How much will it take?

by t ball on Jul 28, 2008 9:58 AM CDT

To sign CC Sabathia?

We've had a lot of talk this season about the Rangers' ability to add starting pitching through trade and free agency this offseason. They have the trade chips to get someone; they have the budget room to sign someone. There are two problems:

Teams are holding onto prospects -- especially pitching prospects -- much tighter than even a year ago, making acquisition through trade much more diffcult. We're seeing that this week. I don't think a Teixeira-like deal is even possible this week. Perhaps it will be a bit looser in the offseason but I wouldn't count on it. We should all be thankful that Daniels traded Teixeira for what he did, when he did.
All of the teams have money.

The Yankees have Abreu ($16m), Pettite ($16m), Mussina ($11m), Pavano ($11m), and I'm going to go out on a limb and say they don't exercise Giambi's $22m option. That's about $75m off the books, maybe low 60s if they resign Mussina or Pettite for a year. But most teams are flush with cash right now, and many have foregone signing expensive free agents this year in favor of younger players. It's scary to think that the Yankees could afford to sign both Sabathia and Teixeira and not increase their payroll above 2008.

The Mets lose Alou, Pedro, and Delgado. Do you think they'd rather save money and sign Ollie Perez or go for Sabathia?

Sabathia will want a contract bigger than Santana's several big market teams will be more than willing to give it to him. I think it will take something like 7 years, or maybe you can get 6 with an option if you take his mother hostage, and north of $160m to get it done. I see the the Yankees pushing hard, with the Mets, the LA teams, and maybe a new owner for the Cubs trying to make a big splash of revenge against the evil Brewers.

I heartily disagree with those that inexplicable say Hicks is cheap. But I'm not sure Hicks has the stomach to counter the offers that will come Sabathia's way this winter. The length of the contract scares me more than the dollars, and I really think it will take 7 years. I predict 7 years, no options, $170m. Hell, it might be more if he somehow leads the Brewers to the division title.

Post your predictions below, I'll revisit this when he signs in the winter and see who came the closest.

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Comments

I don't know

JD and Hicks need to keep their ears open to see what he demands. If they think he’s in the ballpark figure, they need to offer him a contract and set a deadline ASAP. I don’t want him to use us as a bargaining chip while having no intentions to sign. If you force the hand immediately, we might have a shot to get him since the large market teams would want some time to weigh out their options.

by Coolbean04 on Jul 28, 2008 10:03 AM CDT reply actions

Or

He does like Zito did and just wait it out and then the fans will pitch a fit saying we really didn’t want him and we were just putting on a front for fans.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jul 28, 2008 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions

please

the teams are not the ones with the power in the negotiations. There are 30 teams that all look the same but only 1 of that player.

by bushe on Jul 28, 2008 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions

6/145

w/ 2/52 option or some such rediculousness

by bushe on Jul 28, 2008 10:04 AM CDT reply actions

You're crazy

he won’t get that.

by Coolbean04 on Jul 28, 2008 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions

hopefully not

It is my philosophy on the elite FAs that you take what you think he should get by looking at the markets previously and multiply it by 1.25 to 1.5 depending on the year. TBall will let us know

by bushe on Jul 28, 2008 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions

5/110

Josh Hamilton is better than you.

by Longhorn on Jul 28, 2008 10:09 AM CDT reply actions

7/150

with an IP clause that would guarantee an 8th year at an additional $24M.

So 7/150 or 8/174 depending on his performance.

I predict the Dodgers offer him this deal after the Yankees play the role of the Rangers (driving up the price).

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by willamos2 on Jul 28, 2008 10:16 AM CDT reply actions

6/133

with a club option for the seventh year at about 18 and a buyout of about 5

Just a little less than Santana money. Maybe some deferred money games to claim a bigger contract on the back side.

Godwin's Law Version 2.0 (Rangers Edition)
"As a Ranger discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Danks, Volquez, or Young approaches one."

by LBBRangerFan on Jul 28, 2008 10:19 AM CDT reply actions

The Yankees will sign Sabathia

It just makes sense. He’s the best pitcher on the market, the Yankees need pitching, and he’s the type of guy who I see wanting to play in the big city. The Rangers could only sign him by overpaying considerably – Barry Zito money – which I am not interested in…

My hope is that Sheets wants to play closer to home and that the Rangers will give him a strong, good offer.

by JBImaknee on Jul 28, 2008 10:24 AM CDT reply actions

Disagree

I think the Dodgers have a much better shot than the Yanks. NL team, west coast team, he grew up in LA and you would think the Dodgers have enough cash.

by LiamP on Jul 28, 2008 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions

Just my hunch

but I bet that Sheets signs first. I think that CC’s agent will be looking to use Sheets contract as a baseline plus 20% or some such amount.

The benefit, even if the Rangers overpay to get Sheets to come to Texas it might really stretch some other team to sign CC. Of course if CC signs with the Yankee’s, then this point is mute.

Godwin's Law Version 2.0 (Rangers Edition)
"As a Ranger discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Danks, Volquez, or Young approaches one."

by LBBRangerFan on Jul 28, 2008 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions

I think anywhere from 5/90 to 6/120

Somewhere in that neighborhood. I don’t think he’ll get as much as Johan Santana got, but the bidding war that will undoubtably take place might get the price pretty close.

A Lonestar in California

by LSJ on Jul 28, 2008 10:30 AM CDT reply actions

He'll ask for what Johan got...

Teams will probably start offers around what Zito got, and they’ll settle somewhere in the middle…

I’ll say 6 years, $126 million

by N41D on Jul 28, 2008 10:38 AM CDT reply actions

6/130

and there will probably be an option for a 7th year at say 20 million. But from reading some of these comments, I seem to be inclined that most people would favor Sheets for the Rangers. It would be interesting to start a poll of who would you rather the Rangers get (assuming they cant get both)??

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by MayurP on Jul 28, 2008 11:15 AM CDT reply actions

Top FA SP signings

Signings that put the player in either the Top 10 among SPs in average annual value or the Top 25 among all players in total contract value, according to Cotts:

2008: Santana - 6/$137.5 guaranteed; 7/$157 possible
2008: Zambrano - 5/$91.5 guaranteed; 6/$110.8 possible
2008: Buerhle - 4/$56 guaranted
2008: Smoltz - 1/$14 guaranteed; 3/$39 possible
2008: Pettitte - 1/$16 guaranteed
2007: Zito - 7/$126 guaranteed; 8/$137 possible
2007: Oswalt - 5/$73 guaranteed; 6/$87 possible
2007: Peavy (extension beginnig 2010) - 3/$52 guaranteed; 4/$70 possible
2007: Schmidt - 3/$47 guaranteed
2007: Halliday (extension beginnig 2008) - 3/$40 guaranteed
2001: Hampton—8/$121 guaranteed; 9/$135 possible

Looking for inflation or other trends in this list. Salaries jumped through the roof in 2007 and 2008. The top FA signing in 2006 was Millwood (4/$48 guaranteed; 5/$60 possible). Top in 2005 was Pedro (4/$53 guaranteed). Something that stands out to me is that extensions/resignings produce good values (Peavy, Halliday, Zambrano, Buerhle; exception = Oswalt) while FA signings seem to produce bad contracts (Zito, Hampton, Schmidt).

If nothing else, this list should make you wary of backing up the truck for the types of numbers that have been posted in this thread to this point.

FWIW—I’ll go 6/$138. Because of age, I don’t think he’ll want team or vesting options on the back end. If he’s still pitching well enough for a club to pick up an option, he’ll want a new 2-3 year deal for his 34-36 years.

by robert_d_wilfong on Jul 28, 2008 11:19 AM CDT reply actions

I'm looking forward to the time

that August finds us talking about a realistic shot at the playoffs, rather than already looking at the shiny FA that will be available in the offseason.

Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.

by tricer on Jul 28, 2008 11:56 AM CDT reply actions

7yr/161mil

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Jul 28, 2008 12:02 PM CDT reply actions

Throw in Nolan Ryan's Autograph

and we’ll get him.

I Stole The Red Finger !

by Clueless on Jul 28, 2008 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm going to guess that Sabathia

wants to try to top Santana….I would hate to see JD offer 6/$137 and not get him though. Whatever the closest offer is, I imagine JD needs to go over it by about $10 mil to convince him to come to Texas.

"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005

by Agreen07 on Jul 28, 2008 12:04 PM CDT reply actions

10 mil more over 6-7 years

I doubt that would convince CC to come here

by LiamP on Jul 28, 2008 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Maybe 15

if he sees an offer for 6/137 and we offer 6/153, it’s a big difference. Each individual is different though, so we’ll see. I do think Texas is a more appealing place to play compared to three years ago. I think that has to do with the performance of our 4 all-stars this year, especially Josh Hamilton.

"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005

by Agreen07 on Jul 28, 2008 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions

* not only are they playing well

but it seems like they’re having fun doing it.

"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005

by Agreen07 on Jul 28, 2008 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions

My prediction

The Rangers’ offer comes in second behind whoever actually gets him then we hear about how they made a legit offer and did all that they could.

Revenge of the Birds

by cgolden on Jul 28, 2008 12:15 PM CDT reply actions

Big city/Money

i’ve heard him say he doesnt really need to pitch in a big Market, but the money will be the end all here. Its gonna get rediculous i think. 7/160+ is pretty easy for me to see, it may be conservative even. He’s the best pitcher to come on the open Market FA in a while and he’s pretty much as healthy w/o fault as any pitcher will ever be.

by blalock84 on Jul 28, 2008 2:26 PM CDT reply actions

better than Santana?

That was just last year…

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Jul 28, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions

yes

... he never really made it to the open market, on this open market, the price is gonna get outrageous

by blalock84 on Jul 28, 2008 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Exactly

CC is better now and has more value going forward (due to age) than Johan was when he was “on the market” last year.

Throw in the fact that Johan never hit FA, and I have to think CC’s gonna top that contract somewhere.

I think a lot of it is gonna come down to where he’ll play. If the whole West Coast Or Die aspect of his personality has been overblown, then I have a hard time imagining him not ending up in the Bronx.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Jul 28, 2008 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Hmm...I understand the point that he never really made it to the open market

But I don’t think CC is better now than Johan was last year.

Combined this year he has a 3.33 ERA (granted, I know he’s been dominant since going to the Brewers). Santana was at 3.33 last year overall.

Johan averaged 245 K’s and 221 IP over the last 4 years.

CC has avearged 170 K’s and 204 IP over the last 4 years.

I mean I guess you could argue that RIGHT NOW, CC is better. But, to me, Johan has a better track record.

The difference in the salaries will be because one hit the open market, and the other didn’t really. It won’t be because CC is necessarily better than Johan.

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Jul 29, 2008 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions

It's debatable I guess

First it’s odd that you’d pick 4 years as a benchmark for comparison. CC really broke out and became the pitcher he is today in ‘06. His ERA+ the two years prior to that were 106 and 104. His ERA+ the past two years have been 140 and 143.

After his incredibly shitty first month where his mechanics were out of whack, he’s been sensational this year.

But you’re right that it’s a lot closer than I made it out to be. I guess I’m just guilty of forgetting how freaking good Johan is/has been. (I must also admit I thought he was 30 his last season in Minny, not 28. Doesn’t he look older than that? I know I’m probably just being paranoid cause he’s from LA, but, damn I thought he looked older than that last time I saw him.)

Both have some question marks (the wear and tear on Johan’s shoulder, CC’s aversion to cardio), but they’re both utterly dominant pure aces.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Jul 30, 2008 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions

CC...

signs with the Dodgers for 7 yrs and 150 mil.

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by slc ranger on Jul 28, 2008 5:40 PM CDT reply actions

That sounds about right

The Dodgers are my favorite.

It would be the Yanks, but everytime I hear a rumor it’s accompanied by a mention of how much he wants to be on the West Coast and how he can’t stomach the thought of playing in the smelly, cold North East.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Jul 28, 2008 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions