Vicente Padilla is almost a CY Candidate?

by Agreen07 on Jul 22, 2008 5:42 PM CDT Comment 23 comments

Something to ponder…Here are Padilla’s current stats for the season:

Games Started = 19

IP= 114.3

ERA= 4.41

WHIP= 1.408

Now, amazingly if we remove his 3 worst starts from his 19 starts this year, we have a pitcher who has pitched 16 games at a Cy-Young level (that is debatable but after adjusting for park-factors I think you could make a legitimate case).

Games Started = 16 (removed worst 3 starts)

IP= 102.2

ERA= 2.98

WHIP= 1.28

How bad were the 3 games I removed from Padilla’s stats?

April 22 @ Det = 3 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 ER

June 28 vs. Phi = 6 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 7 ER

July 4 @ Bal = 2.2 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 8 ER

I think this is something to think about before people make their minds up about whether or not they want Padilla to be traded or what they think about his performance this year thus far. He is clearly pitching much better than his ERA+ of 94, and if you eliminate those three games you get a pitcher with an ERA + of about 140. It certainly opened my eyes up a bit as to just how good of a season he has had thus far.

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I want Millwood.....

to be traded, I dont want Padilla traded, because, Padilla’s upside is larger than Millwood and his cost, although not by much, is less! YOU SHOULD just about take out the June and July start b/c he was injured and was trying to pitch through it for the team, which is another big step for this guy. So I say the only way you trade Padilla is if you are overwhelmed!

by blueballlefty on Jul 22, 2008 5:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

he's a talented pitcher

IF you could take away those 3 duds he’d be pitching like an ace, but an ace needs to bring it consistently and you really just dont know what to expect with padilla.
i dont want him to be traded but i just dont think mentally he’s ever gonna be the kind of guy that brings the same stuff every 5th night…he’s just too mercurial and eccentric.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 22, 2008 5:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

well he kinda has been consistant

if you take out the two games where he was injured then you have a guy who is going to go out there
%95 of the time and give you 7+ inning’s with 2 or less runs and K a guy per inning and thats pretty damn good!

by blueballlefty on Jul 22, 2008 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

compared to similar pitchers

id say he hasnt really been that consistent. looking at some quick data, he has a higher standard deviation in earned runs over each of his starts than other AL pitchers with a similar number of starts and roughly similar ERAs:

V. Padilla – 19 starts, 4.41 ERA, s=2.438
D. McGowan – 19 starts, 4.37 ERA, s=1.979
J. Garlands – 20 starts, 4.12 ERA, s=2.150
J. Vavquez – 20 starts, 4.57 ERA, s=1.560
G. Meche – 21 starts, 4.55 ERA, s=1.961
A. Sonnanstine – 19 starts, 4.58 ERA, s=2.121

if anything he is rather inconsistent compared to his peers.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 22, 2008 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is his standard deviation

if you remove the three atrocious starts?

"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005

by Agreen07 on Jul 22, 2008 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it drops to 1.586

probably would compare favorably to other AL starters with a sub-3.00 ERA.

my point is that you have to consider the wider spectrum of results padilla delivers, sometimes brilliant, sometimes ugly. would i rather have a guy like Vazquez than Padilla, even though their ERA+ are almost identical (94 to 95)? Yes, because Vazquez gets his results consistently, though without dominating much this year.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 22, 2008 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but my point is

He had two starts earlier this month and at the end of June where he was INJURED and tried to pitch through it for the team, so I think you CAN take those starts out, for this discussion!

by blueballlefty on Jul 23, 2008 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just a hunch, but I bet a lot of pitchers would look pretty good with their three worst starts removed

There’s something inherently flawed about selectively choosing data; ultimately, those three starts account for a fairly significant chunk of negative value, and you can’t just summarily dismiss that.

Baseball Time in Arlington

by jamcadbury on Jul 22, 2008 6:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Pads will always be this way. He will amaze you with his “Ace Potential” but fall hard when he comes down.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Jul 22, 2008 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

injuries

Injuries definately affect performance. If he had done what he probably should and could have done which is just complain and go on the DL originally then they wouldn’t be there. But then people would be bitching because the guy can’t stay healthy so its a lose/lose

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jul 22, 2008 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I realize that

I’m not trying to manipulate the data…just giving the stats.

"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005

by Agreen07 on Jul 22, 2008 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I want to keep Padilla. He seems to not mind pitching here in Arlington. I have no problem looking at guys and taking out starts if there is reason to do so. Injuries are one and his last two starts before going on the DL can be taken off in my opinion.

I did the same with McCarthy from last year, although McCarthy had a few more starts to take away because of being injured so much, and his numbers were very impressive also. I think a rotation with McCarthy and Padilla fronting it with Millwood and Hurley could be very competitive next year.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jul 22, 2008 6:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

what are the numbers

of the contenders if you remove their worst 3 starts?

http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER

by gossamer on Jul 22, 2008 7:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

doesn't mean much

For this exercise to mean much of anything, you’d need to remove the three worst starts from every pitcher out there, and then compare Padilla along those lines. My hunch is that his ERA+ wouldn’t look a whole lot different than it does with those starts included.

"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner

by trza on Jul 22, 2008 8:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

He is clearly pitching much better than his ERA+ of 94, and if you eliminate those three games you get a pitcher with an ERA + of about 140

by oc on Jul 22, 2008 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

ERA+ is standardized based upon the ERAs of every other pitcher in the league. If each pitchers worst three games was tossed out, then the league ERA would go down. Relative to these other pitchers, Padilla’s lower ERA wouldn’t be that much lower.

"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner

by trza on Jul 23, 2008 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

keep padilla

right now he is the only starting pitcher we have throughout our system that you can count on to give you a good start.

Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future

by Steal Home on Jul 23, 2008 12:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

To be completely fair

What if you removed his three best starts?

He’s had three games in which he gave up no runs:
April 27th: 9IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K
May 7th: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K
July 20: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 0K

If those starts were thrown out his ERA would jump to 5.53 and we’d all be talking about how he sucks and should be cut or traded for a half eaten bag of seeds for Wash to chew on.

Revenge of the Birds

by cgolden on Jul 23, 2008 9:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

good gosh

do you throw out the starts where he was extra healthy? I mean the dude was INJURED!

by blueballlefty on Jul 23, 2008 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I tried to make this argument last season...

I tried to make this argument last season with Brandon McCarthy. The problem is that if you remove the three worst starts from pitchers, almost a third of the pitchers in the league becomes CY Young candidates. It’s a silly argument that holds no weight.

Rangeressary

"the poets have been mysteriously silent on the subject of cheese." - G.K. Chesterton

by rangeressary on Jul 23, 2008 9:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs