Detroit? Hell will freeze over before that happens, mark my words." miles 5/20/08

by badradiorules on Jul 17, 2008 12:57 AM CDT up 0 recs

Texas OF Defense

i wish that Chris had posted individual numbers for each person at each position. But, going by BP’s numbers, here’s how the various Rangers have sorted out at each position:

Name POS ADJG RATE2
BRANDON BOGGS LF 41.0 90
FRANK CATALANOTTO LF 13.2 66
DAVID MURPHY LF 35.5 85
MARLON BYRD CF 33.5 114
JOSH HAMILTON CF 53.1 76
DAVID MURPHY CF 9.5 101
MILTON BRADLEY RF 16.5 121
MARLON BYRD RF 11.0 91
JOSH HAMILTON RF 28.3 109
DAVID MURPHY RF 38.9 104

according to this, I’d go with a platoon of boggs and Murphy in Left, with Byrd in Center and Hamilton in Right, though Bradley in Right isn’t bad either. But of course sample sizes are an issue.

by iblum on Jul 17, 2008 8:55 AM CDT up 0 recs

I thought

and hoped he’d be better. I expected the OF defense to be much improved, and while I do think its better than last year, it still needs a lot of work.

I don’t think the MIF will ever be that good as long as its Kinsler and Young up the middle. You may be stuck with Kinsler at 2B, but if another option appears, maybe you can move him to OF.

"And I stopped beating my wife just a couple of weeks ago." -John McCain

by DJCahill on Jul 17, 2008 9:29 AM CDT up 0 recs