Millwood '09

by CS3 on Aug 12, 2008 8:57 AM CDT

I would have to guess that the Rangers will hope Millwood is one of their top three starters next season. I am wondering though, what if he continues next year pitching the same way he has the past couple years? Millwood's '10 season becomes guaranteed if he pitches 180 innings next year. If he is somehow pitching with an ERA around 5, but is on pace to hit 180 innings, what do the Rangers do? Is it possible they release him to make sure that they are not stuck with that contract another year, do they tell Wash to not let him pitch deep, or just hope that he doesn't hit the 180 innings mark? By my count, we have at least 8 other pitchers that could pick up the slack if we released him mid-season (Disclaimer: HUGE assumption that at least 5 are healthy): Padilla, Feldman, Hurley, Mendoza, McCarthy, Harrison, Mathis, Murray. This is also assuming that we don't get at least one other starter this off-season by way of trade or free-agent signing. This discussion might be a little pre-mature, but with these alternatives available do you think the front office would let Millwood pitch the entire year if he has an ERA around 5, or do you think they would release him to ensure that he doesn't guarantee his contract for 2010?

Poll

If Millwood somehow, although unlikely, stays healthy next year and pitches with an ERA around 5, what do the Rangers do?

Let him finish out the year and see if his option becomes guaranteed.

27 votes

Cut back on his starts so that he doesn't get to 180 innings.

7 votes

Release him before he has a chance to reach 180 innings.

8 votes

Try to dump him at the trade deadline so it is someone else's problem

44 votes

86 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 22 comments

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Comments

1 or 4

I don’t see the middle two options as very realistic. Either move could give the Rangers’ a bad reputation. It would hurt the team’s ability to sign free agent pitchers in the future, and that’s already a problem for the team.

But, I could be wrong. Is there any precedent for cutting or shutting a pitcher down so he doesn’t make his benchmarks? I’d think the players association would be unhappy about such a move, although I’m not sure what exactly they could do about it.

"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner

by trza on Aug 12, 2008 9:19 AM CDT 0 recs

kinda OT: Millwood 05 v. Sheets 08

anybody else had the thought that these two FA pitchers have some similarities heading into the FA market?

Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.

by tricer on Aug 12, 2008 9:23 AM CDT 0 recs

Millwood

I think Sheets is better but Millwood didn’t have the injury history Sheets does.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Aug 12, 2008 9:34 AM CDT up 0 recs

right

If you are comparing the two at the time they enter the FA market, Millwood would have an edge in reliability, and Sheets would have an edge in effectiveness (albeit in the NL), but when you factor in everything, isn’t Sheets about as speculative a signing as Millwood’s was?

Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.

by tricer on Aug 12, 2008 9:41 AM CDT up 0 recs

depends

What are you looking for? In Sheets you are getting one of the best pitchers in baseball, when hes healthy. If he stays healthy you look like a genious, he gets injured again and his contract looks like an albatross.

In Millwood I don’t think anyone expected him to come in and win Cy Youngs or anything. he was the best on the market at the time. He was a guy who you theoretically could pencil in for 30+ starts a year and close to 200 innings. He may give you a sub 4 ERA but most likely middle of the road. He was all about reliability which, along with needing any good pitcher, is what the Rangers needed. A guy to head the rotation and provide some stability. Personally i don’t think his stats are that far off what we should have been expecting from him. Probably a bit better but anyone who envisioned him coming in and throwing up a 3.2 ERA was fooling themselves. Only problem is he hasn’t stayed healthy and provided that stability at the top of the rotation.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Aug 12, 2008 9:47 AM CDT up 0 recs

I don't find them at all similar

They are both risky, but so what? They are risky for different reasons: Millwood because he was only good every once in a while, and Sheets because he gets injured.

Sheets is REALLY good when he pitches – one of the top 10 in the game. And he’s not injury-prone like Harden is. Its a risk, sure, but far different from Millwood (whose signing is more similar to a certain Park Chan Ho)

by JBImaknee on Aug 12, 2008 9:49 AM CDT up 0 recs

Ditto

I’d much rather take the risk of having a really good pitcher who misses some starts then a pitcher who is healthy more often (until this year, anyway) but sucks half the time.

Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.

by t ball on Aug 12, 2008 9:55 AM CDT up 0 recs

sheets - millwood

I think we are forgetting that Millwood was pretty damn good, and pretty highly regarded, when he got here.

Sheets FIP for his career is 3.54, all in the NL. Millwood’s FIP the 4 years prior to signing with the Rangers was 3.73, 3.80, 3.59, 3.29. I think the pre-Rangers Millwood is a lot more similar in quality to Sheets than what you are remembering.

Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.

by tricer on Aug 12, 2008 10:02 AM CDT up 0 recs

Sheets has always been

a better pitcher. A rare combination of a guy with a healthy K rate but also walks very few.

Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.

by t ball on Aug 12, 2008 10:04 AM CDT up 0 recs

Millwood

His ERA+ those four previous years prior to signing were 128, 99, 92, 146.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Aug 12, 2008 10:05 AM CDT up 0 recs

hit post too soon

...meanwhile Sheets ERA+ the previous 3 years have been 128, 119, 117, and 147 so far this year. Its just his injuries

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Aug 12, 2008 10:06 AM CDT up 0 recs

Nah

I know that pre-Rangers Millwood had good seasons. But no one seriously thought that the 2005 Kevin Millwood was legit – otherwise people would have paid far more than Texas did. I was excited to get him, not because I was certain he could be a #1, but because he was supposed to be a innings-eater, solid pitcher who will give you a chance to win most nights out. Basically, a solid #2 or a great #3. Teams need guys like Millwood to win in this league. The problem is that they just aren’t good enough to build a rotation around.

Sheets is a completely different pitcher. He’s a guy who can be a #1 on most staffs. He doesn’t just give you a chance to win (gives up only 3 or 4 runs) – he’ll win many games on his own (give up 2 or fewer runs).

With Sheets, I see a guy who should never even be an option for Texas, but we actually have a shot because there are some injury concerns. He’s like buying an Alfa Romeo. You know it’ll have to be in the shop every once in a while, and it doesn’t come cheap, but its a sweet drive when you have it.

by JBImaknee on Aug 12, 2008 11:07 AM CDT up 0 recs

Millwood

Its a good problem to have really. If he is on line to hit 180 innings then that means that if nothing else he has stayed healthy all year long. If he stays healthy I think this club next year will be in good shape.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Aug 12, 2008 9:36 AM CDT 0 recs

Millwood...

...”the ace”, has not been a good problem since he got to Texas. In fact, he’s been a big fat disappointing problem as he underperforms his contract.

Pinch me...this team is playing above .500???

by RangerMoto on Aug 12, 2008 9:46 AM CDT up 0 recs

yes and no

His stats aren’t that far off from what I expected when we signed him. I never thought he would come here and put up a mid 3 ERA or anything. But what I did expect was him to be out there evry 5 days and battle which is what he had done throughout his career. While yes the money doesn’t equal the results I think at the time we signed him we could afford a guy who didn’t put up the gaudy numbers but we were able to pencil in for 30+ starts every year. That is the thing that really bugs me about him is he hasn’t given us that.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Aug 12, 2008 9:50 AM CDT up 0 recs

+ 1 Millwood sucks

I've never seen a pitcher with "bone spur" issues throw 96 mph. The only spurs I'm aware of are the spurs that Wash has buried in C J's ass as he rides him. I love ya C J but welcome to Wash's DOGHOUSE.
.

by LAMuscleFag on Aug 12, 2008 11:35 AM CDT up 0 recs

We haven't seen a healthy season from Kevin yet

so this all may end up being a moot point.

by aggierangerfan00 on Aug 12, 2008 9:42 AM CDT 0 recs

2006?

He was healthy that year when he pitched 215 innings and won 16 games for us.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Aug 12, 2008 9:55 AM CDT up 0 recs

Eh he got lucky...

"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin

by utlonghorn24 on Aug 12, 2008 10:25 AM CDT up 0 recs

But he was given

a guaranteed FOUR year deal with options for a fifth so the fact that he has had one decent year (don’t overrate 2006 because his ERA at home that year was 5.38) out of three makes this another disappointing free agent signing by JD.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

by Josey Wales on Aug 12, 2008 10:47 AM CDT up 0 recs

Like i said

I wasn’t expecting him to come in and throw up an ERA in the 3s or anything like that. but what I was expecting him to do is come in and start 34,35 games and pitch close to 200 innings. By that count 2006 was a very successful year. His last two haven’t been that way.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Aug 12, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up 0 recs

"a guaranteed FOUR year deal"

No shit, Sherlock. It takes a four+ year deal to sign any decent FA pitcher, that is the current reality. Guaranteed? Yeah, just like all MLB contracts.

You bitch and whine about the Rangers not signing any free agents, and then bitch and whine when they do.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley

by Rodney on Aug 12, 2008 11:23 AM CDT up 0 recs