On Nelson Cruz
Ken Rosenthal's latest has some tidbits on the Rangers:
The Rangers, who probably will not trade designated hitter Milton Bradley unless they receive an overwhelming offer, are getting calls on two of their right-handed hitting outfielders — Marlon Byrd and Nelson Cruz, who has hit 31 home runs in 314 at-bats at Class AAA. Both offer versatility; Byrd can play center, Cruz right ...
I agree on Bradley...I think he's likely a Ranger the rest of the year, in part because I think the Rangers want to bring him back after the season (and however nice the "trade him and then re-sign him" idea seems in theory, practically speaking, it is problematic), and in part because I don't think there's a team out there that is going to give up a whole lot for him, given his injury history and reputation.
Cruz is a more interesting topic, and more and more, I've been seeing people urging the Rangers to call up Cruz and let him play right field regularly the rest of the way.
Personally, I think it makes more sense to go ahead and leave him in the minors, and then get whatever you can for him at the trade deadline, and move on.
Why not call him up now, if your plan is to trade him? Personally, I don't think calling him up can do anything but hurt his trade value. If he comes up and hits well in a week or two of semi-regular playing time, I don't think it does anything to help his value. But if he comes up and flops, I think it does make him less attractive. Letting him continue to mash in AAA is the best way to keep his value up.
The other argument is to hold onto him...don't let him go elsewhere, but keep him here and see if he can be at least a part-time outfielder for the Rangers.
The problem there, though, that I see is that, strange as it may seem, the Rangers have gone from having holes in the outfield to being pretty full up there. You have Hamilton locked into centerfield, and I think the Rangers would like to bring Milton Bradley back next season and have him get the majority of the playing time in right field. If Bradley isn't your right fielder, you've got John Mayberry, Jr., who would seem likely to end up out there, unless you decide that Brandon Boggs should be playing every day.
And you also have Julio Borbon, who I'm starting to think likely is going to push Hamilton to right field in the next season or two. And your DH position looks like it is going to be filled by Max Ramirez when Bradley or Hamilton isn't using it to get a day off.
Going with Cruz requires a commitment to him that it just doesn't necessarily look sensible to make right now. He's 28 years old, has had opportunities here, hasn't done much with them, and looks to have been passed up by guys like Murphy, Boggs and Mayberry. I think it makes the most sense to see if you can get something halfway decent for him, a Beau Jones type A ball live arm, and move on.
If no one wants to give you anything better than a Scott Shoemaker or Michael Hernandez for him, and you can turn Marlon Byrd into something decent? In that case, I'd maybe move Byrd and let Cruz have the 4th outfielder role for the final two months. But I wouldn't be pencilling Cruz in as part of the long-term future of this team, even in that case.
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Hardly
I’ve reconciled to the notion that he’ll have a five or six year (short) career elsewhere. Being the best RH power hitter in the system caught me up, and his MLB failure to hit puzzles me still. But if the Rangers pass him on, say to the Cardinals or elsewhere, I only hope they get back usable talent.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on
Jul 21, 2008 10:45 AM CDT
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Cruz
<
Personally, I think it makes more sense to go ahead and leave him in the minors, and then get whatever you can for him at the trade deadline, and move on.>
Amen to that.
by Randy Richardson on Jul 21, 2008 10:20 AM CDT 0 recs
I think that
if you want to re-sign Bradley after the year, the time is now to approach him with a fair offer. If he seems to want significantly more, or wants to wait til after the season, I think you deal him. I don’t see a lot of value in waiting til the offseason to negotiate.
"And I stopped beating my wife just a couple of weeks ago." -John McCain
by DJCahill on Jul 21, 2008 10:22 AM CDT 0 recs
i'll bet after the deadline,
just in case they are overwhelmed by an offer, they will approach him about an extension.
by tyd3311 on
Jul 21, 2008 10:24 AM CDT
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I'd rather
do the negotiation when you still have alternatives if you can’t get a deal done. If you do it after the deadline, you might as well wait for the offseason. My guess is though, if you wait til the offseason, most likely MB will at least kick the tires on other teams.
"And I stopped beating my wife just a couple of weeks ago." -John McCain
by DJCahill on
Jul 21, 2008 10:49 AM CDT
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Bradley
I think the Rangers are perfectly fine taking the draft picks if he decides to walk so offering an extension before thinking about trading him isn’t really necessary.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on
Jul 21, 2008 10:54 AM CDT
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im starting to come to that conclusion as well
im also thinking people are way overestimating the ease of resigning MB.
"Do they know who I am? Do they know my status? Thats what I thought."
-Miles 6/21/08
.501 or bust!
by Jayslick on
Jul 21, 2008 12:42 PM CDT
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I think he will be a tough re-sign
I also think you will get significantly more for him if you trade him, than 2 draft picks. That’s why I would advocate trying to re-sign him, and if he hesitates, look to shop him. If he isn’t going to sign now, he isn’t going to sign in the offseason before testing the free agency waters, I don’t think
"And I stopped beating my wife just a couple of weeks ago." -John McCain
by DJCahill on
Jul 21, 2008 1:34 PM CDT
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lessen value
Would Bradley’s value go down if he were to sign a multi-year deal now before the deadline? I think the Rangers offer him arbitration in the offseason. If Milton accepts then they try to workout a multi-year deal. If he doesn’t accept, the Rangers happily take the draft picks.
"An effortless 98" - Scott Gardner after Neftali Feliz's first AA pitch
by RangerMad on
Jul 21, 2008 1:56 PM CDT
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The other catch to all of this
that I do think people think about (as they should) is that Bradley seems to get along great as long as a guy like Washington (and might there only be one guy like that in baseball that knows just how to handle Bradley?) is here. I don’t think there is any guarantee that Washington is going to be here for all of 2009, much less however long this extension would be.
And if you change managers, are you going to make “getting along with Milton” a key qualification? Do you really want to hire a manager based on that? Bradley had some pretty serious problems with Wedge, and even in other spots where his relationship with his manager wasn’t a huge problem, the fact that there wasn’t someone there to cool him off was.
by zywica on
Jul 21, 2008 2:28 PM CDT
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This is the kind of decision
where I do not have much confidence in Daniels. I think he’s too optimistic on stuff like this and puts a little too much stock in chemistry and “character”. However, I am confident that if he feels like Bradley is too much of a risk for health and blowups (Washington’s soothiness aside), or if he feels the price is too high to keep him, he will not hesitate to let Bradley go.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on
Jul 21, 2008 2:31 PM CDT
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DH situation next year
I’m a little scared to assume continued health from both Bradley and Hamilton, but…assuming they resign Bradley we’d have an outfield mix of Hamilton, Bradley, Murphy, Boggs and Mayberry, maybe Byrd if he’s still around. I’ll take my chances with that group.
DH might get crowded, though, if Ramirez is there and Bradley likely to need days off from RF regularly and also trying to rest other guys occasionally. Still, that remains a powerful lineup with tons of power.
Does that mean that only one of Laird, Salty, and Tea is traded and the other two catch? Or that two are traded and you sign a serviceable backup and stick Ramirez at DH? I’m not at all sold on Ramirez at catcher, despite his imitation of a brick wall and awesome throw to third.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on Jul 21, 2008 10:25 AM CDT 0 recs
Borbon
in the next year or two could make the outfield even more confusing.
by meatbonelefty on
Jul 21, 2008 10:26 AM CDT
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I don't think so
I think Hamilton and Borbon are the only sure bets to be here in 2010.
by northtexan95 on
Jul 21, 2008 10:34 AM CDT
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a Borbon lovefest
Can we see if he can hit in AAA before we anoint him the next… Juan Pierre. :)
"An effortless 98" - Scott Gardner after Neftali Feliz's first AA pitch
by RangerMad on
Jul 21, 2008 10:39 AM CDT
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This is the internet....
why wait. His replacement will be better any way. ;-)
Pinkey, Are you thinking what I am thinking? I think so Brain, but where are we going to get a burlap sack and a rubber chicken this time of night?
by LBBRangerFan on
Jul 21, 2008 10:41 AM CDT
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hasnt stopped TT fans...
"Do they know who I am? Do they know my status? Thats what I thought."
-Miles 6/21/08
.501 or bust!
by Jayslick on
Jul 21, 2008 12:43 PM CDT
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TT has an above average OPS
at AAA. His average does look bad, but I think we pretty much know what he is at this point. He’ll be lucky to hit .250 in the majors, but he’ll do it with a .330-.350 OBP and decent power for a catcher.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on
Jul 21, 2008 2:14 PM CDT
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I don't get it
how can you label Teagarden as a guy who will “be lucky to hit .250 in the majors” when he had such dominance at AA? I don’t know if he’s ready offensively for the majors yet, and unless we trade 2 of our catchers this year, I see no reason to put him as the full time catcher on this major league team. I think he needs another half year at least in AAA to see if he can bring his hitting up there. Defensively, he’s good to go…but how can you just say that his true colors are the AAA numbers he’s putting together right now?
"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 21, 2008 2:44 PM CDT
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I didn't say he couldn't do it
I just said he’d be lucky. Last year looks like something of an aberration, he’s not that good a hitter. You can count on him to draw walks, but he is not a .300 hitter.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on
Jul 21, 2008 2:50 PM CDT
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It's not very hard to
label him as that. I think that his AA numbers deceived some people.
by zywica on
Jul 21, 2008 4:08 PM CDT
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That problem can be solved then
and a lot can happen between now and then. Borbon still has work to do, and any number of things could go wrong or right over the next year or two with him or any of the other guys.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on
Jul 21, 2008 10:38 AM CDT
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Hamilton and Bradley and the DH
I think the Rangers are going to make a concerted effort to minimize Hamiltons time in CF. I think if we bring Bradley back it will be as primarily a DH who can play the OF occasionally to give others a day off. I wouldn’t mind keeping Byrd for his CF abilities next year until Borbon is ready to come up and lock down that position. One of Boggs/Murphy/JMJ should get traded.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on
Jul 21, 2008 10:43 AM CDT
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Byrd and Cat
are as good as gone, I would think. JMJ hasn’t proven he can hit MLB pitching anymore than Cruz has. The only constants I think you can rely on are Bradley, Hamilton, Boggs and Murphy. I wouldn’t mind rolling into 2009 with those as my 4 starting outfielders, with a fifth guy in Mayberry a possibility, as he could back up both the OF and 1B positions if necessary. Then roll with Max and the most experienced catcher left that we don’t trade: Laird, Salty or Teagarden. Max and Salty can both back up the 1B if necessary as well, although I would use that as an emergency situation. Borbon is a year away – I wouldn’t consider him a threat for anybody’s playing time just yet…
"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 21, 2008 3:02 PM CDT
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I have doubts
that Cat is as good as gone. I can’t see anyone wanting to take on that salary for the limited value he brings. $6 mil is fairly steep for a year and a half of a .750 OPS platoon DH with limited defensive skills.
"And I stopped beating my wife just a couple of weeks ago." -John McCain
by DJCahill on
Jul 21, 2008 3:22 PM CDT
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outfield
It’s really nice that it has gone for a perpetual problem to an area of strength. I expect the Rangers to roll with Hamilton, Murphy, and Bradley next year with Boggs as fourth outfielder, and Borbon, Hamilton, Mayberry Jr. after that, with Bradley and Max at DH.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
by trza on Jul 21, 2008 10:28 AM CDT 0 recs
Leaving Cruz in the minors
That strategy assumes you’ll get significant talent back.
That makes no sense.
Get all your scouts together, pool the opinion, and go with that. Nelson Cruz is not a valuable player.
That said, is he the OF version of Carlos Pena?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Jul 21, 2008 10:28 AM CDT 0 recs
In fact
He’s been about as bad as he has ever been, even back in 2002-03 when he was in the process of going from an elite prospect to someone who couldn’t get a major league job.
He isn’t the only late bloomer around, though.
by zywica on
Jul 21, 2008 11:08 AM CDT
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Pena was great
when he was looking for a contract.
Not so great now that he has one.
"And I stopped beating my wife just a couple of weeks ago." -John McCain
by DJCahill on
Jul 21, 2008 10:59 AM CDT
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pena was looking for a contract plenty of times before that
and didnt do anything.
he just had a career year.
the preceding post is not nearly as negative or insulting as you think it is
by DSheppard on
Jul 21, 2008 11:26 AM CDT
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Pena
is just stepping back and letting the kids steal the show in Tampa. He’ll step it up when they need it
by JBImaknee on
Jul 21, 2008 11:36 AM CDT
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David Murphy
is going to scar you by shooting electricity out of his fingertips for leaving his name out of the OF discussion. He’s a starting MLB OF… on this team, both now and in the future, and on many others.
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on Jul 21, 2008 10:28 AM CDT 0 recs
i think Adam didn't even mention LF
because he assumes that Murphy will be there for the future, even if he’s benched against lefties.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
by willamos2 on
Jul 21, 2008 10:35 AM CDT
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Perhaps you are correct.
I assumed that if Borbon/Ham took CF/RF that JMJ/Bradley would take the LF spot. I may have assumed incorrectly. If so, -1 for me. If not, electricity from fingertips.
There is no such thing as global warming. David Murphy was cold, so he turned the sun up.
by SarasotaRanger on
Jul 21, 2008 10:47 AM CDT
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JMJ
I don’t think he has the range the Rangers would want from their LF.
by Adam J. Morris on
Jul 21, 2008 10:48 AM CDT
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Hamilton could though
I don’t really think Josh will stick in CF past this year because of his durabilty concerns. But why can’t he play LF instead of RF when he gets moved? He played all three OF positons when he was in Cincy…
Classic iorange555: "lmao too bad i watched [the all-star game] at a friends house ;[ much funer on here"
by lonestarJon on
Jul 21, 2008 11:12 AM CDT
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question:
are you assuming Hamilton will get worse over the next 3 years, or better, in regards to general health? I would assume that the more years removed from his drug use, the stronger and generally healthier he gets. That is, to a certain point, when his body reaches the age that all bodies start to break down…then it could hit rapidly
"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 21, 2008 3:12 PM CDT
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I think he's got a few years left of good health
But I do think that once he gets up around/over 30, he could begin to decline rapidly, as you said. I think the Rangers know that too, considering he’s really been playing a lot more RF than CF of late – so that’s why I don’t think he’ll have the label as the “starting CF” for a whole lot longer.
by lonestarJon on
Jul 22, 2008 7:33 AM CDT
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Borbon
would force Hammy to right forcing Bradley to left or DH and Bradley is way too athletic and young to be a full time DH.
by meatbonelefty on Jul 21, 2008 10:29 AM CDT 0 recs
Hamilton to left
I want Hamilton playing in the huge left field at the Ballpark.
by northtexan95 on
Jul 21, 2008 10:36 AM CDT
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You want Hamilton in Right
because he has the golden arm necessary to be a dominant right fielder (keep guys from going from 1st to 3rd)...
In left field you want a rangy guy whose arm may not be his biggest asset – even Johnny Damon can throw guys out going from first to third on a single to left…
by JBImaknee on
Jul 21, 2008 11:07 AM CDT
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It makes sense
If Borbon is your centerfielder and Hamilton and Bradley or Cruz are your other two outfielders. Both Bradley and Cruz have the arm to play right and neither have the range to play left field at RBiA. To me you align your outfielders for range over arm strength any day.
"So you think the Celtics will beat Detroit? Hell will freeze over before that happens, mark my words." miles 5/20/08
by badradiorules on
Jul 21, 2008 11:13 AM CDT
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+1
Left field is huge at the ballpark. If the question is Hamilton and Bradley, put Hamilton in left and Bradley in right. If it’s someone other than Bradley then it’s debatable.
by northtexan95 on
Jul 21, 2008 11:16 AM CDT
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It still doesn't make sense
The main reason for having Hamilton in right is to keep him healthy while fully utilizing his arm. As various people have mentioned, our LF and CF (obviously) need to be rangy. Stick Ham at RF and you decrease the risk for injury, theoretically at least.
by LiamP on
Jul 21, 2008 11:48 AM CDT
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Space in the outfield
The actual amount of space isn’t the big deal.
CF has to cover the RF & LF. Even on a ball hit into the corner, the CF has to at least trot in the general direction to pick it up if the RF/LF makes a dive or slams a wall. As a CF, you basically run towards every single ball hit into the outfield.
As a RF or LF, you cover the CF. When all is said and done, you run after 50% of the balls hit into the outfield (maybe a little more if you count a percentage for those that are too close to dead center and all 3 guys go for it).
Cutting in half the amount of balls you’re chasing after is the justification in moving a guy off of center. Having a little more space in LF as compared to RF isn’t going to substantially change the “risk of injury” to Hamilton.
Your low self-esteem is just good common sense.
by Oracle Galvez on
Jul 21, 2008 12:33 PM CDT
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Bradley
The way you put it here, whether the org keeps him kinda sounds like a referendum on Max.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Jul 21, 2008 10:29 AM CDT 0 recs
Not really
not if they’re assuming Bradley is healthy enough to play RF instead of DHing every day.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on
Jul 21, 2008 10:40 AM CDT
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Healthy enough to play RF
I got to admit, he hasn’t done anything to leave me with that impression.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on
Jul 21, 2008 10:49 AM CDT
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I agree, but
maybe next year he’d be ok. I have my doubts.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on
Jul 21, 2008 10:58 AM CDT
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3B
If you have an everyday 3B, then you can afford to have both Max and Bradley. You can’t have Max and MB split DH/C, DH/RF duties without a Chris Stewart type backup C. Without a FT 3B, you have no full-time UTL (Duran) and find yourself in a situation with a Laird-type guy playing 3B at some point.
by robert_d_wilfong on
Jul 21, 2008 11:18 AM CDT
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couple of other things on Cruz
Adam, you failed to mention that Cruz is out of options and will be a FA after the season if he is not on someones 40. He has had his chances. Time for him to move on for whatever JD can get.
"An effortless 98" - Scott Gardner after Neftali Feliz's first AA pitch
by RangerMad on Jul 21, 2008 10:37 AM CDT 0 recs
agree
Pinkey, Are you thinking what I am thinking? I think so Brain, but where are we going to get a burlap sack and a rubber chicken this time of night?
by LBBRangerFan on
Jul 21, 2008 10:44 AM CDT
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I think that's understood
And I think that’s why it makes more sense to move him now, as well.
If he comes up, puts up a .275/.325/.425 line and doesn’t fit in the picture next year for us, you’re going to have less leverage, and get less value for him.
by Adam J. Morris on
Jul 21, 2008 10:44 AM CDT
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Value
The value you’ll get from Nelson Cruz, the human dice roll, is a bigger dice roll.
An A arm? Another Mendoza?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on
Jul 21, 2008 10:50 AM CDT
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That’s why the real story is Bradley.
He will be traded. It’d be astonishing if JD wasn’t already weighing trade packages.
If you’re the Texas Rangers, you don’t hoard DHs.
You hoard PITCHING.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on
Jul 21, 2008 10:56 AM CDT
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which is what we've been doing for the past couple of years.
by tyd3311 on
Jul 21, 2008 11:04 AM CDT
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why..
volquez allowed us to get the most talented player in the game
by tyd3311 on
Jul 21, 2008 2:50 PM CDT
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and Danks
was traded for a pitcher, so that neither confirms nor repudiates a strategy of hoarding pitching.
by Back Door Yakker on
Jul 21, 2008 2:53 PM CDT
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It is what it is..
we have been hoarding pitchers, i mean look at all the stinkin prospects in our system, it started with the DVD crew.
by tyd3311 on
Jul 21, 2008 3:00 PM CDT
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Also, it was not like we traded Danks for a platoon left fielder
We got a starting pitcher in return, it was just a deal that has not worked out.
Pinkey, Are you thinking what I am thinking? I think so Brain, but where are we going to get a burlap sack and a rubber chicken this time of night?
by LBBRangerFan on
Jul 21, 2008 2:52 PM CDT
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As we've seen this year
depth at pitching is a very good thing to have.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on
Jul 21, 2008 10:58 AM CDT
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If that includes a .290/.340/.500 vs LHP, different story
Plus defensive OF with a useable platoon split. Not a bad thing.
by Baider on
Jul 21, 2008 11:41 AM CDT
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Our outfielders
I’d love to move Cruz for an interesting arm, and I have little faith that what he’s doing in AAA is for real. With that said, I am uncomfortable with the notion that the Rangers have a full OF picture. They have one (1) quality OF at this point and a host of others with big questions. Mayberry and Borbon are big question marks, and Boggs and Murphy have made it clear that they are major leaguers but have not made it clear that either of them is more than a platoon type. If the goal is to have Hamilton and four other platoon, borderline 3rd/4th outfielders to go with him, along the lines of what they have now, then yes, the outfield is full. If they are looking for above average players, they have one so far out of three positions.
So again, if you can get something for Cruz, do so. If you can’t, his upside is such that you should have him in Arlington (at least post-deadline) rather than Byrd or Mayberry. You might as well make sure that you don’t have anything at that point.
by zywica on Jul 21, 2008 10:57 AM CDT 0 recs
Correction
They have zero outfielders without question marks. I would never count on a full season from Hamilton, always at least some risk there.
For 2009 I think the outfield situation is ok. Mayberry seems like the weakest link, but no one is playing insanely above their heads in that group so I’d think production would be satisfactory even if no moves were made to add anyone. For the long term I’d still like to see them acquire another CF as a hedge for Borbon, but for 2009 they’re probably ok, even with Bradley DHing. Pitching is definitely more of a concern.
Still, I like your idea of giving Cruz another look if a deal isn’t made. Nothing to lose there.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on
Jul 21, 2008 11:13 AM CDT
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Cruz
Trade Cruz for a pitcher….send him to Tampa for Niemann…...there must be some hidden reason Texas does not believe in Cruz…..can he hit a major league slider…..? I think he can….and after demolishing AAA give the kid a chance to have a career somewhere else….
by Split Decision on Jul 21, 2008 11:07 AM CDT 0 recs


