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Pitchers ERA at Arlington

I've been scratching my head and wondering why the Rangers just can't seem to get any decent pitching together.  Writers always say the ballpark is a hitters' paradise and pitchers' poison, kind of like the AL version of Coors Field.  Yet, Kenny Rogers managed to pitch there pretty effectively.  I was curious, so I looked at some numbers.  Here are the pitchers, grouped by pitching style, who have had success at Arlington and those that haven't. 

Power Pitchers:

Justin Verlander: 2-0, 0 ER in 14 IP

Scott Kazmir: 1-0, 2.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP in 14 IP

Roy Oswalt: 2-4, 3.94 ERA, 1.35 WHIP in 48 IP

Johan Santana: 3-2, 4.04 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 42 IP

CC Sabathia: 4-2, 4.71 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 36 IP

Felix Hernandez: 2-4, 6.82 ERA, 1.67 WHIP in 31 IP

Rich Harden: 1-1, 7.66 ERA, 2.01 WHIP in 22 IP

Sinkerball Pitchers:

Derek Lowe: 1-2, 3.48 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 20 IP

Fausto Carmona: 1-0, 0 ER, 3 H  in 8 IP

Chien Ming Wang: 1-0, 3 ER, 7 H in 6 IP

Roy Halladay: 4-3, 6.14 ERA, 1.44 WHIP in 63 IP

Tim Hudson: 2-5, 6.80 ERA, 1.78 WHIP in 47 IP

Brandon Webb: 0-1, 5 ER, 10 H in 5.2 IP

Others:

Kenny Rogers: 53-27, 3.99 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 742 IP

Vicente Padilla: 15-11, 4.19 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in 202 IP

Mike Mussina: 6-4, 3.94 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 75 IP

Mark Buehrle: 3-1, 3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 31 IP

Kevin Millwood: 19-12, 5.09 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in 235 IP

John Lackey: 4-5, 6.50 ERA, 1.72 WHIP in 72 IP

Looking at it, I find it hard to establish any recognizable pattern.  Halladay and Webb, who have two of the hardest sinkers in baseball, struggled (though Webb is a small sample size).  I figured sinkerballers would do well in Arlington.  Sabathia, Harden, and Felix Hernandez, who have great stuff, struggled, too.  Kenny Rogers, Mark Buehrle, and Mike Mussina, who have good command and lack overpowering stuff, all have had a lot of success.  Padilla has actually been pretty good. 

What does this all mean for the future of Rangers pitching?  What are your thoughts?

3 recs  |  Comment 26 comments

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Proof that that stat is overrated

Barry Zito: 11-1, 3.75 ERA

"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005

by Agreen07 on Jul 27, 2008 11:30 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well

There was a time Zito was actually good.

by sggut95 on Jul 27, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hard to recognize a pattern

Those are all pretty small samples, except for Rogers. Park factors on baseball reference seem pretty neutral the last 3 years, but the offensive home-road splits seem to tell a different story.

Part of me thinks that an era of generally poor Ranger pitching has just coincided with the move to the new ballpark, but it’s a chicken/egg situation. Is the pitching poor partly because of the ballpark? Or does the poor pitching and strength of the Ranger lineups for most of those years make the ballpark look like a culprit?

Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.

by t ball on Jul 27, 2008 11:52 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Personally...

...I think the last couple of years have been a bit of an aberration, which has resulted in the park factor being dampened more than it should be.

by Adam J. Morris on Jul 27, 2008 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder about that

I just don’t understand park effects very well. I think 3 years seems like a long aberration, but I’m sure it’s possible.

In the long run I think the org brass is on the right track getting mostly groundballers with good defense behind them.

Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.

by t ball on Jul 27, 2008 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And in 2009

all historical park effect data will be irrelevant, with Jerrah World nearing completion. At least I think so…I fail to see how such a massive structure nearby will not have an influence.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley

by Rodney on Jul 27, 2008 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Massive

will it have a tremendous gravity pull or something?

Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.

by t ball on Jul 28, 2008 3:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Park Effect=Jet Stream

at RBiA, right? I think the winds will be changed with that structure nearby.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley

by Rodney on Jul 28, 2008 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hadn't really thought too much about that

but I guess it is close enough to have a small effect.

Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.

by t ball on Jul 28, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you know

where to find park factors that show a possible inflation in lefty or righty hitters? I’m thinking that the Ballpark might just be continuing to be friendly to left hand hitters a lot more and righties just aren’t doing as much here anymore.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jul 27, 2008 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

according to Bill James Handbook

From 2005-2007 normalized park factors for RBiA:

LHB (avg) 100
LHB (hr) 124

RHB (avg) 103
RHB (hr) 99

Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.

by tricer on Jul 27, 2008 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Conscious effort by Ranger management

to focus on offense to fit the park.
All teams with field-bias do it, whether it’s power, speed, defense, or pitching…or a combo thereof, mostly to maximize the conditions in half their games.
This really hamstrings the Rangers in putting together a contending team. The current situation…having a potent and deep offense…gives them a short window to convince playoff-caliber pitchers to be the final pieces in a legitimate contender for a title run for a year or two…career ERA notwithstanding.

And I don’t care who wants to scoff at the obvious concept that Nolan Ryan and his reputation can really help get some of these pitchers to get over the mental hump that exists because of the Rangers past and park. Two solid veteran pitchers, added to the upcoming pitching prospects, make this team legit.

I Stole The Red Finger !

by Clueless on Jul 27, 2008 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

it just proves

it’s hard to figure out this pitching thing. There’s no denying Lackey and Halladay are great pitchers, but they’ve sucked here.

"I am not a never-nude" - Tobias Fünke

by jcAustin on Jul 27, 2008 12:23 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

What makes it such a hitters park?

Does 10 feet in dead center make that big a difference? Or is it something else I’m not grasping?

by sggut95 on Jul 27, 2008 1:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

the 10 feet can, yes...

As can the height of the wall (just ask Salty about his double that was less than a foot down the wall from being a HR in one of the deepest parts of the park) and the prevailing winds.

by Inkara1 on Jul 27, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I still say

we need a lefty strikeout pitcher to anchor the rotation, no matter what. Can you show me the top lefty strikeout pitchers, how they’ve done over the past few years in Arlington?

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 27, 2008 1:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Look above

You’ve got the three best lefty strikeout pitchers in the AL listed above in Kazmir, Johan and CC.

If you think that’s what we need above all else, then you need to be advocating CC Sabthia as a FA acquisition this off season. He’s the best lefty strikeout pitcher to hit the market since Arizona snagged the Big Unit from the Half Astros.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Jul 27, 2008 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

sad but true...

I had NO idea Sabathia was a lefty. wow. completely changes everything…even though there is NO way we shell out the dough necessary to land him. as of now, my free agent targets are in this order:

1. C.C. Sabathia – health and 2 years younger than Sheets, plus he’s a lefty
2. Ben Sheets – was my # 1
3. Oliver Perez – lefty strikeout specialist could be a hit or miss, youngest of these guys
4. Pedro Martinez – why not give it a shot?

Other than that, we’re sure as shit going to have to trade for one if not two upper level young pitchers in the next few days or offseason. I’d say we have $20 to 25 mil a year to spend on an elite level starter and a quality veteran bullpen arm. Hopefully we have a shot at one of the top two names listed above.

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 27, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I stay away from #3 and #4

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jul 27, 2008 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

well I'm personally a fan of giving

Oliver a shot here. depends on what his salary demands are. either way, I think he’s a fit in our park. but more importantly, the rest of that free agent list is pretty barren in terms of under-30 upper level pitching prospects. shows the value of developing your own stud pitching from within via the draft or trades. and thankfully, we’re on the right path, but a few years off from the really big crop

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 28, 2008 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's one problem with this analysis.

Every time one of those pitchers comes to Arlington, they have to face the Rangers. Historically, and this year in particular, that hasn’t been a very fun thing to do.

If anyone cares to a telling comparison might be splits on Home vs Rangers and Road vs Rangers… but then you’d still only have two parks in the equation, still imperfect.

by NoNameOnCard on Jul 27, 2008 2:04 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Last sentence clarification (might be hard to read for some)

If anyone cares to enhance this analysis, a telling comparison might be splits for Home vs Rangers and Road vs Rangers… but then you’d still only have two parks in the equation, still imperfect.

by NoNameOnCard on Jul 27, 2008 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is a valid point

But there are three Rangers listed as well. Neither of them could be described as having stellar home numbers. The best any of them can boast is halfway decent. And they weren’t facing the Rangers’ offense. Granted, none of them are in the same league as guys like Sabathia and Halliday.

by sggut95 on Jul 27, 2008 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that you're not the only one who is confused by all that stuff...

Guys like CC and Halladay especially. But I think we need more power pitchers who put the ball in play less and get more K/9. If you put the ball in play less, you have a less chance to get all these numbers.

That said, still doesn’t really explain anything of what you’re asking. Pretty crazy.

Ian Kinsler has finally earned the right to be the third of my co-favorite players.

by utlonghorn24 on Jul 27, 2008 4:08 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Okay, here's another way to look at it

To noname’s point, here’s a comparison of three great pitchers career numbers v the Rangers. I’m not a statistician, just a fan, so I’m not saying this proves anything, but it’s worth a discussion:

Sabathia
v Rangers overall: 7-3, 4.50 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in 80 IP
v Rangers in Arlington: 4-2, 4.71 ERA, 1.60 WHIP
Career on road: 59-32, 3.76 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Harden
v Rangers overall: 5-2, 4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP in 66 IP
v Rangers in Arlington: 1-1, 7.77 ERA, 2.01 WHIP
Career on road: 17-11, 3.93 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Halladay
v Rangers overall: 7-6, 5.34 ERA, 1.44 WHIP in 116 IP
v Rangers in Arlington: 4-3, 6.14 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Career on road: 55-36, 3.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

by sggut95 on Jul 27, 2008 4:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

And some analysis

What I get out of the numbers, and again, I’m no expert, is that the Rangers are clearly a tough team to pitch to, but it’s even harder to pitch against that lineup in Arlington. Naturally, most hitters have splits that indicate they do better at home, but some of that is explained by the ballpark. Coors Field, for example, creates some ridiculous home/road splits for the Rockies hitters.

To me, the fact that Halladay’s ERA jumps almost a full run when he faces the Rangers at Arlington vs in Toronto, is at least a little telling.

by sggut95 on Jul 27, 2008 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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