With the promotion of Tommy Hunter to the major league roster and the passage of the 2008 trade deadline, the Rangers’ 40 man roster currently includes 44 players.  Brandon McCarthy, John Rheinecker, Jason Jennings, and one other player (AJ Murray perhaps?) are on the 60-day dl.  As many on this board have pointed out, Tommy Hunter’s promotion will mean that the Rangers will be able to protect one less player from the rule 5 draft, sign one fewer free agent, or keep one more player from testing the free agent market during the coming offseason.  With an eye toward understanding what is likely to transpire before and during the winter meetings this year, below is the complete list of players on the Rangers 40 man roster categorized based upon whom I believe to be locks for the off-season roster, necessary to fill out the active roster, and potentially expendable.

The Locks

Pitchers

(1)  Joaquin Benoit (signed through 2009)

(2)  Thomas Diamond (6 years)

(3)  Scott Feldman (4 years)

(4)  Frank Francisco (2 years)

(5)  Matt Harrison (6 years)

(6)  Eric Hurley (6 years)

(7)  Warner Madrigal (6 years)

(8)  Brandon McCarthy (3 years?)

(9)  Luis Mendoza (5 years?)

(10) Kevin Millwood (signed through 2010)

(11) Vicente Padilla (signed through 2009, team option 2010)

(12) Josh Rupe (4 years?)

(13) C.J. Wilson (3 years)

(14) Tommy Hunter (6 years)

Catchers

(15) Gerald Laird (2 years)

(16) Max Ramirez (6 years)

(17) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (5 years)

(18) Taylor Teagarden (6 years)

Infielders

(19) Chris Davis (6 years)

(20) German Duran (6 years)

(21) Ian Kinsler (signed through 2013)

(22) Michael Young (signed through 2013)

Outfielders

(23) Brandon Boggs (6 years)

(24) Julio Borbon (6 years)

(25) Josh Hamilton (4 years)

(26) David Murphy (5 years?)

Needed to Complete the Active Roster

(27) Milton Bradley (FA) – DH

(28) Hank Blalock (team option) – 3rd baseman

(29) Eddie Guardado (FA) - bullpen lefty

(30) Jamey Wright (FA) – reliable middle reliever

(31) Marlon Byrd (FA) – Fifth outfielder

Potentially Expendable

(32) Kason Gabbard (5 years)

(33) A.J. Murray (6 years)

(34) Doug Mathis (6 years)

(35) Dustin Nippert (5 years?)

(36) Ramon Vazquez (FA)

(37) Frank Catalanotto (signed through 2009)

(38) John Rheinecker (5 years?)

(39) Wes Littleton (4 years?)

(40) Joaquin Arias (5 years?)

(41) Kameron Loe (4 years?)

(42) Travis Metcalf (6 years?)

(43) Ryan Roberts (?)

(44) Jason Jennings (FA)

Not included on this list are Omar Beltre and Alexi Ogando, whose visa problems are likely to restrict them from ever being activated.  In parentheses for each player is his contract status for next.  FA indicates that a player will be a free agent in 2009.  For those players who are not under contract or eligible for free agency, the number of years that they are under team control is listed.

Unless there are trades, I see 26 players as locks to be on the 40 man roster when the winter meetings begin.  5 more players need to be resigned or replaced to ensure that Ron Washington has guys in the line-up and in the bullpen.  That leaves 9 slots available on the 40 man roster.  Among the remaining players on the current 40 man roster, I think it likely that Murray or Rheinecker will displace Guardado as the bullpen lefty and that Gabbard, Mathis, and perhaps Nippert will be kept on the roster.  That would leave the roster at 34 players. 

The remaining six slots are likely to be filled at least partially by players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft or minor league free agency.  Key minor leaguers whom the Rangers must add to the 40 man roster or risk losing to free agency or the rule 5 draft include John Mayberry, Nelson Cruz, Jose Vallejo, Omar Poveda, and Ben Harrison.  Personally, I think that Mayberry and Poveda are locks to be added.  With the remaining four roster spots, I expect the Rangers to:

(1)   Sign a free agent starting pitcher

(2)   Sign another bullpen arm

(3)   Add Vallejo and Littleton to the 40

If this is how things work out, then the Rangers will be faced with waiving Catalanatto, waving goodbye to Ramon Vazquez and Eddie Guardado, and potentially losing Rheinecker or Murray, Cruz, Arias, Harrison, Loe, and Metcalf.  Personally, I would like to see Cruz replace Byrd on the 40 and think it likely that all but perhaps Arias, Harrison and Murray or Rheinecker will pass through waivers or go unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft.

The Bottom Line

Hunter’s promotion this year is likely to cost the Rangers a player this winter.  Depending on what trades or free agent signings JD is able to execute before or during the winter meetings, the quality of the lost player could be as high as a young pitcher, Frank Catalanotto, or Jose Vallejo or as low as Ben Harrison or Travis Metcalf.  In addition, Hunter’s promotion is likely to limit JD’s ability to sign high risk/high reward guys like Gagne, Bradley, Guardado, Lofton, and Jennings which have often worked well in the past few years.