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Bedard out until August

More bad news for our friends in Seattle...Erik Bedard's shoulder tightness will keep him out until August...

That means he can't be traded before the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31, and given that someone will put in a waiver claim on him after July 31, it means that the M's are probably going to have to wait until the offseason to try to get some value back for the guy they sold the farm to obtain just months ago.

There was also a fair amount of talk this offseason about how Bedard was a proven ace, and that the Rangers needed to be willing to pay top dollar to try to acquire him from the Orioles...

This season has shown, though, once again, that Bedard isn't a legit ace...he's a very good top of the rotation caliber starter who isn't going to be able to work deep into games, or make 32 starts for you in a season, because of his durability issues.

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Bedard and "Aces"

The Bedard saga really just demonstrates that an “Ace” is even rarer than people think. There just are not that many out there, and every time a team tries to force an okay #1 or good #2 into the “Ace” role, the get bit hard.

Look at Bedard’s numbers before the trade. 2007 was obviously very good, with 221 K’s in 182 innings and a 3.16 ERA. But he’d never had a 200IP year and his previous best ERA was 3.76. And he wasn’t particularly young when they traded for him.

The moral of the story is to really watch out for guys who are purported to be an “ace” after only one good/great year. There are always guys like that available (Jon Garland after 2005 is another example)

The flip side is that if you have a guy who is getting older who puts up a Cy Young caliber year all of a sudden, you should trade him for whatever you can get. Think the A’s and Dan Haren – they were able to rebuild their system by trading a guy after his career year.

The only guys who I would trade top prospects for are young guys whose potential is unquestioned (aka Kazmir, Grienke, Felix, Lincecum) or guys who are very established and close to free agency (Sheets, Sabathia) or locked into long contracts that need dumping (Oswalt, Peavy). Obviously all of these guys have different values, but all can be smart acquisitions

Trading for older guys (28, 29) who have a short track record (1-2 good years) yet are still close to free agency seems like a great way to get burned. Same goes to signing guys off of one or two good years, as we in Texas all know…

by JBImaknee on Jul 19, 2008 2:24 PM CDT reply actions  

Except

Haren is still completely dominating (.95 whip, 8.02 k/9)

by slimshadty12 on Jul 19, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Haren worked out

but he also cost the Diamondbacks half their farm, and I think that most people thought that Bedard would have been better this year. My point is that guys like Haren and Bedard are risky – they don’t always fail (Haren), but when they do its costly (Bedard)

by JBImaknee on Jul 19, 2008 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Haren and Bedard are not the same

Haren just turned 27 when he was traded, was coming off his 3rd straight season of 210+IP, had been a good pitcher in the 2 years before his tremendous season, and looked to be a pitcher on the rise. Bedard was 28 going on 29 when traded, had injuries cut his seasons short almost each season he’s pitched, and as you mentioned never had 200 IP over a season. He is a very good pitcher, some might say great. Injuries though are destroying his career as well as potentially being a lazy S.O.B (if the anonymous Mariners reports are true).

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jul 19, 2008 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

strange

for a guy like you who thinks McCarthy is an ace quality pitcher to have such opinions about a guy like Bedard who has actually shown something close to ace quality pitching from time to time

by bronco28 on Jul 19, 2008 2:52 PM CDT reply actions  

AJM thinks McCarthy is an ace quality pticher?

"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005

by Agreen07 on Jul 19, 2008 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Damn M's

pissed me off yesterday when they called up one of their prospects, Lahair it was and then optioned Tuglett to Tacoma. Tug only played in one game.

Z… I was proud of our boy Tuglett when he got his first Major League hit.

Maybe I should head on over to LL and raise some hell with Jeff about this.

"Over the years, my favorite pastime outside baseball is driving through a pasture looking at cattle." - Nolan Ryan

by hurlerhurley on Jul 19, 2008 3:06 PM CDT reply actions  

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