Randy Johnson
by clark on Aug 12, 2008 12:42 PM CDT
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PrintI have seen this on here before, but i thought i would float the idea again to see how the opinions range. RJ is going to be a FA after the season, and while he no longer qualifies as an ace, he still seems capable of consistantly delivering quality starts (at least in the weak NL West).
The Rangers have a number of young starters on the verge, but many, including Harrison and Hunter, are probably better served starting next year in AAA to continue to work on their command and offspeed offerings. At the same time, the team should probably avoid signing a pitcher to a long term contract unless it is someone like Sabathia (I am weary even of Sheets).
Bringing in a guy like Johnson on a one year deal to start every fifth day and mentor our young pitchers seems like a good idea to me, especially if we fail to land a big name pitcher. As a bonus, it seems unlikely Johnson would be a type A, so the Rangers would not have to forfeit a pick for him. I would also think he has a decent relationship with Nolan, who I think wants to compete sooner, rather than later. Johnson could help us compete next year without blocking our young pitchers long term.
Here are his stats on the year. He has pitched much better of late, after starting the year injured. Thoughts?
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i'm really starting to get pessimistic about Texas' chances of signing
a top FA pitcher this offseason.
On the radio today in Houston, they were talking about how the Astros must go get a big-name pitcher this offseason. There are just too many teams with the need and the payroll unfortunately.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
Honestly
There are not many teams that can offer more than Hicks if he actually decides to pony up and offer something huge. And even if it came down to a situation where the money was nearly equal, for whom would a pitcher rather pitch for: the up and coming Rangers or someone like the Astros, who a re going to be either bad or mediocre for a while now.
"Well, the Dallas Mavericks got beat by the New Orleans Hornets last night ending their season. Word is that someone on the team is dating Jessica Simpson." - Jay Leno
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While the Rangers are looking better than they have for a long time I still don’t see the Rangers as a logical destination for a top free agent unless they get an ARod-type contract.
We’ve got a lon, long history of failure. Worse we have a long history of flip-flopping and changing direction mid-stream.
Our future is bright mostly because of prospects, and most of them are still a little far away yet. We don’t look that good for 2009 and really who knows about 2010.
If money is reasonably close, and there’s little reason to believe that the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, etc. won’t make money reasonable close for a top free agent than why would any free agent choose the Rangers? In addition, there are other up and coming teams with what look like a brighter immediate future and their “prospects” all ready performing in MLB, e.g. Rays.
Don't look that good for 09?
How can you say that after the way we’ve played this year. We have one of the youngest rosters in the majors and are holding our own. We’ve been decimated by injuries and had to rely on a bunch, and I mean a bunch, of young guys. We have guys like Kinsler and Hamilton who figure to only get better as they enter their primes. This is Hammys first full season playing full time and figures to only improve as he learns how to condition his body to take the rigor of a full schedule. Young guys like Crush and Murphy are doing well as rookies and our pitchers will have this time as experience under their belt. If we stay healthy next year we look to be right in the thick of things.
As for Johnson I wouldn’t be opposed to it IF we don’t land one of the top guys. However if we do then Johnson would be blocking someone unless we can shed either Millwood or Padillas contract although I really want to keep Padilla
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Yep, don't look *that* good for 2009
For starters we don’t look anything like the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox for 09.
The Rangers essentially have losing team in 2008. Again, while they have a nice farm system they don’t have anything coming in in 09 that will make enough of a difference to take what essentially is a losing team to a serious competitor.
As for Hamilton getting better. He is in his prime. Most ball players peak at ages 26-27. Hamilton will be 28 and it’s hard to imagine him playing better next year. Ditto for Kinsler less one year. I’m not saying they’ll necessarily be worse, but to expect them to be better isn’t all that realistic either.
we stay healthy next year we look to be right in the thick of things."[/i]You’ve made my case for me. Temper your statement above with the reality of guys like Kinsler and Hamilton not getting better and the best you can for the Rangers is we’re in the thick of things IF things go right for us.
If things go right for the Yankees or the Red Sox or the Angels they’ll win 100 games! That’s a huge difference and thus the gist of my original post.
As a free agent with most things being equal there’s little reason to choose TX over another team for the next two years.
Rangers
Players primes are not 26-27. They are more 28-30/31. And Hamilton is a different case because of all the time he missed. He is basically still learning the pro game and getting by on alot of natural talent. There is no reason to expect he cannot get better. As with Kinsler we have seen his progression this year when he is told he will be a leadoff hitter he adapts his offensive style to suit that spot in the lineup. The guy has legit 25 homerun power, 40 steal capability, and .330-.340 average ability. I believe his defense will get better and he along with Hamilton will be MVP candidates for the next several years together.
The Angels all get another year older. That puts their outfield at about an average age of 50 I believe so to think they can keep things up is a bit out of the question. They will lose Teixeira. Their young pitching is nice but there is a very good possibility their offense falls waaaaaaay off next year and they could be looking like Oakland did to start this year.
The Yankees will be relying heavily on young pitchers next year and although they are highly touted they are young still. In their division going up against Boston and TB as much as they will I don’t see them coming close to 100 wins.
Boston does look to be about the same next year. However we are seeing the lack of protection for Ortiz is not exactly making them a juggernaut offensively. Bay is nice but hes no Manny at the plate. They will be good but if Ortiz goes down again they could be in some serious trouble.
You are right the Rangers do have to have things fall right for them next year. However I believe we are in a better place to capitalize on other teams mistakes than we are this year. Our offense should be unbelievably good again and with our young pitching continuing to mature and improve we look to be right in the thick of things and who knows where that takes us
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Not according to several studies.
The player’s value typically peaks around 27-28. That’s not to say that ALL players will peak at 27-28. But that it is the most likely peak year for a random player.
Of course, I don’t know if the studies take into account potentially PED use.
http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/woolner/peakage.htm
http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.html
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3418037
Also, a potential reason why some people still persist in believing a 30+ year peak:
Since the pool of players is different at all age levels, in order to see at what age players in general "peak" at whatever skill, you have to look at the average difference between all players’ 23 and 24 year, 22 and 23 year, etc. That is the "delta method" and is the only way to do aging curves and establish peaks. You cannot look at speed scores among 23-year-old players and then 24-year-old players, etc. Heck, if you do that, you will find that offense peaks at like age 30 or 31 (since age 30 or 31 players are the best players offensively; the bad players never make it to age 30 or 31).
from http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/projection-roundtable-part-3/
Also, plate discipline tends to peak later in mid-30s, I believe.
R
They are more 28-30/31.<<<
No, actually they are not. They’re 26-27, maybe 28.
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/04/peak-age-another-estimate/
http://books.google.com/books?id=uxdvwQdXbboC&pg=PA412&lpg=PA412&dq=baseball+player’s+peak+age&source=web&ots=JAs7_j1E89&sig=fm6GKuLM1IQ5kjrnsqStE_L5LiU&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=2&ct=result
Bill James states 25-28.
And Hamilton is a different case because of all the time he missed.<<<
Huh? Because Hamilton was doing drugs his body is going to age better?! No. peak mostly has to do with one’s physical abilities not their baseball education.
Again, “in the thick of things” < alomst assured to win 90 and maybe well beyond
Yeah, and just look at the pitching staffs as Tricer suggests. Yankees are the worst of those and their young guys are far, far more respected than the Rangers.
“And Hamilton is a different case because of all the time he missed.”<<<
Oops that supposed to be me typing th efollowing:
Huh? Because Hamilton was doing drugs his body is going to age better?! No. peak mostly has to do with one’s physical abilities not their baseball education.
I didn't explain enough
Most guys don’t take 4 years off baseball and just come back the way Josh has. That goes to show how incredibly gifted he is naturally. He played in 15 games back in 2006 before being selected in the rule 5 in 07 by Cincy. Thats all the time he had in the minors in 4 years. Last year his natural talents showed what he could do and he was still getting back into playing baseball everyday and it showed as he only played in 90 games and had several nagging injuries.
Now this year he focused on getting his body ready to go through the rigors of a fuill baseball season and for the most part he has stayed relatively healthy. Hes on pace to play 135-140 games which is a good number for him. He is still developing as a baseball player. Now his natural talent is being accentuated by his developing a better understanding of the game. Hes becoming a more complete player. If you want to think about it this year would basically be what you would expect from him as a 22 or 23 year old. And while he won’t keep developing for 5 more years he will continue to get better and more refined and although he wil be 28/29 years old its almost like he will be a 25/26 year old. Thats why I say he has the ability to have his prime stretch into his early 30s
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
No need to explain further
I knew where you were going with it and responded with this simple fact that:
“peak mostly has to do with one’s physical abilities not their baseball education.”
Can Hamilton get better next year? Sure.
But to actually expect him to improve upon an OPS 140+ season with no track record of doing so is silly.
you can say we don't look that good for next year
Because our starting rotation sucks. We don’t have a single guy that could be reasonably counted on to provide 200 league average innings. Teams that have horrible rotations don’t look very good, and don’t have much chance for any real success.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
expanding a little
It sounds simplistic to say that the Rangers will be better when the pitching gets better, but we already have the most prolific offense in the league (by 70 runs!), so you can’t realistically expect much improvement there. Then when you look at the pitching staff and defense, there doesn’t really seem to be a difference maker that you can count on in 2009. I think we’d need to see a couple of guys burst on the scene, and a handfull more to make incremental improvements, to really differentiate next years team (with the talent currently on hand).
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
I disagree
Guys like Davis, Kinsler, Hamilton, and Murphy absolutely have room to grow and get better offensively and defensively. Same can be said of Salty.
And as far as difference makers go I know I have a bias but McCarthy and Hurley could definitely be difference makers if BMac can come back healthy and Hurley uses his time this year to build off of and be a better pitcher next year.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I disagree with your disagreement.
Of the players you cited, only Salty really has “room to grow”
Kinsler and Hamilton are very unlikely to significantly outperform their current 2008 numbers:
Kinsler – .319/.378/.506 – for reference, Sandberg’s best year was .314/.367/.520, Morgan’s best year was .320/.444/.576, and these were inner-circle Hall of Famers
Hamilton – .303/.367/.554 – May’s best year = .317/.398/.645, Griffey’s best year = .323/402/.674
Davis is very also unlikely to significantly outperform his 2008 numbers, though we will have him for the full season: .279/.318/.585
Murphy doesn’t seem like he’s much more than the 4th outfielder he was projected to be (not that there’s anything wrong with that). Minor league avgs: .273/.343/.407 ~= 2008 #s: .275/.321/.465. There’s not likely much upside to be had here.
And this isn’t taking into account all the potential losses of run production there might be:
Kinsler, Hamilton and Davis might be worse next year.
Someone needs to replace (31/Career Year) Bradley’s monstrous season: .319/.446/.590 whether it be through a 31-yo Bradley or some free agent.
(31/Career Year) Marlon Byrd’s played pretty darn well over more than half a season .286/.374/.464
(29) Laird has been above average at .292/.344/.428
(32/Career Year) Vazquez has been amazing at .316/.383/.478 over more than half a season
Heck, even (32) Young’s been at least average this year .287/.337/.414
That’s a lot of production that has to be replaced where it’s not likely to be easily replaced (except for maybe Laird’s production) with 5 career years in play over > 4 spots in the lineup.
The Rangers are currently on pace (before tonight’s game) to score 908 Runs. In the past 5 years, the only teams to have scored more were:
Yankees (968 in 2007, 930 in 2006)
Red Sox (910 in 2005, 949 in 2004, 961 in 2003)
So, it’s kind of far-fetched to say there’s significant room for growth here.
R
Glad someone realizes
that guys like Hamilton and Kinsler won’t keep getting better every year. The offense will very likely regress a bit next season, making it even more important the team acquire a stud to front the rotation and do anything else possible to improve the pitching.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
+ 1
I've never seen a pitcher with "bone spur" issues throw 96 mph. The only spurs I'm aware of are the spurs that Wash has buried in C J's ass as he rides him. I love ya C J but welcome to Wash's DOGHOUSE.
.
by LAMuscleFag on Aug 13, 2008 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
But teams like the Rays
can not shell out money the way Hicks can. This again relies on Hicks. If he can step up and offer up alot of money, I could definitely see a guy like Sheets signing here.
"Well, the Dallas Mavericks got beat by the New Orleans Hornets last night ending their season. Word is that someone on the team is dating Jessica Simpson." - Jay Leno
LSB facebook group ---->>> http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=33345329288
Not for a lot of money.
I can’t see a Sheet signing here for a lot of money. Presumably cause the Angels or Yanks or someone who looks better will offer a lot of money too.
Now, should Hicks offer a lot more money, like he did with ARod, sure I can defintiely see a top free agent signing here.
That’s my point though. Currently the Rangers only look like a better destination if Hicks makes the money a lot better. Every other reason the other teams with similar money look better.
But looking at it from his view
are the Angels going to be offer alot of money?? they’re going to have to resign Vlad, Krod, and Tex at the least, while having to work out long term deals for guys like Lackey. And as for the Yankees, even though they do have alot of money going off, I think they will most likely go after Sabathia. Plus they’re not going to want to go into next year without Mussina or Pettite, so I expect them to pay up to get them too. If you ask me, this is the perfect time for Hicks to strike and land a top tier free agent pitcher in Sheets, and if he has to give a lot more money, than so be it.
"Well, the Dallas Mavericks got beat by the New Orleans Hornets last night ending their season. Word is that someone on the team is dating Jessica Simpson." - Jay Leno
LSB facebook group ---->>> http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=33345329288
I actually think that
Houston and Texas are two of the main organizations hoping to add a big pitcher. Unfortunately the Yankees may be another, but the fact that Houston would like to may not be that much of an indication that everyone is, if you look at their organization.
At any rate, you’re right, from what we’re hearing about how much cash is lying around, this ain’t the best time to try to go grap a stud starter.
Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return
by Brett Perryman on Aug 12, 2008 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions
If we can get Randy Johnson for a one-year deal
it’s a no-brainer.
Put it this way…when Neftali Feliz is in the Majors next year do you want him to have Randy Johnson as his mentor or Kevin Millwood? Game over.
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
Does Johnson mentor younger pitchers?
I’ve always heard he was real prick. But maybe that’s just to the media.
by texnykazrus on Aug 12, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Johnson
Did Chris Young throw a bullpen session with him? I seem to recall Young at least saying that he had some productive conversations with him.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
same here
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 12, 2008 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
+ 1
I don’t want Millwood to teach him anything..keep it zipped up Kevin.
I've never seen a pitcher with "bone spur" issues throw 96 mph. The only spurs I'm aware of are the spurs that Wash has buried in C J's ass as he rides him. I love ya C J but welcome to Wash's DOGHOUSE.
.
He can direct them to the buffet line
Or impart the wisdom of kickboxing and how it helps one stay in shape and off the DL.
Or you mean to stay out of shape and on the DL :)
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
+ 1 good follow up Greenie clap clap clap clap
I've never seen a pitcher with "bone spur" issues throw 96 mph. The only spurs I'm aware of are the spurs that Wash has buried in C J's ass as he rides him. I love ya C J but welcome to Wash's DOGHOUSE.
.
+ 1 perfect!
buffet line coordinater….thats the perfect job for Milly if Ponson was still here I’d have to give it to him but Milly takes the cake (no pun) :)
I've never seen a pitcher with "bone spur" issues throw 96 mph. The only spurs I'm aware of are the spurs that Wash has buried in C J's ass as he rides him. I love ya C J but welcome to Wash's DOGHOUSE.
.
Question
if we were to sign a Type A like Sheets, what pick would we have to give up?? A second rounder?
"Well, the Dallas Mavericks got beat by the New Orleans Hornets last night ending their season. Word is that someone on the team is dating Jessica Simpson." - Jay Leno
LSB facebook group ---->>> http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=33345329288
It depends on
our place in the standings at the end of the year. If we have one of the worst 15 records (bottom-half in the league) we keep our first round pick and lose our 2nd. If we have one of the best 15 records in the league (top-half), we lose our first round pick.
Draft Pick
Currently if we sign a Type A we would be giving up a 1st rounder.
This is the Texas Rangers, professional destroyers of hope, we're talking about. - BAC
No
The Rangers should only be signing someone if they are at the front of the rotation. They have plenty of also rans, they need lead dogs. Sign a leader or trade for a young controllable guy, don’t waste money on retreads.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
RJ and Millwood
they could alternate starts. Maybe they would stay healthy if they did that.
"An effortless 98" - Scott Gardner after Neftali Feliz's first AA pitch
by RangerMad on Aug 12, 2008 1:00 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
great post
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 12, 2008 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
+ rec
"Well, the Dallas Mavericks got beat by the New Orleans Hornets last night ending their season. Word is that someone on the team is dating Jessica Simpson." - Jay Leno
LSB facebook group ---->>> http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=33345329288
Arizona
is where Johnson wants to pitch. His family is there and I doubt he would leave for any other team unless the offer blew him away (what team would do that).
I have nothing to say
+1
for the money we would have to spend to get him here, its clearly not worth it. I can think of a half a dozen places that money could be better spent just off the top of my head.
yea
much better off having jason jennings this year huh
by icouldusesomebaseball on Aug 12, 2008 1:40 PM CDT reply actions
if Randy wants to come in for Jennings money I'd listen
But something tells me he isn’t interested in that kind of contract.
i dont think
that anybody is disagreeing that it would be good if we could get him cheap. what everyone seems to be assuming, or at least 24 of you yahoos, is that we could get him for pennies on the dollar to move from the NL back to the AL at this stage of his career.
He’s not leaving AZ except for a boatload of cash, and if any single one of you advocates tossing significant sums of money at a rundown Randy Johnson, I personally will make sure to tell you youre an idiot every single chance I get.
if he is one
of 2 or 3 pitchers picked up it couldn’t hurt. you’d want to sign him to a 1 year deal obviously. throw in an incentive to 120 or 140 innings pitched…
but he shouldn’t be one of the top 5 pitchers to target. if he’s still available after those guys are signed, why not pick him up?
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
25-25
are you kidding me?
id rather bring in freddy effing garcia than RJ
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
Oh dear god NO
If you want a formerly good pitcher to come in here and do a below-average job at pitching while eating some innings in between DL-stints cause his back no longer functions properly, let’s just admit that we’re idiots who aren’t interested in winning and do it cheaper by getting David Wells.
I’d hang myself before advocating such a horribly atrocious move.
Jerk me off with a freaking spoon.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
A spoon?
That must take some mad skillz, and a killer technique!
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley
at least david wells is also entertaining lol
maybe he can find an old toby harrah hat or something lol
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 12, 2008 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks for the feedback.
I agree with most that he is unlikely to leave the AZ area. But if, for whatever reason, the Rangers were able to sign him for Jason Jennings money, then i would be all for it.
I do like the idea of him being around our young pitchers, and his 125 innings would be second on our team this year, so he is actually less broken down than every starter we have, save Padilla. Like most, I hope the Rangers can sign someone like Sabathia, and am encouraged to hear that we intend to make a hard push for him, but if that falls through (alas, it usually does) then I would rather have Johnson on a one year deal than someone like Dempster on a 3 or 4 year deal.
if we can't land a true ace
through free agency or a trade, I say hell yes to a Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez. Randy’s going to probably be looking for win # 300 next year, unless he runs off 7 more wins this year, and that would be a big thing for him to do in a Rangers’ uniform. He still strikes batters out, has a lot to teach our young pitchers, and if we move Millwood or Padilla (not likely) in the offseason, we’ll need a reliable vet to go with our young staff.
"So you have no frame of reference here, Donny. You're like a child who wanders into the middle of a movie and wants to know... "
+ 1 well done Walter!
Bring on the old redneck! Beggars can’t be choosers!
I've never seen a pitcher with "bone spur" issues throw 96 mph. The only spurs I'm aware of are the spurs that Wash has buried in C J's ass as he rides him. I love ya C J but welcome to Wash's DOGHOUSE.
.
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