Eric Hurley - Overrated prospect?
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 1:08 PM CDT
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I have read some really, really stupid things before, but calling Hurley as the most overrated prospect is absolutely asinine.If you don’t include the last game he pitched when it was OBVIOUS he was still hurt, his ERA was 3.5 through four games with a 1-1 record.
-sidebar54
this comment got me going simply because i am tired of many on here giving him a free pass, making excuses and generally replying the way sidebar 54 did...
simply because a guy comes up and ds ok in the majors doesnt mean hes a good prospect.
look at the entire body of work.
hurley at AAA:
26 Starts
148 IP
6-12
5.10 era
4.84 Defense Independent Component ERA
57 bb:131 k
28 HR allowed
9.18 h/9
1.7 hr/9
7.96 k/9
1.41 whip
hurley in MLB:
5 starts
24.2 ip
1-2
5.47 era
9 bb:13 k
5 HR allowed
9.47 h/9
1.82 hr/9
4.7 k/9
1.42 whip
5 MLB starts:
1- 6 ip, 0 bb, 3k, 2 hr - 92 pitches - 4 gb: 13 fb
2- 5 ip, 2 bb, 5k, 1 hr - 106 pitches - 4 gb: 7 fb
3- 6 ip, 3 bb, 1k, 0 hr - 88 pitches - 6 gb: 13 fb
4- 5.2 ip, 2 bb, 3k, 0 hr - 102 pitches - 3 gb:9 fb
5- 2 ip, 2 bb, 1k, 2 hr - 50 pitches - 2 gb:6 fb
recieved 4.09 runs of run support
game scores for his 5 starts:
game scores work like this:
a pitcher STARTS with 50 pts
+1 for each out recorded
+2 for each inning after the 4th
+1 for k
-2 for hits allowed
-4 for ER allowed
-2 for unearned allowed
-1 for bb
1- 47
3- 52
3- 50
4- 56
5- 23
from Josh Kalks Pitch FX site: http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/Eric_Hurley.html
Similarity Scores Sim Score
1 Claudio_Vargas 99.22
2 Ron_Villone 98.53
3 Ian_Snell 98.48
4 Braden_Looper 98.3
5 Sean_Henn 98.29
6 LaTroy_Hawkins 98.09
7 Romulo_Sanchez 98.01
8 Brad_Hennessey 97.94
9 Garrett_Olson 97.7
10 Kelvin_Jimenez 97.64
(Scott Lucas on hurley/PitchFX: http://www.rangers.scottlucas.com/archives/2008/07/pitchfx_on_eric.html)
general trends:
year level era k/9 bb/9 whip hr allowed
2006 a+ 4.11 9.48 2.86 1.23 12
(20) aa 1.95 7.54 2.68 0.86 4
2007 aa 3.25 7.71 2.74 1.11 13
(21) aaa 5.28 7.24 3.44 1.27 13
2008 aaa 5.30 8.68 3.50 1.54 15
(22) majors 5.47 4.74 3.28 1.42 5
era has consistantly gone up since 2006
k/9 have gond down since 2006 with a blip at AAA this year
bb/9 have gone up since 2006
always allowed HR
prospect comparison:
this year - pitchers in rangers community top 10 (not goign to compare feliz)
2. neftali feliz
3. eric hurley
7. michael main
8. blake beavan
10. kasey kiker
michael main
(last year)
18- rookie: 12 ip, 1.42 era, 6bb:16k, 1 hr, 1.18 whip
18- loA: 15 ip, 4.70 era, 7bb:18k, 1 hr, 1.37 whip
(this year)
19- rookie: 13 ip, 3.38 era, 5 bb:15 k, 1 hr, 1.05 whip
19- loA: 28 ip, 2.25 era, 12bb:28k, 1 hr allowed, 1.25 whip
loA 43 ip, 3.47 era, 19bb:46k, 2 hr, 1.31 whip
blake beavan
19- loA: 102 ip, 2.28 era, 17bb:60k, 9 hr, 1.01 whip
kasey kiker:
18- loA: 53 ip, 4.39 era, 38bb:52k, 5 hr, 1.59 whip
19- A: 96 ip, 2.90 era, 41bb:112k, 10 hr, 1.30 whip
20- hiA: 102 ip, 4.30 era, 29bb:90k, 11 hr, 1.35 whip (103 hits)
hurley:
18- loA: 28 ip, 5.40 era, 6bb:21k, 6 hr, 1.31 whip
19- A: 155 ip, 3.77 era, 59bb:152k, 11 hr, 1.25 whip
20- hiA: 100 ip, 4.11 era, 31bb:106k, 12 hr, 1.23 whip (92 hits)
overall:
18- hurley = least IP, highest ERA, highest hr/9, fairly even whip (1.31 vs 1.01 vs 1.59 vs 1.31)
19- hurley = more IP (by a lot), higher ERA, same HR allowed, lower whip by .05
20- hurley = even IP, hurley .19 lower ERA, 16 more k, 2 more bb, .10 higher whip
18- beavan/main were better (remember main would have been BA's #1 prospect in his loA league had he had the IP)
19- probably hurley (higher ip/k, everything else about even)
20- hurley slightly better at baskerfield, pitched well at frisco
hurley vs harrison:
hurley:
18- loA: 28 ip, 5.40 era, 6bb:21k, 6 hr, 1.31 whip
19- A: 155 ip, 3.77 era, 59bb:152k, 11 hr, 1.25 whip
20- hiA/AA: 138 ip, 3.52 era, 43bb:137k, 16 hr, 1.13 whip
21- AA/AAA 162 ip, 4.00 era, 55bb:135k, 26 hr, 1.18 whip
22- AAA: 74 ip, 5.30 era, 29bb:72k, 15 hr, 1.54 whip
minors: 108 games, 26-23, 580 ip, 3.97 era, 197bb:534k, 68 hr, 1.24 whip, faced 2250 batters
harrison:
18- rookie 66 ip, 4.09 era, 10bb:49k, 3 hr, 1.24 whip
19- A: 167 ip, 3.23 era, 39bb:118k, 17 hr, 1.08 whip
20- A+/AA: 158 ip, 3.36 era, 33bb:114k, 12 hr, 1.22 whip
21- AA: 116 ip, 3.39 era, 34bb:78k, 6 hr, 1.30 whip
22- AA/AAA: 84 ip, 3.44 era, 28bb:55k, 6 hr, 1.39 whip
minors: 112 games, 30-22, 630 ip, 3.44 era, 144bb, 447k, 41 hr, 1.23 whip, faced 2175 batters
overall, the only stat in which hurley is "better" is k's (by a fairly wide margin)
are about equal in whip, starts (101 vs 105)
harrison has allowed less walks (by a large margin), and has a better era (also by a fairly large margin) and allowed fewer HR in more IP
harrison also faced fewer batters in 50 more IP...for what thas worth
---
here are my questions:
-what has he done the last 2 years (2007 in aa/aaa and 2008 in aaa/majors) to show he is still a top prospect?
-does his "stuff" make him ranked that high (ie: beavans slider coming out of HS, feliz FB - verlanders stuff w/o control coming out of college) - no. he has no plus-plus pitches. does he have multiple plus pitches?
-i know harrison is seen as a "control" guy and that has gotten him through the minors, but is his stuff REALLY that much better than hurleys?
i think it is fairly clear by his AAA stats that he hit a wall at AAA. i understand his high ranking at AA but after he hit AAA he was still seen as the savior. the next FOTF.
however it seems that MANY people on this board simply stopped watching after he went from AA to AAA.
as the #3 prospect, ahead of guys like andrus, MaxRam, smoak and the other pitchers listed he IS the most overrated prospect in our organization.
who else comes close?
andrus- age + finally hitting
maxram- still plus-plus bat
smoak- expected to be gg/middle of the order hitter
main- was hurt last yr, #1 pick
beavan- signed late, low ks
teagarden- plus glove, low BA
kiker- short, lefty
harrison- injury prone
beltre- very young
borbon- cant take a walk
imo he shuold be in the 7-10 range.
ahead of him: davis, feliz, andrus, maxram, smoak, main, beavan and in same area as teagarden/kiker/harrison
hurley- give up lots of fly balls and HR, not a high K rate, not a great bb/9 rate. WHAT is the justification for having him ahead of guys like andrus, maxram, the #11 pick this year, a guy who would have been the top prospect in both his leagues last year, bevan?
for that matter, what has he done to be ahead of teagarden? harrison?
what other prospect do we have that is THIS overrated? simple answer: we dont.
---
this said, dont think im saying the guy is a bum and should be cut from the 40 man roster tomorrow...because im not. im just saying...hes not a #1. hes not a #2. hes probably not a #3 unless his k's go up. hes probably a #4 or #5 and if hes a solid #4 or #5 then i am ok with that.
(sorry its so long/stats/etc - been thinking about this forever as it is and finally decided to put it all together)
my main point is that as the #3 prospect on a top 5 farm system he is being grossly overrated by many people on LSB. to clarify, im not saying hes an overrated pitcher, or that hes a bad pitcher. im saying hes an overrated #3 prospect. ...sorry for the confusion.
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Comments
Ditto
Most people here expect him to be a mid-rotation guy who eats innings, gives up too many homers. Few here are expecting him to be an ace.
The important point in that is to remember that getting a decent #3 starter is a huge success in pitcher development. If Hurley manages a 4.50 ERA year in and year out, that’s a successful development story. People have unrealistic expectations of what a #3 is, not what Hurley is.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
I agree with you and I agree with koking; therefore, you agree with koking
Here’s why. You described Hurley as “a mid-rotation guy who eats innings, gives up too many homers.”
I have seen, on numerous occassions, Tommy Hunter described as a No. 3-5 innings eater as well. Yet Hurley is No. 6 on the LSB prospect list and Hunter is No. 16. What has Hurley done so much better than Hunter to this point in their respective careers to warrant being 10 spots higher in these incredibly unscientific prospect rankings?
So, unless one believes Tommy Hunter should be in the 7-10 range in the rankings, KOKing is correct, Hurley is probably the most overrated player in the LSB list … and we all can agree on that.
by robert_d_wilfong on Aug 13, 2008 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Whoops
I was looking at thedirk’s own ratings, not the LSB ratings.
But my point is even more pronounced with Hurley as No. 3 and Hunter as No. 15 in the LSB rankings. So actually, Hunter needs to be No. 4-7 in the prospect rankings in order for Hurley not to be overrated.
by robert_d_wilfong on Aug 13, 2008 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
No
Because I view Hunter as a #4 at best, not a #3. I also think that Hurley has an outside shot to be a #2, though I don’t expect it. My personal rankings for this summer’s polls were:
Davis
Feliz
Smoak
Andrus
Hurley
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
I do not believe that he is a #1 starter but if his 3.5 ERA can last an entire season, which I’m not saying it can, that would damn sure be the best pitcher that we have. Our team has showed that a pitcher can win 15 games with an ERA of about 5 so theres not telling what a 3.5 ERA could win. Our team needs way more than just a #1 starter, so if he can be a good 2 or 3 I think we would all take that.
the question is
do you REALLY think it can stay at 3.5 all year when he hasnt had an era under 3.5 EVER?
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions
the thing I don't understand about Hurley
What happened to his stuff?
If I’m remembering correctly, he was touted as a live arm, blow ‘em away with the big fastball type of guy when we drafted him and the thinking was that if he could develop some amount of pitchability, he had a pretty high ceiling. Now, it seems like his plus velocity is long gone and he is trying to survive with stuff that is kinda on the fringe for a ML starter.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
i don't understand this either
i watched him pitch in frisco and i read every recap on his starts, and he was hitting 96 in the later innings and worked alot at 93-94. i dont think he ever threw a FB in the start i saw that was less than 91. what happened?
by sanangelofan on Aug 13, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
radar guns
That is why you can never believe radar gun readings, unless you actually saw a scouts gun. The reason I say scouts gun is that unless you aim the gun at exactly the right point, you won’t get an accurate rating. Scouts know what they are doing, team personnel don’t. That is one of the reasons the stadium/TV guns are always different/wrong.
I agree that he has been overrated
I see him as a good #4 pitcher. But you know what – the Rangers have only one guy on the team this year who has pitched well enough to be a #4 pitcher on a good club, so I’ll take that any day.
It is hard to discount players due to age and proximity to the big leagues – is a #4 who is here now worth more / less than a guy in A ball with #2 potential? Remember, half of the guys in the latter group never see the big leagues…
FWIW, I contend that Thomas Diamond has been the most overrated guy in this organization since the day he was drafted.
Overrating prospects
First, everyone loved the DVD, then when they hit AAA/MLB they were considered overrated cause they all struggled. Now 2 out of 3 have proven to exceed our own expectations. Basically my point is that we should just watch and see before we overrated someone.
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
*before we consider someone overrated
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
made it to the majors:
danks
volquez
both are doing very well right now
injuries:
diamond
im saying what has he done since 2006 to show that hes one of our top prospects
and im saying if ppl rate him as one of our top prospects, they are overrating him by a lot
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Nobody thinks he is one of our top prospects anymore...
Go look at the LSB Prospect Rankings
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
i meant
“if people rate hurley as one of our top prospects, they are overrating him by a lot”
sry hurley, not diamond
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
That's taken into consideration
when they rank them…
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
+1
he hasnt even pitched half a season and he is overrated? You must really hate hunter and harrison.
Give him time, even if he develops into rick helling redux, that is still not a bad thing.
I'm sorry my parents never had me sarcamsized.
so you think
that he deserves to be the texas rangers #3 prospect as of midseason 2008?
if hes rick helling redoux, thats great, but is that the #3 prospect of the texas rangers, one of the top 5 farm systems in the league?
what has hurley shown, since 2006, to make him NOT be overrated?
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions
no
i dont believe i ever said that and I never voted for him that high.
I'm sorry my parents never had me sarcamsized.
well thats my point
that he is overrated as the rangers #3 prospect…
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions
I think part of it
is that this team’s fans are weary of rating guys like Main and Beavan higher because we have seen a number of prospects who seem to see a diminishment of their stuff or effectiveness as they rise through the ranks. With all that can go wrong over the course of a young pitcher’s development, I think the fans gave Hurley a higher rank because he has made it to the majors at a relatively young age with moderate success.
Also, keep in mind that at the time of those rankings he had made a couple of very effective starts. A month later, he has had a horrible start that inflated his stats and then succombed to injury. It is natural for the “what have you done for me lately” bias to influence fans during the polling process.
fair enough
where do you live btw? (saw out of TX market earlier)
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
according to lsb cpp?
yes, i agree although thats not necessarily a bad thing nor does it make him a bad or overrated prospect. You could say goldstein overrated feliz back when he ranked him #1 and you might have been right. Now it is a different story, all I am saying is that we should give him some time before we call him overrated or not. Even danks struggled as a rookie and look at him now. They were thought of in the same class at one point in time after all.
I'm sorry my parents never had me sarcamsized.
your misunderstanding
im saying that hes overrated as our #3 prospect (according to LSB comm. prospect ranking) and that many on here overrate him/expect him to turn into something that hes not.
im not saying hes an overrated pitcher (that goes to guys like RA Dickey lol) – in fact rick helling was a very underrated guy.
please dont think im saying hes a bad pitcher, a bad person or overrated…just as the #3 prospect in a top 5 farm system many on LSB overrate him
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think he's overrated as the #3 prospect
There are several guys with higher ceilings, but he has a decent ceiling that he is pretty likely to reach in my opinion. He’s much, much closer to fulltime major league player than the other arms in the system.
Ranking prospects is subjective and means weighing all these factors. You weigh them differently, but that doesn’t mean everyone else is wrong.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
i still guarantee
that no offseason prospect ranking other than this one will have him in our top 3 or 4.
period
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
why are you taking our amateur ranking so seriously
Most of the people who voted had very little if any knowledge about a bunch of these players. Only a handful of people on here are probably qualified to actually rank prospects. Why are you getting so caught up with our message board prospect rankings?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
would you like me to change it
to the fact that hes an overrated prospect by many on thsi board
because thats true too.
im sick of all the hurley fanboys (steal_home, etc) acting like the guy is the second coming.
hes a solid arm. yes
hes not a savior.
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Hey
Hes a 22 year old who we drafted and developed and has made it to the majors and held his own before going down to injury. Its not out of the realm to think some people will be fans of his and think he is better than he is. Look at LSJ and Salty (thats the only one I can think of right now im not trying to start anything LSJ). When we as fans hear about these “prospects” coming up and having this really good abilities we get attached and overrate them.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
thats right
and i am trying to get people to be somewhat objective…
so if he does flop (knock on wood) people dont jump out of buildings
its this damn ranger pessimism
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions
and also
You point to alot of others stats from the last couple years as evidence of why Hurley shouldn’t be rated as high. How about this.
At 20 years old
Hurley: AA/ 6 games/ 1.95 ERA/ 0.86 WHIP
Feliz: AA/ 4 games/ 2.21 ERA/ 1.03 WHIP
Harrison: AA/ 13 games (12 starts)/ 3.72 ERA/ 1.31 WHIP
Danks: AA/ 18 games (17 starts)/ 5.49 ERA/ 1.54 WHIP
Now obviously its a very small sample size but Hurleys numbers are the best of all of them. Ahead of a guy who currently resides as our top pitching prospect, someone who people drool over and are wanting to rush to the big leagues, and will probably be one of the top prospects in all of baseball.
Ahead of a guy who people constantly keep complaining that we traded away
And ahead of a guy who is also in the bigs at 22 and struggling.
I think the reason people rated him so high is because he has actually broken through to the big leagues. We have seen before pitchers put up good numbers in the minors but either be traded away before getting to the bigs or not performing once they got here. So you put him ahead of the likes of Beavan, Main, Kiker and Holland even though those guys could be better simply because Hurley has actually done it.
I really just think you should calm down stop taking a poll done by mostly armchair baseball analysts so seriously.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I think you're right
that some here overrate him. He has stood out among prospects the last few years almost by default, so perhaps some have too high an expectation.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
ok
i agree with that although thats no slight as our system is very deep right now, however he ranked a little higher than he should have for two reasons, one, he had a string of nice starts in the majors as stated before, and two he is the first young homegrown pitcher in some time to make it to the majors and not look completely lost. Take it for what its worth, but that does and should mean something… hope.
What with all the stats you were showing it was a bit misleading and I still maintain that there is plenty of time for him to develop and progress into a #2. I dont know if he will ever make that or if his best case scenario is an innings eating quality 3, but I dont know of anyone who ever said that he was or would be a #1 and if they were/did then they are deluded.
I'm sorry my parents never had me sarcamsized.
If he is top 30 in our system right now
he is pretty good. With that in mind, who cares if he is 5 15 or 25?
i like how you are talking about yourself in this post
you liked DVD, then you thought they were overrated…
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
but
at least you are learning. i only like pointing this out because you were so adamant earlier this calendar year that we had overrated all of our pitching prospects but you clearly aren’t the worst offender. won’t bring it up again – until you are so adamant about some other opinion. :)
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
What do 'ya do?
eom
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley
you say that just because you do well in a couple of starts does make you good
yet you still analyze every start. he WAS hurt in that A’s game and it was pretty obvious because he was throwing 86 mph.
He has great off speed stuff and a low 90s fastball while he is only 22 in the MLB so i wouldnt say he his overrated.
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
you missed the complete point of this post
he is overrated as our #3 starter.
plain and simple.
if he keeps his prospect status i guarantee you that none of the other “big” prospect ranking systems out there (BP, BA, minorleagueball, etc) will have him in the rangers top 3 or 4 prospects.
wheere do i say because you do well in a few starts you are good? are you talking about when i compare him at 18-20 to kiker, main, beavan, harrison?
you yourself think hes a ”#2” as you have stated before in posts and in your signature.
and no, he doesnt have “great” offspeed stuff. to me “great” for example is something like zumayas FB before he got hurt, krod slider, liriaio slider before he got hurt, etc. great= plus plus. does he have GOOD offspeed stuff? if he does he sure got hammered using it at AAA…
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
okay, he has good off-speed stuff
no one in our system is gonna have liriano stuff. he is a #2 for us but for most teams he would be a #3. Wait until he gets at least 10 starts before you call him overrated.
its also pretty hard to say main or beavan are higher up than he is because they are only in single A but as far as ceiling goes than i would say main has a higher one but not beavan
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
will add danks in there when i get home tonight
if you want me to
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Very Similar in regard to value
Danks in 2006 was ranked 59 by Baseball America
Hurley in 2008 was ranked 77 by Baseball America
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
difference
Danks:
2004: 80
2005: 59
2006: 59
2007: 56
Hurley:
2008: 68
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not sure what that proves...
"Sooner or later, prospects kill you, because you hang onto them." - Greggo, 11/22/2005
danks
was ranked for 4 years in a row, much more highly though of than hurley who was ranked high for (one) year based mostly on a good run at AA, not AAA
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions
A Favor for an Out of Towner
Guys,
After growing up on this team, I now live out of market and have not had a chance to see most of the young guys pitch this season. This forum is filled with knowledgable baseball people who have seen guys like Hunter, Harrison, Hurley, Feldman (as a starter) and Mendoza pitch this season and in some cases in the past at various levels on the farm. I would really appreciate a quick scouting report on these guys (pitches, presence, etc), and if possible, how their stuff this year varies from years past.
Any insight on any of these guys would be great for me.
I don't really see Hurley as overrated.
He’s 22 and getting his first taste of the majors. At times he looks like he’s untouchable and at other times he looks bad. I think he ends up as a solid #3 or, at best, a #2. Only time will tell, however.
overrated prospect...at #3, not pitcher
will edit diary to reflect this
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with you KK
You can look at numbers all you want and create stats, but I haven’t seen anything that looks promising. I think maybe “overrated” is a strong word, but I don’t think he’s going to be a #4 starter. I don’t see anything that makes him different from Josh Rupe, other than maybe a livelier fastball.
by aggierangerfan00 on Aug 13, 2008 2:59 PM CDT reply actions
well i would be happy if he was as good as rupe
only healthier. Those really are two good pitchers and other than FF and cj, the best two young pitchers on our major league roster. Harrison, hunter, madrigal may all develop into good pitchers, but right now talent wise those are some of our top young ml ready pitchers.
I'm sorry my parents never had me sarcamsized.
fwiw
I could see Hurley being the #5 prospect. I wouldn’t rate anyone lower than AA above him with the possible exception of Smoak.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
that i can understand
again
feliz
davis
andrus
and then smoak/maxram/hurley
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
thats at least understandable
even if i rank him somewhat lower lol…but ahead of maxram? smoak?
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
lol
Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark
by knockoutking on Aug 13, 2008 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Knockout....
Do me a favor… looking at the first four starts… because in all reality, that’s all we have to go on with Hurley…. compare the high schoolers in the 04 draft with Hurley…. particularly Hughes and Bailey.
You are trying to throw things in the faces of people with OPINIONS. You are entitled to yours and others are entitled to theirs.
Maybe Hurley isn’t the best prospect in the system. Hurley, right now, is the best young, MLB ready pitcher in the Texas Rangers organization in MY opinion and, to be honest, many others. He definetly ranks in the top two PITCHING prospects in the organization. There is no denying that. How in the world does that make him overrated?
Hurley did a great job through the four games he was healthy. He sported a 3.5 ERA WHEN HE WAS HEALTHY. Even if he touted a 4.25-4.50ERA in his first big league season, that would still be damn good for his first season and would give Ranger fans lots of hope in the development of young players. I hope you agree.
Many people project him as a solid #3, a ceiling of #2. Many people see Padilla as a solid #2, would you be happy if Hurley filled into a Padilla type pitcher? Maybe a Kyle Lohse?
Hurley
His problem is mistake pitches. For the most part, he locates the fairly average-to-slightly above average (depending on the velocity) fastball well, the slider murders right handed batters, and from what I can see, the change-up is still work in-progress (he can’t command it consistently), but it has the potential to be really nasty. When you look at his numbers, you can see this: high HR rate, high K. This is reasonable given his stuff. The fastball doesn’t sink, and it doesn’t have enough velocity or movement to overpower hitters, so it will get hit a bunch if he leaves it in the middle of the plate. The slider looks like the fastball, so it gets swing and misses; the changeup tries to look like the fastball, and gets swing and misses when it succeeds.
If he wants to stick, he needs to minimize the mistake pitches and shore up the changeup. If he can do one of the 2, he should be an inning-eater type with mediocre results. If he can do both, he will be really good, and if he can’t do either, I don’t think he’ll stay around.
I really think it's simple...
Some are overrating him because they hope he can be a good pitcher on team that is starving for quality pitching. I think many Rangers fans just keep their fingers crossed with every pitching prospect that is coming up hoping and praying that he could finally be the one. That quality young pitcher to lead the staff in the future.
I think realistically that he could be a strong 3/4 rotation guy. A lot would have to go right for him to be a quality #2 guy in the majors, but who knows, I think the Rangers have a few pitching breaks coming their way from the baseball gods. Or they should at least.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
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