Ian Kinsler and +/-

by philkid3 on Jul 16, 2008 6:27 PM CDT

Please don't flame.

In the Josh Hamilton and Fun with Numbers post, zkmavz asked:

Any chance you can post some of those fielding stats… mainly focusing on Kinsler compared to other 2B?

He was talking about John Dewan's +/- defensive numbers from Bill James Online. Since I got myself a subscription, I thought I'd answer the question, since Adam didn't (not to step on your toes, AJM).

Kinsler, to this point, ranks 29th among all second basemen with -9, indicating he has failed on nine more plays than the average second baseman would this season.

He has been exactly average on balls hit straight to him and balls to his right. He has a -10 on balls hit to his left. He has a +1 on balls hit in the air, giving him the -9.

This would seem to bear out what we think. His glove work, for whatever reason this season, has been fairly poor, and he's had trouble going towards first. He has the range to many directions, particularly those hit in the air, to make up for it to a degree, though.

Last season he was 9th with a +7. And even in 2006 he was better than this. And, of course, the season is only a bit more than half over. I think it's undeniable that Ian is having a bad season defensively so far, but, just like hitting, players have slumps, sometimes extended slumps.

I also think it's undeniable that he can play second, and he showed last year he can play second very well.

As far as the second part (how he compares to other 2B), he obviously ranks 29th, and here are the top 10 in baseball:

1	Chase Utley	+29
2	Mark Ellis	+24
3	Adam Kennedy	+15
4	Dustin Pedroia	+10
5	Brandon Phillips	+10
6	Jamey Carroll	+4
7	Placido Polanco	+3
8	Dan Uggla	+3
9	Robinson Cano	+2
10	Kelly Johnson	+1

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undeniable that Ian is having a bad season defensively

I’ll deny it. There are just too many variables when considering defensive stats.

"An effortless 98" - Scott Gardner after Neftali Feliz's first AA pitch

by RangerMad on Jul 16, 2008 6:37 PM CDT 0 recs

Yes, there are many variables.

But I still don’t see how you can say he’s not having a bad season defensively. Even if it’s just anecdotal.

by philkid3 on Jul 16, 2008 6:45 PM CDT up 0 recs

He is definitely having a bad season defensively compared to what he is capable of

by Telegraph on Jul 16, 2008 6:45 PM CDT 0 recs

That is probably he best way to put it.

"An effortless 98" - Scott Gardner after Neftali Feliz's first AA pitch

by RangerMad on Jul 16, 2008 7:12 PM CDT up 0 recs

Looks like Joey was right

http://mvn.com/mlb-rangers/2008/07/04/deconstructing-ian-kinslers-defense-or-lack-thereof/

Give it a Name

by jparks77 on Jul 16, 2008 6:50 PM CDT 0 recs

While browsing other leaderboards, I came across something very interesting.

Brandon Boggs is tied for third among MLB left fielders with +8. Second in the AL behind Carl Crawford, who leads baseball with +13.

That’s actually his enhanced score (for outfielders, also judging the number of bases they’ve prevented, not just plays they’ve made).

by philkid3 on Jul 16, 2008 7:42 PM CDT 0 recs

So

doesn’t that mean that Ian should probably start positioning himself more to the left? Is it just how the Rangers IF defense is positioned that makes his range to the left look so poor?

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg1 on Jul 16, 2008 7:53 PM CDT 0 recs

That could be.

Interesting thought.

by philkid3 on Jul 16, 2008 7:55 PM CDT up 0 recs

Ian's positioning

here’s a thought, it could be completely wrong…

what if kinsler’s poor range to his left is caused by crappy Ranger pitching seemingly always having a runner on 1st?

thus more plays where kinsler must be covering 2nd on possible steal attempts… or perhaps moving to his right a bit in order to more quickly turn a double play?

by tangiers on Jul 17, 2008 1:13 AM CDT up 1 recs

+1

Not necessarily for agreement, but for good food for thought.

by philkid3 on Jul 17, 2008 1:47 AM CDT up 0 recs

David Murphy

David Murphy is also tied for 6th among right fielders +7. That’s good for a third-place tie in the NL.

That’s not as surprising to me as Boggs, as I considered picking him for a first-half Gold Glove, and did have him on my Gold Glove team at the end of May for another message board.

He’s also been a +1 in left, but a -8 in center.

by philkid3 on Jul 16, 2008 8:00 PM CDT 0 recs

Kinsler's D

You can’t convince me that Kinsler is worse defensively than Dan Uggla who was terrible in all defensive stats last year (ZR, RZR, PMR, Dewan’s +/-), but is a +3 this year.

I think one half of a season is too small of a sample size, and I’d prefer to see what the stats look like at the end of the season before drawing any conclusions.

by jcir454 on Jul 16, 2008 8:41 PM CDT 0 recs

I wouldn't really try to convince you Uggla is better than Kinsler defensively.

Kinsler was much better in +/- last year, as well. +7 to -19 for Uggla.

This is only one season, and it’s only a little more than half way over. Anyone who said that proves Uggla is better than Kinsler defensively is pretty ignorant. Like you said, sample size.

But, there’s ample evidence that SO FAR THIS SEASON Uggla has been better than Kinsler. Just like there’s evidence that Ryan Ludwick has been hitting better so far this year than Magglio Ordonez. That doesn’t mean Ludwick is definitively a better hitter, and it’s even, in fact, very unlikely that he is. It just means he’s had a better 3 1/2 months.

This topic was just answering someone’s question.

by philkid3 on Jul 16, 2008 9:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

Agree completely

I think Kinsler has played bad defense in the first half, but like you said it doesn’t necessarily make him a bad defensive 2b.

I just was commenting that even a bad defensive 2b like Uggla can make enough plays in one half to place top 10 on a defensive stat list like this one.

by jcir454 on Jul 16, 2008 10:02 PM CDT up 0 recs

Okay

by philkid3 on Jul 16, 2008 10:28 PM CDT up 0 recs

Fast Infield?

I had the misfortune of having to watch the Saturday evening Ranger/White Sox game on WGN. If those two knuckleheads said it once, they said it ten times that the infield at RBiA is faster than artificial turf. The Hawk kept saying if the ball wasn’t hit within two steps either side of the fielder, they had no chance of making a play.

So maybe this has an effect. However, this would have to assume that the playing surface was slower last year than this year.

by T Coleman on Jul 16, 2008 10:12 PM CDT 0 recs

Agreed

Although it wouldn’t necessarily have to assume it was slower last year (unless you know something about +/- I’ve never noticed). It would just mean Ian coped better last year. Certainly, though, it could be something that makes his job harder and should be considered. I would love to see a study on how fast our infield is and how much an infield can make a difference. Anecdotally it would suggest a lot, but actual evidence would be more interesting.

But yeah, they were annoying. It was somewhat interesting the first time they said it. The next 30 were ridiculous.

by philkid3 on Jul 16, 2008 10:30 PM CDT up 0 recs

Very interesting

I’d love to see some defensive metrics that take into account park factors. This could slightly explain Kinsler’s and MY’s range problems. You would also think with the Rangers philosophy (Home run hitting offense/ground ball pitchers), that they would let the grass grow a little longer and water the heck out of the infield. I know it’s tough in that heat, but you would think that they would make sure that they had one of the slowest infields in baseball.

"So you think the Celtics will beat Detroit? Hell will freeze over before that happens, mark my words." miles 5/20/08

by badradiorules on Jul 17, 2008 12:22 AM CDT up 0 recs

That's what the Rockies do.

Slow, slow infield. And just going back year by year, they’ve had EXCELLENT middle infielders. Plus/minus would suggest at least someone in the Gold Glove argument every year pretty much.

Tulowitzki really was that good last year, but I don’t think every fielder they’ve had is really elite. That would lead me to believe their infield makes a difference. And that maybe it would be a good idea for us, too.

by philkid3 on Jul 17, 2008 1:49 AM CDT up 0 recs