A potential 2009 Ranger shortstop?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 7, 2008 10:15 AM CDT
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PrintSo, I'm reading Ken Rosenthal's column on the C.C. Sabathia trade, and I come across this item, which piques my interest:
Don't be surprised if the Brewers accelerate their transition this winter by trading shortstop J.J. Hardy and possibly first baseman Prince Fielder for multiple high-end prospects.
The demand for shortstops, in particular, is rising. Hardy, second in OPS only to the Marlins' Hanley Ramirez among NL shortstops, could bring a quality young starting pitcher — think Giants right-hander Matt Cain — if he is packaged with the right youngsters.
The Brewers then could replace Hardy with Class AA shortstop Alcides Escobar, whom they signed at age 16 as an international free agent out of Venezuela. Escobar already is considered a superior defender to Hardy, though he might struggle offensively for a time.
Okay...first of all, let's forget about the trading a quality young starting pitcher for Hardy part. Let's assume that Milwaukee can't pull that off.
But let's think about the rest of it...the Brew Crew dealing Hardy for multiple high-end prospects...
This could be a fit for Texas, I think.
There's a couple of underlying assumptions to this, of course. First of all, I think the Rangers are pretty well committed to moving Michael Young to third base this offseason. And I think they are committed to upgrading their shortstop defense. And I think they view Elvis Andrus as the shortstop of the future, although he's probably at least a year, and more likely two, away.
So...you've got a good young core of talent here right now. You've got a team that, at this point, you can think about contending in the next year or two, particularly if some of the young pitchers can come around. And you've got a lot of surplus minor league talent in certain areas that would allow you to make a move without mortgaging the future.
What this team needs for 2009 (aside from Brandon McCarthy and Eric Hurley stepping up and performing like they are capable of) is to fix the left side of the infield. Hank Blalock isn't coming back next year, Andrus isn't ready, Joaquin Arias is a cypher, Young isn't getting the job done defensively at shortstop, and Ramon Vazquez and Travis Metcalf aren't realistic solutions.
However...Young, as I've said before, profiles as a pretty solid defensive third baseman, given his skill set. And Hardy grades out very well defensively at shortstop...he's second in Dewan's +/- system this year, after being 10th last year (Young is 25th, 29th, and 25th the past three years), is middle of the pack in Pinto's PMR, and is above-average in Lichtman's UZR.
Oh...and blasphemous though this may seem, he's also probably a better hitter than Young right now. And he's under team control through 2010, which means he'll be a free agent about when you figure Andrus would be ready.
How do the teams match up, needs-wise? Brewers desperately need a solution at catcher. The Rangers have a lot of catching options that are major league ready. Would, say, Saltalamacchia or Ramirez, plus one of the A-ball arms -- say Neil Ramirez or Wilmer Font -- get a deal done? Or Teagarden and Matt Harrison or Tommy Hunter, plus a Zach Phillips or a Kennil Gomez? Wouldn't that seem to fit both team's needs?
That allows the Rangers to significantly upgrade their infield defense without really taking a hit offensively, and without mortgaging the future.
The more I think about this, the more I like it...
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Proof?
Of this:
First of all, I think the Rangers are pretty well committed to moving Michael Young to third base this offseason.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley
No proof, per say
Strong gut feeling, reading the tea leaves, etc.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 7, 2008 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Ok, how does the team
tell the “players’ vote” All-Star SS he is changing positions 3-4 months after the ASG?
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley
The same way the Nationals told Soriano he is moving positions after four straight all-star seasons.
This from Rob Neyer today:
Both of Texas’s middle infielders are All-Star reserves, and both Michael Young and Ian Kinsler probably deserve the honor. Kinsler’s leading the American League in hits and runs, and in a lousy year for American League shortstops, Young’s one of the two or three best of the bad lot. But as Baseball Time in Arlington points out, there are legitimate concerns about both Rangers’ fielding.
http://mvn.com/mlb-rangers/2008/07/04/deconstructing-ian-kinslers-defense-or-lack-thereof/
Per se
Counsellor (and I promise to never again be a spelling nazi) : )).
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Jul 7, 2008 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions
good
cause isn’t it usually spelled “counselor”
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
+1
"I’ll say something that doesn’t need context: anyone who is a Mariner’s fan is a douchebag." - FuturePants
by inactive lsb user on Jul 7, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Nope, look it up.
Although with two L’s is more commonly British.
Now, get back under your rock!
;)
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley
well
“usually spelled counselor,” as in if you’re not British, you usually don’t spell it like that. Recently, I have been made aware of all sorts of spellings that I didn’t realize were technically correct. Damn Websters recognizing anything stupid stuff.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Heh
Embarrassing. And not really used correctly, either.
by brettgardner on Jul 7, 2008 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
lol
"I’ll say something that doesn’t need context: anyone who is a Mariner’s fan is a douchebag." - FuturePants
by inactive lsb user on Jul 7, 2008 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions
haha
leave it to Mr. Gardner to get shit straightened out.
July 7 - Arod and Cynthia are headline National news today
Thank god we have Miles who gets us the SPORTS news a week before it becomes headline news.
The power of Miles - catch it!!!
well
if our goal is to start seriously competing for the playoffs is 2010, why not just wait and let Andrus take over then and keep the prospects for something else, like say…starting pitching?
"I really think JD is probably going to be one of the best things ever to happen to the Rangers." - Longhorn, May 27th, 2007
don't be ridiculous
"I really think JD is probably going to be one of the best things ever to happen to the Rangers." - Longhorn, May 27th, 2007
I agree
The Rangers do not lose because they can’t score runs. They lose because they can’t keep the other team from scoring. They need pitchers, not position players.
Having Hardy at SS
would help the Rangers prevent runs.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
having Andrus there next year would do the same
"I really think JD is probably going to be one of the best things ever to happen to the Rangers." - Longhorn, May 27th, 2007
how many?
10 over the courses of 162 games?
I would take Hardy if we had to give up minimal hitting prospects. Or Laird straight up. Cat. Byrd. Which won’t happen.
Pitching and maybe 3B should be our only targets in package/significant pro player deals we make.
"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."
by Walter Sobchak on Jul 7, 2008 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions
10 runs saved is about the same as...
...replacing a 5.00 ERA, 200 ip starting pitcher with a 200 ip starting pitcher with a 4.5 ERA. It’s significant, especially considering the type of staff that we have.
Of course, the likely response is that we don’t really even have any good bets to consistently post 200 innings and a 5 ERA.
I’d like to trade our excess for starting pitching, but this idea of using Hardy to slide MY over is kinda intriquing, and I believe it would improve the team more than most of the commenters here seem to think.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
I'll just quote THT here...
Any sufficiently advanced defense is indistinguishable from pitching?
Wouldn’t a major defensive upgrade at short help out with baserunners?
major defensive upgrade
the defensive metrics I look at say mike young is adequate. hardy might be better but not significantly so.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
+10000000000000000000000000
hey rangers fans, you know why this team has sucked for 30+ years, b/c their shortstop position didnt have enough range….
oh wait, no its pitching…
"Do they know who I am? Do they know my status? Thats what I thought."
-Miles 6/21/08
.501 or bust!
I could not agree with this more.
The Hardy trade doesn’t address the LONG-TERM issues we have, it addresses temporary issues we have while waiting for our future to arrive.
I think if we get the deal done for some lesser known guys without trading away a huge piece like a Salty, Teagarden, Harrison, et al, then we have a reason to make the deal. But if we’re giving up these pieces of trade bait for something that we could really do without, then I think we’re making a huge mistake.
Patience is something that all Rangers (myself still included) need desperately to learn. Michael Young will suffice at SS or 3B with someone else (a 1-year guy or whatever) filling that hole until we can get Andrus here.
Just wait it out people. Wait it out.
Ian Kinsler has finally earned the right to be the third of my co-favorite players.
the problem with waiting
is that Hambone and Kinsler aren’t going to stay in the prime of their careers forever. I think the offense has a couple of elite guys at their positions and it would be nice to start putting a competitive team around those 2 while they are still in the wheelhouse of their careers.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
Yep
our wagon is hitched to those two, currently.
Davis, Smoak, and whoever becomes DH should keep our offense dominant for the next 5-6 years. Better get some damn pitching here in time … this time …
"I’ll say something that doesn’t need context: anyone who is a Mariner’s fan is a douchebag." - FuturePants
by inactive lsb user on Jul 7, 2008 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah I understand both points there...
But isn’t the waiting thing what we’ve been promoting the whole time? Kinsler and Hamilton are both going to be very, very good for at least the next five years, barring injury of course, and I think that is plenty of time to get some good pitching in here. I see no reason why we’re not legitimate WS contenders in two years, if not for sure in three. Pitching development/acquisition should be our main focus, not filling a hole with a (in my opinion anyway) stupid trade that serves no end to the focus that we as an organization have right now.
But that’s me.
Ian Kinsler has finally earned the right to be the third of my co-favorite players.
I agree completely
time for tunnel vision.
"I’ll say something that doesn’t need context: anyone who is a Mariner’s fan is a douchebag." - FuturePants
by inactive lsb user on Jul 7, 2008 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions
To add more to your post...
I think that adding more competitive guys around those two are where our focus should be in trades with the extra guys we have to deal at some point. Laird/Salty/Teagarden, maybe a Harrison, Beavan/Main/Kiker, whoever we need to trade away as part of a big deal to get a big, big name in here for multiple years. A big name pitcher, not a position player, just to clarify. I feel like if we do that with our trade chips, we’re going to really set ourselves up to be that championship-caliber team like I mentioned below. What are your thoughts?
Ian Kinsler has finally earned the right to be the third of my co-favorite players.
Horrible Idea
With as streaky as Hardy is I would rather bring in a one year stop gap guy as a free agent and not trade any of our young pitching. If we really want to have sustained success we need to see the development all the way through, moving young arms for J.J. Hardy is not a solution.
If the Brewers medium of exchange
Is a quality starting pitcher, and the SS-A kids are too far away, what prospects would you assign, if you could? Sure Hardy would fit nicely in the scenario given, but doesn’t that train pull up short at the pitchers only station?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Jul 7, 2008 10:27 AM CDT reply actions
Did I read that right?
Are you suggesting Salty or Max, plus a young arm like Font or NeRa, for J.J. Hardy?
With the ridiculous glut of middle infield prospects in our farm system, I just cannot see the justification of using a bullet as valuable as Salty or Max, PLUS an intriguing young arm, for two years of J.J. Hardy. I read on yesterday’s minor league fanpost that a scout believed Andrus could be major league ready by next year’s all-star break. Granted, he will most likely struggle at first, but still. I think our young catchers have to be leveraged for pitching. I hate to be closed minded, but this team will NEVER SERIOUSLY COMPETE until our pitching is fixed.
yep
if you look at the makeup of this team from the players already here and in the minors, we’re pretty well set, once Andrus comes up at 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, C, CF, RF (hopefully Bradley resigned, and even if he isnt…), and we got some OF prospects coming on up as well…
If we can use some of our prospects to strengthen the bullpen and maybe get one young starter in here, this would be a very strong team…
"I really think JD is probably going to be one of the best things ever to happen to the Rangers." - Longhorn, May 27th, 2007
I don't like it, but I like it.
I’d rather they just get a stopgap at SS and leverage their catcher situation for an upgrade to the rotation if possible. It could work, though, if they manage to sign a Sabathia or Sheets first. I like it from a standpoint of making the infield better. It makes you better at bat and in the field on the left side.
There are risks though in signing a free agent pitcher, in dollars, the number of years it would take to close the deal, declining skills, and health concerns…
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
Seriously
What is the big deal with Young at SS. Is he that terrible? This is stupid, we have an all star SS who can get by there for the next 2-3 years and we have a top prospect who is 2-3 years away.
Hey but I have a GOOD idea, How about put that package together for a PITCHER
hhmm....
Just because the Rangers want Michael Young to move to 3B, doesn’t mean he will.
Him accepting moving to 3B will mean he is accepting that he is not good enough…....and MY will never admit that.
"GO RANGERS!!!" - bspate
Depends
If he moves for an inevitable Andrus promotion to the SS job, he’ll play it out as doing it for the team. Maybe not so gracefully done for an acquisition, but of course I don’t know, you don’t know, and Michael Young doesn’t know until confronted by the situation. He did well PR and esteem wise moving from 2B to allow Soriano’s arrival smoothly, and I’d guess he’ll do likewise gracefully when it’s time to shift to 3B.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Jul 7, 2008 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah but
the soriano situation was a little different. The Rangers were saying we think that you are a good enough 2B to be a good SS. It was a compliment. The move from SS to 3B can be construed as a slight. Basically, we dont think you are good enough to play SS anymore so please move to 3B.
by booyahcaveman on Jul 7, 2008 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions
with MY's contract
they can tell him to do whatever the hell they want. Not like he’ll refuse. He’ll just have his feelings hurt.
W: "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
by hubcityraider on Jul 7, 2008 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
He'll move to 3B
if the Rangers have as much backbone as Washington did with Soriano.
"And I stopped beating my wife just a couple of weeks ago." -John McCain
Not a bad idea
but if they are looking for a Matt Cain, I really think the closest we have is Feliz and no way that trade is getting made. Maybe teagarden, harrison and a low A arm. I would probably do that.
Hmn...
That allows the Rangers to significantly upgrade their infield defense without really taking a hit offensively, and without mortgaging the future.
Umm… if you’re trading them one of our top young catchers plus an arm for a guy you don’t plan on having here past 2010… yeah, that is kind of mortgaging your future just a little bit.
This is an intersting idea, but I’m just not willing to give up any high-quality young players for a 2-year rental shortstop. Maybe if they wanted to swap some major league players, like Maybe Millwood + Laird for Hardy though.
What I’m really having trouble with though, is why the Brewers would do this. What exactly are they doing as an organization, anyway? They’re about to trade off their #1 prospect for CC Sabathia, yet they’re willing to give up their starting shortstop? Something doesn’t add up there.
"My keyboard is a Yankees fan" - Whipsmart
don't ever question Doug Melvin!
"I really think JD is probably going to be one of the best things ever to happen to the Rangers." - Longhorn, May 27th, 2007
It's called, all in
From what I’ve read, they have no intention of re-signing either CC or Sheets. As Adam pointed out, they will also be looking to move Fielder after this season.
Melvin obviously believes he has a 1-year window of opportunity and he’s moving like hell to maximize the potential to win this year, knowing that this off-season they will undergo a Marlins-like fire sale, regardless of this season’s outcome.
by robert_d_wilfong on Jul 7, 2008 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
how frustrating
that must be for Brewers fans. They finally have a team put together that has plenty of good pitching and even includes a lot of youth. But they just can’t afford to keep em.
W: "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
by hubcityraider on Jul 7, 2008 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, my heart bleeds for them
I think they have a real legit chance at a World Series berth this year. I’d gladly take that.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
Pass.
I think you sign a stopgap until Andrus is ready. While I understand Hardy’s allure, it just doesn’t make sense to me to trade big pieces of the farm system to fill a position that is essentially already filled. Or, at worst, you keep Young at SS and a Vazquez/Metcalf platoon at 3B. I just don’t think trading for a shortstop is the move.
"Boy, that is a gutless, 6-foot-7, .200-hitting formerly good player. What a joke." -Tom Grieve RE: Richie Sexson
Hey Adam
Can you share the source for your defensive metrics? I’ve never found active +/- available online.
It is from
http://www.billjamesonline.net
I went ahead and subscribed. $3 per month.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 7, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Hardy's value as he departs in 2010
Unspoken in your stop-gap formula is what can be acquired for Hardy when he exits the season. Are you assuming getting back similar value to Salty/NeRa in a 2010 trade of Hardy?
If the team is in contention in 2010
do you trade your starting SS and promote a rookie?
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
I think it depends
Ideally, you figure you keep him for two years, contend those two years, let him walk and collect the draft picks after 2010, and roll with Andrus for 2011.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 7, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
young will move to 3b
if he’s approached about it in the right way. Even Ripken moved to 3B for the good of his team. It’s not like Texas is asking him to do something unheard of.
I’ll pass on Hardy…I’d rather sign a similar player as a free agent without giving up any prospects.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
a similar player signed as a FA
would probably require a 3-4 year contract, at a minimum. Then that player would be blocking Andrus, if he continues to develop.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
here
David Eckstein – 1 year deal (93 OPS+ in 2007)
Hardy had a 100 OPS+ in 2007.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
why even do that?
what’s wrong with vasquez?
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
i agree...
i’m just saying if the organization chooses to bring in a SS from the outside – I’d much rather sign an Eckstein than acquire Hardy at the cost of Salty or Max (plus a low-A pitcher).
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
so you're going to move MY off SS for David Eckstein?
good luck w/ that.
Any decent SS that can field and hit well enough to displace the FOTF is going to require a multi-year FA deal.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
he's not better than hardy
he’s better than eckstein
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
so far this year
he is.
"Hey hows the playoff push coming? How about adding the AL MVP (Milton Bradley) to your lineup, would that help? Oh, your top 3 prospects? Sure, don't mind if I do." -Future Jon Daniels quote (developed by SaltyGoesYard)
And you expect that to continue long term?
He’s .200 points above his career OPS right now. He might somehow keep doing that the rest of this season, but I certainly wouldn’t count on it past that. Seems like an ideal sell high candidate.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
Hardy is 26, under team control
until 2010, when he’ll be 28. Eckstein is 33 and hasn’t had an OPS over 93 since 2005.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
No.
I don’t even get the thought process, overpaying for something overpriced and underneeded.
In the lunchroom, you’d be trying to acquire stale Twinkies with a bag of raisins, when they’re asking turkey sandwich from Whole Foods.
Our catching is all underperforming anyway, so we should be sitting on it and meditating for positive vibes.
Also, Adam: cipher. (Great word!)
Go Strangers.
Not buying at that price.
I think it’s a better option than most, if the goal is to transition MY next year. I’m not sure the Rangers need to do that next year, but it probably wouldn’t hurt. Milwaukee could use a 3B as well. Hardy for Blalock+mid-level prospect?
If CC and Sheets walk after this year, the Brewers have a lot of picks, but need pitching. So, Blalock+Harrison for Hardy? I feel like Harrison might be a little better than a mid-level prospect, though.
Go Rangers!
Think about that
If they want to give up Hardy, do you really think they want Blalock?
by robert_d_wilfong on Jul 7, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Too much
I’m OK with trading away a catcher and maybe a low A pitcher but not a good prospect. To me, if the Rangers can fill a hole and the Brewers can fill a hole, that should be enough especially since the Brewers will have their player longer.
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
Talk about burying the lead
Let’s look at the package to get him.
I’d much rather be in the hunt for him, than JJ Hardy.
"So you think the Celtics will beat Detroit? Hell will freeze over before that happens, mark my words." miles 5/20/08
by badradiorules on Jul 7, 2008 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Young to 3B
Why in the wide world of sports would we want to move a guy to 3B who (1) has an OPs of .762, (2) is on a downhill slide offensively, and (3) has never played 3B and might be a poor defensive 3B? Young doesn’t have the stick for 3B and might not have the range/reactions for it either. His only value is as a SS. If the Rangers decide he isn’t good enough to play SS, he should be traded or benched. Putting him at 3B because he has a ridiculous contract is suicide.
I would leave him at SS and pray that one of the dumber GMs in the league decides he needs an All-Star SS. Otherwise, you play him until his bat and/or glove deteriorates to the point that another option is better, at which time you bench him.
I’d rather see us run Blalock or Davis out there at 3B next season than spend prospects on Hardy so that we can move Young to a position for which he is not suited.
Let’s package some prospects together for a stud pitcher or COF bat.
--Brian
In a perfect world
maybe this works out. The problem is that Hardy is too good a trade chip for the Brewers to settle on Teagarden+Poveda or something like that. Lots of teams need a good SS (just look at LSJ’s post about the Dodgers possibly offering someone like Kemp for a SS over there), and will trade better players than we’ll put out there. Sure we may match up with the BrewCrew, but someone else will offer to overpay for Hardy, and I don’t think we should try to outbid them.
my problem
seems like buying high, or paying a high price for a premium player. This is something a team who doesn’t have a future SS in their organization would do. If you think Andrus is anything, than you don’t waste prospects going after essentially a stopgap SS.
also:
Okay…first of all, let’s forget about the trading a quality young starting pitcher for Hardy part.
That’s a big part to forget about. I think the only reason they even consider trading someone like Hardy is because they think they can get a quality SP prospect in return. I realize they have Escobar in the pipeline but it seems to me that they would much rather wait and see if their SS prospect pans out before they deal someone like Hardy – unless they got bowled over with SP’s. This assumption that the Brewers would just settle for the Rangers offer seems a bit strange.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
just wondering
how do Escobar and Andrus compare as prospects?
Is Escobar more advanced? more highly thought of?
Seems strange that the Brewers would trade away a starting SS to clear room for their young stud, while we would trade away assets that would block our young stud – unless Escobar is regarded as a much better, or much more advanced, prospect.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
He is in AA, but 2 years older
He didn’t crack the BA 100, but he has been on their hot sheet a lot this year. 808 OPS, great glove.
Don't knock masturbation, it's sex with someone I love .
by Brian Thomas on Jul 7, 2008 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions
escobar
Arias before he got hurt?
"I really think JD is probably going to be one of the best things ever to happen to the Rangers." - Longhorn, May 27th, 2007
Yeah, my gut
says he’s better than Arias, too, but not by much. Part of me thinks it’s just my distaste and boredom with Arias, though.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
Ideally
I’d like the top prospects that we trade to bring back pitching, especially pitching that we can control long-term, however this isn’t a bad idea either.
10 games ago
Hardy was hitting .259, but he’s gone 22 for his last 43.
That will fall back down soon and I’m sure he’ll end up abobut where he did last year 277/323/463.
I don’t think he’s a better hitter than Young, more power though…
www.mavsmoneyball.com
by Wes Cox on Jul 7, 2008 11:55 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Elvis
Prediction: he’s the starting shortstop next year. At the beginning of the year.
If he keeps up his pace since coming off the DL, he’ll probably see AAA before year’s end. If nothing else, he’ll have shot down a lot of doubters.
And this guy is ML-ready defensively, so the story goes…
Go Strangers.
+1
This last month or so has been nice for Elvis but lets not get too carried away just yet. Im thinking he will move up to OKC probably in a month which will give him about 6 weeks of playing time in AAA. Next year he will start off in OKC and I think the earliest we will hear rumblings about him getting promoted will be around June 1. realistically probably not until next ASB or trade deadline. Ideally I think the Rangers would like to keep him down until next September but I think he will be knocking on the door sooner than that.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Rushing the kid
He’s already plenty rushed. Seems nobody minds, least of all the player.
I think the org will continue rushing him.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Jul 7, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Not really
he has spent a full year in Low A, a full year in High A, and now this full year in AA. He just started sooooooooo young that he is still young but has had plenty of seasoning in the minors
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
it seems like people are vastly underrating Hardy if they think that Salty plus Harrison is overpaying. We have a surplus of catching, and we are trading that to breakdown a defensive liability. Harrison projects to be a 3 at best. This would upgrade the current roster and not hurt the team longterm. I bet it takes more than that to get Hardy. If you made that trade, then added a Sheets/Sabathia, we quickly look like very legitimate contenders with a very strong system to sustain us longterm.
Why not just leave Young at SS next year?
Hopefully Blalok will grow some balls and man third next year. If that happens then you dont need a stop gap like Hardy and Young won’t have to be moved until Elvis is ready.
Makes sense AJM so get these silly trade thoughts out your head!
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
Because he's not a good defensive shortstop
Between him and Blalock, they are probably an aggregate 30 to 40 runs below average defensively.
If you are going to have a groundball, pitch-to-contact staff, you need good defensive infielders.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 7, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions
who are you referring to...
...when you say groundball, pitch-to-contact staff?
Harrison? Feldman? Mendoza?
by oc on Jul 7, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Everybody not named
Padilla / McCarthy. Those are the only two power arms, in the traditional sense, no?
PLEASE START THAT REHAB, BGR!!
"I’ll say something that doesn’t need context: anyone who is a Mariner’s fan is a douchebag." - FuturePants
by inactive lsb user on Jul 7, 2008 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions
"Because he's not a good defensive shortstop"
That is incorrect. Young is not a shortstop, perod. He just plays there.
"My keyboard is a Yankees fan" - Whipsmart
by LSJ on Jul 8, 2008 4:48 AM CDT up reply actions
Lugo
This was linked in the trade deadline thread.
Telling article, if true. Boston was heavily in on Saltalamacchia before the Teixeira deal.
And they’re sick of Lugo.
If they eat a lot of his salary, do you send them Bradley, Saltalamacchia, and say Lemon and any arm below AA (or Padilla) for Bucholz, Lugo +/- a couple other prospects?
Do they really slam the phone down?
Go Strangers.
Lugo
pass.
Bradley, Salty, and Kiker for Buchholz?
"I’ll say something that doesn’t need context: anyone who is a Mariner’s fan is a douchebag." - FuturePants
by inactive lsb user on Jul 7, 2008 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Michael
won’t move to third in the middle of the season.
"Hey hows the playoff push coming? How about adding the AL MVP (Milton Bradley) to your lineup, would that help? Oh, your top 3 prospects? Sure, don't mind if I do." -Future Jon Daniels quote (developed by SaltyGoesYard)
i dont want lugo
he is a wife beater.
"Do they know who I am? Do they know my status? Thats what I thought."
-Miles 6/21/08
.501 or bust!
What makes this team a contender in two years?
It’s a long ways from a 500 team to a contender. The rotation is in a mess, how is it going to be better in two years? If this team is no more then a 500 team in 2010, has Daniels failed? I assume Millwood and Padilla may both be gone, maybe they find some other free agent? That’s a big if for this club?
growth
In two years guys like Hurley, Harrison, Feldman, McCarthy, and Hunter will all be just entering the primes of their careers and all will have at least one if not more years of experience in the big leagues. Our lineup of Kinsler, Hammy, Davis, Salty, Max, and Smoak will all be or already in the primes of their careers with experience in the bigs already. Compliment that with veterand like Millwood and Padilla and MY and mix in some promising rookies like Andrus, Kiker, and possibly Feliz and it looks on paper like a potent array of players. Alot can happen between now and then with injuries and player regression but one thing that looks great is most of those guys are under control for at least the next 3 years. That means they aren’t going anywhere unless we decide to move them. We don’t have to look and say “What if” talking about them resigning or leaving. They aren’t going anywhere.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
In two
years, Smoak will be in his prime of his career? wrong.
Feldman entering prime? He is a journeymen at that point if he is lucky.
Mccarthy….. You really counting on this?
Millwood and Padilla… Both are gone in two years.
"I'm thinking of starting Quite Frankly in my garage, would you be my first guest?"
primes
Smoak will be what 24? Alright he will be entering the prime of his career. Feldman will be 27 right in the middle of his prime and with what hes shown this year even if all he is is a #5 starter I will take him as a #5 at 27 years old.
Yeah i am counting on McCarthy. He’ll be 26-27 and in his prime which should be top of the rotation material.
And I think one of Millwood/Padilla will still be around. You can’t win with strictly young guys in the rotation. You need that vet who even if hes your #4 guy can be there for the young guys to look to.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Well that
team doesn’t really entice me…
Brandon Mccarthy has yet to show me he can stay healthy. What is he at best? A 3?
Feldman is a 5
Millwood/Padilla will be a 3 at best at that point, closer to a four…
Hurley is a 2.
The point is that rotation isn’t that much better than it has been, and you can’t win without pitching.
If we want to compete, we need a legit number 1.
Sabathia in the off season?
You can’t just assume Feliz will be a number 1, I’m not convinced he is a starter.
"I'm thinking of starting Quite Frankly in my garage, would you be my first guest?"
that team
I think that team will be alot like the teams of the late 90s. Pitchers who just kept us in games, nothing special, and an offense that absolutely dominated. I know pitching is what wins and all that crap but if a rotation of mostly mid 20s guys can just contain the other team I am confident that offense will win more games than lose. Like I said originally things can change and we can add guys but a key part is none of those guys will be leaving unless we decide they do. They are all under our control for awhile so unless we decide they go they stay.
And I do think Feliz will be a 1. A downright dominant 1
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
We've already had reports
that they are, but I agree with many of your points above. We cannot count on McCarthy, he’s a bonus if he gets healthy. Feldman may be a #4, but it’s not safe to count on it.
But with Feliz we can’t assume that he’ll be an ace the day he steps into the rotation. He’ll have to grow into that role even if he pans out like we hope. In two years Feliz may be part of the rotation, but not as the #1 starter.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
McCarthy as top of the rotation material
Dustin Nippert has a better chance to top a ML rotation.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
In my opinion
Dustin Nippert has a much better chance to become a dependable ML starter than Brandon McCarthy. He also has a much better chance to become someone that pitches towards the top of a good rotation. His stuff is easily better than McCarthy.
Call me crazy.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
smoak
may be in his physical prime by then, but i dont know if its reasonable to project he’ll be in his baseball prime that soon. unless they get to the bigs at a late age (like hamilton or ryan howard for instance), most guys hit their peak after around 3-4 years of major league service time. I think smoak could be in the majors 2 years from now but not quite in his prime. even teixera, a reasonable approximate model for how smoak might develop didnt reach his full potential till his third year, though ill gladly take tex’s 04 numbers any year for smoak!
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 7, 2008 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
why dont we just keep moving him over
and by 2012 he’ll be third base coach.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 7, 2008 3:11 PM CDT reply actions
Maybe I am wrong here...
But why is everyone jumping the gun on Ramon Vasquez? He is hiiting well at the big leage level, and has played very well and made good throws from 3B. He was even mentioned in an article i read this morning (either espn or mlb.com, can’t remember) about being deserving of the All-Star Game.
I think that was tongue in cheek
It was actually degrading the selection of Crede and although Vasquez has played well this year he is what he is. A 30 year old journeyman who has found a niche here and is playing consistantly and producing. If you want to start writing his name into the lineup card for next year go ahead but I don’t think that would be a wise thing to do
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Vasquez
is not going to keep that up. This is a fluke, career year from a player who’s career OPS is well below .700. He’s hitting .200 points above his career OPS. He didn’t suddenly figure it all out at 31.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
Meh...
I don’t trade any of our major prospects for a temporary fill in at SS for a year or two.
If the Brewers want a C that’s fine. I’d say OMFT plus a couple of other low end prospects would be as high as I go here. I wouldn’t deal Salty, MaxRam, TT, or any pitching prospects for a SS right now. I know MY sucks defensively, but I still don’t see it as a huge position of need with Andrus coming up. I’d rather leave MY there ‘til 2010 and just suffer through another year.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
+1
Absolutely correct.
Ian Kinsler has finally earned the right to be the third of my co-favorite players.
FWIW
MY:
2008 Win Shares – Offensive 6.7, Defensive 3.5, WSAB 4
Hardy:
2008 Win Shares – Offensive 2.8, Defensive 3.0, WSAB 1
"So you think the Celtics will beat Detroit? Hell will freeze over before that happens, mark my words." miles 5/20/08
Adam,
....this was a bit of a reach. First of all, who do you propose us giving if we get Hardy? If its Max/Hurley/Davis, I’ll press my luck. @nd, Throwing out some BS Trade proposal???? Lets leave that to mlbtraderumors and Fanposts….
Stupid.
First off, it’s not a ridiculous proposal. Second, he doesn’t need to satisfy “corbsclinton”’s strict journalistic standards. You obviously come here in large part because you like what he contributes.
i don't come here because i like what he contributes.
i come here because i like what i contribute.
by oc on Jul 7, 2008 11:50 PM CDT up reply actions
oc
too bad you couldnt have contributed a few more fake emails, then instead of wasting a little bit of time, I could have wasted a little more time and gotten kinsler elected. Penalty box for you… now read the sig, read it.
I'm sorry my parents never had me sarcamsized.
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