Deadline and OVERVALUE
The last three weeks I have posted the Buyers or Sellers discussions. I think we are all getting a little tired of wanting to know if the Rangers should be buyers or sellers or both or hold or..........
It got me to thinking how much does overvalue play in making deadline (or offseason) deals. It seems that most of us that read Lone Star Ball seem to overvalue the Rangers prospects. For example we think---JMJ, Harrison and Vallejo could possibly bring back David Price or Ben Sheets. Now I am going a little overboard here, but:
1. Do we as Ranger fans overvalue our prospects too much?
2. Do we under value other teams players?
3. What happens at the deadline and does overvalue play a part in it?
Let's discuss
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Comments
Well.....
1. Ya, i think we do, but at the same time, its hard not to get excited with some of these guys that we got in there.
2. I highly doubt that; honestly, I think its more of us overvaluing our prospects than under valuing other players.
3. In my opinion, yes it does. I guess the main example would be the Yankees last year with Hughes and Kennedy and not being able to get a trade.
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by hinduplaya on Jul 9, 2008 10:17 AM CDT 0 recs
For the answers to #1 and #2, browse other threads with trade speculation
1. Very much so.
2. Even more so.
by LiamP on Jul 9, 2008 10:21 AM CDT 0 recs
yes
i think its natural for a team’s fans to overvalue organazational prospect’s especially if the team’s success is highly dependent on them (i.e. when youre in rebuilding mode). i dont think we necessarily undervalue other team’s players, except in the sense that we value them less favorably comapred to our own.
if anything, id say the rangers have had a recent history of undervaluing our own prospects in trades, moslty for players who were either busts or ended up being rather mediocre, temporary solutions.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jul 9, 2008 10:23 AM CDT 0 recs
No way in hell the Rays would take that package in exchange for Price.
by BudLight on Jul 9, 2008 10:29 AM CDT 0 recs
+1
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by SarasotaRanger on
Jul 9, 2008 11:28 AM CDT
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Really?
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by Brian Thomas on
Jul 9, 2008 4:19 PM CDT
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Some of each
There is a tendency to critique players on either their best or worst performances, when their “component” value to a team is something in between. Heh, it doesn’t make one a better analyst to tend on either the upper or lower boundary of “value”. Value is the result of agreement between buyer and seller, thus fuel for fan disagreement with their own GM at times (or joyful shock as in the case of the Teixeira return).
I’d just hope it’s kept in mind that the objective in team building is overall competence, and consequent winning, not individual and separate fantasizing over trades or signing deals.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Jul 9, 2008 10:34 AM CDT 0 recs
Most fans of teams
overvalue their prospects and undervalue others prospects. If you don’t believe that, try to put together a trade proposal with fans of any other boards.
However, since I don’t imagine we will be trading away prospects, I don’t imagine its that big of a deal.
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by DJCahill on Jul 9, 2008 10:36 AM CDT 0 recs
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by Chase Irwin on
Jul 9, 2008 11:26 AM CDT
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I liked the suggestion of Bowden for MaxRam straight up.
Haven’t really seen that before, but it certainly deserves some thought.
Ian Kinsler has finally earned the right to be the third of my co-favorite players.
by utlonghorn24 on
Jul 9, 2008 12:28 PM CDT
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Bowden
His numbers have been pretty eye-popping, but having read Law’s appraisal I’ve become severely turned off that prospect.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on
Jul 9, 2008 12:56 PM CDT
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nice work chase
I keep forgetting that Im logged into other boards as well..
by corbsclinton on
Jul 9, 2008 1:35 PM CDT
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They actually sounded pretty reasonable
I was surprised.
Bowden for Maximiliano is pretty level headed, imo. In fact I’m pretty sure I’d do that deal right now.
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by thedirkatron on
Jul 9, 2008 2:04 PM CDT
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But
do you think Boston does? I’m sure they like Max’s bat, but I’d think they would want someone they’d be more sure of as sticking at catcher to replace Varitek.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on
Jul 9, 2008 4:08 PM CDT
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I was surprised to read that many/most of them were higher on Lester than Buch
I was not at all surprised when they started overvaluing Bowden and Masterson…
Don't knock masturbation, it's sex with someone I love .
by Brian Thomas on
Jul 9, 2008 4:26 PM CDT
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They're just like folks here
What have you done for me lately trumps the big picture. If Buchholz has a few good starts for the big league team the wind will blow in the other direction again.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
by t ball on
Jul 9, 2008 4:54 PM CDT
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The internet
changed the game. The fanbases have more exposure to the farm’s prospects and I think we follow it more closely. I remembered back in the day when prospects just appeared in the bigs I knew nothing about. With BA, BP, MILB.com, and newsletters, we know their names sometimes years before their arrival or eventual burnout. I think fans as a whole, naturally overvalue guys they’ve been reading box scores on since they got drafted.
That said, I think the GMs have to be more aware than ever that each trade will be scrupulously debated and tracked from even outside from their fanbase. See Harden to Cubs. I also think the Max/Lofton trade is a good example. 10 years ago, I think many would have said, “Sweet, we picked up Kenny straight up for some AAer?” But, I remember folks coming over from the indian’s board saying there were quite a few that were pissed about that move.
So, I think with easier access and revamped scouting, baseball has gotten better at sizing up what they have. Every guy has a price tag. Its based on his value to the franchise at that point. Being over-valued? Thats completely relative to the team that owns the rights and what he means to the franchise. He may have less value in our system but who are we to say that a team that has his rights and plays for them everyday doesn’t know what they are talking about?
by corbsclinton on Jul 9, 2008 11:15 AM CDT 0 recs
top 4 system
i dont think its just us valuing our prospects, every team values our prospects, for once we actually have some of the best in baseball. the Drays overvalued their prospects for years, and it looks like it could build them a dynasty. when you arent that close to competing for a WS or even a pennant and you have a top system in baseball, why on earth would you move young hgihly prized talent for other players who are known quantities when you are so far away from winning it all.
just about the stupidest thing the rangers could do at this moment is to trade a lump of prospects for any1 player at all. there are simply too many holes on the 25 man to compete for any sort of title this year or next year. maybe the following year it will all start to come together. till then you dont fill holes on a team that isnt competitive.
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-Miles 6/21/08
.501 or bust!
by Jayslick on Jul 9, 2008 11:51 AM CDT 0 recs
-1
unless that trade of a lump of prospects is for Buchholz
by 8legs2fangs on
Jul 9, 2008 12:11 PM CDT
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-1 to you.
I think that’s a deal to be made for next season’s deadline at the earliest. We sell this year (IMO) and get more beef to the system and at the big league level in good, young players. Then next year, when we have a definite surplus and are much closer to being a playoff/WS-contending team, we then make a deal like that to fill out the rest of the puzzle.
Ian Kinsler has finally earned the right to be the third of my co-favorite players.
by utlonghorn24 on
Jul 9, 2008 12:30 PM CDT
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nah
if you can get Bucholz now and control him…you do it. Next year his value will probably be too high to acquire.
by 8legs2fangs on
Jul 9, 2008 7:56 PM CDT
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Overvalue
I don’t think most fans know how to evaluate talent one way or the other. Look at Mr. Edinson Volquez, for example. It wasn’t long ago that a lot of people here thought he wouldn’t amount to much, and they actually saw him pitch. For all these guys we haven’t seen play we really have no idea. It’s very hard to say what a player’s worth by looking at the raw numbers.
All we see are names bandied about. Line scores flying through the internets. Now and then a scouting report. What’s important is a player’s talent: his swing or the movement, velocity, and control of his pitches. And you can’t tell a lot about that when you’re reading box scores because we’re thinking about what they might be able to do against MLB players and these numbers are being put up against vastly inferior competition. To get a good idea about what a player’s capabilities are, you have to watch him over a period of time. In person.
by Black Francis on Jul 9, 2008 5:24 PM CDT 0 recs









